"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Saturday, January 23, 2016

MU 192nd Best Team in US Without Fischer; Fischer Deserves All-Big East

Luke Fischer elevates Marquette from being the 192nd best team in basketball to being the 96th best team according to the Value Add team rankings.

Nat'lBig EastOffDefValue Add
45Seton Hall25.49-7.232.69
192MU w/o Fischer12.57-5.9618.53
282St. John's7.79-1.158.94

MU's Offensive Efficiency Rating of 101.0 points per 100 trips at www.kenpom.com would be 93.57 if Fischer were not on the team - meaning MU would nudge out Alabama State (who beat Buzz) as the 325th best offense in the country without Fischer's 7.43 Offensive Value Add.

I focus on this not to state the obvious that the very inexperienced team is struggling - but rather to point out that if we are going to base All-Big East voting on how much each player improves his team - his Value Add in my terms - then Fischer should be the All-Big East center.

I feel like I am flashing back to trying to convince people early in Jae Crowder's senior season that he was BY FAR Marquette's best player, only to have people push back. Fischer is not Crowder, BUT he is the second Value Add Top 100 player we have had since Crowder. The one thing I always beg readers is to look at the mistakes - missed shots and turnovers - as much as you look at the positive items, and in the last four games Fischer has been astoundingly good on both fronts.

Value AddLast 4 GamesMade ShotsMissed ShotsAssistsTurnovers
91Fischer, Luke 18774
328Ellenson, Henry 2324613

We do not focus on assists to turnovers for big men as we do for guards, but the number of times a big man can kick the ball back out for a three-pointer versus being stripped once catching the ball is huge. Fischer is almost 2-to-1 at 7-to-4, while we see how the great Ellenson is the reverse during those four games with six assists and 13 turnovers. This is just freshman stuff - it will all be cured so that he can maximize his incredible talent, but right now he is a freshman.

Ellenson's shooting has improved during the four games - during which time his eFG% is over 50% even while his overall FG% is slightly under by one shot. However, can we focus on the fact that Fischer has missed SEVEN shots in four games. He is shooting 72% against four Big East teams - unbelievable.

Fischer is in the Top 100 - worth 6.39 points to Marquette's victory margin - and he is now the sixth most valuable player in the Big East and passed Daniel Ochefu as the top center in the conference. He deserves All-Big East recognition, but that is really hard to get when you have a more talented teammate like Ellenson and a slumping team that is struggling to stay in the Top 100 of 351 teams while you are staying in the top 100 of 4000+ players.

Ellenson currently ranks as the top freshman in the conference at 328th overall. He would lead the All-Freshman Big East team comprised of Villanovas Mikal Bridges (330th) and Jalen Brunson (437th), Creighton's Khyri Thomas (539th) and 6-foot-11 Yankuba Sima (583rd), who will not be on the court tonight for St. John's due to a fractured hand.

Nat'lBig East Top 5; MUTeamClassOffDefValue AddNBA%
21Hart, Josh 3Villanova3 Jr7.83-2.978.1326%
46Bentil, Ben 0Providence2 So7.53-2.197.39
50Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4Georgetown4 Sr8.09-1.217.33
55Dunn, Kris 3Providence3 Jr5.01-4.027.1495%
68Arcidiacono, Ryan 15Villanova4 Sr6.79-1.696.74
91Fischer, Luke 40Marquette3 Jr7.43-0.836.39
328Ellenson, Henry 13Marquette1 Fr3.02-2.514.592%
541Cohen, Sandy 5Marquette2 So3.35-0.853.59
647Wilson, Duane 1Marquette2 So2.91-0.573.18
964Johnson, JaJuan 23Marquette3 Jr1.38-0.912.28
1096Cheatham, Haanif 25Marquette1 Fr1.43-0.361.98
1357Carter, Traci 21Marquette1 Fr0-1.11.48
1524Ellenson, Wally 22Marquette3 Jr0.37-0.411.23
1907Anim, Sacar 2Marquette1 Fr0.110.390.74
2021Heldt, Matt 12Marquette1 Fr00.360.7

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