"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Only 3 BE Players Possess Ball More than Ellenson; Only 2 Have Higher Possessions AND Offensive Rating than Fischer

Only two Big East Players - Josh Hart and Ryan Arcidiacono of Villanova - have both a higher Offensive Rating and more possessions than Luke Fischer.

Basketball on Paper ran groundbreaking studies showing how much players' Offensive Ratings dropped the more they possessed the ball. Theoretically someone who only shot if they were left alone for a wide open dunk and did not miss would be averaging 200 points per 100 trips.

The more a player must take on - double teams and tougher shots - the more his Offensive Rating drops (Jerry Stackhouse and Allen Iverson were the first studied).

That is the backdrop for Henry Ellenson being one of only four Big East players handling more than 20% of his team's total possessions (www.kenpom.com Min% x Poss%). To that end his 100.1 Offensive Rating is not even average (102.7), but Value Add calculates that the players that must take the brunt of the opponent's defense are adding value, and thus his 5.48 overall value ranks him a strong but not elite 477th of 4000+ players.

Amazingly, two of the other four players are both with Providence - Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil - and those two have extremely high offensive ratings.

The following is a list of all Big East players handling at least 10% of his team's possessions, with Marquette players in gold.

875Whitehead, Isaiah 15Seton Hall22.5%97.42.87-0.803.63
31Dunn, Kris 3Providence22.1%110.05.97-4.0610.73
34Bentil, Ben 0Providence21.9%116.37.97-1.7010.66
477Ellenson, Henry 13Marquette20.9%100.12.99-2.385.48
172Jones, Roosevelt 21Butler19.6%117.56.39-1.227.53
150Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4Georgetown19.6%112.56.84-1.077.83
436Watson, Maurice 10Creighton19.1%114.45.66-0.115.71
179Garrett, Billy 5DePaul18.7%114.47.630.087.47
9998Mussini, Federico 4St. John's18.0%90.40.06-0.010.08
387Carrington, Khadeen 0Seton Hall17.6%105.34.73-1.285.95
236Bluiett, Trevon 5Xavier17.1%111.54.99-1.826.95
300Bullock, Rodney 5Providence17.1%108.64.26-2.036.42
258Henry, Myke 4DePaul16.5%110.25.58-1.116.82
713Dunham, Kellen 24Butler16.5%115.34.920.754.25
14Hart, Josh 3Villanova16.4%126.18.03-2.7611.80
994Wilson, Duane 1Marquette15.7%101.82.71-0.563.23
1039Johnson, Durand 5St. John's15.4%96.72.21-0.833.10
754Copeland, Isaac 11Georgetown15.3%104.93.40-0.654.13
104Arcidiacono, Ryan 15Villanova15.3%125.07.23-1.318.46
549Martin, Kelan 30Butler15.2%114.54.39-0.595.08
137Fischer, Luke 40Marquette14.9%118.56.92-0.907.98
552Brunson, Jalen 1Villanova14.6%113.54.63-0.495.06
195Rodriguez, Desi 20Seton Hall13.9%112.05.41-1.817.36
57Ochefu, Daniel 23Villanova13.4%121.05.61-3.359.94
1265Cheatham, Haanif 25Marquette13.1%101.72.25-0.192.41
635Delgado, Angel 31Seton Hall13.1%101.32.58-1.964.64
1598Gordon, Derrick 32Seton Hall12.9%93.70.80-0.851.63
362Davis, Myles 15Xavier12.8%122.65.64-0.516.09
220Chrabascz, Andrew 45Butler12.7%134.16.73-0.247.11
956Peak, LJ 0Georgetown12.7%105.93.04-0.233.34
924Sumner, Edmond 4Xavier12.7%106.22.79-0.693.45
738Hayes, Bradley 42Georgetown12.6%102.62.32-1.784.18
2386Cain, Eli 11DePaul12.4%87.80.00-0.410.42
419Reynolds, Jalen 1Xavier12.4%108.43.08-2.615.80
391Zierden, Isaiah 21Creighton12.2%124.85.28-0.725.94
517Jenkins, Kris 2Villanova12.2%114.94.10-1.005.21
2364Jones, Christian 2St. John's12.2%85.10.00-0.430.44
1117Hamilton, Tommy 2DePaul12.1%98.51.71-1.072.83
1502Mvouika, Ron 24St. John's12.0%
1186Huff, Cole 13Creighton11.7%105.52.11-0.492.65
188Groselle, Geoffrey 41Creighton11.5%132.86.19-1.087.42
1125Booth, Phil 5Villanova11.4%104.92.28-0.562.81
134Farr, James 2Xavier11.4%120.94.78-3.098.02
634Sima, Yankuba 35St. John's11.3%101.12.71-1.854.65
814Lewis, Tyler 1Butler10.7%124.84.450.573.85
1992Carter, Traci 21Marquette10.7%88.60.00-0.900.89
628Cohen, Sandy 5Marquette10.7%111.83.73-0.874.68
1085Derrickson, Marcus 24Georgetown10.2%105.42.35-0.512.92
844Simpson, Aaron 15DePaul10.0%111.73.62-0.193.76

We also took the 8-person rotation from all 351 teams in order of possessions, and tallied the average Offensive Rating and Value Add for each of the 8-spots.

RotationTop 8 Poss/GmOff RatOff VADef VAValue Add
R9-13(4 players total)
Total100.0%102.720.00 0.00 22.06

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