Value Add updated the chance of players making the NBA last night, and the odds are that at least one of three players - Luke Fischer (35%), JuJuan Johnson (21%) and/or Haanif Cheatham (16%) will join Henry Ellenson in the NBA one day. Since 2003, MU has averaged having 2.5 future NBA players on each roster - the 15th best total in the country.
In the days ahead we will be updating the historic database to indicate the last year each player appeared in the NBA. One interesting note in building this database is that steals were not as big a predictor as in the past, while rebounding, blocked shots, two-point shots and the ability to get to the line all separate future NBA players from the very good college players that do NOT make the NBA:
| Average Player Performance 2003-2016 | OR% | DR% | Blk% | Stl% | FTRate | 2-pt % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1500 top players who did not make NBA | 3.46 | 11.10 | 0.86 | 2.23 | 36.35 | 47% |
| Possible players | 6.97 | 14.83 | 3.17 | 1.82 | 42.37 | 51% |
| Future NBA average | 7.08 | 14.74 | 3.08 | 2.17 | 42.09 | 51% |
| NBA Center | 11.62 | 19.81 | 6.86 | 1.61 | 51.65 | 55% |
| NBA PF | 9.60 | 17.95 | 3.99 | 1.83 | 44.11 | 53% |
| NBA PG | 2.80 | 9.57 | 0.76 | 2.76 | 39.42 | 48% |
| NBA SF | 7.01 | 14.80 | 2.66 | 2.09 | 38.90 | 51% |
| NBA SG | 4.68 | 11.91 | 1.36 | 2.54 | 36.91 | 49% |
The 1500 seasons in which a player was on the court a bit more than 80% of the time but did NOT ultimately make the NBA, resulted in the average percentages on the top line.
MU is credited for 1.63 future NBA players on the current roster (adding the percent chance each player makes it), while last year's team is credited for 0.56 with Fischer and Johnson on that team as well. If Matt Carlino were to make the jump it would add a player to 2015.
As we go back earlier, we see that MU's 2011 team had FIVE future NBA players, though only Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler played more than a few games. The first year in the database, the 2003 Final Four team, featured only three future NBA players, but all three had extended careers.
| College Yr | NBA Last Year or % | |
|---|---|---|
| Ellenson, Henry 13 | 2016 | 91% |
| Fischer, Luke 40 | 2016 | 35% |
| Johnson, JaJuan 23 | 2016 | 21% |
| Cheatham, Haanif 25 | 2016 | 16% |
| Total estimated 2016 team | 1.63 | |
| Fischer, Luke 40 | 2015 | 35% |
| Johnson, JaJuan 23 | 2015 | 21% |
| Total estimated 2015 team | 0.56 | |
| Crowder, Jae 32 | 2012 | 2016 |
| Butler, Jimmy 33 | 2011 | 2016 |
| Crowder, Jae 32 | 2011 | 2016 |
| Butler, Jimmy 33 | 2010 | 2016 |
| Butler, Jimmy 33 | 2009 | 2016 |
| Matthews, Wesley 23 | 2009 | 2016 |
| Matthews, Wesley 23 | 2008 | 2016 |
| Matthews, Wesley 23 | 2007 | 2016 |
| Novak, Steve | 2006 | 2016 |
| Matthews, Wesley | 2006 | 2016 |
| Novak, Steve | 2005 | 2016 |
| Novak, Steve | 2004 | 2016 |
| Wade, Dwyane | 2003 | 2016 |
| Novak, Steve | 2003 | 2016 |
| Blue, Vander 13 | 2013 | 2015 |
| Blue, Vander 2 | 2012 | 2015 |
| Blue, Vander 2 | 2011 | 2015 |
| Buycks, Dwight 23 | 2011 | 2015 |
| Buycks, Dwight 23 | 2010 | 2015 |
| McNeal, Jerel 22 | 2009 | 2015 |
| McNeal, Jerel 22 | 2008 | 2015 |
| McNeal, Jerel 22 | 2007 | 2015 |
| McNeal, Jerel | 2006 | 2015 |
| Johnson-Odom, Darius 1 | 2012 | 2014 |
| Johnson-Odom, Darius 1 | 2011 | 2014 |
| Johnson-Odom, Darius 1 | 2010 | 2014 |
| Hayward, Lazar 32 | 2010 | 2013 |
| Hayward, Lazar 32 | 2009 | 2013 |
| Hayward, Lazar 32 | 2008 | 2013 |
| Hayward, Lazar 32 | 2007 | 2013 |
| Diener, Travis | 2005 | 2010 |
| Diener, Travis | 2004 | 2010 |
| Diener, Travis | 2003 | 2010 |
| Estimated 2.5 future NBA/season |
Over those seasons MU had 33 players on the roster who made the NBA - understanding that a four-year player like Lazar Hayward counts as four. The current players add a total of 2.2 anticipated spots based on adding the percentages from last year.
While some teams have many more one-and-dones, the fact that MU has had so many players stay through their senior year and then make it to the NBA has led to a roster that averages 2.5 future NBA players each season.
The Blue Bloods are higher - led by an incredible average of 5.1 per Duke roster - but the vast majority of schools do not see the number of future NBA players on the court as we see at the Bradley Center.
| Rnk | School since 2003 | Future NBA/Year | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 5.1 | 71.9 |
| 2 | Kansas | 4.9 | 68.1 |
| 3 | North Carolina | 4.7 | 66.4 |
| 4 | Kentucky | 4.7 | 66.3 |
| 5 | UCLA | 3.5 | 49.0 |
| 6 | Connecticut | 3.1 | 43.6 |
| 7 | Washington | 3.0 | 41.9 |
| 8 | Syracuse | 3.0 | 41.6 |
| 9 | Arizona | 3.0 | 41.4 |
| 10 | Michigan St. | 2.9 | 40.7 |
| 11 | Louisville | 2.8 | 38.5 |
| 12 | Memphis | 2.7 | 37.4 |
| 13 | Notre Dame | 2.5 | 35.5 |
| 14 | Florida | 2.5 | 35.5 |
| 15 | Marquette | 2.5 | 35.2 |
| 16 | Georgetown | 2.5 | 34.9 |
| 17 | Texas | 2.5 | 34.5 |
| 18 | Michigan | 2.4 | 33.4 |
| 19 | Gonzaga | 2.1 | 29.3 |
| 20 | Wisconsin | 2.0 | 27.4 |
| 21 | Georgia Tech | 1.9 | 26.8 |
| 22 | LSU | 1.8 | 25.4 |
| 23 | Oklahoma St. | 1.8 | 25.3 |
| 24 | Villanova | 1.8 | 24.7 |
| 25 | Florida St. | 1.8 | 24.6 |
| 26 | Maryland | 1.7 | 23.9 |
| 27 | Vanderbilt | 1.6 | 22.7 |
| 28 | Iowa St. | 1.6 | 22.0 |
| 29 | Colorado | 1.6 | 21.8 |
| 30 | Illinois | 1.5 | 21.5 |
| 31 | California | 1.5 | 21.0 |
| 32 | Virginia | 1.5 | 21.0 |
| 33 | Purdue | 1.4 | 20.3 |
| 34 | USC | 1.4 | 19.9 |
| 35 | Georgia | 1.4 | 19.6 |
| 36 | Tennessee | 1.4 | 19.3 |
| 37 | Indiana | 1.4 | 19.2 |
| 38 | North Carolina St. | 1.4 | 19.0 |
| 39 | Pittsburgh | 1.4 | 19.0 |
| 40 | Texas A and M | 1.3 | 18.1 |
| 41 | Arkansas | 1.3 | 17.9 |
| 42 | Missouri | 1.3 | 17.7 |
| 43 | Nevada | 1.2 | 17.0 |
| 44 | New Mexico | 1.2 | 17.0 |
| 45 | Miami FL | 1.2 | 16.9 |
| 46 | Stanford | 1.2 | 16.4 |
| 47 | Oregon | 1.1 | 16.0 |
| 48 | Alabama | 1.1 | 15.7 |
| 49 | Wake Forest | 1.1 | 15.4 |
| 50 | Ohio St. | 1.1 | 15.3 |
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