"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, March 11, 2019

Marquette's Seeding Yo-Yo

With Marquette's four-game losing skid that took them from the verge of an outright Big East title & a great shot at a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament to a 2-seed in the Big East Tournament & a resume that has dropped them to a NCAA 5-seed, MU fans are likely wondering how much worse it can get.

Let's take a look at the resumes in both directions. What does it look like if Marquette wants to get back to the 4-line & is there a chance they could drop to the 6-line or worse?

Team Record NET SOS Q1 Q2 Q3+4
Kansas 23-8 20 1 10-7 6-1 7-0
Florida State 25-6 19 56 6-4 6-2 13-0
Wisconsin 22-9 15 21 9-7 5-2 8-0
Kansas State 24-7 24 46 7-4 6-3 11-0
Virginia Tech 23-7 12 60 4-7 6-0 13-0
Marquette 23-8 29 27 9-5 6-2 8-1
Villanova 22-9 25 16 5-6 10-3 7-0
Maryland 22-9 26 8 6-7 7-1 9-1
Wofford 28-4 14 124 3-4 5-0 17-0
Mississippi State 22-9 21 10 8-6 3-3 11-0
Buffalo 28-3 16 87 2-1 5-1 20-1
Nevada 28-3 18 108 1-1 7-1 20-1

I'm going to go bottom up. If you look at teams on the 6-line, there's simply no way Marquette falls further than that. Even if they take a loss to DePaul, their 9 Quadrant 1 wins are more than Wofford, Buffalo, & Nevada have combined. The heft at the top of the resume is simply too good. Marquette also has more Q1A wins (2) than those three combined (0) & if Buffalo wins their conference tournament, that figure could improve. An early loss could drop Marquette down to the 6-line, especially if teams like Villanova, Maryland, & Mississippi State are able to add some significant wins, but they will not fall further than that.

Looking up, Marquette has more Q1 wins than 3 of the 5 teams ahead of them. The loss to Georgetown is the only Q3 loss on the resume & it's as close as it can be. So what are the things we should be looking at this conference tourney week? Here are a few things to focus on:

Marquette: Obviously, they need to win. Beating St. John's or DePaul wouldn't move the dial up much, but it would likely assure Marquette stays on the 5-line at worst. Seton Hall/Georgetown would be another Q2 win, so to truly move the dial & get to the 4-line, Marquette likely needs to win the Big East Tournament, hopefully by adding a win over Villanova or maybe Creighton in the final, who are the only real chances to add a Quadrant 1 win.

Georgetown: The Hoyas are resume killers thanks to their DePaul loss. Ideally, they will hammer Seton Hall to move back into the top-75, which would add a Q1 win for Marquette while removing their only Q3 loss.

Buffalo: The Bulls are currently 16 in the NET, one spot out of being a Q1A win. If Wisconsin & Louisville hold firm while Buffalo moves up, MU would significantly increase their odds of moving past teams like Va Tech & Wisconsin.

Everyone Else: Ideally Marquette wants the other 11 teams listed above to lose as early as possible to keep them from adding quality wins. Frankly, looking any further down on the S-Curve, there just aren't any other teams that will be able to do that much damage. If someone further down, say Iowa State, makes a run it will take Kansas State out. MU isn't dropping below a 6.

1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-GONZAGA, 3-North Carolina, 4-Duke
2-Seeds: 8-Michigan, 7-MICHIGAN STATE, 6-Tennessee, 5-Kentucky
3-Seeds: 9-Texas Tech, 10-HOUSTON, 11-LSU, 12-Purdue
4-Seeds: 16-KANSAS STATE, 15-Wisconsin, 14-Florida State, 13-Kansas
5-Seeds: 17-Virginia Tech, 18-Marquette, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-Maryland
6-Seeds: 24-NEVADA, 23-BUFFALO, 22-Misissippi State, 21-WOFFORD
7-Seeds: 25-Iowa State, 26-Auburn, 27-Utah State, 28-VCU
8-Seeds: 32-Iowa, 31-Louisville, 30-Cincinnati, 29-WASHINGTON
9-Seeds: 33-Mississippi, 34-Baylor, 35-Syracuse, 36-Ucf
10-Seeds: 40-Texas, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Temple, 37-Oklahoma
11-Seeds: 41-Minnesota, 42-Belmont, 43-Tcu, 44-Ohio State
12-Seeds: 50-Clemson/49-Lipscomb, 48-Creighton/47-Unc Greensboro, 46-LIBERTY, 45-MURRAY STATE

Last Four Byes: Minnesota, Belmont, TCU, Ohio State
Last Four In: UNC-Greensboro, Creighton, Lipscomb, Clemson
First Four Out: NC State, St. John's, Florida, Indiana
Next Four Out: Furman, Arizona State, Alabama, Georgetown

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