"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, October 06, 2019

Very Preliminary Value Add Projections Put MU 30th, Powell & Markus Possible National POY

Click here for the VERY preliminary dump of Value Add Projections for all the players in the system. Due to be swamped at work for a few months, I pulled this together as best I could with a 20 hour marathon day, so corrections or comments are welcome and you can type into Column C on the first slide by any player. 

I purposely just follow my script of what a players value should be this year based on his year in school and the normal progression based on last year's value, as well as rankings of freshmen, JUCOS and www.nbadraft.net rankings. While I have a system for mapping transfers, it is certainly not foil proof, and there are certainly other places errors can be made such as I assume anyone I had down as a senior is no longer eligible, but of course in some cases they are. I also purposely do not spend any extra time adjusting Marquette or other Big East players - if there wasn't already something in the system that would "automatically" generate a projected rankings, then they have a 0.00 for now because that is what would happen with all other teams.

With all those qualifiers, the following are a few tables.

First, in the Big East Villanova ranks 11th in the country, Creighton 22nd,and Marquette 30th for the top three spots. I did not look to see if this jives with preseason forecasts, just ran the numbers with what I had in the system. I also rank every team based on NBA potential, giving each player a ranking of 100 (best) to 1 (longshot) based on DraftNet rankings and then giving each team the total of their players plus 25 extra for each player (so Markus is an 86, which gives MU a 111 which would rank MU 33rd based just on NBA talent.

Team ProjectionRankValue AddNBA Talent RankPlayersNBA ProspectsNBA Talent2019 Rank2019 Seed
Seton Hall3432.9485131286010
St. John's13818.166691598811

Second, here are the Top 25 players that pop up in the projections, and interestingly DraftNet does not have Myles Powell showing up as a prospect yet but he does project as the second best player in the country, whereas they are ranking Markus a good bit higher this year even though he projects just a shade below Powell in 6th in the preseason projections (I did meet with the founder of DraftNet in San Francisco last year and his track record is pretty amazing). Here are the top 25 projected players - and yes please point out any place I am listing someone on the wrong team or who has left.

NameRankTeamValue Add 5HtClassNBA?
Cassius Winston1Michigan St.12.346'1"Sr74
Myles Powell2Seton Hall11.166'2Sr
Sam Merrill3Utah St.10.186'5Sr
James Wiseman4Memphis107'0"Fr98
Jordan Ford5Saint Mary's9.996'1Sr
Markus Howard6Marquette9.835'11Sr86
Jon Axel Gudmundsson7Davidson9.646'5Sr
Isaiah Stewart8Washington9.56'9"Fr99
Anthony Lamb9Vermont9.476'6Sr
Davide Moretti10Texas Tech9.176'2"Jr
Desmond Bane11TCU9.106'5"Sr34
Terry Taylor12Austin Peay9.096'5Jr
Grant Riller13Charleston9.036'3Sr
Anthony Edwards14Georgia96'4"Fr100
Devon Dotson15Kansas8.916'2So70
Jarron Cumberland16Cincinnati8.846'5Sr12
Cameron Reddish17Duke8.86'71 Fr
Tres Tinkle18Oregon St.8.86'8Sr30
Kerry Blackshear19Florida8.786'10"Sr68
Xavier Tillman20Michigan St.8.786'8"Jr
Skylar Mays21LSU8.706'4"Sr
Obi Toppin22Dayton8.646'9So71
Ignas Brazdeikis23Michigan8.526'7"So88
Cole Anthony24North Carolina8.56'2"Fr99
Tyreke Key25Indiana St.8.486'2Jr

Finally as you scroll through the sheet it is organized team by team. If I know a player is not eligible until next season then you see a /2021 by the team name. If I do not have a figure for a player yet, then they have a 0 for now - not an indication that they will not have value,just that they are not ranked yet. Very interesting that besides Markus, MU has two centers projected to be in the top 15% of all players in Theo and Jayce, Ed Morrow is just behind them, and it will be interesting to see if he shoots higher as a true power forward instead of an undersized center, as well as if Symir Torrence is already as strong as he projects - or if the reports of Koby McEwen being even better than his ranking would indicate bear out.

Marquette PlayerProj Value AddClassNBA Rank
Dexter Akanno0Fr
Sacar Anim2.256'5Sr
Brendan Bailey2.096'8So
Jamal Cain1.046'7Jr
Brendan Carney0
Greg Elliott36'3So
Tommy Gardiner0So
Markus Howard9.835'11Sr86
Osasere Ighodaro/20210
Theo John3.556'9Jr
Jayce Johnson3.67'0Sr
Michael Kennedy0
Justin Lewis/20210
Koby McEwen2.366'4Jr
Ed Morrow3.376'7Sr
Symir Torrence3.046'3"Fr

That is a quick summary of a cram job to try to get as much as I could organized and into the sheet. It is not on the www.valueaddbasketball.com website yet because I want a few eyes to see it first to note any obvious mistakes.

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