Denied the chance to celebrate or mourn Marquette's NCAA opener, I spent a lot of time calculating and working up player cards for all 100 teams projected to make the NCAA or NIT tournament. Here is a copy of each player's card followed by an explanation of what each line means. I refer to Markus' card in the explanations just to make it easier to follow, but also note things like Theo John having one of the best shot blocking cards, and Jayce Johnson having the 6th best rebounding card of all 100 teams. After finishing the cards, I played my first Value Add Basketball Game of the tournament today, and NC State rallied to beat Richmond in the closing minute, 71-67, in a play-in game to advance to play 6-seed Penn State in the first round of the East Region.
Here is a description of what each line on the card means:
- Markus Howard #0 - The top line is just the players name and jersey number.
- Marquette BE, Rank: #5 - The team and conference follow (and a note if they won the conference) followed by the players Value Add ranking at www.valueaddbasketball.com - in Markus case he is rated as the 5th best player in the game.
- Play time: PG 41-1 - The player card suggests Markus Howard plays the final 41 of 44 possessions of the game (the game starts with a 20-20 tie so we are playing the final 44 possessions of each game). The top right card is for Symir Torrence, suggesting he plays the first three possessions (44th, 43rd and 42nd). This is calculated based on assuming all players already played some of the first 22 possessions accounting for the 20-20 tie when the game actually starts. (it is easier to have the reserves play first, then finish the game with starters for as long as they can go.)
- Gets ball on: 1(PG) 6 7 - the 8-sided die determines which player gets the ball each possession, so when Marquette has the ball, it goes to Markus on a roll of 1, 6 or 7.
- 5'11" Start,Bench,Out: 29,0,1 - Markus is listed at 5-foot-11, and during the season he started 29 games, did not come off the bench in any of the games, and missed the one game due to injury.
- 11-66 roll and three lines under it - on the 11-66 roll of two dice when when Markus is on defense and the opposing point guard gets the ball, he steals the ball on a roll of 11-13 (of the 11-16 possible steals), never blocks an opponent's shot (21-20 indicates not even the 21 is a block), and he only fouls on rolls of 35-36 (the players who foul a lot foul on 33-36). If he has the ball we look at the right side and he turns it over only only two of the six possible turnover numbers (a 41 or 42) which is very few for a point guard who needs to handle the ball so much. All Marquette players dunk (or in Markus case hits a scoop shot haha) on a 51-56, which is actually a calibrated adjustment for level of competition played over the course of the season. In other words, a player in the American East who had the same stats as Markus would have a much lower dunk range (perhaps even 51-50 or none) to adjust for how each player would play against average competition. On the flip side all Marquette players have a 0 on their defensive figure which adjusts the opponent's dunk range - an average defense but mediocre for a power conference team. On blocked shots note that Theo is one of the few players in the country who blocks shots on all possible block numbers, an 11-16 and then no matter who on the court has the ball he blocks it on a roll of 32.
- 20-sided die result - if Markus has the ball and nothing happens on the 11-66 roll, then you refer to the 20-sided die and he scores a 3-pointer on a roll of 1-4, makes a 2-pointer on a roll of 5-7, draws a foul and gets two shots on 8-11, misses a 3-pointer on 12-16 and misses a 2-pointer on a 17-20.
- 1 to 17 = free throw good Stamina 41 - if he is fouled the 20-sided die is rolled twice, and he makes the free throw on a 1-17 and misses it on a 18-20, making him an 85% free throw shooter. The Stamina number tells you how many possessions a player can play before being tired. In his case his Stamina of 41 means he will get tired if he plays more than 41 possessions (thus the suggested play possession 42-1 above) every roll of every dice is adjusted one against him (an 11 on the 20-sided die would be change to a 12 and he would miss instead of being fouled, a 34 would be a foul because it would be increased to a 35, etc,). Note that Symir has great ratios, but since his Stamina is only 3 if you play him more than 3 possessions his card gets much worse.
- Offensive Rebound if 1 to 1, Defensive Rebound if 1-3 - Half of all rebounds go to the defense automatically, however on the other possessions the dice roll determines which player has a chance to get the rebound on a 1-6 roll. If Markus has a chance for an offensive rebound her rarely gets it (just 1 on the six-sided die) while if he has to beat an opposing offensive player to the offensive rebounder for the ball he gets it half the time (1-3). However, here is where we have a headliner. While most players just get rebounds in the 1-6 range there are some rolls in the game where the "highest on the court" gets the rebound, and if Marquette misses a shot in the game and Jayce Johnson is on the court for a potential miss then he grabs the offensive rebound as one of nine players with a higher offensive rebound number than any player's defensive rebound number with a 1-11. In fact, Jayce's 1-8 defensive rebound number means on the flip side he almost always wins the "highest on court" meaning overall he is tied as the sixth best rebounder on any of the 100 teams in the game.
- The team card for Marquette indicates if you simulated thousands of games using these cards against the strongest non-tournament teams, Marquette would average winning by 9 points 73-64. It also reflects that www.kenpom.com calculates Marquette is the 31st best team in the country, the 14th best offense, the 73rd best defense and played against the 20th toughest schedule in the country. Going by Bracket Matrix, we note that Marquette would be the 9-seed in the Midwest (we ignored the rules against having teams face another team from their own conference and the s-curve and just placed each group of 4 teams with the same seed roughly based on their actual geography. We also provided seeding for 32 NIT teams and on the bottom of each card seeded them in an overall combined NIT/NCAA tournament with 25- to 1- seeds.
| Rebounder | Off Reb | Def Reb | Total | Row2.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Morris #3 | 16 | 5 | 21 | South Alabama |
| Oscar Tshiebwe #34 | 13 | 8 | 21 | West Virginia |
| Austin Wiley #50 | 12 | 9 | 21 | Auburn |
| Blake Preston #32 | 13 | 7 | 20 | Liberty |
| Sam Freeman #32 | 15 | 5 | 20 | Minnesota |
| Jayce Johnson #34 | 11 | 8 | 19 | Marquette |
| Tyrique Jones #4 | 11 | 8 | 19 | Xavier |
| Scottie James #31 | 11 | 8 | 19 | Liberty |
| Trevion Williams #50 | 12 | 7 | 19 | Purdue |
If you want to print out any other teams, click here and you should a list of all 300 team files like this. Each image file is numbered, so to find your team just look down the alphabetical list of teams and corresponding page numbers. Once you know the page numbers, scroll to them to print out the three pages you need and print - you will need to cut each page into four sections to have the 12 player cards for each team you plan to play.
| Team | Pages |
|---|---|
| Akron | Pages 1 to 3 |
| Alabama | Pages 4 to 6 |
| Arizona | Pages 7 to 9 |
| Arizona St. | Pages 10 to 12 |
| Arkansas | Pages 13 to 15 |
| Auburn | Pages 16 to 18 |
| Baylor | Pages 19 to 21 |
| Belmont | Pages 22 to 24 |
| Boston University | Pages 25 to 27 |
| Bradley | Pages 28 to 30 |
| Butler | Pages 31 to 33 |
| BYU | Pages 34 to 36 |
| Cincinnati | Pages 37 to 39 |
| Colgate | Pages 40 to 42 |
| Colorado | Pages 43 to 45 |
| Connecticut | Pages 46 to 48 |
| Creighton | Pages 49 to 51 |
| Dayton | Pages 52 to 54 |
| Duke | Pages 55 to 57 |
| East Tennessee St. | Pages 58 to 60 |
| Eastern Washington | Pages 61 to 63 |
| Florida | Pages 64 to 66 |
| Florida St. | Pages 67 to 69 |
| Furman | Pages 70 to 72 |
| Georgetown | Pages 73 to 75 |
| Gonzaga | Pages 76 to 78 |
| Hofstra | Pages 79 to 81 |
| Houston | Pages 82 to 84 |
| Illinois | Pages 85 to 87 |
| Indiana | Pages 88 to 90 |
| Iowa | Pages 91 to 93 |
| Kansas | Pages 94 to 96 |
| Kentucky | Pages 97 to 99 |
| Liberty | Pages 100 to 102 |
| Little Rock | Pages 103 to 105 |
| Louisiana Tech | Pages 106 to 108 |
| Louisville | Pages 109 to 111 |
| LSU | Pages 112 to 114 |
| Marquette | Pages 115 to 117 |
| Maryland | Pages 118 to 120 |
| Memphis | Pages 121 to 123 |
| Merrimack | Pages 124 to 126 |
| Michigan | Pages 127 to 129 |
| Michigan St. | Pages 130 to 132 |
| Minnesota | Pages 133 to 135 |
| Mississippi St. | Pages 136 to 138 |
| Murray St. | Pages 139 to 141 |
| N.C. State | Pages 142 to 144 |
| New Mexico St. | Pages 145 to 147 |
| North Carolina Central | Pages 148 to 150 |
| North Dakota St. | Pages 151 to 153 |
| North Florida | Pages 154 to 156 |
| North Texas | Pages 157 to 159 |
| Northern Iowa | Pages 160 to 162 |
| Northern Kentucky | Pages 163 to 165 |
| Notre Dame | Pages 166 to 168 |
| Ohio St. | Pages 169 to 171 |
| Oklahoma | Pages 172 to 174 |
| Oklahoma St. | Pages 175 to 177 |
| Oregon | Pages 178 to 180 |
| Penn St. | Pages 181 to 183 |
| Prairie View A&M | Pages 184 to 186 |
| Providence | Pages 187 to 189 |
| Purdue | Pages 190 to 192 |
| Radford | Pages 193 to 195 |
| Rhode Island | Pages 196 to 198 |
| Richmond | Pages 199 to 201 |
| Robert Morris | Pages 202 to 204 |
| Rutgers | Pages 205 to 207 |
| Saint Louis | Pages 208 to 210 |
| Saint Mary's | Pages 211 to 213 |
| San Diego St. | Pages 214 to 216 |
| Seton Hall | Pages 217 to 219 |
| Siena | Pages 220 to 222 |
| South Alabama | Pages 223 to 225 |
| South Carolina | Pages 226 to 228 |
| South Dakota St. | Pages 229 to 231 |
| St. John's | Pages 232 to 234 |
| Stanford | Pages 235 to 237 |
| Stephen F. Austin | Pages 238 to 240 |
| Syracuse | Pages 241 to 243 |
| Tennessee | Pages 244 to 246 |
| Texas | Pages 247 to 249 |
| Texas Tech | Pages 250 to 252 |
| Tulsa | Pages 253 to 255 |
| UC Irvine | Pages 256 to 258 |
| UCLA | Pages 259 to 261 |
| USC | Pages 262 to 264 |
| Utah St. | Pages 265 to 267 |
| VCU | Pages 268 to 270 |
| Vermont | Pages 271 to 273 |
| Villanova | Pages 274 to 276 |
| Virginia | Pages 277 to 279 |
| West Virginia | Pages 280 to 282 |
| Wichita St. | Pages 283 to 285 |
| Winthrop | Pages 286 to 288 |
| Wisconsin | Pages 289 to 291 |
| Wright St. | Pages 292 to 294 |
| Xavier | Pages 295 to 297 |
| Yale | Pages 298 to 300 |
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