"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Marquette Player Cards for 2020 Season - Jayce 6th Best Rebounder

Denied the chance to celebrate or mourn Marquette's NCAA opener, I spent a lot of time calculating and working up player cards for all 100 teams projected to make the NCAA or NIT tournament. Here is a copy of each player's card followed by an explanation of what each line means. I refer to Markus' card in the explanations just to make it easier to follow, but also note things like Theo John having one of the best shot blocking cards, and Jayce Johnson having the 6th best rebounding card of all 100 teams. After finishing the cards, I played my first Value Add Basketball Game of the tournament today, and NC State rallied to beat Richmond in the closing minute, 71-67, in a play-in game to advance to play 6-seed Penn State in the first round of the East Region.

Here is a description of what each line on the card means:

  • Markus Howard #0 - The top line is just the players name and jersey number.
  • Marquette BE, Rank: #5 - The team and conference follow (and a note if they won the conference) followed by the players Value Add ranking at www.valueaddbasketball.com - in Markus case he is rated as the 5th best player in the game.
  • Play time: PG 41-1 - The player card suggests Markus Howard plays the final 41 of 44 possessions of the game (the game starts with a 20-20 tie so we are playing the final 44 possessions of each game). The top right card is for Symir Torrence, suggesting he plays the first three possessions (44th, 43rd and 42nd). This is calculated based on assuming all players already played some of the first 22 possessions accounting for the 20-20 tie when the game actually starts. (it is easier to have the reserves play first, then finish the game with starters for as long as they can go.)
  • Gets ball on: 1(PG) 6 7 - the 8-sided die determines which player gets the ball each possession, so when Marquette has the ball, it goes to Markus on a roll of 1, 6 or 7.
  • 5'11" Start,Bench,Out: 29,0,1 - Markus is listed at 5-foot-11, and during the season he started 29 games, did not come off the bench in any of the games, and missed the one game due to injury.
  • 11-66 roll and three lines under it - on the 11-66 roll of two dice when when Markus is on defense and the opposing point guard gets the ball, he steals the ball on a roll of 11-13 (of the 11-16 possible steals), never blocks an opponent's shot (21-20 indicates not even the 21 is a block), and he only fouls on rolls of 35-36 (the players who foul a lot foul on 33-36). If he has the ball we look at the right side and he turns it over only only two of the six possible turnover numbers (a 41 or 42) which is very few for a point guard who needs to handle the ball so much. All Marquette players dunk (or in Markus case hits a scoop shot haha) on a 51-56, which is actually a calibrated adjustment for level of competition played over the course of the season. In other words, a player in the American East who had the same stats as Markus would have a much lower dunk range (perhaps even 51-50 or none) to adjust for how each player would play against average competition. On the flip side all Marquette players have a 0 on their defensive figure which adjusts the opponent's dunk range - an average defense but mediocre for a power conference team. On blocked shots note that Theo is one of the few players in the country who blocks shots on all possible block numbers, an 11-16 and then no matter who on the court has the ball he blocks it on a roll of 32.
  • 20-sided die result - if Markus has the ball and nothing happens on the 11-66 roll, then you refer to the 20-sided die and he scores a 3-pointer on a roll of 1-4, makes a 2-pointer on a roll of 5-7, draws a foul and gets two shots on 8-11, misses a 3-pointer on 12-16 and misses a 2-pointer on a 17-20.
  • 1 to 17 = free throw good Stamina 41 - if he is fouled the 20-sided die is rolled twice, and he makes the free throw on a 1-17 and misses it on a 18-20, making him an 85% free throw shooter. The Stamina number tells you how many possessions a player can play before being tired. In his case his Stamina of 41 means he will get tired if he plays more than 41 possessions (thus the suggested play possession 42-1 above) every roll of every dice is adjusted one against him (an 11 on the 20-sided die would be change to a 12 and he would miss instead of being fouled, a 34 would be a foul because it would be increased to a 35, etc,). Note that Symir has great ratios, but since his Stamina is only 3 if you play him more than 3 possessions his card gets much worse.
  • Offensive Rebound if 1 to 1, Defensive Rebound if 1-3 - Half of all rebounds go to the defense automatically, however on the other possessions the dice roll determines which player has a chance to get the rebound on a 1-6 roll. If Markus has a chance for an offensive rebound her rarely gets it (just 1 on the six-sided die) while if he has to beat an opposing offensive player to the offensive rebounder for the ball he gets it half the time (1-3). However, here is where we have a headliner. While most players just get rebounds in the 1-6 range there are some rolls in the game where the "highest on the court" gets the rebound, and if Marquette misses a shot in the game and Jayce Johnson is on the court for a potential miss then he grabs the offensive rebound as one of nine players with a higher offensive rebound number than any player's defensive rebound number with a 1-11. In fact, Jayce's 1-8 defensive rebound number means on the flip side he almost always wins the "highest on court" meaning overall he is tied as the sixth best rebounder on any of the 100 teams in the game. 

  • RebounderOff RebDef RebTotalRow2.1
    Kevin Morris #316521South Alabama
    Oscar Tshiebwe #3413821West Virginia
    Austin Wiley #5012921Auburn
    Blake Preston #3213720Liberty
    Sam Freeman #3215520Minnesota
    Jayce Johnson #3411819Marquette
    Tyrique Jones #411819Xavier
    Scottie James #3111819Liberty
    Trevion Williams #5012719Purdue

  • The team card for Marquette indicates if you simulated thousands of games using these cards against the strongest non-tournament teams, Marquette would average winning by 9 points 73-64. It also reflects that www.kenpom.com calculates Marquette is the 31st best team in the country, the 14th best offense, the 73rd best defense and played against the 20th toughest schedule in the country.  Going by Bracket Matrix, we note that Marquette would be the 9-seed in the Midwest (we ignored the rules against having teams face another team from their own conference and the s-curve and just placed each group of 4 teams with the same seed roughly based on their actual geography. We also provided seeding for 32 NIT teams and on the bottom of each card seeded them in an overall combined NIT/NCAA tournament with 25- to 1- seeds.  
To Print Out Your Teams

If you want to print out any other teams, click here and you should a list of all 300 team files like this. Each image file is numbered, so to find your team just look down the alphabetical list of teams and corresponding page numbers. Once you know the page numbers, scroll to them to print out the three pages you need and print - you will need to cut each page into four sections to have the 12 player cards for each team you plan to play.

AkronPages 1 to 3
AlabamaPages 4 to 6
ArizonaPages 7 to 9
Arizona St.Pages 10 to 12
ArkansasPages 13 to 15
AuburnPages 16 to 18
BaylorPages 19 to 21
BelmontPages 22 to 24
Boston UniversityPages 25 to 27
BradleyPages 28 to 30
ButlerPages 31 to 33
BYUPages 34 to 36
CincinnatiPages 37 to 39
ColgatePages 40 to 42
ColoradoPages 43 to 45
ConnecticutPages 46 to 48
CreightonPages 49 to 51
DaytonPages 52 to 54
DukePages 55 to 57
East Tennessee St.Pages 58 to 60
Eastern WashingtonPages 61 to 63
FloridaPages 64 to 66
Florida St.Pages 67 to 69
FurmanPages 70 to 72
GeorgetownPages 73 to 75
GonzagaPages 76 to 78
HofstraPages 79 to 81
HoustonPages 82 to 84
IllinoisPages 85 to 87
IndianaPages 88 to 90
IowaPages 91 to 93
KansasPages 94 to 96
KentuckyPages 97 to 99
LibertyPages 100 to 102
Little RockPages 103 to 105
Louisiana TechPages 106 to 108
LouisvillePages 109 to 111
LSUPages 112 to 114
MarquettePages 115 to 117
MarylandPages 118 to 120
MemphisPages 121 to 123
MerrimackPages 124 to 126
MichiganPages 127 to 129
Michigan St.Pages 130 to 132
MinnesotaPages 133 to 135
Mississippi St.Pages 136 to 138
Murray St.Pages 139 to 141
N.C. StatePages 142 to 144
New Mexico St.Pages 145 to 147
North Carolina CentralPages 148 to 150
North Dakota St.Pages 151 to 153
North FloridaPages 154 to 156
North TexasPages 157 to 159
Northern IowaPages 160 to 162
Northern KentuckyPages 163 to 165
Notre DamePages 166 to 168
Ohio St.Pages 169 to 171
OklahomaPages 172 to 174
Oklahoma St.Pages 175 to 177
OregonPages 178 to 180
Penn St.Pages 181 to 183
Prairie View A&MPages 184 to 186
ProvidencePages 187 to 189
PurduePages 190 to 192
RadfordPages 193 to 195
Rhode IslandPages 196 to 198
RichmondPages 199 to 201
Robert MorrisPages 202 to 204
RutgersPages 205 to 207
Saint LouisPages 208 to 210
Saint Mary'sPages 211 to 213
San Diego St.Pages 214 to 216
Seton HallPages 217 to 219
SienaPages 220 to 222
South AlabamaPages 223 to 225
South CarolinaPages 226 to 228
South Dakota St.Pages 229 to 231
St. John'sPages 232 to 234
StanfordPages 235 to 237
Stephen F. AustinPages 238 to 240
SyracusePages 241 to 243
TennesseePages 244 to 246
TexasPages 247 to 249
Texas TechPages 250 to 252
TulsaPages 253 to 255
UC IrvinePages 256 to 258
UCLAPages 259 to 261
USCPages 262 to 264
Utah St.Pages 265 to 267
VCUPages 268 to 270
VermontPages 271 to 273
VillanovaPages 274 to 276
VirginiaPages 277 to 279
West VirginiaPages 280 to 282
Wichita St.Pages 283 to 285
WinthropPages 286 to 288
WisconsinPages 289 to 291
Wright St.Pages 292 to 294
XavierPages 295 to 297
YalePages 298 to 300

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