"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, March 15, 2020

Soon Releasing Player Cards for Top 100 Teams for Simulated March Madness

While insignificant in the the whirl of world events, I decided to go ahead and produce player cards for 68 teams who theoretically would have been in this year's NCAA and another 32 that would have theoretically made the NIT tournament. I may just play them off in one 100-team tournament once I've made them available (for free as always) here.

While the player cards will take at least a couple of days to calculate and produce, the quick math on Markus Howard is that he is one of 34 players in all of college basketball who will have possession of the ball on three of the 8-sided die rolls (he had the ball 37.4% of the time, and any player with at least 31.3 percent of their team's possessions gets the ball on three rolls).

If he gets the ball and the defender doesn't stop him or he doesn't get a free basket based on a level of competition factor that helps MU's cards due to the tough defense and offenses faced then the result of the 20-sided die determines if he gets a shot off or is fouled.

On a 20-side roll Markus Howard:

  1. Makes a 3-pointer on a roll of 1-4
  2. Makes a 2-pointer on a roll of 5-7
  3. Gets fouled and 2 free throws on a roll of 8-11
  4. Misses a 3-pointer on a roll of 12-16
  5. Misses a 2-pointer on a roll of 17-20

If he is fouled he makes each free throw on a roll of 1-17 and misses on an 18-20. I won't go through all the rolls for turnovers, rebounds, steals, blocked shots etc., but that's the basic.

The way the seeding sets up I would play Marquette as the 8-seed in the West against Colorado in the opening round. However, if I go with the 25-team regions in one big tournament, then Marquette would need to first defeat 25-seed Prairie View A&M and Colorado would need to beat 24-seed Radford, shipped out West because there was no western team among the four 24-seeds.

Just Concluded All-Time Great Tournament

The two All-Time great teams did not do well in my all-time tournament as Dwyane Wade's Final Four team was upset by a West Virginia team they could not keep off the offensive glass, and the National Champs defeated Rick Majerus' Utah Final Four team before losing by a point to the historic 1966 West Texas team, which then went all the way to the Elite 8.

Wade's team was explosive but had one of the worst few defensive teams of the 96 all-time greats, while the 1977 National Champs had one of the best few defensive teams.

We just finished playing off this All-Time March Madness tournament (with Bill Walton's UCLA beating Michael Jordan's UNC in the final) when the 2020 March Madness was cancelled. We plan to make playing cards for the 100 teams that would have made March Madness based on the following criteria:

1) Conference Champions to NCAA: If a team had already won their conference tournament ("Tourn"), or was the team still alive in their tournament with the highest www.kenpom.com rating ("Top") they were considered the automatic qualifier to the NCAA from their conference.

2) Regular Season Champ Gets at Least NIT: If a different team from the conference won the regular season or even was tied for the conference title (unless the third or three tied teams based on the www.kenpom.com rating), then they are guaranteed of at least an NIT bid.

3) We then seeded the teams within each tournament based on their www.kenpom.com rating. We broke up the regions based on the basic direction of the four teams with that seed, giving preference to keeping the better rating closer to home if two were in the same region. However, as far as actually playing off the tournament I may just combine the NCAA and NIT into a 100-team tournament with the 1- through 7-seeds getting a first round bye and the 8-seeds vs. 25-seeds playing in the opening round etc.

Note: I actually decided to choose my seeds by going with the composite NCAA Bracket at the Bracket Matrix, and then I basically followed the Barking Crow NIT Bracketology, though I had to make a few adjustments for teams they had listed that made the final NCAA Bracket and vice versa. I made cards for those 100 teams - made on of the tournaments by one of those methods - and keep in mind some teams won their regular season title but were eliminated from their conference tournament prior to everything being cancelled - and those teams are guaranteed at least an NIT bid.

Player Cards Will Be Produced for These Teams

Here is how the teams rank and the regions in which I'd set them up.

Kansas28-3Top B12182NCAA1Midwest
Gonzaga31-2Tourn WCC2143NCAA1West
Dayton29-2Top A104238NCAA1East
San Diego St.30-2Reg MWC61110NCAA2West
Michigan St.22-9Top B1071013NCAA2South
Ohio St.21-10B1081319NCAA2Midwest
West Virginia21-10B1210673NCAA3East
Creighton24-7Top BE12378NCAA3West
Houston23-8Top Amer142221NCAA4South
Florida St.26-5Top ACC153215NCAA4East
Oregon24-7Top P1217676NCAA5West
Seton Hall21-9Tri-BE202925NCAA5South
Texas Tech18-13B1221479NCAA6South
Penn St.21-10B10264323NCAA7East
Kentucky25-6Top SEC292452NCAA8East
Saint Mary's26-8WCC381696NCAA10West
Wichita St.23-8Amer391178NCAA10Midwest
Utah St.26-8Tourn MWC414948NCAA11West
Xavier19-13BE4510320NCAA11.5South (MW if 25)
Mississippi St.20-11SEC4819119NIT1South
Northern Iowa25-6Reg MVC4923108NIT1Midwest (West if 25)
N.C. State20-12ACC504279NIT1East (South if 25)
Oklahoma St.18-14B12538446NIT2South
East Tennessee St.30-4Tourn SC566965NCAA12South
Notre Dame20-12ACC5741100NIT3East
Yale23-7Tourn Ivy587367NCAA12East
Saint Louis23-8A106211144NIT4Midwest
Arizona St.20-11P126310849NIT4West
Georgia Tech17-14ACC6417116NIT4South
Rhode Island21-9A106512639NIT5East
St. John's17-15BE6610453NIT5Midwest
South Carolina18-13SEC6912250NIT6South
Louisiana Tech22-8CUSA716090NIT6West
Vermont26-7Top AE769868NCAA12Midwest
North Texas20-11Top CUSA7734146NCAA12West
Liberty30-4Tourn ASun7910769NCAA13East
Akron24-7Top MAC8266103NCAA13Midwest
New Mexico St.25-6Top WAC9180113NCAA13West
Stephen F. Austin28-3Tourn Slnd10015275NCAA13South
UC Irvine21-11Top BW106121109NCAA14West
Bradley23-11Tourn MVC10792134NCAA14Midwest
Hofstra26-8Tourn CAA10862187NCAA14East
Belmont26-7Tourn OVC10997132NCAA14South
North Dakota St.25-8Tourn Sum11291148NCAA15Midwest (W if 25)
Colgate25-9Reg Pat11886182NIT7East
South Dakota St.22-10Co-Sum11946241NIT7West (MW if 25)
Eastern Washington23-8Top BSky124120142NCAA15West
Little Rock21-10Top SB12999184NCAA15South
Wright St.25-7Reg Horz133132157NIT7Midwest
Murray St.23-9Co-OVC136178110NIT8West
Winthrop24-10Tourn BSth140136169NCAA15East
Northern Kentucky23-9Tourn Horz144191120NCAA16South
Siena20-10Top MAAC14587236NCAA16East
Boston University21-13Tourn Pat159166186NCAA16.5Midwest
North Florida21-12Co-ASun16631324NIT8South
Radford21-11Co-BSth186118272NIT8East (West if 25)
Robert Morris20-14Tourn NEC207212205NCAA16.5West (East if 25)
Prairie View A&M19-13Top SWAC213282131NCAA16.5West
Merrimack20-11Reg NEC227325101NIT8Midwest
North Carolina Central18-13Top MEAC272319193NCAA16.5Midwest (South  25)

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