Go Huggins? WVU win tonight could prove very important to MU

The lone Big East game tonight (Friday) features red hot Villanova traveling to West Virginia, which I would contend could be the most important game of the year that MU is not playing.

Louisville was humbled 57-90 at Notre Dame last night, meaning UConn and MU are STILL the only two teams to win at ND in the past three years. Therefore, MU is now in a three-way tie for second place with Louisville and Pitt (all 9-2), with Villanova (8-3) the only team with a good chance to catch MU from behind. In essence, Marquette has a four game lead over 6th place, because we have the tie-breaker by virtue of wins over the two 5-loss teams (Cincy and Providence) and everyone else has at least 6 losses.

WVU win tonight could give MU crucial bye-bye in the end

In short, barring a collapse by one of the top 5, there is a 5-way race for the four bye-bye spots in the Big East tournament, and my contention is that noone would be helped more by the bye-bye than Marquette for a couple of reasons. First is the fact that our shallow bench would make it very difficult to play 4 games in a row. As one of the top four seeds, Marquette would wait until Night 3 of the Big East Tournament to play a likely fifth seed, and even if MU makes the title game it would only play three times the weekend before the NCAA tournament. Second, I hate to have MU play a first round game against a 12-seed like USF, Seton Hall or Georgetown with nothing to gain and everything to lose – and the USF game and ND’s destruction of Louisville are two more reminders that anything can happen on a given night. A first round loss to a 12-seed could cost MU a couple of seeds in the NCAA, whereas a loss as a 4-seed against a 5-seed would probably have little impact.

If it comes down to securing the 4-seed, then a West Virginia win tonight would actually be worth TWO Marquette wins, believe it or not. To explain why this is, let’s look at the final standings assuming the results at www.kenpom.com played out the rest of the year:

Projected final records and seeds

1.UConn 16-2
2. Louisville 14-4 (beat Pitt to win tie-breaker)
3. Pitt 14-4
4. MARQUETTE 13-5 (if MU matches Nova's win over Pitt, then MUs sweep of WVU and WVUs sweep of Nova would give MU the tie-breaker)
5. Nova 13-5
6. WVU 11-7
7. Syracuse 10-8
8. Providence 9-9 (swept both from Cincy to get tie-breaker)
9. Cincinnati 9-9
10. Notre Dame 8-10 (beat Gtown to win tie-breaker)
11. Gtown 8-10
12. Seton Hall 7-11
13. St. John’s 5-13 (best USF to win tie-breaker)
14. USF 5-13
15. Rutgers 3-15
16. DePaul 1-17

As you can see, most of the tie-breakers would be settled by head-to-head games – Louisville beat Pitt and would get the 2-seed, Providence beat Cincy both times and would get the 8-seed, ND beat Georgetown and would get the 10-seed, and SJU beat USF and would get the 13-seed.

However, Villanova and Marquette split, so if they were to end in a tie for the 4th spot, whether it be at 13-5 or 15-3, then the Big East tie-breaker starts comparing the two teams to the highest ranked team. If MU can beat Pitt, admittedly a big IF but one I have a good feeling about, then the tie-breaker could go through the first three teams and end up going to the next highest seed BEHIND the MU Villanova tie - in this case West Virginia. There is another funny caveat here, which is a team only wins that tie-breaker if they SWEPT the next highest team and the team tied with them WAS SWEPT by that same team. So if West Virginia were to win tonight, and www.kenpom.com has them with a 5-point edge on their home court, then the tie-breaker would go to Marquette because we beat WVU and WVU would have beaten Nova in their only game – advantage MU and we get the extra night off. (note - this paragraph was edited from the original post thanks to a good catch by Scottieduntknow on a scenario mistake.)

So a West Virginia win tonight would not only give us a 1 ½ game lead over Villanova in the standings, but most likely give us the tie-breaker meaning we really had a 2 game lead.

Nova win gets them tie-breaker AND within ½ game of MU

However, if Nova wins tonight, then they pull within a ½ game of Marquette, with an easier schedule the rest of the way AND they would probably own the tie-breaker no matter how the rest of the teams finished from 6th to 16th.

The problem with that scenario is we would no longer have an advantage against Nova with West Virginia as a mutual opponent (both 1-0). The tie-breaker would continue going through the 7th, then 8th, then 9th place team, etc. If Nova loses against Syracuse they would be 1-1 against them, so our game against Syracuse wouldn’t matter for tie-breaking purposes because unless one team SWEEPS the common opponent and the other IS SWEPT, the tie-breaker does not kick in and you go to the next highest team for the same comparison.

It is quite possible MU and Nova will have beaten every team until we get to USF, giving Nova the crucial extra bye day.

There are a couple of other scenarios that give us the tie-breaker over Nova, such as Nova losing at home to Gtown and us completing the sweep at Gtown, or Nova losing at ND and ND finishing higher than Gtown in the standings, but the bottom line is, the most likely determiner of a tie-breaker between MU and Nova will be whether or not Nova beats West Virginia tonight.

Not giving up on beating UConn or Lville either

This is not to indicate I am conceding MU losing at Louisville or at home to UConn. But based on the last few years and matchups, I have a better feel for our chances against Pitt. I actually already have good seats and plane tickets to Pitt, as well as to Milwaukee for UConn, and haven’t ruled out making the 7 hour Sunday drive up to Louisville March 1. But I still remember being mathematically eliminated from a 4-seed last year before our last game, and a West Virginia win tonight could give some nice extra cushion and make sure we have a shot in the Big East tourney, and are rested up for the NCAA run.

After the strange feeling of cheering along with the Fighting Irish last night, I guess I can root for Huggins for one night as well. Go Mountaineers!?

Marquette takes on West Virginia

The Warriors of Marquette take on the Prince of Darkness, Evil Incarnate, and a damn fine basketball coach today. I guess that the West Virginia's team will actually play as well. West Virginia is the #2 team according to the Pomeroy rankings, which presently makes them even more dangerous than last year.

Unlike the matchup last year, where WVU pulled away in the second half, this time the battle is on Marquette's home court. Home court isn't everything, however, as it didn't help WVU in their last game, a 61-55 home loss to UConn. Game time is an early 11:00 am tipoff at the Bradley Center.

What is West Virginia good at?

• Playing Defense – West Virginia is #2 in the country at defensive efficiency, only giving up 0.81 points per possession. Much of this is from limiting three pointers (#2 in the country at 26.6%).
• Forcing turnovers – West Virginia is #3 in the country at forcing turnovers, where they force opponents into a turnover 28.3% of all possessions.
• Offensive Rebounding – West Virginia is #4 in the country at offensive rebounding, rebounding a missed field goal 43.7% of the time

Where are they vulnerable?

• Making Free Throws – West Virginia shoots 63.8% from the charity stripe
• Shooting three pointers – WVU is #242 in the country at shooting three pointers, averaging 32.1%
• Letting opponents shoot free throws – West Virginia is #242 in the country at allowing opponents to get to the line. (40% on FTA / FGA)

Pomeroy only gives us a 29% chance of winning this game. However, I calculate a 69% chance of victory. Feel free to pick whichever makes you happier with life.

What do we see as the keys to victory (in order of importance)?

• Achieve an eFG% of 55% or higher - WVU usually holds opponent to 48% (23 made field goals), which would result in a loss
• Limit WVU to an eFG% of 47.5% or less - this translates to 26 made field goals (including 7 threes), which is right at their season average
• Limit WVU to an offensive rebounding percentage of 40% or less - this translates to 16 offensive rebounds, which is one less than their average. (At 21 offensive rebounds, most likely view is WVU wins)
• Commit turnovers at a rate of 21% or less (~14 turnovers, which is one more than season average) - At 19 turnovers, WVU wins
• Force WVU into a turnover rate higher than 20.5% - This translates to 14 turnovers, also one higher than their average. Less than 10 turnovers and WVU wins

In an average paced game (67 possessions), Marquette should win due to an advantage on field goal percentage and from the free throw line. WVU should have the advantage on offensive rebounding, and both teams should have an equal amount of turnovers. Marquette should get to the line a lot. The model predicts MU’s offensive efficiency about average but defense worse than average. This will be a tough game, but Marquette should win. The home court will help a great deal in this matchup.

Media Updates

• Charleston Daily Mail has an article with Buzz' perspective
• GoMarquette.com Official Release
• MU-WVU Game Notes
• Rosiak has his blog preview of the game

Since SOMEBODY has to give you the bad news . . .

At the start of the day, MU had never won at Morgantown, losing on both previous trips--dropping a 78-76 loss in 1995, and a 104-85 decision two years ago. MU did nothing to change that record today, dropping a 79-64 decision at the hands of Bob Huggins' Mounaineers.

For most of the game, it looked like this one had the makings of a classic, with each team making well-timed runs to build or retake a lead, which ranged from an early 10 point West Virginia advantage to a 3 point MU margin midway through the 2nd half.

But as with the Syracuse game last season, after playing even for much of the game, MU seemingly ran out of gas with about 6 minutes to play.

With a slim 53 - 50, Alex Ruoff hit one of his 5 treys with 6:28 to go, and that appeared to be the nail in the coffin for Marquette. The Mountaineers used that trey to start a 13-4 run, extending their lead to 12, 66-54 with 2:30 to g0. After that point, that insurmountable lead resulted in a parade to the FT line, where WVU hit 13 of 14 from the charity stripe down the stretch to seal the victory.

The problems for MU stemmed with the 3 point line--specifically on defense. West Virginia shot 9-18, for 50% for the game. Rebounding was another trouble spot, with the Mountaineers taking a 38-26 advantage in that stat for the game--much of that rebounding advantage built during that final 6 minute stretch.

The game was not without highlights for MU--after a slow start and falling behind 21-11, Marquette turned up the defensive intensity and held WVU without a field goal for nearly a 10 minute stretch in the middle of the first half. FT shooting was the other bright spot, MU posting an 80% performance on 12-15 shooting.

At the start of the season, few (aside from me) at Cracked Sidewalks expected an MU victory in this game. And my thoughts on how tough WVU would be changed after seeing how strong the Mountaineers had responded to Bob Huggins early in the season. I still maintain that this will be one of the four toughest games all season (along with @ND, @UL and Georgetown at home). Still, after seeing how well MU played against Providence last week, hopes of a road victory by the MU faithful were raised, perhaps to unrealistic levels.

MU has a chance to avenge the loss with a quick turnaround game on Tuesday against Seton Hall.

AP Report / Official Box Score / Play By Play

The J/S Online version here.