Majerus Memory Showdown - 1998 Utah vs. 1977 Marquette

My all-time March Madness featured a "Rick Majerus game" as his 1998 Utah team seeded #22 in the West drew the #11 seed 1977 National Champs from Marquette. Majerus was on the bench when both teams beat UNC in the Final 4 - Marquette for the title of course and Utah in the semifinal before losing to Kentucky. (click here for complete free game)

The following is the basic set-up of the game with suggested positioning of the cards and the one sheet score sheet in the bottom right that is used to track the running score and stats per player:

This is a zoom on the actual player cards of the starters.

One trick in playing eras of course is the 3-point play. For teams that played without the 3-point line we do make one in five shots a three-point play, to match the average from when the line was put into place, but need to use your imagination in assuming the guards are actually 3-point shots whereas the big men are scoring on traditional 3-point plays. However, the overall level of competition and average points scored and allowed for each team is carefully calibrated to balance any differences between eras so that all of the 96 great teams should be as strong offensively and defensively per a 66 possession game as they should be based on a dunk range and dunk defense that balance all out.

Michael Doleac's 3-point play with 6:41 (11 possessions left) cut the Marquette lead to 66-61, but most of the game Marquette dominated inside. The next two possessions Bo Ellis (27 points, 12 rebounds) grabbed three offensive rebounds and ended up fouled both times.

A couple of trips later Andre Miller would have made another 3-pointer to cut the lead to 68-64 except that Jim Boylan stole the ball to deny the shot (because four dice are rolled at once and are read in order we actually know what the result would have been if Miller had gotten off a shot). Boylan's fast break, one of only a couple for Marquette, made it 70-61 and Marquette never looked back.

Jerome Whitehead (10 points, 13 rebounds) joined Ellis in doubling the number of rebounds any Utah player grabbed to give Marquette a decisive 34-23 edge on the boards.

Player of the Year Butch Lee added 21 points. All Value Add Basketball Games last 66 possessions, so even though Marquette played at a slower pace that would have likely held the overall score lower for both teams, the 79-69 score was the result of 66 possessions rather than an actual timed game simulation.

The cards indicate how many possessions a player can play before being tired. In a credit to Marquette's history of keeping stats, MU's minutes were tracked even back in 1977 so the players are on the court the correct number of possessions, while Utah 1998 stats do not including minutes therefore their players get the "average" in the game - which is 37 possessions for starters after 7 possessions for reserves (the game assumes a 20-20 score with all players having played 11 possessions when the actual board game starts so the box score below lists which of the final 44 possessions each player was in the game at which position).

#22 Utah 1998	Pts	Reb	Stls	Blks	Fouls	Possessions Played
Alex Jensen	7	2	1	0	2	37-1 (3)
Hanno Mottola	8	2	0	2	4	37-1 (4)
Michael Doleac	10	6	0	0	2	37-1 (5)
Andre Miller	15	2	2	0	1	37-1 (1)
Drew Hansen	13	4	1	1	2	37-1 (2)
Jordie Mctavish	2	1	0	0	1	44-38 (2)
David Jackson	4	1	0	0	1	44-38 (4)
Trace Caton	2	1	0	0	1	44-38 (3)
Britton Johnsen	6	1	0	0	1	44-38 (1)
Jon Carlisle	2	3	0	0	1	44-38 (5)
	69	23	4	3	16
#11 Marquette 1977	Pts	Reb	Stls	Blks	Fouls	Possessions Played
Jim Boylan	7	1	3	1	3	32-1 (1)
Butch Lee	21	2	0	1	1	44-1 (2)
Bill Neary	4	3	0	0	1	23-1 (3)
Bo Ellis	27	12	0	2	4	44-43, 40-1 (4)
Jerome Whitehead	10	13	0	2	3	42-1 (5)
Gary Rosenberger	2	1	1	0	1	44-33 (1)
Ulice Payne	4	1	1	0	1	44-30 (3)
Bernard Toone	4	1	0	0	3	44-43 (5), 42-41 (2), 29-24 (3)
Robert Byrd	0	0	0	0	0	DNP
Jim Dudley	0	0	0	0	0	DNP
	79	34	5	6	17

In the second round, Marquette now faces the Texas Western 1966 team (now UTEP) that featured the first team to start five black players in a national championship - the team that fittingly upset Adolph Rupp - Al McGuire's hated rival who split four tournament games between the two. The two teams are on the opposite side of the bracket of Bill Walton's 1972 UCLA team - my No. 1 overall seed.

Majerus Breakthrough in Game

Rick Majerus coached two of the great defensive teams in the game - he was an assistant for the 1977 Marquette champions whose dunk range is a mediocre 51-50 (meaning no automatic dunks vs the average 51-53) and was head coach for 1998 Utah which had the same 51-50 dunk range. However, on defense Marquette had perhaps the greatest on-ball defense (everything except blocked shots, steals, and defensive rebounds) in the entire game with a -11 adjustment on opponent's dunks, and Utah was also excellent a -5.

The first step you always take in a game is to adjust the Offenses dunk range by the defenses adjustment, so this would give Marquette a 51-45 and Utah a 51-39. In the past I had always simply upped the lower team to 51-50 (no dunks) meaning Utah had no dunk range but adjusting Marquette by the same margin gave them a 51-56 - and that is how I played the game. Then it occurred to me - while exactly accurate in the correct gap between the two teams - what I had done is made Utah's offense almost average and Marquette's good (relative to all-time great teams) whereas really this match-up should have resulted in Marquette's defense being stifling against Utah's mediocre offense and Marquette also having some trouble against Utah's defense.

This led me to realize the the truly accurate way to make this adjustment (and these ranges are both already precisely calibrated to measure how many "other" things each offense and defense should do based on their overall strength of adjusted scoring, era, offense and defense) is to leave the ranges how they fall but have a reverse dunk range for defensive struggles that actually lets the defense stifle the offense.

I developed the table below, and if I played this game in the future Marquette would not have received a 51-56 dunk range, but actually their 51-45 calculation below would mean that they would instead have a range of 51-55 where they did NOT score. Utah's 51-39 range would result in them not only have a range of 51-61 where they did NOT score, but also the turnover range of each of their players would increase by 2 (e.g. 41-42 becomes a turnover on 41-44) and each of Marquette player's steal ranges would also increase by 2 (e.g. steal range of 11-14 becomes 11-16).  The following is the new table in the instructions:

When you first set up your two teams, look at the dunk range of the players on one team (e.g. 51 to 53 = Off Dunk) and then add or subtract the opposing team's "adj. opponent's dunk by __. If the second number does not have a "minus" (-) sign by it then that number is added to the range, but if a minus sign is designed then subtract. Find the resultant range down the left hand column of this chart - this is a very important number that adjusts each team for level of competition and offensive and defensive overall performance to make the team as good as it should be overall after accounting for all of the other ranges on their team's cards.

Dunk Range + - Def Adjust	50s and 60s Result	Changes to Team's or Opponents Stl/TO
51 - 66	51 - 66 dunk	-2 Opp Steals, -2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 65	51 - 65 dunk	-2 Opp Steals, -2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 64	51 - 64 dunk	-2 Opp Steals, -2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 63	51 - 63 dunk	-2 Opp Steals, -2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 62	51 - 62 dunk	-2 Opp Steals, -2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 61	51 - 61 dunk	-2 Opp Steals, -2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 60	51 - 56 dunk	-2 Opp Steals, -2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 59	51 - 56 dunk	-2 Opp Steals, -1 Team's Turnovers
51 - 58	51 - 56 dunk	-1 Opp Steals, -1 Team's Turnovers
51 - 57	51 - 56 dunk	-1 Opp Steals
51 - 56	51 - 56 dunk	No other changes
51 - 55	51 - 55 dunk	No other changes
51 - 54	51 - 54 dunk	No other changes
51 - 53	51 - 53 dunk	No other changes
51 - 52	51 - 52 dunk	No other changes
51 - 51	51 - 51 dunk	No other changes
51 - 50	No Dunk or Miss	No other changes
51 - 49	51 - 51 miss, def reb	No other changes
51 - 48	51 - 52 miss, def reb	No other changes
51 - 47	51 - 53 miss, def reb	No other changes
51 - 46	51 - 54 miss, def reb	No other changes
51 - 45	51 - 55 miss, def reb	No other changes
51 - 44	51 - 56 miss, def reb	No other changes
51 - 43	51 - 56 miss, def reb	-1 Opp Steals
51 - 42	51 - 56 miss, def reb	+1 Opp Steals, +1 Team's Turnovers
51 - 41	51 - 56 miss, def reb	+2 Opp Steals, +1 Team's Turnovers
51 - 40	51 - 56 miss, def reb	+2 Opp Steals, +2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 39	51 - 61 miss, def reb	+2 Opp Steals, +2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 38	51 - 62 miss, def reb	+2 Opp Steals, +2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 37	51 - 63 miss, def reb	+2 Opp Steals, +2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 36	51 - 64 miss, def reb	+2 Opp Steals, +2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 35	51 - 65 miss, def reb	+2 Opp Steals, +2 Team's Turnovers
51 - 34	51 - 66 miss, def reb	+2 Opp Steals, +2 Team's Turnovers

51-51 or higher. In most cases a team will have a dunk range of 51-51 or higher. In those cases, every time a range ends up in the range then the player who gets the ball on the roll of 1-8 gets to the basket and scores 2 points. However, if the 20-sided die would have resulted in a 3-point goal made, or in a foul drawn that would foul out an opposing player, the team with the ball can choose the result of the 20-sided die instead.  (e.g. Team A has a 51-55 dunk range, and the opponents have a -2 adjust - on all rolls of 51-53 Team A scores two points).

51-50. Nothing happens on rolls of 51-66 - just play the other three dice.

51-49 or lower. A weak offense against a strong defense could result in a range below 51. In that case, use the middle column to determine a range of times in which the team would NOT score. For example, if the same Team A with a 51-55 range played the 1977 Marquette team, which has a great defense and adj dunk range of -11, then subtracting 11 from that 11-55 range would leave the team with a 11-44 range in the left column, which translates in the middle column to NOT SCORING on rolls of 51-56. In those cases, record zero points for the trip, the player who received the ball due to the 8-sided die misses a shot with the player guarding him getting the rebound on a 1-5, or turns the ball over on a 6,7 or 8.

Optional: If both teams have positive dunk ranges, you can decrease the worse team's DUNK range to 51-50 so roll of 51-66 are ignored for them and you just refer to the other three dice. In that case you also lower the other team's range by the same number. If both teams have negative dunk ranges resulting in NO SCORE, then you can increase the better team to 51-50 so they have no range, and increase the lower teams by the same number so that they have a smaller NO SCORE range. You must decide on this adjustment before the game starts.

Note that if the calculated range is 51-57 or higher, then the offensive team's turnover range and/or their opponent's steal range are both lowered. If a team's calculated 51-43 or lower then the team's turnover range and opponent's steal range are both higher as well.

If you ever had an extreme case when a team's resulted range went higher than 51-66 (e.g. a 51-63 and defensive +8 would be 51-71) then count how many you need to subtract to get down to 51-66 for that team (-5 in that case) and lower the opposing range by that many (e.g. if the better team was 51-71 and the lesser team was 51-52, then subtract five from both to get 51-66 and 51-47.

Markus is not human, then he is...so goes Orlando Invitational

We're back after #mubb wraps up it's time in Orlando and going to break down how it went. We, first, generally meander around how the Invitational went and what we take away from the Maryland game. We also talk about whether some of the "found pieces" on offense like Brendan Bailey and Sacar Anim are flashes or portend things to come. We then pivot to the week ahead, first by nodding at the Jacksonville match up before moving on to the meat of the week, Kansas State. We break down the match up and discuss whether we should be worried or not (especially given how not worried we were about Wisconsin). Lastly, we close out with old but still exciting news, Dawson Garcia is committed to MU and what does that mean for next years team and get a little excited about some potential line-ups. As always, enjoy! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/2mrzu5/scrambledeggs_edit_12119.mp3

Player Cards for the 1977 and 2003 Greats To Whom Markus Will Be Compared

As we contemplate where Markus Howard ultimately ranks among the all-time greats, we finished a massive upgrade of the playing cards for the Value Add Basketball game. A couple of the sheets include the greats that will be compared to Howard after he is done this year.

Having never seen anything like the last two games, only history will determine where Markus ranks among all-time greats. The game (which remember is free so not selling anything here) includes greats from Wilt to Anthony Davis to last year's stars. The links are now in PDF from and four to a page broken down by team name.

Alabama 1977 to Duke 2010 Florida 2006 to Iowa 2002 Kansas 1957 to LSU 2006 Marquette 1977 to Notre Dame 1970 Ohio State 1960 to Purdue 2018 San Diego State 2011 to Texas Southern (UTEP) 1966 UCLA 1972 to Wyoming 1943 Click here for instructions if you want to play. We just topped 16,000 clicks on the instructions to the game, so glad some have enjoyed it. Having just played games featuring Pistol Pete's LSU team, and Larry Bird's Indiana State team in my all-time March Madness, I can't wait to produce Markus Howard's card for the ages when this season is all said and done. The game also measure's each team's defense, and while Markus deserves all the credit as the one-man wrecking crew on offense, Wojo's detractors should note www.kenpom.com now ranks MU's defense as even better than the offense at 28th in the country. In every game but the Wisconsin loss, MU has allowed at least 8 fewer points that trips down the court. The last time the defense was this good was the 2012 Sweet 16 team. Enjoy it, The only teams with both an offense and a defense in the top 33 are: 1.       Auburn 2.       Duke 3.       Kentucky 4.       Kansas 5.       Louisville 6.       Marquette 7.       Maryland 8.       Michigan 9.       Michigan State 10.   North Carolina 11.   Ohio State 12.   Purdue

The Future (Dawson Garcia signs!) And Past (2003 Marquette vs Louisville 2013 and other greats)

The break between games gave a chance to look at the future, with the huge signing of 6-foot-11 5-star Dawson Garcia, as well as resuming my board game of all-time greats with the 2003 Final 4 team playing the 2013 Louisville national champs.

Since I last posted here on the debut of the all-time greats game, we finished the beta testing and more than 14,500 clicked on this link to the instructions and free game. Please give feedback or ask questions at 404.606.3163 via text of call if you try the game.

Unfortunately, Dwyane Wade fouled out with 4:22 left in the game, freeing Russ Smith to finish with 21 points, and Louisville forced 19 turnovers while only giving up 12. One difference in the game from real life is that the game uses a set number of possessions whereas those two teams would have played more. Here is a photo of how the game is played.

If you click on the images you can see the score sheet with stats for each player as well as the playing cards for the starters on each team.

While the free game provides playing cards for 48 teams, I group them by conference. Marquette also lost to 2007 Georgetown 62-74, but defeated 2014 Creighton 84-83 and 2002 Cincinnati 73-62. My tiebreaker in my Big East standings is average score differentials so the current standings are:

2004 UConn 3-1, 71-47 average score
2013 Louisville 2-1, 72-65
2018 Villanova 2-1, 74-69
2007 Georgetown 1-1, 76-71
2002 Cincinnati 1-1, 71-75
2003 Marquette 2-2, 68-73
2014 Creighton 0-2, 72-85
2010 Butler 0-2, 54-80

If you are wondering about 2003 Syracuse, they are 4-0 in my ACC, where 2009 Pitt is 1-2.

The other conference leaders are 2008 Kansas at 4-0 in the Big 12, 2018 Purdue at 3-0 in the Big ten, 2017 Gonzaga and Oregon both at 2-1 in the Pac12, and 2019 Auburn did stun 2012 Kentucky in the closing seconds of the two 3-0 SEC teams.

What started out as a great week for #mubb just went splat

We're glad you're here, cause we really need to talk this out. #mubb got a great win against Purdue, in come from behind fashion,which was great. However, they then went on the road against a hated rival and not only lost but lost in what has become a signature failure mode in the Wojo era. So we talk through the week that was and figure out given the small sample size if changes need to be made in the line-up and/or approach. We close out the podcast with a discussion around recruiting news, specifically Dawson Garcia. Enjoy, we'll get through this together! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/m5xxuk/scrambledeggs_edit_111719.mp3

#MUBB got the win and the Markus record out of the way, now the work begins

Solid, if unrevealing, win for #MUBB in the season opener against Loyola Maryland. We talk about the game and if there is anything of consequence to take away from it. (1:30). One important thing that came out of the game is Markus Howard setting the all-time MU scoring record so we talk about the record and Markus in general (8:00). We then turn our chatter to the upcoming Gavitt game against Purdue. We talk about what we think will happen, what a MU victory has to look like, and what concerns we have about the game going in to it(15:00). Then we discuss that other game on the schedule this week with that team 90 miles west of MU central. That's right it's #BadgerHateWeek, so we get into it and try not to overlook Wisconsin(29:27). Enjoy! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/rt84gv/scrambledeggs_edit_111019.mp3

Let's light this candle! #mubb season kick-off pod

We made it, we got through the off-season with a lot of scars but we're now ready to roll so buckle up cause it's gonna be a long one. We kick-off the pod with some discuss of what take-aways(if any) we have from the secret scrimmage and the exhibition game (3:07). We then tackle our annual tradition of going nearly game by game and call our shots in terms of wins and losses for the season....one of us has been doubling down on his optimism pills (11:28). Once the season has been forecast we then tackle big picture questions on the season like what is the floor and the ceiling for this team and what will make this a successful season (38:12). As always, enjoy! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/i3n6zw/scrambledeggs_edit_110319.mp3

Marquette Non-Conference Schedule Analysis

Earlier this week, Matt Norlander of CBS Sports released a ranking of the best and worst non-conference schedules. Marquette checked in tied for #14 in the country. While that definitely indicates a tough schedule, what I really like is how it is constructed. The best part of this schedule is not how hard it is, but rather how well it is set up to generate wins for Marquette against what I believe will be a harder schedule on paper than on the court.

Considering kenpom is one of the metrics factored into the NET and kenpom had the highest correlation to NET last year, I am going to compare the kenpom rankings over the years of previous schedules to determine where this one ranks. This is also the metric Norlander used for his article linked above. Further, I'm going to break down games by presumed Quadrants since that is where the Selection Committee will be looking come March.

One more note, I will strictly be using kenpom numbers for this. The reason is for a fair comparison. The alternative is to mix RPI and NET numbers, so to have one consistent metric, the one that came closest to mimicking NET was kenpom, and kenpom also goes back over Wojo's tenure for a full and fair comparison. I am adding a Quadrant 5 as well, to reflect the sub-300 home games that really drag on a team's strength of schedule. Here is how Marquette fared against these Quadrants by season in the past, as well as how many of each quadrant they play in 2019-20.

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	Record	Win Pctg	2020
Q1A	0-3	1-0	0-1	0-2	1-1	2-7	0.222	2
Q1B	0-0	0-1	2-1	1-0	3-1	6-3	0.667	3
Q2A	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0	0-0	1-0	1.000	1
Q2B	3-0	2-0	0-1	0-1	0-0	5-2	0.714	0
Q3	1-0	0-1	1-0	2-0	1-0	5-1	0.833	0
Q4	1-1	4-0	3-0	3-0	4-0	15-1	0.938	5
Q5	3-0	4-0	3-0	2-0	2-0	14-0	1.000	1

So what does this tell us? First, Q1A games are very hard to win. That said, Marquette has flourished in the next three tiers, going 12-5 against Q1B and all of Q2. It's nice to see 4 of the projected 6 toughest games in those categories, insuring opportunities for quality wins. It's also worth noting Marquette is a combined 20-2 in Q3 and Q4 games. The 0.909 winning percentage in those two quadrants tells me that's where you want the bulk of the buy games to be. Q5 might be guaranteed wins, but I don't think you have to look further than the 2016 team to understand why you want to avoid those games. The Ellenson team had the most Q5 games and tied for the most Q4 games played and didn't go to the postseason despite one of only two Q1A wins Marquette has earned in non-con play under Wojo.

To get to the full 12-game schedule, I had to project opponents for the Orlando Invitational. Since we are using kenpom numbers, I projected the most likely opponents based on matchups, which led to neutral site games with USC and Maryland. Before we look at the Quadrant breakdowns, here's a reminder of what each Quadrant features:

	Home	Neutral	Away
Q1A	1-15	1-25	1-40
Q1B	16-30	26-50	41-75
Q2A	31-55	51-75	76-100
Q2B	56-75	76-100	101-135
Q3	76-160	101-200	136-240
Q4	161-299	201+	241+
Q5	300+

Let's break down the games in each Quadrant for 2020:

Quadrant 1A: Purdue (H), Maryland (N)
Marquette hasn't won a home Q1A game under Wojo, going 0-2. I like their odds to make Purdue the first, though I'm not convinced Purdue will still be Q1A come March. Maryland will be a tough test at any venue, though one of Marquette's two Q1A wins did come at a neutral site, last year against Louisville. Neither of these games are likely to hurt the resume come March.

Quadrant 1B: Wisconsin (A), USC (N), Kansas State (A)
The first thought I had was that having all of these away from home is tough, but then I noted that Marquette is 3-1 in Quadrant 1B games away from home, with the only loss at Indiana. The advantage to having these games away from home is that it gives a lot more cushion to where the teams need to be ranked. Wisconsin seems like to at worst remain top-75 while 86% of Big 12 teams have been top-75 in the past 5 years, so it seems likely that even a down Kansas State should be Q1B. USC is right on the cusp and could fall to Quadrant 2, but would be a solid game regardless, especially as it would mean a win over a Davidson team I believe will likely end up in this category. What I really love about these games is that if Marquette is legitimately good, they should be able to beat these teams on any court.

Quadrant 2A: Davidson (N)
I think this ends up being a Quadrant 1 team by the time the year is done. They have a favorable schedule and will be in the mix for their league title. Another reason why this is the most important game of the year is because of the two neutral site games above this one. With a win over Davidson, Marquette is projected to play two Quadrant 1 games. With a loss, they would be projected to play Quadrant 4 Fairfield and Quadrant 2A Texas A&M. Beating Davidson has a huge schedule impact.

Quadrant 4: Loyola-Maryland (H), Jacksonville (H), Grambling (H), North Dakota State (H), Central Arkansas (H)
Personally, I think the kenpom model is harsh on some of these teams. LMC and NDSU are both projected as Quadrant 3 teams by T-Rank and I feel have a good chance of ending up there. Grambling is another dark horse to reach Quadrant 3. The positive is that the majority of these teams project to the high side of Quadrant 4. Jacksonville could drop to Quadrant 5, but if they do, I expect they will be the only Q5 opponent we see.

Quadrant 5: Robert Morris (H)
I'll admit, this shocked me when I saw the kenpom numbers come out. T-Rank has RMU 78 spots higher in that ranking and second in their league. I'm not sure where the discrepancy is, but the Colonials return the bulk of a team that went 11-7 in their league last year while also adding two solid JUCO players. I feel confident saying this will be a Quadrant 4 team. Also, it's a good trend to see Marquette minimizing these games. Eleven from 2015-17, now just five projected from 2018-20. Well done by the schedule makers.

My final thoughts on the schedule are that there will be a little bit of a shakeup. I think Maryland should remain Q1A but expect that will be our only Q1A non-conference game. My expectation by the end of the season is that we have five games spread from Q1B, Q2A, and Q2B. I think that's the ideal schedule to bolster wins while also giving the Selection Committee some real quality to look at. On the buy end, I think it's more likely we end up with two Quadrant 3 and four Quadrant 4 games. That's a good way to spend money to get some decent wins while minimizing the number of true bottom-feeders.

Markus Howard Scoring Record Watch

 Photo by Mary Langenfeld - USA Today

As Marquette kicks off the 2019-20 season, one of the most anticipated moments of the season will be when Markus Howard breaks Jerel McNeal's all-time scoring record at Marquette. However, that's not the only record Howard has the chance to break this year. Howard begins his final season with 1,955 career points. Let's break down the scoring records Howard could pass as the soon-to-be-most-prolific scorer in Marquette history goes through his senior campaign.

I will go through these from the most likely to the least likely. I certainly don't expect Howard will pass all of these marks, but I do think he has a legitimate chance at most of them. If he gets the last one, Marquette will likely be spending the final weekend of the season in Atlanta, just like 1977. As the season progresses, I will keep a running tally (in blue) of where Howard is at, with all highlighted sections being accomplishments he has already surpassed.

31 Points -- All-time Marquette Men's Basketball Scoring Record (Jerel McNeal)
Howard will likely reach this mark in one of the first two games of the season, and almost certainly no later than the trip to Madison on November 17. Had he not been injured, he likely would've had this record before the end of last season. ***Howard surpassed this mark on November 5th against Loyola-Maryland.***

45 Points -- First 2,000 Point Scorer in Marquette Men's Basketball History
This is another mark that shouldn't take long. It could come as soon as the Purdue game on November 13 and certainly before the team heads to Orlando. ***Howard surpassed this mark on November 13th against Purdue.***

125 Points -- Single Game Orlando Invitational Scoring Record (Matt Carlino)
Howard's 40 points against Davidson set the single game record for scoring in Orlando, previously held by fellow Marquette player Matt Carlino when he scored 38 against Georgia Tech. ***Howard surpassed this mark on November 28th against Davidson.***

176 Points -- Single Game Orlando Invitational Scoring Record (Markus Howard) and Orlando Invitational Tournament Scoring Record (Justin Robertson)
Howard's 51 points against USC broke his single game record set the night before and also eclipsed the Orlando Invitational three-game scoring record of 77 points by Justin Robertson in 2015. Howard posted 91 in just two games. In an interesting coincidence, Robertson also set his mark against the USC Trojans when he put up 27 points in a win over USC in the third-place game. ***Howard surpassed this mark on November 29th against USC.***

229 Points -- Marquette Sophomore-Senior Years Scoring Record (George Thompson)
George Thompson scored 1,773 points in three years, from his sophomore to senior years. With 229 points, Howard will pass Thompson for the most points scored in the final three seasons. He already holds the three-year scoring record with 1,955 points, and will likely also eclipse that mark this year. ***Howard surpassed this mark on December 21st against North Dakota State.***

241 Points -- Top-10 All-Time Big East Scorers
This is small fish compared to what Howard could achieve on the year, but he could join the league's all-time top-10 during the Grambling game, assuming he roughly replicates last year's scoring pace. ***Howard surpassed this mark on December 21st against North Dakota State.***


250 Points -- All-time Marquette Basketball Scoring Record (Allazia Blockton)
I'll admit, I'm not a fan of comparing records between sports, but if I'm trying to include all the records, this is one of the records. Blockton established this mark last year and remains the only basketball player at Marquette to ever crest the 2,000 point plateau. As a slightly related aside, how nuts is it that last year's Marquette Women's team had 5 of the top-15 scorers in program history on the same squad? Anyway...at last year's pace, Howard would pass this mark in mid-December, either the Grambling or North Dakota State games. ***Howard surpassed this mark on December 21st against North Dakota State.***


258 Points -- All-time NCAA Brothers Scoring Record (Stephen & Seth Curry)
The Currys combined for 4,736 points. Markus' older brother Jordan scored 2,524 points for Central Arkansas. This record will likely fall in one of the games mentioned in the 250 point mark, but it's worth noting that the game after those two is against Central Arkansas. It seems likely Markus will either establish that record before or during that game against UCA. That might be a good time for Marquette to invite Jordan Howard to attend a game at the Fiserv Forum. ***Howard surpassed this mark on December 21st against North Dakota State.***

*42 Made Threes* -- All-Time Marquette Three-Point Makes Record (Steve Novak)
Novak made 354 career three-point field goals. Howard came into the season at 313. Not technically a scoring mark, hence the asterisks. At last year's pace, he would break this record against Central Arkansas. ***Howard surpassed this mark on December 28th against Central Arkansas.***


307 Points -- All-time "New" Big East Scoring Record (Trevon Blueitt)
Since the league reformation in 2013-14, it's Blueitt's 2,261 that stands atop the pile. Doug McDermott scored more for his career, but spent most of that career in the Missouri Valley, so he isn't counted here. This would also make Howard the 7th most prolific scorer in league history and is a number he could be expected to hit around the turn of the new year. ***Howard surpassed this mark on January 1st against Creighton.***

377 Points -- All-Time Scoring Record for a Marquette Player (Andrew Rowsey)
While Jerel McNeal was the Marquette scoring leader, Andrew Rowsey holds the record for the most points scored in Division I basketball by any player to wear a Marquette jersey. Rowsey tallied 1,087 at Marquette, but also rang up over 1,000 points at UNC-Asheville for a career total of 2,331 points. ***Howard surpassed this mark on January 11th against Seton Hall.***

387 Points -- Top-5 All-Time Big East Scorers (Dana Barros)
Dana Barros currently sits in 5th place. He played for Boston College from 1985-1989 and left school as the Big East's All-Time Leading scorer, a record he would hold for 3 years. He led the Eagles in scoring his sophomore, junior, and senior seasons. Barros never played in the NCAA Tournament but did reach the semifinals of the NIT in 1988. He went on to play in the NBA over the course of 15 seasons and now runs an AAU program while contributing to the Northeast Sports Network. At last year's pace, Howard would pass Barros on January 7th against Providence. ***Howard surpassed this mark on January 11th against Seton Hall.***

411 Points -- Marquette Three-Year Scoring Record (Markus Howard)
Howard broke George Thompson's three-year scoring mark last year and would break his own mark again this year if he is able to eclipse his freshman year total of 410 points. At last year's pace this would be expected to fall in mid-January, against either Xavier or Georgetown. ***Howard surpassed this mark January 15th against Xavier.***

447 Points -- Fourth in Big East Scoring (Malik Sealy)
Malik Sealy is currently in fourth all-time. Sealy played for St. John's from 1988-1992. He led the Johnnies in scoring as a sophomore, junior, and senior while also helping St. John's to the Elite 8 in 1991. He was a two-time First Team All-Big East player and Second Team All-American as a senior. Sealy left St. John's as the all-time leading scorer in Big East history, but his record was broken just a year later by Terry Dehere. Sealy went on to play 8 seasons in the NBA before dying in an automobile collision at the age of 30. At last year's pace, Howard would pass Sealy against Sealy's alma mater on January 21st, which is this season's Al's Night. ***Howard surpassed this mark January 18th at Georgetown.***

*76 Made Threes* -- Top-25 All-Time NCAA Three Point Makes (LaceDarius Dunn)
Dunn currently sits at 25th in NCAA history and with 76 makes, Howard will move onto that list. Not technically a scoring mark, which is why it has the asterisks, but at last year's pace Howard would reach this accomplishment against DePaul at the beginning of February. ***Howard surpassed this mark January 21st vs St. John's.***

*32 Made Threes in Big East Play* -- All-Time Three Point Makes in Big East Play (Jeremy Hazell)
Howard came into the season 6th on this list with 170 three pointers made in conference games alone. Hazell never had Howard's efficiency from deep (34.4% 3PFGs) but still managed a ton of makes in his 4 years at Seton Hall. The record would likely be further out if not for Hazell having suffered a shooting injury his senior year. Shooting injury as in he was shot, not simply something related to his wrist. Hazell was shot in the back just after Christmas while recovering from another wrist injury during his senior year. He managed to make it back in January but did miss a few Big East games in the process. ***Howard surpassed this mark January 21st vs St. John's.***

522 Points -- Third in Big East Scoring (Luke Harangody)
Luke Harangody is currently third all-time. Harangody played for Notre Dame from 2006-2010. He led the Fighting Irish in scoring as a sophomore, junior, and senior while also helping lift them to three NCAA appearances, including a second round appearance as a sophomore. Harangody was named Big East Player of the Year as a sophomore as well and was named Second Team All-American three times. He played two seasons in the NBA and as of this writing is playing professionally in Europe. At last year's pace, Howard would pass Harangody on January 29th against Xavier. ***Howard surpassed this mark January 24th vs Butler.***

540 Points -- Second in Big East Scoring (Terry Dehere)
Terry Dehere is currently in second all-time. Dehere played for Seton Hall from 1989-1993. He led the Pirates in scoring all four seasons while helping them to three NCAA appearances, including an Elite Eight run as a junior. Dehere was a three-time All-Big East player while being named Big East Player of the Year and a Second Team All-American as a senior. He left Seton Hall as the All-Time Leading scorer in Big East history, a record he would hold for 10 years. He played for six seasons in the NBA. At last year's pace, Howard would pass Dehere on February 1st against DePaul. ***Howard surpassed this mark on January 29 vs Xavier.***

570 Points -- All-time Howard Brother Scoring Record (Jordan Howard)
The brothers record would have fallen far earlier, but for Howard to become the family scoring leader, he'll need to score a bit more. At last year's pace, he would break this record on National Marquette Day against Butler. ***Howard surpassed this mark on February 1 vs DePaul.***

*88 Made Threes* -- All-Time Big East Three-Point Makes Record (Gerry McNamara)
It's always nice to knock a Syracuse player out of the record books, and after Moten, Howard could do the same to McNamara. McNamara made 400 three-point shots in his career, and at last year's pace, Howard would take this record around mid-February, also against Creighton or Providence. It is possible he could knock both Moten and McNamara from the record books in the same game, or even on the same shot.  ***Howard surpassed this mark February 9th against Butler.***


*92 Made Threes* -- All-Time Three-Point Makes Record by a Marquette Player (Andrew Rowsey)
While Novak has the school record, Rowsey had more career makes including his time at UNC-Asheville. With 91 makes, Howard would not only pass Rowsey, but would move into 16th in NCAA history. This is not technically a scoring mark, which is the reason for the asterisks. At last year's pace, Howard would pass this mark against Providence on February 22nd.  ***Howard surpassed this mark February 12th against Villanova.***

*336 Points in Big East Play* -- All-Time Big East Scoring Record in Big East play (Lawrence Moten)
The asterisk is to note that this refers to conference games only. To break this record, Howard would have to average around 18.7 ppg in conference play. It's definitely a reachable mark, and could come after some of the marks listed below depending on how Howard plays in non-conference play. That would require Howard to average over 28.5 ppg in non-conference play, so expect this to occur before any of the marks below. If he has a season similar to last year, this record would fall around mid-February against Creighton or Providence.  ***Howard surpassed this mark February 12th against Villanova.***

635 Points -- All-Time Sibling Pair Scoring Record (Cheryl & Reggie Miller)
Like the Howards, the Millers overlapped, with Cheryl graduating from USC a year before her brother graduated from cross-town UCLA. They scored a combined 5,113 points and have held the sibling scoring record for more than 30 years, as the younger Reggie graduated in 1987. At last year's pace, the Howards would pass the Millers on February 22nd against Providence. ***Howard surpassed this mark February 18th against Creighton.***

678 Points -- All-time Big East Scoring Record (Troy Bell)
If this record falls, it will have stood for nearly 17 years. Bell played for Boston College from 1999-2003. Bell led the Eagles in scoring all four seasons, was a three-time All-Big East player, two-time Big East Player of the Year, and two-time Second Team All-American. The Eagles won the conference regular season and tournament in 2001 while also making two NCAA appearances during Bell's time there. He had a brief stint in the NBA before spending more than a decade playing overseas. If Howard averages 21.9 ppg for the minimum 31 games Marquette will play this year. It seems likely he will play more games than that and score more points than that, so this should be within reach. At last year's pace, this record could fall at the end of February, possibly on national television against Seton Hall. ***Howard surpassed this mark on February 22nd at Providence.***

695 Points -- Marquette Two-Year Scoring Record (Markus Howard)
Howard's 1,545 points during his junior and sophomore seasons are the best total in history and would be ranked 17th were it a career total. If he can eclipse his sophomore season total of 694, he will break his own record, which he took from Dwyane Wade (1,281) last year. 

742 Points -- Top-25 All-time NCAA Scorers
Not an official record in and of itself, but to crack the top-25 all-time, Howard would have to score more in a single season than any Marquette player before him, but less than he scored a year ago. At last year's pace, this would happen on the final regular season game of the year against St. John's. ***Howard surpassed this mark on February 29th against Seton Hall.***

806 Points -- Markus Howard 2019-20 scoring (29 games played)
Through Georgetown at home , Howard is up to 2,761 points for his career and averaging 27.8 points per game for the 2019-20 season and 21.6 points per game for his career while having made 121 three point field goals on the season. He has scored 517 points and made 75 three point field goals in Big East play.

837 Points -- All-time Marquette Scoring Average Record (George Thompson)
This is a moving target dependent on how many games Howard and Marquette play in, but if Howard gets to 837, he will eclipse Thompson's scoring average no matter how many games Marquette plays. He could set this record with as few as 83 points, but based on last year's pace, would be expected to pass this at home against Villanova. See the chart at the bottom of the article to calculate the moving target at any given time. The total was reduced because Howard missed the game against Jacksonville.

852 Points -- All-time Marquette Single Season Scoring Record (Markus Howard)
To establish the benchmark of expectations, Howard scored 851 points last year. That decimated the record set by Andrew Rowsey (716) the year before, but there is reason to think Howard can establish a new single-season scoring record for the third year running. First and foremost, Howard saw a downtick in his scoring after the injury suffered at the end of the Butler game, as his average dropped from 25.7 ppg before the injury (including the goose egg at Georgetown) to 22.9 ppg after. That 22.9 ppg was also far more inefficient, so with his usage in that span his scoring would've normally been expected to go up (he exceeded 40% usage 13 times last season, 6 of those were in the 8 games after the injury). This is a big number, but probably the baseline for expectations. At last year's pace, this would likely fall in postseason play.

966 Points -- All-time Big East Single Season Scoring Record (Kemba Walker)
Howard would have to break his record from last year by less of a margin than he broke Rowsey's mark a year ago, but this is a massive number. To illustrate, if Marquette went to the Big East Final and the Sweet 16, Howard would have to average over 26.8 ppg to break this record. It would also be one of the ten most prolific scoring seasons since the NCAA adopted the three-point line. Possible? Yes. Likely? No. And if it does happen, it is probably a great year for Marquette fans. This record likely wouldn't fall until the NCAA Tournament, and even then would require an impressive season.

*132 Made Threes* -- Top-5 All-Time NCAA Three-Point Makes (Chris Clemons)
This seems like an unlikely mark to reach, but not impossible. Marquette would likely need a deep tournament run or an increase in made threes per game from Howard, because at last year's pace he wouldn't reach this until Marquette was playing in a Final Four (on the heels of a Big East Tournament Title Game Appearance).  

1,045 Points -- 11th 3,000-point scorer in NCAA history
Now we're getting into the silly territory. This is highly unlikely, but if Marquette had a banner year (Big East title game and Final Four appearance) Howard could reach this mark by averaging 27.5 ppg. In the past 5 years, only 2 players have posted that kind of average, and neither did so for a high-major program. If this happens, it would almost certainly be deep into the NCAA Tournament.

1,054 Points -- Top-10 All-time NCAA Scorers
If he's going to crack the 3,000 mark, might as well swish a few more threes and climb into the all-time top-10. This would put him ahead of names like Hersey Hawkins, Oscar Robertson, and Larry Bird.

1,132 Points -- Modern NCAA Single Season Scoring Record (Bo Kimble)
If Marquette went to both the Big East Final and the NCAA Championship Game, Howard would have to average just over 29.0 points on the season to take down the biggest scoring season since the advent of the three-point line. This would also make Howard the seventh most prolific scorer in the history of the game. This is the mark that I consider to be about as far as I can stretch reality. Pete Maravich did have a bigger season than this, but records were not kept as accurately pre-1985, so this is the modern record. If by some miracle this one were to happen, get out the switchblades because we're cutting down nets in Atlanta again, which is about the same time we could expect this record to fall.

I am going to add an additional category, which is the all-time Marquette scoring average mark. George Thompson is credited for averaging 20.4 ppg, though to be specifically accurate, he scored 1,773 points in 87 games, which comes out to 20.37931 ppg. Coming into the season, Howard had 1,955 points in 99 games, which comes out to 19.74747 ppg. Because of the nature of the season, the scoring average will always be a moving target. Any time Howard scores 21+ points, he will get closer to eclipsing Thompson's mark and any time he scores 20 or fewer he will make passing Brute Force more difficult.

Here is a spreadsheet of how many total points he will need by any given game to pass Thompson's mark. I am starting with the first game and going all the way to the maximum 39 games Marquette could play. The "Points" column will refer to the total points Howard would need to have on the season to eclipse the mark at that point. The "Average" column will refer to Howard's 2019-20 scoring average to that point of the season, absolutely rounded up. So for instance, 41.3 with the 3 repeating will be rounded to 41.4 because he has to be over the mark to be over Thompson's total. In addition, he could easily pass Thompson at some point, then fall behind again if he goes through a slump, which is why the chart continues throughout the year. The average number given above in blue text will provide a barometer for where Howard sits if readers want to look ahead to project when at the current pace he would pass Thompson.

 

Game	Points	Average	Game	Points	Average	Game	Points	Average
1	83	83.0	14	348	24.9	27	613	22.8
2	104	52.0	15	369	24.6	28	634	22.7
3	124	41.4	16	389	24.4	29	654	22.6
4	145	36.3	17	410	24.2	30	674	22.5
5	165	33.0	18	430	23.9	31	695	22.5
6	185	30.9	19	450	23.7	32	715	22.4
7	206	29.5	20	471	23.6	33	736	22.4
8	226	28.3	21	491	23.4	34	756	22.3
9	246	27.4	22	511	23.3	35	776	22.2
10	267	26.7	23	532	23.2	36	797	22.2
11	287	26.1	24	552	23.0	37	817	22.1
12	308	25.7	25	573	23.0	38	837	22.1
13	328	25.3	26	593	22.9	39	858	22.0

Marquette Preview

Marquette Golden Eagles
Coach: Steve Wojciechowski (97-69)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 49.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 39.3
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 30

Projected Starters: PG Markus Howard (5'11" Sr), SG Koby McEwen (6'4" RS Jr), SF Sacar Anim (6'5" RS Sr), PF Brendan Bailey (6'9" So), C Theo John (6'9" Jr)

After a 3-2 start that had fans asking the same old questions, Marquette would only lose to one team in the three months from November 23 to February 23, both home and away to St. John's. They were ranked in the top-10 in the country, Markus Howard was a dark horse in the National Player of the Year race, and things were good in Milwaukee again. But an injury suffered by Howard against Butler and aggravated against Providence led to a 4-game losing streak, all with leads squandered in the final 10 minutes, that ended their Big East title dreams. After getting some revenge on St. John's in the Big East tournament, a controversial loss to Seton Hall and an embarrassing defeat to Murray State in the NCAA Tournament ended their season. Then, with hopes high for the next year, Sam and Joey Hauser, the second and third leading scorers, announced they were transferring, leaving the team with more question marks than answers as the top-5 too-early pundit rankings evaporated.

Marquette's offense will likely start and end with how far Howard, a preseason All-American, can carry them. He is a multi-faceted scorer who is lethal from three and has improved at driving and getting to the line. The hope will be that more ball-handlers will take the pressure off Howard, who is adequate handling the ball but whose raw turnover numbers are inflated by a massive usage rate. McEwen will the second line of ball handling defense and will hope that his return to a secondary role, which he played in his first season at Utah State, will return him to more efficient offensive play. Anim will be expected to take a larger offensive role, but the key will be consistency as he had wild swings in efficiency and scoring last season. Bailey is a wild card, as he flashed driving ability, shot well down the stretch, and is a plus defender. He has the tools to be an all-league player, but the same could've been said of Jamal Cain a year ago. John is more regarded for his defense and will hope that depth behind him mitigates foul trouble. The bench is deep, with big men Ed Morrow and grad transfer Jayce Johnson providing options and muscle in the front court, Jamal Cain giving length and rebounding on the wing, and Greg Elliott and freshman Symir Torrence providing length and athleticism in the back court. Don't be surprised to see a redshirt, with Torrence, Cain, or freshman Dexter Akanno the likeliest options.

Offensively, Marquette has been a high-efficiency team under Wojo, taking and making a lot of threes. That will change a bit with the Hausers gone as the plan is to utilize more two-post sets. That said, McEwen, Anim, Cain, and Elliott have all had seasons where they shot 36+% from three, so the potential for continued three-point accuracy is there. Expect Howard to spend more time off the ball in hopes of freeing him up at the arc and the increased strength inside to lead to more offensive rebounds and opportunities at the line. Defensively, Marquette is a team that prefers man-to-man and saw a big spike last year when their worst defender, Andrew Rowsey, graduated. Running two sub-six foot players led to disastrous results, but Wojo has been able to inject more length and athleticism. While the loss of the Hausers will hurt on offense, Marquette's defense should be significantly better as Joey Hauser wasn't much better than Rowsey on that end and Sam, though a fine defender in a team system, didn't have the athleticism and quickness that players like Bailey and Cain, who will replace his minutes, do have. This team should be better contesting shots, forcing turnovers, and controlling rebounds than they were a year ago, which will almost certainly lead to their best defense under Wojciechowski.

While the Hausers will be missed on offense, there are enough shooters and productive post players to offset, or at least minimize the impact of, that loss. This is also likely the best defensive team in the league, as the added length, quickness, and rim protection of players like McEwen, Elliott, & Johnson have the potential to make a strength even stronger. This team won't look like what Marquette fans are accustomed to under Wojo, but the defense is stout enough to hold down the fort until the offense catches up. Expect this team to be better in March than they are in November, and better than they were a year ago with the Hausers.

Marquette Memory: In 2002, Marquette traveled to Cincinnati with a chance to seize pole position in the Conference USA title race, but squandered a 4-point lead with 30 seconds to play, then followed that up by conceding a double-digit lead in the last 12 minutes in a loss to East Carolina 4 days later. Marquette would go on to earn a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament but suffered a first-round loss. Adding insult to injury, starter Odartey Blankson transferred after the season. In 2019, Marquette squandered leads to Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, and Georgetown to throw away a Big East title. They earned a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament and suffered a first-round loss. And then saw the Hausers transfer. The silver lining is the 2002-03 Marquette team, led by transcendent scorer Dwyane Wade, won Conference USA and went to the Final Four. We'll see what the 2019-20 Marquette team, led by transcendent scorer Markus Howard, can do in league play and beyond.

DePaul Preview

DePaul Blue Demons
February 1, fiserv.forum; March 3, Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
Coach: Dave Leitao (106-116 at DePaul, 191-211 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 174.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 133.3
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 139

Projected Starters: PG Devin Gage (6'2" Jr), SG Jalen Coleman-Lands (6'4" Sr), SF Romeo Weems (6'7" Fr), PF Paul Reed (6'9" Jr), C Jaylen Butz (6'9" Jr)

To start the New Year, DePaul was the ultimate "almost" team. They had squandered second-half leads of 14 points (Northwestern), 9 points (Boston College), and 6 points (Xavier) to lose. Hold on in those three games and they would've been a NIT lock and even had a chance to make things interesting as a fringe bubble team, especially with sweeps of fellow Big East bubble teams that did make the field in Seton Hall and St. John's. Instead, they went to the CBI, where they made it to the final before falling 2-1 in a best of three series to South Florida. Even still, DePaul finished with a winning record for the first time since 2007. Then they lost their top three scorers, Max Strus, Eli Cain, and Femi Olujobi, to graduation.

There are some reasons for optimism. Paul Reed is back and was picked to the preseason All-Big East Second Team after averaging 12.3 ppg/8.5 rpg last year. Jalen Coleman-Lands returns from injury and, along with Devin Gage, give hope of reliable complimentary scorers. Romeo Weems is a top-50 recruit who adds scoring and athleticism. Butz is a reliable presence while Charlie Moore, Darious Hall, and Lyrik Shreiner give them options off the bench.

On offense, Leitao likes to run a four-out one-in motion offense. Lots of cuts and screens to get the top scorers open. Last year that often led to Strus threes, but most of the time Leitao's teams will seek to use those cuts to drive inside, attacking the interior and crashing the offensive glass. With a front court of Butz, Reed, and Weems, there's reason to believe that will work. On the other end, it's tough to tell what will work. Leitao has only had a top-50 efficiency defense twice in his career. His first year at DePaul with Pat Kennedy's players and two years ago. So what made them successful in 2017-18? Frankly, I think it was a fluke. They did well at turning teams over, but in large part because they were top-50 in non-steal turnover percentage. Turnovers were their one real strength but more than half their turnovers came of the non-steal variety. While that includes taking charges, it also includes opposing players throwing the ball away, being out of control, or otherwise making any number of errors.

I really like Paul Reed. I like the potential of this front court crashing the boards. I even think Gage and Coleman-Lands can form a decent backcourt. But this is a team that finished last in the Big East and lost their top three scorers. It's hard to imagine them being better than they were a year ago. Maybe in two years, when the juniors are seniors and Weems has some experience, this team can claw their way up the league, but this year it just doesn't seem possible. DePaul did beat some tourney teams last year and will probably win a few they shouldn't, but any finish higher than 10th would be a massive accomplishment for this team.

Marquette Memory: In every season that ends without a NCAA Tournament bid, there are moments that can be pointed to as to why. In the 2015-16 season, there were three. The opening night loss to Belmont. The James Milliken three at the Bradley Center that sealed Creighton's road win. And then there was the DePaul game at home. The largest lead for either team had been 6 points, but when Duane Wilson's tip in with 8 seconds to play put Marquette up 56-54, it seemed the game was over. Instead, Billy Garrett drove right down the heart of the Marquette defense and Luke Fischer seemed to realize he couldn't make the stop so instead allowed Garrett to score, forcing overtime. Somehow, despite Fischer allowing the basket without resistance, the refs called a foul and sent Garrett to the line with 1.1 to play. Unlike the foul, the free throw was no phantom and Marquette lost another nailbiter, and along with the aforementioned losses, any hopes of postseason play for Henry Ellenson.

Butler Preview

Butler Bulldogs
January 24, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN; February 9, fiserv.forum
Coach: LaVall Jordan (37-31 at Butler, 48-55 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 40.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 39.0
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 60

Projected Starters: PG Aaron Thompson (6'2" Jr), SG Kamar Baldwin (6'1" Sr), SF Sean McDermott (6'6" Sr), PF Jordan Tucker (6'7" Jr), C Derrik Smits (7'1" Sr)

Butler started last year 3-0. They never again strung three straight wins together on the season and never won two straight against top-100 opposition, which is problematic when you play in the Big East. That led to their first losing season since the ill-fated 2013-14 season under Brandon Miller. It was a significant step back after Jordan's initial success with Chris Holtmann's leftovers.The real struggles came in road games as the Bulldogs were just 2-10 in away games, and both wins came over teams ranked 100 or lower in Pomeroy. And as above, that is problematic when you play in the Big East.

Butler returns most of that team that still managed to make the NIT. Baldwin, Thompson, and McDermott started every game for the Bulldogs and Tucker became a spot starter once he became eligible. Baldwin has established himself as the ball-dominant leader, but he is a low-efficiency, high-usage player who has seen his offensive rating decline every year since he arrived at Hinkle. One of Butler's main problems is that their highest efficiency returning starters, McDermott and Thompson, are sub-20% usage players. The only other returning player above 20% usage was Tucker, who was even less efficient than Baldwin. Smits joins as a grad transfer from Valpo, but his usage and efficiency last season was more similar to Baldwin than McDermott. This is a team that seems to prioritize who dominates the ball in an inverse fashion to how they should. They do have the makings of a good bench, with Henry Baddley and Christian David returning and joined by Milwaukee transfer Bryce Nze and four-star freshman Khalif Battle.

On offense, LaVall Jordan claims to prioritize transition and efficiency, but the Butler way has long been slow-down, methodical offense that tries to get shots close to the basket. He hasn't changed that formula. At their best, they want to run pick-and-roll constantly and create options out of that. Defensively, Jordan cited their struggles last year as being due to a lack of versatility. They couldn't handle the physicality of Big East play and often got caught in rotation. The hope is that this year's roster is better equipped for that.

Butler was generally a tough out last year, but they still were out more often than not. In a normal year, the experience gained would be enough to move them up the standings, but virtually everyone ahead of them returns as much or more. Further, I'm of the opinion that Kamar Baldwin is the worst best player on any team in the Big East. He's ball dominant and inefficient. Consider this, in games when Baldwin had a 100+ offensive rating, Butler went 15-4. In games where he was sub-100, they went just 1-13. Butler went as Baldwin went, and if he's not playing well, they are virtually assured of losing. I think they will be better than last year, but expect that simply won't be enough to do any better than another NIT berth.

Marquette Memory: Marquette hadn't won at Hinkle Fieldhouse since 1990 when they came in to face the 13th ranked Bulldogs for a matinee on January 16, 2017. In the first half, everything was coming up Blue and Gold. A 14-3 run to end the half saw Marquette to a 16-point lead at the break and it looked certain the 27-year drought would end. The lead got up to 18 before Butler mounted their comeback, and once it started, it came like a freight train. It took just over 10 minutes and a 35-16 run for Butler to take the lead. Marquette did battle back to take another lead with 5:29 to go, but the Bulldogs finished on a 23-12 tear en route to an 88-80 Butler win and extended Marquette's Hinkle losing streak that wouldn't be broken until earlier this year.