"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Updated 2019 Team and Player Projections With Kentucky, Oklahoma, Florida St. and Memphis signings

As we track players, one fact stands out - Joe Cremo projects as the third most valuable player available and the best hope for a Sweet 16 next year. More on that later.

Harry Froling makes the list of players lost due to signing a pro agent, but the 1.31 Value Add lost was factored into Marquette's 27th best 39.02 projected team Value Add at www.valueaddbasketball.com and on the projected 2019 players you can edit. Villanova's 13.50 point edge over everyone else could withstand the loss of Mikal Bridges (top projected 2019 Value Add at 11.06) but not both him and Jalen Brunson (No. 3 projected at 10.44).

Please keep the updates coming on the google sheet of all projected 2019 players. In addition to 100+ corrections, cleanup of a few duplicates, etc., Kentucky, Oklahoma, Florida State and Memphis had big signings to help propel them in the team projections below. EJ Montgomery picking Kentucky over Duke helps Kentucky maintain second place for Villanova now as they wait for additional players to decide on the NBA.


Rank ProjProjected 2019 PlayersHtClassTeam GainedProj. VANotes
94EJ Montgomery6-foot-10FrKentucky6.80247 Ranked 12, PF, signed April 9
584Miles Reynolds #36-foot-2SrOklahoma3.62Sr. transfer from Pacific, SG
1126David Nichols #136-foot-0SrFlorida St.2.17Sr. transfer from Albany, PG
1292Alex Lomax5-foot-11FrMemphis1.82247 Ranked 144, PG, signed April 4

Of course, this included Kentucky losing two more players since the original update, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Knox signing with agents at a cost of almost 16 Value Add points. Four other Kentucky players worth another 21.39 points are in the system as considering the NBA but still potentially staying at Kentucky; PJ Washington with a 5.65 Value Add, Hamidou Diallo 5.64, Jarred Vanderbilt 5.17 and Wenyen Gabriel 4.93.


Players signing agentsHtClassTeam LostProj. VANotes
Deandre Ayton #137-foot-1SoArizona9.98Signed agent/Pro
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #226-foot-6FrKentucky9.16Signed agent/Pro
Gary Trent #26-foot-6FrDuke7.43Signed agent/Pro
Robert Williams #446-foot-10SoTexas A&M6.91Signed agent/Pro
Kevin Knox #56-foot-9FrKentucky6.77Signed agent/Pro
Drew Eubanks #126-foot-10SrOregon6.09Signed agent/Pro
Leron Black #126-foot-7SrIllinois5.43Signed agent/Pro
Bruce Brown #116-foot-5SoMiami5.39Signed agent/Pro
Lagerald Vick #26-foot-5SrKansas5.28Signed agent/Pro
Deng Adel #226-foot-7JrLouisville5.05Signed agent/Pro
Corey Sanders #36-foot-2SrRutgers4.06Signed agent/Pro
Harry Froling 136-foot-11SoMarquette1.31Signed agent/Pro
Terry Larrier #226-foot-8SrConnecticut0.86Signed agent/Pro

As you can see, eight of the top 25 projected players for next season could leave to go pro but have not signed agents. If a player signs with an agent we take him out of the database, but if they express an interest in the NBA and could be drafted then we flag them in the database with the "/could go NBA" in the Value Add Basketball database and in the "Considering NBA" 2nd team column below. If someone announces they are exploring the NBA but it does not appear they will be drafted, we assume for now they will return and do not flag them.


Projected RankProjected 2019 PlayersHtClass2019 TeamProj. Value Add
1Mikal Bridges #256-foot-7JrVillanova /could go NBA11.06
2Keita Bates-Diop #336-foot-7JrOhio St. /could go NBA10.66
3Jalen Brunson #16-foot-2JrVillanova /could go NBA10.44
4Juwan Morgan #136-foot-7SrIndiana10.07
5Dean Wade #326-foot-10SrKansas St.9.92
6John Konchar #556-foot-5SrFort Wayne9.57
7Dylan Windler #36-foot-7SrBelmont9.54
8James Thompson #26-foot-10SrEastern Michigan9.44
9Luke Maye #326-foot-8SrNorth Carolina9.18
11RJ Barrett6-foot-7FrDuke9
12Carsen Edwards #36-foot-1SoPurdue /could go NBA8.94
13Zhaire Smith #26-foot-5FrTexas Tech /could go NBA8.87
14Anthony Cowan #16-foot-0JrMaryland8.86
15Cameron Reddish6-foot-7FrDuke8.8
16Ethan Happ #226-foot-10SrWisconsin /could go NBA8.76
17Michael Oguine #06-foot-2SrMontana8.6
18Zion Williamson6-foot-6FrDuke8.6
19Moe Wagner #136-foot-11JrMichigan8.58
20Reid Travis #226-foot-8SrStanford8.54
21Cassius Winston #56-foot-0JrMichigan St.8.53
22Jerome Robinson #16-foot-5JrBoston College /could go NBA8.53
23Mike Daum #246-foot-9SrSouth Dakota St.8.46
24Tyler Davis #346-foot-10SrTexas A&M /could go NBA8.43
25Bol Bol7-foot-1FrOregon8.4

As you can see below, if no one left Villanova their projected Value Add would be 72.30, but if everyone considering the NBA left they would drop 29.34 to a 42.96. This, of course, plays well for Marquette and other teams with no one considering the NBA because they can only move up the list with NBA departures from others. Of course, the database will continue to adjust for other signings and departures - and please remember you must put something in column A if you have an update or catch a mistake. I review each record with a comment and then update www.valueaddbasketball.com as well. Here are where the 351 teams rank, BUT it really doesn't work well after the top 100 because in lower ranked conferences Value Add will capture the one player who could play at a high major level and value him more than three or four excellent lower conference players who could not competed in the power conferences.


RnkTeamProj Value AddConsidering NBAIf Lose All
1Villanova72.3029.3442.96
2Kentucky58.8021.3937.41
3Auburn53.796.0047.79
4Oregon53.5653.56
5North Carolina48.7848.78
6Tennessee48.3912.8735.52
7Duke48.2348.23
8Nevada47.5222.3725.15
9Gonzaga45.9913.1732.82
10Mississippi St.45.8521.9123.94
11Maryland45.7014.0231.68
12Virginia45.646.5539.09
13Syracuse45.5015.3930.11
14UCLA45.2310.1035.12
15LSU44.1544.15
16North Carolina St.42.6742.67
17Ohio St.41.9510.6631.29
18Virginia Tech41.524.2537.27
19Michigan St.41.446.6434.80
20Michigan40.9440.94
21Alabama40.8515.1425.71
22Miami FL40.486.5333.95
23Florida39.946.6133.33
24USC39.6739.67
25Texas39.405.0334.37
26Montana39.1339.13
27Marquette39.0239.02
28Kansas38.887.0331.85
29Kansas St.38.525.8432.68
30Florida St.38.1938.19
31Arizona St.38.0238.02
32Iowa36.888.3928.49
33TCU36.7536.75
34Northeastern36.7436.74
35Boston College36.4014.6721.73
36Notre Dame36.1536.15
37Iowa St.35.923.8332.09
38Indiana35.6435.64
39Xavier35.3235.32
40BYU35.287.6527.63
41Providence34.9734.97
42San Diego St.34.938.0226.91
43Fresno St.34.905.6329.27
44Texas Tech34.908.8726.03
45Northwestern34.8434.84
46Davidson34.8134.81
47Houston34.6934.69
48St. John's34.627.8126.81
49Washington34.3313.3021.03
50Wake Forest34.3234.32
51Vanderbilt34.1234.12
52Butler34.1134.11
53West Virginia33.867.2926.57
54South Dakota St.33.8433.84
55Purdue33.668.9424.72
56Clemson33.4413.2120.23
57Texas A&M33.3213.9719.35
58Creighton32.8032.80
59Loyola Chicago32.7332.73
60Georgetown32.5932.59
61Nebraska32.2513.7718.48
62Mississippi31.813.7828.03
63Missouri31.676.9324.74
64Arizona31.5031.50
65Penn St.31.317.1924.12
66Baylor31.0731.07
67Dayton30.753.7726.98
68Oklahoma St.30.4930.49
69Stanford30.2430.24
70SMU29.939.7920.14
71Marshall29.697.7921.90
72Minnesota29.5829.58
73Buffalo29.3929.39
74Oklahoma29.1629.16
75Cincinnati29.0629.06
76UNC Greensboro29.0429.04
77San Diego28.9728.97
78Georgia Tech28.446.5621.88
79Wisconsin28.218.7619.45
80Georgia St.28.054.5723.48
81New Mexico28.0128.01
82Rhode Island27.9727.97
83Belmont27.9127.91
84Arkansas27.8927.89
85Wofford27.716.9720.74
86Temple27.6927.69
87Louisville27.5627.56
88St. Bonaventure27.3127.31
89Connecticut27.0627.06
90Northern Kentucky27.0327.03
91Illinois26.9826.98
92Murray St.26.8826.88
93Lipscomb26.8126.81
94Rider26.3926.39
95UC Davis26.3626.36
96Louisiana Lafayette26.3426.34
97Richmond26.3026.30
98Toledo26.2726.27
99Oregon St.26.2526.25
100Northern Iowa26.1826.18
101Ball St.26.1426.14
102Liberty26.1326.13
103Furman26.1226.12
104Southern Illinois26.0426.04
105Northern Colorado25.9925.99
106North Texas25.9925.99
107Akron25.7225.72
108South Carolina25.7125.71
109Georgia Southern25.6125.61
110Memphis25.5925.59
111Saint Mary's25.4325.43
112Georgia25.3625.36
113Saint Louis25.3625.36
114Middle Tennessee25.3525.35
115Canisius25.1225.12
116Fort Wayne24.9924.99
117Rutgers24.9124.91
118New Mexico St.24.8924.89
119Jacksonville St.24.8724.87
120Hofstra24.746.3518.39
121Saint Joseph's24.7024.70
122Harvard24.6824.68
123Utah St.24.6224.62
124South Dakota24.4524.45
125DePaul24.416.5017.91
126Old Dominion24.4024.40
127Tulsa24.3924.39
128Eastern Michigan24.3324.33
129Colorado24.2124.21
130Radford24.2124.21
131UC Irvine24.1524.15
132UCF24.0124.01
133Vermont24.0124.01
134Illinois St.23.9123.91
135Stephen F. Austin23.8223.82
136Cornell23.796.4717.32
137Tulane23.786.3517.43
138Valparaiso23.4823.48
139Pacific23.3623.36
140Weber St.23.3123.31
141Utah Valley23.3023.30
142Western Kentucky23.2323.23
143Southern Miss23.2023.20
144Idaho St.23.1123.11
145UTSA23.0023.00
146Austin Peay22.7122.71
147St. Francis PA22.7122.71
148Campbell22.685.6617.02
149Wright St.22.5722.57
150College of Charleston22.4822.48
151Seton Hall22.4822.48
152Iona22.4522.45
153William & Mary22.3822.38
154Eastern Washington22.3522.35
155Ohio22.3122.31
156Bradley22.2922.29
157Massachusetts22.1022.10
158Winthrop22.0922.09
159Central Michigan22.0922.09
160Indiana St.22.0122.01
161Cal St. Fullerton21.9721.97
162Southeast Missouri St.21.6821.68
163Yale21.6521.65
164Illinois Chicago21.4821.48
165San Francisco21.2221.22
166UAB21.1021.10
167Columbia21.0821.08
168Towson20.9820.98
169Princeton20.9720.97
170James Madison20.8320.83
171Northern Illinois20.805.8714.93
172Missouri St.20.7020.70
173Grand Canyon20.6420.64
174Loyola Marymount20.6120.61
175UNLV20.6020.60
176Pepperdine20.5020.50
177VCU20.3620.36
178Wyoming20.365.4214.94
179Charleston Southern20.3520.35
180East Tennessee St.20.2920.29
181Penn20.2820.28
182Hartford20.0520.05
183Kent St.20.0420.04
184Lehigh19.9419.94
185UT Arlington19.7619.76
186Evansville19.7019.70
187La Salle19.6119.61
188North Florida19.5019.50
189Louisiana Tech19.4619.46
190UNC Asheville19.4519.45
191Florida Gulf Coast19.373.9915.38
192Western Michigan19.2819.28
193South Alabama19.2319.23
194Wichita St.19.2119.21
195George Mason19.1319.13
196Troy19.1319.13
197Colorado St.19.1019.10
198NJIT18.9618.96
199Seattle18.8218.82
200Duquesne18.5918.59
201Louisiana Monroe18.5318.53
202Texas Southern18.5018.50
203Coastal Carolina18.3818.38
204UNC Wilmington18.2018.20
205Portland St.18.1818.18
206Southeastern Louisiana18.1718.17
207Milwaukee18.1018.10
208Colgate17.9717.97
209Lamar17.9017.90
210Utah17.9017.90
211Washington St.17.845.4312.41
212Montana St.17.8217.82
213Miami OH17.7617.76
214Monmouth17.6117.61
215Wagner17.4817.48
216Idaho17.2417.24
217Drexel17.2117.21
218FIU17.1717.17
219Fairleigh Dickinson17.1017.10
220North Dakota17.1017.10
221Bowling Green17.073.6713.40
222California17.0117.01
223Nebraska Omaha16.9016.90
224Elon16.8916.89
225Saint Peter's16.8616.86
226UC Santa Barbara16.6616.66
227Delaware16.4716.47
228Boston University16.4516.45
229Hawaii16.4316.43
230Eastern Kentucky16.3816.38
231Robert Morris16.2816.28
232Niagara16.2816.28
233LIU Brooklyn16.2516.25
234Boise St.16.2516.25
235Texas St.16.1116.11
236Denver16.1016.10
237Tennessee St.16.0716.07
238Nicholls St.15.9815.98
239Sam Houston St.15.8415.84
240Albany15.5815.58
241Air Force15.5615.56
242Appalachian St.15.5115.51
243UMBC15.4815.48
244Fairfield15.4015.40
245North Dakota St.15.2915.29
246Stony Brook15.2715.27
247Oral Roberts15.2515.25
248Hampton15.2315.23
249Oakland15.0915.09
250High Point15.0715.07
251Drake14.9614.96
252Cal St. Bakersfield14.9314.93
253Long Beach St.14.9014.90
254George Washington14.8714.87
255Navy14.6014.60
256Brown14.5414.54
257Army14.4814.48
258Manhattan14.3814.38
259Binghamton14.2914.29
260Quinnipiac13.9313.93
261Howard13.9213.92
262Fordham13.7913.79
263Jacksonville13.7813.78
264New Orleans13.7613.76
265Mercer13.7513.75
266Mount St. Mary's13.6813.68
267Charlotte13.555.587.97
268Bucknell13.5313.53
269Eastern Illinois13.4313.43
270Chattanooga13.3513.35
271Detroit13.254.708.55
272Santa Clara13.1513.15
273Central Arkansas13.0013.00
274The Citadel12.9212.92
275Abilene Christian12.8812.88
276Morehead St.12.8012.80
277Holy Cross12.7712.77
278Gardner Webb12.7012.70
279St. Francis NY12.6812.68
280Western Carolina12.6212.62
281Tennessee Martin12.5312.53
282Southern Utah12.4512.45
283Alabama St.12.4212.42
284Sacramento St.12.3212.32
285Dartmouth12.3212.32
286American12.2912.29
287Bethune Cookman12.2612.26
288Texas A&M Corpus Chris12.1612.16
289Portland12.1212.12
290Little Rock12.0812.08
291Prairie View A&M12.0812.08
292Tennessee Tech11.8311.83
293Central Connecticut11.8111.81
294Siena11.8111.81
295Green Bay11.8011.80
296North Carolina Central11.7811.78
297McNeese St.11.7011.70
298Lafayette11.6811.68
299UMass Lowell11.5511.55
300South Florida11.5111.51
301UTEP11.4511.45
302Sacred Heart11.1811.18
303Marist11.1211.12
304Samford11.0911.09
305North Carolina A&T11.0711.07
306Loyola MD10.8610.86
307IUPUI10.7610.76
308Pittsburgh10.7410.74
309Arkansas St.10.7310.73
310New Hampshire10.7210.72
311Youngstown St.10.6310.63
312Norfolk St.10.5610.56
313UMKC10.4810.48
314Western Illinois10.4710.47
315Arkansas Pine Bluff10.4410.44
316Southern10.4110.41
317Rice10.3610.36
318Cal Poly10.2810.28
319Stetson10.1910.19
320Northwestern St.9.899.89
321East Carolina9.879.87
322Northern Arizona9.869.86
323Savannah St.9.799.79
324Cal St. Northridge9.619.61
325UC Riverside9.529.52
326UT Rio Grande Valley9.449.44
327Cleveland St.9.289.28
328Florida Atlantic9.029.02
329Florida A&M9.019.01
330Houston Baptist9.009.00
331Maryland Eastern Shore8.968.96
332Delaware St.8.708.70
333VMI8.638.63
334Kennesaw St.8.528.52
335Maine7.967.96
336Grambling St.7.927.92
337South Carolina St.7.687.68
338SIU Edwardsville7.507.50
339Morgan St.7.397.39
340Incarnate Word7.367.36
341San Jose St.7.267.26
342Presbyterian7.217.21
343Jackson St.7.197.19
344USC Upstate7.077.07
345Bryant6.996.99
346Chicago St.6.616.61
347Mississippi Valley St.6.416.41
348Alcorn St.5.545.54
349Longwood5.165.16
350Coppin St.5.155.15
351Alabama A&M4.804.80

Sunday, April 01, 2018

Every Conference Tournament Result: Big East Ranks 5th Despite Nova Title Hope

While the Big East seeks a second National Title in three years, the conference had a slightly disappointing tournament with some near misses - finishing almost even with the Big Ten but behind the ACC, SEC and Big 12 in overall play.

After the season I match each conferences #1 team against the #1 team in the other 31 conferences, then the #2 team against the other #2s etc. to get a composite record for each conference from top to bottom. The "winner" is determined as the team that had the better tournament with teams getting a credit for 1.0 for each line in March Madness, 0.4 for each NIT line (yes, NIT Champ Penn State gets more credit than a team that won one NCAA game), and less for each CBI or CIT line.

Obviously, a team like Maryland that did not go to a tournament is better than CBI and CIT teams, which only invite Mid-Majors, but this really doesn't matter in scoring because as the 7th place team in the Big Ten they "win" all their match-ups with smaller conferences 7th best teams. If teams are tied in their tournament success or neither on went to a tournament, then the team's www.kenpom.com ratings determine the "winner."

Marquette gets 1.2 credit for being on three NIT lines, which puts them slightly ahead of Providence and Creighton with a 1.0 for making the NCAA tournament but not winning a game. That gives Marquette the 5th best tournament success in the Big East, and when matched up against the 5th most successful teams from the other conferences they go 28-3 with losses only to UNC of the ACC, Ohio State of the Big Ten and Auburn of the SEC.

That is part of a composite 267-33 projected "record" for a .890 winning percentage that ranks behind only the ACC (327-10, .970), Big 12 (282-18, .940), SEC (314-23, .932) and just behind the Big Ten (301-36, .893). Here is the breakdown and tournament history for every team by conference.

Atlantic 10 (9th Place)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Rhode Island 7vs. all #12290.710NCAA252
St. Bonaventure 11vs. all #22470.774NCAA1.568
Davidson 12vs. all #32470.774NCAA144
Saint Joseph'svs. all #413180.419117
VCUvs. all #515160.484144
Saint Louisvs. all #620110.645148
La Sallevs. all #720110.645156
Daytonvs. all #821100.677172
Richmondvs. all #91980.704181
George Washingtonvs. all #101780.680192
Duquesnevs. all #111040.714201
Massachusettsvs. all #12930.750207
George Masonvs. all #13330.500220
Fordhamvs. all #14230.400292
2191180.650
ACC (1st)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Duke 2vs. all #12740.871NCAA43
Florida St. 9vs. all #23010.968NCAA427
Clemson 5vs. all #33010.968NCAA314
Syracuse 11vs. all #43010.968NCAA341
North Carolina 2vs. all #53101.000NCAA28
Louisvillevs. all #63010.968NIT1.238
Virginia 1vs. all #73010.968NCAA12
Virginia Tech 8vs. all #83101.000NCAA133
Miami FL 6vs. all #92701.000NCAA136
North Carolina St. 9vs. all #102501.000NCAA146
Notre Damevs. all #111401.000NIT0.835
Boston Collegevs. all #121201.000NIT0.477
Wake Forestvs. all #13601.00089
Georgia Techvs. all #14410.800119
Pittsburghvs. all #15000.000227
327100.970
American East (25th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
UMBC 16vs. all #118130.581NCAA2166
Vermontvs. all #211200.355NIT0.475
Hartfordvs. all #38230.258CIT0.2215
Albanyvs. all #49220.290151
Stony Brookvs. all #56250.194223
New Hampshirevs. all #64270.129278
UMass Lowellvs. all #75260.161287
Binghamtonvs. all #89220.290297
Mainevs. all #93240.111332
732020.265
American (8th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Cincinnati 2vs. all #12380.742NCAA24
Houston 6vs. all #22650.839NCAA218
Wichita St. 4vs. all #32560.806NCAA120
Templevs. all #42290.710NIT0.487
SMUvs. all #521100.67785
Tulsavs. all #62290.710110
UCFvs. all #72380.742111
Memphisvs. all #82290.710161
Tulanevs. all #92070.741171
Connecticutvs. all #101870.720179
South Floridavs. all #11770.500279
East Carolinavs. all #12480.333307
233930.715
Atlantic Sun (30th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Lipscomb 15vs. all #14270.129NCAA1167
Florida Gulf Coastvs. all #210210.323NIT0.4127
NJITvs. all #31300.032254
North Floridavs. all #42290.065282
Kennesaw St.vs. all #52290.065309
Stetsonvs. all #62290.065314
Jacksonvillevs. all #72290.065320
USC Upstatevs. all #82290.065338
252230.101
Big Ten (4th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Michigan 3vs. all #13010.968NCAA67
Purdue 2vs. all #22920.935NCAA35
Penn St.vs. all #32920.935NIT2.419
Michigan St. 3vs. all #42920.935NCAA26
Ohio St. 5vs. all #53010.968NCAA216
Nebraskavs. all #62650.839NIT0.454
Marylandvs. all #72560.80639
Wisconsinvs. all #82740.87170
Indianavs. all #92430.88971
Northwesternvs. all #102320.92084
Iowavs. all #111220.85788
Illinoisvs. all #121020.833102
Minnesotavs. all #13420.667116
Rutgersvs. all #14320.600130
301360.893
Big 12 (2nd)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Kansas 1vs. all #12920.935NCAA59
Texas Tech 3vs. all #23101.000ncaa411
Kansas St. 9vs. all #33101.000NCAA442
West Virginia 5vs. all #43101.000ncaa312
Oklahoma St.vs. all #52740.871NIT1.259
TCU 6vs. all #62920.935NCAA124
Texas 10vs. all #72920.935NCAA137
Oklahoma 10vs. all #82920.935NCAA148
Baylorvs. all #92520.926NIT0.834
Iowa St.vs. all #102140.840103
282180.940
Big East (5th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Villanova 1vs. all #13101.000NCAA61
Xavier 1vs. all #22740.871NCAA215
Butler 10vs. all #32740.871NCAA222
Seton Hall 8vs. all #42740.871NCAA226
Marquettevs. all #52830.903NIT1.255
Creighton 8vs. all #62830.903NCAA130
Providence 10vs. all #72830.903NCAA164
St. John'svs. all #82650.83976
Georgetownvs. all #92340.85295
DePaulvs. all #102230.880100
267330.890
Big Sky (15th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Northern Coloradovs. all #117140.548CIT1.2104
Montana 14vs. all #220110.645NCAA172
Portland St.vs. all #314170.452CIT0.4164
Eastern Washingtonvs. all #419120.613CBI0.3136
Idahovs. all #516150.516126
Weber St.vs. all #619120.613159
Idaho St.vs. all #716150.516226
North Dakotavs. all #816150.516239
Southern Utahvs. all #913140.481251
Montana St.vs. all #1011140.440270
Sacramento St.vs. all #11590.357285
Northern Arizonavs. all #122100.167327
1681580.515
Big South (20th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Radford 16vs. all #13280.097NCAA1170
Libertyvs. all #217140.548CIT0.8183
Campbellvs. all #321100.677CBI0.8218
UNC Ashevillevs. all #421100.677NIT0.4187
Winthropvs. all #513180.419160
High Pointvs. all #610210.323241
Charleston Southernvs. all #713180.419246
Gardner Webbvs. all #813180.419261
Presbyterianvs. all #92250.074334
Longwoodvs. all #103220.120340
1161840.387
Big West (26th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Cal St. Fullerton 15vs. all #15260.161NCAA1162
UC Davisvs. all #29220.290NIT0.4129
UC Santa Barbaravs. all #35260.161123
UC Irvinevs. all #410210.323147
Long Beach St.vs. all #510210.323191
Hawaiivs. all #615160.484200
UC Riversidevs. all #711200.355267
Cal Polyvs. all #84270.129325
Cal St. Northridgevs. all #94230.148330
732020.265
Colonial Athletic (21st)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
College of Charleston 13vs. all #19220.290NCAA1115
Northeasternvs. all #21300.03296
Towsonvs. all #34270.129153
Hofstravs. all #48230.258157
William & Maryvs. all #512190.387169
James Madisonvs. all #612190.387229
UNC Wilmingtonvs. all #714170.452245
Delawarevs. all #815160.484247
Elonvs. all #914130.519248
Drexelvs. all #1012130.480252
1011990.337
Conference USA (7th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Marshall 13vs. all #119120.613NCAA2105
Western Kentuckyvs. all #22560.806NIT1.647
North Texasvs. all #32650.839CBI1.2146
Middle Tennesseevs. all #42560.806NIT0.845
UTSAvs. all #52560.806CIT0.6174
Old Dominionvs. all #62470.77463
UABvs. all #72470.774109
Louisiana Techvs. all #82380.742149
Southern Missvs. all #91890.667206
FIUvs. all #101690.640222
Florida Atlanticvs. all #11950.643233
UTEPvs. all #12840.667240
Ricevs. all #13240.333289
Charlottevs. all #14140.200308
245920.727
Horizon League (23rd)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Wright St. 14vs. all #17240.226NCAA1133
Illinois Chicagovs. all #219120.613CIT1182
Northern Kentuckyvs. all #317140.548NIT0.490
Oaklandvs. all #47240.226175
Milwaukeevs. all #59220.290196
Green Bayvs. all #68230.258263
IUPUIvs. all #76250.194284
Cleveland St.vs. all #87240.226300
Detroitvs. all #96210.222319
Youngstown St.vs. all #106190.240322
922080.307
Ivy League (27th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Penn 16vs. all #18230.258NCAA1125
Harvardvs. all #28230.258NIT0.4141
Princetonvs. all #33280.097190
Yalevs. all #45260.161197
Columbiavs. all #55260.161231
Cornellvs. all #66250.194265
Brownvs. all #710210.323268
Dartmouthvs. all #88230.258299
531950.214
Metro Atlantic (18th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Iona 15vs. all #16250.194NCAA1138
Ridervs. all #27240.226NIT0.4145
Niagaravs. all #313180.419CIT0.4205
Canisiusvs. all #420110.645CBI0.3131
Monmouthvs. all #511200.355184
Fairfieldvs. all #614170.452212
Manhattanvs. all #717140.548216
Saint Peter'svs. all #817140.548217
Quinnipiacvs. all #910170.370280
Sienavs. all #108170.320303
Maristvs. all #112120.143321
1251890.398
Mid American (13th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Buffalo 13vs. all #120110.645NCAA267
Central Michiganvs. all #213180.419CIT0.6168
Eastern Michiganvs. all #316150.516CIT0.4143
Miami OHvs. all #418130.581CBI0.3194
Toledovs. all #518130.581113
Ball St.vs. all #618130.581173
Western Michiganvs. all #719120.613188
Ohiovs. all #819120.613193
Kent St.vs. all #917100.630211
Bowling Greenvs. all #1014110.560232
Northern Illinoisvs. all #11860.571249
Akronvs. all #12660.500255
1861400.571
Mid-Eastern (31st)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
North Carolina Central 16vs. all #10310.000NCAA0.5316
Hamptonvs. all #24270.129NIT0.4250
North Carolina A&Tvs. all #37240.226CIT0.2306
Bethune Cookmanvs. all #41300.032288
Norfolk St.vs. all #51300.032312
Savannah St.vs. all #61300.032317
Morgan St.vs. all #71300.032324
Howardvs. all #83280.097335
Florida A&Mvs. all #91260.037341
South Carolina St.vs. all #102230.080343
Coppin St.vs. all #110140.000347
Maryland Eastern Shorevs. all #120120.000349
Delaware St.vs. all #13060.000350
213110.063
Missouri Valley (12th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Loyola Chicago 11vs. all #12830.903NCAA531
Drakevs. all #26250.194CIT0.4155
Missouri St.vs. all #36250.194120
Northern Iowavs. all #412190.387122
Bradleyvs. all #517140.548124
Evansvillevs. all #621100.677134
Southern Illinoisvs. all #721100.677135
Indiana St.vs. all #82560.806137
Illinois St.vs. all #92160.778140
Valparaisovs. all #101960.760150
1761240.587
Mountain West (10th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Nevada 7vs. all #12470.774NCAA325
San Diego St. 11vs. all #221100.677NCAA150
Boise St.vs. all #318130.581NIT0.461
Fresno St.vs. all #416150.51679
New Mexicovs. all #519120.613106
UNLVvs. all #62380.742107
Wyomingvs. all #72290.710118
Utah St.vs. all #82470.774139
Colorado St.vs. all #915120.556224
Air Forcevs. all #1013120.520237
San Jose St.vs. all #113110.214301
1981160.631
Northeast (29th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
LIU Brooklyn 16vs. all #11300.032NCAA0.5259
Wagnervs. all #25260.161NIT0.4180
St. Francis PAvs. all #312190.387CIT0.4214
Mount St. Mary'svs. all #43280.097238
Robert Morrisvs. all #54270.129253
Fairleigh Dickinsonvs. all #65260.161274
Sacred Heartvs. all #73280.097305
Central Connecticutvs. all #85260.161310
St. Francis NYvs. all #98190.296313
Bryantvs. all #101240.040344
472530.157
Ohio Valley (17th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Murray St. 12vs. all #115160.484NCAA162
Jacksonville St.vs. all #218130.581CBI0.8142
Austin Peayvs. all #320110.645CIT0.6189
Belmontvs. all #415160.48483
Tennessee St.vs. all #58230.258198
Tennessee Techvs. all #613180.419219
Southeast Missouri St.vs. all #712190.387256
Eastern Illinoisvs. all #814170.452257
Morehead St.vs. all #911160.407273
Eastern Kentuckyvs. all #109160.360286
Tennessee Martinvs. all #114100.286294
SIU Edwardsvillevs. all #12390.250318
1421840.436
Pac-12 (6th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Utahvs. all #121100.677NIT258
Arizona 4vs. all #22290.710NCAA128
Arizona St. 11vs. all #32380.742NCAA149
UCLA 11vs. all #42650.839NCAA156
USCvs. all #52650.839NIT0.851
Oregonvs. all #62740.871NIT0.874
Stanfordvs. all #72740.871NIT0.886
Washingtonvs. all #82830.903NIT0.898
Oregon St.vs. all #92250.81599
Coloradovs. all #102050.800114
Washington St.vs. all #111130.786186
Californiavs. all #12750.583244
260660.798
Patriot (28th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Bucknell 14vs. all #112190.387NCAA197
Colgatevs. all #22290.065CBI0.3202
Navyvs. all #32290.065225
Lehighvs. all #44270.129236
Boston Universityvs. all #53280.097258
Armyvs. all #67240.226264
Lafayettevs. all #79220.290275
Holy Crossvs. all #811200.355290
Loyola MDvs. all #95220.185323
Americanvs. all #105200.200328
602400.200
Sun Belt (16th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Georgia St. 15vs. all #111200.355NCAA1101
Louisiana Lafayettevs. all #212190.387NIT0.469
Louisiana Monroevs. all #311200.355CIT0.4230
UT Arlingtonvs. all #411200.355128
Georgia Southernvs. all #514170.452152
Troyvs. all #617140.548177
Appalachian St.vs. all #718130.581208
Coastal Carolinavs. all #818130.581209
South Alabamavs. all #916110.593221
Texas St.vs. all #1015100.600228
Arkansas St.vs. all #11680.429281
Little Rockvs. all #12570.417296
1541720.472
Southern (22nd)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
UNC Greensboro 13vs. all #113180.419NCAA182
Mercervs. all #214170.452CBI0.6154
Woffordvs. all #315160.484CIT0.4163
East Tennessee St.vs. all #414170.45293
Furmanvs. all #520110.64594
Samfordvs. all #63280.097298
Western Carolinavs. all #74270.129302
Chattanoogavs. all #86250.194304
The Citadelvs. all #97200.259315
VMIvs. all #104210.160331
1002000.333
Southeastern (3rd)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Kentucky 5vs. all #12560.806NCAA317
Texas A&M 7vs. all #22830.903ncaa329
Tennessee 3vs. all #32830.903NCAA213
Florida 6vs. all #42830.903NCAA221
Auburn 4vs. all #52920.935NCAA223
Alabama 9vs. all #63101.000NCAA257
Mississippi St.vs. all #73101.000NIT1.653
Missouri 8vs. all #83010.968NCAA140
Arkansas 7vs. all #92610.963NCAA143
LSUvs. all #102410.960NIT0.866
Georgiavs. all #111310.92965
South Carolinavs. all #121110.91780
Vanderbiltvs. all #13510.83391
Mississippivs. all #14501.000108
314230.932
Southland (14th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Stephen F. Austin 14vs. all #110210.323NCAA1112
Sam Houston St.vs. all #216150.516CIT0.8204
Central Arkansasvs. all #319120.613CBI0.6213
New Orleansvs. all #42380.742CBI0.6266
Southeastern Louisianavs. all #52380.742NIT0.4199
Lamarvs. all #62560.806CIT0.4203
Abilene Christianvs. all #72650.839CIT0.2262
Nicholls St.vs. all #820110.645185
McNeese St.vs. all #99180.333291
Texas A&M Corpus Chrisvs. all #107180.280311
Houston Baptistvs. all #111130.071333
Incarnate Wordvs. all #121110.083342
Northwestern St.vs. all #13150.167345
1811510.545
Summit (24th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
South Dakota St. 12vs. all #114170.452NCAA178
South Dakotavs. all #23280.097CBI0.381
Fort Waynevs. all #39220.290CIT0.2165
North Dakota St.vs. all #46250.194176
Denvervs. all #57240.226210
Oral Robertsvs. all #611200.355235
Nebraska Omahavs. all #77240.226283
Western Illinoisvs. all #810210.323293
671810.270
Southwestern Athletic (32nd)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Texas Southern 16vs. all #12290.065ncaa1243
Prairie View A&Mvs. all #20310.000269
Grambling St.vs. all #30310.000295
Southernvs. all #40310.000326
Arkansas Pine Bluffvs. all #50310.000329
Alcorn St.vs. all #60310.000336
Jackson St.vs. all #70310.000337
Alabama St.vs. all #81300.032339
Mississippi Valley St.vs. all #90270.000348
Alabama A&Mvs. all #100250.000351
32970.010
Western Athletic (19th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
New Mexico St. 12vs. all #116150.516NCAA160
Utah Valleyvs. all #215160.484CBI0.692
Grand Canyonvs. all #310210.323CBI0.3121
Seattlevs. all #417140.548CBI0.3195
UT Rio Grande Valleyvs. all #52290.710CBI0.3260
Cal St. Bakersfieldvs. all #69220.290242
UMKCvs. all #78230.258276
Chicago St.vs. all #80310.000346
971510.391
West Coast (11th)RankWLW%TourLinesKenPom
Gonzaga 4vs. all #12650.839NCAA310
Saint Mary'svs. all #22380.742NIT1.232
San Franciscovs. all #32290.710CBI1158
San Diegovs. all #42470.774CIT0.6132
BYUvs. all #52470.774NIT0.473
Pacificvs. all #616150.516178
Loyola Marymountvs. all #715160.484234
Pepperdinevs. all #812190.387271
Portlandvs. all #912150.444272
Santa Claravs. all #1010150.400277
1841160.613

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Marquette's Ranking Among Catholic D1 Programs

With two Catholic schools in the Final Four, and potentially even making it an all-Catholic national championship, I took a look at where Marquette ranked against the other 41 Catholic Schools. Base purely on www.kenpom.com ratings, Marquette is 9th of 42, but the two teams behind them (Providence and St. Bonaventure) both won an NCAA tournament game so I'd say we really rank as the 10th best Catholic school this year.

For anyone wondering, Marist dropped the Catholic affiliation years ago - so are not the 41st team listed - but if you see any other misses let me know. I believe this is the complete list, however.


RankTeam (42 Catholic Teams)Catholic AffiliationConf
1Villanova 1Augustinian BE
10Gonzaga 4Jesuit WCC
15Xavier 1Jesuit BE
25Seton Hall 8DiocesanBE
30Loyola Chicago 11Jesuit MVC
31Creighton 8Jesuit BE
32Saint Mary'sDe La Salle Christian BrothersWCC
35Notre DameHoly Cross ACC
56MarquetteJesuit BE
64Providence 10Dominican BE
68St. Bonaventure 11FranciscanA10
76Boston CollegeJesuit ACC
79St. John'sVincentian BE
97GeorgetownJesuit BE
101DePaulVincentian BE
116Saint Joseph'sJesuit A10
130San DiegoIndependentWCC
131CanisiusCatholicMAAC
139Iona 15Christian Brothers MAAC
147Saint LouisJesuit A10
153San FranciscoJesuit WCC
158La SalleDe La Salle Christian BrothersA10
173DaytonSociety of MaryA10
195SeattleJesuit WAC
202DuquesneSpiritans A10
205NiagaraVincentian MAAC
213FairfieldJesuit MAAC
216St. Francis PAFranciscanNEC
217ManhattanDe La Salle Christian BrothersMAAC
218Saint Peter'sJesuit MAAC
231Loyola MarymountJesuit WCC
240Mount St. Mary'sDiocesanNEC
272PortlandHoly Cross WCC
274Santa ClaraJesuit WCC
290Holy CrossHoly Cross Pat
293FordhamJesuit A10
302SienaFranciscanMAAC
306Sacred HeartDiocesanNEC
313St. Francis NYFranciscanNEC
321DetroitJesuit Horz
322Loyola MDJesuit Pat
342Incarnate WordSisters of CharitySlnd

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Rowsey Finished With Bang as 14th Best Offensive Player in America

We just witnessed the second greatest MU offensive season of the century behind only Dwyane Wade, who was worth an extra 10.42 points above replacement per 100 possessions in 2003. After concluding with identical lines of 29 points on 6 of 11 three-point shooting in the last two NIT games - the latter against one of the toughest defenses in the country in Penn State - Rowsey was worth an extra 9.41 points per 100 trips down the court. This was the 14th best offensive performance in the country - though some kid named Jordan Howard who I hear has a brother who is pretty good as well, finished a few spots higher.

Yes, turnovers and missed shots are counted against players, and Rowsey had almost as many turnovers as Wade, but even though Rowsey was not a great matchup on defense he still finishes as the 50th most valuable overall player among 4,068 players ranked at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

The overall Values are a bit lower overall because they measure value per game (about 70 possessions a game) while the offensive ratings are per 100 possessions - as measured at www.kenpom.com.


PlayerTeamOff per 100 tripsOff RankOverall Value Overall Rank
Nick Masterson #21Kennesaw St.11.0715.74200
Jock Landale #34St. Mary's11.032112
Trae Young #11Oklahoma10.9839.778
Jeff Roberson #11Vanderbilt10.948.8116
Yante Maten #1Georgia10.56510.296
Jalen Brunson #1Villanova10.3369.6910
Deandre Ayton #13Arizona10.32711.321
Jordan Howard #1Central Arkansas10.2786.63105
James Thompson #2Eastern Michigan9.5698.7617
Sam Merrill #3Utah St.9.55107.3252
Tookie Brown #4Georgia Southern9.55117.4646
Devonte' Graham #4Kansas9.49129.3913
Juwan Morgan #13Indiana9.46139.4812
Andrew Rowsey #30Marquette9.41147.450
Jonathan Stark #2Murray St.9.31158.8215
John Konchar #55IUPU Fort Wayne9.15168.0326
Jevon Carter #2West Virginia9.121710.65
Peyton Aldridge #23Davidson9.0918829
Reed Timmer #12Drake9.09196.3131
Daryl Macon #4Arkansas9.05207.5144
Denzel Mahoney #34Southeast Missouri St.9.03215.48236
Mikal Bridges #25Villanova9.022210.744
Joe Rosga #2Denver8.99236.32128
Tyler Seibring #41Elon8.96245.88178
James Batemon #5Loyola Marymount8.95255.6219

Quick NIT recap as we close out a so-so season

We pulled together a quick podcast to close out a fairly interesting NIT post season and discuss what we liked and didn't like about it. Talk a few other tidbits but just closing out the season with a quick reaction before we do a full breakdown in a couple of weeks. Enjoy!

Download this episode (right click and save)

Monday, March 12, 2018

Game over man! Game over! (NCAA Tournament Edition)

Well, it was apparent to anyone other than Phil that MU wasn't going to make the NCAA tournament, so we talk through it and resolve our feelings. We also talk the NIT bracket and match-up sponsored by Arby's. We will also spend some time wondering around the national stage on various topics from the selection committee to the Selection Show sponsored by Milli Vanilli. It's a long podcast so you are just going to need to listen to the whole thing, we think it'll be cathartic. Enjoy!

Download this episode (right click and save)

Friday, March 09, 2018

Waiting in Auburn in MU Jersey for Noon Tip-off: 13 Teams for 7 Spots

We may take an extended lunch today in the office with four people in Auburn gear, one in Alabama gear, and then me in the Jae Crowder Marquette jersey. The Auburn and Marquette interests are aligned today, as Auburn can hurt the chances of their rival Alabama and in turn help Marquette.

Tipoff is in half an hour and my preseason selection of Auburn as the No. 11 team in the country (while another sports writer picked them to go 4-14) won reviews from local press. However, the 23-3 team I predicted could go as far as the Final Four then lost one of their only players with height, Anfernee McLemore, and is 2-3 since. They are still a 6-point favorite.

If you average the subjective brackets of CBS Sports' Jerry Palm, ESPN's Joe Lunardi, the composite Bracket Matrix, and the two most accurate Mathematical predictors (ESPN's Strength of Record, and Dance Card) Marquette averages as next to last team in the tournament and Alabama as the next to last, so a win from Alabama may push Marquette down another spot:

(updates new Friday Bracket Matrix - Alabama moved up 4 spots to 5, UCLA up 2 spots to 1, MU drops 2 spots to 12 and MTSU drops 4 spots to 8). On the overall average of these 5, that leaves Marquette within one point of MTSU 6.0, Lville 6.2, Alabama 6.4, MU 6.9 prior to the Auburn game)


up to 7 bids of 13   PalmLunardiMatrixSORDanceAve.Today
Alabama10551116.4Auburn Noon +6
Arizona State910713119.8Done
Baylor121394109.4Done
Louisville576396.2Done
Marquette31212256.8Done
MTSU868626.0Done
Notre Dame11913101311.2Done
Oklahoma442132.6Done
Oklahoma State138105129.8Done
Saint Mary's234785Done
Syracuse71111948.6Done
USC6131265.4Oregon 10:30 pm -3
UCLA121873.8Arizona 8 pm +3

However, while averages are nice, the fact that Marquette ranks everywhere from 2nd to 12th in trying to claim seven spots shows that we do not know - Alabama could be easily ahead of Marquette already or could be far enough behind that even another win does not get them past Marquette.

Tonight's games for USC and UCLA could also be important. Most have them both ahead of Marquette, but not all. Even Lunardi, the least favorable for Marquette, stated at the beginning of the conference tournament that either team could be eliminated if they lose in the semifinals.

Marquette fans should root for Auburn, Oregon, and Arizona tonight, and would then want Arizona to win the Pac-12 title over Oregon to avoid have the Ducks take a spot and only allow six of the 13 above make it.

Six other games cold matter today, as they three conferences that would "steal" a bid with a surprise champion are the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and American Athletic. The nightmare scenario would be Oregon winning the Pac-12, someone besides Nevada winning the MW, someone besides St. Bonaventure or Rhode Island winning the A10, and someone besides Cincinnati, Wichita State or Houston winning the AAC. If all four of those things happened, then only three of the 13 teams above would logically make the tournament.

All the teams we are rooting for are favored from between 4 and 9 points today.

Need to winConfToday
NevadaMWSD St 8 pm -4
Rhode IslandA10VCU 11 am -8
St. BonaventureA10Rich 5 p.m. -9
CincinnatiAACSMU 11 am -8
Wichita StateAACTemple 6 pm -9
HoustonAACUCF 8 pm -8

Auburn is a disaster. About to drop to 2-4 since the injury to Anfernee McLemore.

Turning my attention to possible spoilers, I guess I see up to 5 conferences that theoretically could have one - so will root against these teams, though some still need to play each other.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/03/waiting-in-auburn-in-mu-jersey-for-noon.html
updated Saturday after the relief over Rhode Island and Cincy rallying to stop spoilers - only one spoiler (New Mexico or San Diego State with Nevada out) and only one possible additional - Davidson if they beat both St. B's and Rhode Island.

Conf Possible Spoiler
A10 Davidson - sat vs. St. B's 2:30 p.m Sat
A10 George Mason - gone
A10 Richmond - gone
A10 Saint Joseph's - eliminated semis by RI
A10 Saint Louis - gone
Amer Memphis - eliminated semis by Cincy
Amer Temple - gone
Amer Tulsa - gone
Amer UCF - gone
MWC New Mexico or San Diego state WILL steal bid
MWC San Diego St. - see above
MWC Utah St. - gone
P12 Oregon - gone
SEC Georgia - gone
SEC Mississippi St. - gone


Nothing is set in stone, the Selection Committee could have some other team in or out, but it looks like these 12 are competing with Marquette. Thanks TAMU Eagle and wisblue for your posts on MUScoop to help me narrow this down.

Sunday, March 04, 2018

The Most Bubbly Bubble Team to Ever Bubble


We'll make this summary quick, because Joe put together a great viewing guide. We talk Creighton and senior day, what our tournament fate looks like, how #mubb will play in the Big East tournament and then analyze who we want to win and/or lose for MU to get in. #noredforOwen makes an appearance as well. Enjoy!


BUBBLE ROOTING GUIDE
Note: This rooting guide did not take into account small RPI points, strength of schedule boosts and other metrics. So, there may be some slight inaccuracies for that reason. This is simply bubble teams you want to lose and rooting against potential bid thieves.



Pac-12

It is alarming how close this “power conference” league is to being a one-bid league. Arizona is the only team not sweating Selection Sunday (now, the FBI is another story).

Root for: Arizona. Arizona State is also probably in, but I’d advise them to not lose early and make it interesting. Marquette fans, you’d much prefer Arizona to win this tournament. You are also rooting for Oregon State, not to win, but to pick off a couple bubble teams.

Root against: Washington, USC, UCLA and Utah. What’s weird is that USC, UCLA, and Utah are the 2, 3, and 4 seeds, respectively. So, the odds are at least a couple of this teams will pad their resumes enough to feel safe. Oregon State can do Marquette a big favor by picking off Washington in the 7-10 game and then USC.



SEC

While the SEC may not have a team get a top two NCAA seed, it has quite a few teams that are comfortably in and Marquette fans should feel okay with winning  the SEC tournament.

Root for: Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M to win it. Root for LSU to pull a couple upsets then go down. LSU would be a bid thief if it wins the whole thing.

Root against: Mississippi State, Alabama. Pull for LSU to take down Mississippi State in the 7-10 game. Alabama may be in regardless, but having the Tide go down to A&M wouldn’t be a bad result. Even though he’s not playing, rooting for a team with Duane Wilson on it is always easy for Marquette fans.



ACC

This should be easy for Marquette fans, because there are some teams in here that Marquette would root against no matter what.

Root for: The top seeds, just to avoid a bid thief. Duke and North Carolina are fine. Even if you don’t like Virginia, the Cavs winning is also a positive result. Root for Pitt to get an upset or two, just because it would be hilarious.

Root against: Syracuse, Notre Dame, Louisville. Again, these are all teams you’d probably root against anyway. Notre Dame is definitely an interesting case for the committee due to how good the Irish have been when healthy. However, the Irish resume is less than ideal. A first round exit to Pitt would be the nail in the coffin for the Irish. Syracuse losing to 14 seed Wake would be a great result for Marquette. Louisville has Florida State in an 8-9 game. The Cardinals may be in either way, but an early Louisville exit is certainly not a bad thing as far as Marquette is concerned.



Big 12

The Big 12 is a deep league and should definitely have seven or eight teams in. Marquette, though, is obviously rooting for seven instead of eight.

Root for: Kansas winning this thing in KC is a regular occurrence, and that would be fine with us. Texas Tech or West Virginia would also be acceptable. If you’re looking at it from a Big East perspective, an early Kansas exit may increase the likelihood of Xavier and Villanova both getting 1 seeds, but we’re just talking Marquette things here.

Root against: Lots of bubble teams: Baylor, Kansas State, Texas, and maybe even Oklahoma are sweating right now. Texas losing to Iowa State would be a disaster for the ‘Horns. I know we don’t like rooting for ISU, but suck it up and do it just this once. (Although, I feel for Texas, considering Andrew Jones is battling cancer. For that reason, I’d like to see Texas dance, not at Marquette’s expense, but the Longhorns are easy to like.) Oklahoma is still probably in, but losing to Oklahoma State would be bad for the Sooners. I am on the record that, if Marquette has to go to Dayton, let’s get nuts and play the Sooners. Trae Young vs. MU’s shooters would be wild, like a 115-113 final. But for these purposes, root for Oklahoma State to take down OU before losing to Kansas. I’m pretty sure OSU is out, but let’s not get any more teams in the bubble discussion.



Big Ten

Oh wait, they’re done. Bubble teams Penn State and Nebraska are biting their nails for a week.



Elsewhere

Loyola Chicago winning the MVC on Sunday was a nice result for Marquette, as it guarantees Loyola Chicago won’t enter the at-large discussion. Even if MU may have a better resume, more teams to talk about is bad.


Wichita State is definitely the team you want in the American, but Houston or (grits teeth) Cincinnati would also be fine because they’re both locks. No one else in the American is acceptable. Temple scares me a little as a team talented enough to run through the AAC. And I don’t care how bad they are, UConn has done this crap before. So, beware.


In the Mountain West, Nevada is critical. The Wolfpack is a lock to make the dance. Boise State is on the wrong side of the bubble, and no one else in the MWC is close. I’m not sure Boise State can play its way to an at-large. Let’s keep this simple: Go Nevada!


As always, the WCC must be Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s. They’re both comfortably in the field, especially Gonzaga. So, root for the Zags, settle for Saint Mary’s. Any other result is bad.


In the Atlantic 10, pull hard for Rhode Island. St. Bonaventure is a bubble team that has a very good shot at being in. So, the Bonnies winning is something you could stomach I suppose, but seeing them go down early and sweat is a more preferable result. No one else in the Atlantic 10 is close to an at-large. Again, we’ll keep it simple: Pull for the Rams.


Finally, our old home of Conference USA. Middle Tennessee is the one you want here. Western Kentucky and Old Dominion have nice records but probably aren’t playing their way to an at-large bid. Similar to Loyola Chicago before Sunday, the Blue Raiders should be in the field but may be out with an early exit. The possibility that they could be added to the at-large field is not something Marquette wants. Fewer teams in the at-large discussion is better, so go Middle Tennessee!



Finally, the most important team in the rooting guide: MARQUETTE! Your Golden Eagles could make this very easy with a deep run at MSG. They have only reached the Big East semifinals twice since joining the league, and they’ve only won more than one game three times. Marquette has been one-and-done five times in Big East Tournament history. So, Marquette is due, right? Here’s to hoping for a run to the Big East title game, which means we just wrote all this for nothing!
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Saturday, March 03, 2018

Howard's 1,016 by 19th Birthday Tops Durant, Magic, Duncan, Tisdale, Curry ... well, everyone we can find

Magic Johnson scored 511 points before celebrating his 19th birthday, Steph Curry 700 points, Wayman Tisdale 810 and Kevin Durant 903. Only five players have scored 1,000 points in one season since Sports Reference started tracking in the 1980s and freshman could not even play until the early 1970s.

We looked through the greatest freshman seasons we could find, including freshman who finished in the top 50 at www.valueaddbasketball.com and lists of top freshman seasons and discovered that the majority of great freshman seasons were accomplished by players who turned 19 before they started their freshman season. So the majority total is ZERO.

And then you have the rare player who starts playing at 17 - two years younger than most of the all-time great freshmen.

Tim Duncan showed up on Wake Forest campus as a 17-year-old in 1993 and scored 860 points by the time he turned 19, and on Saturday Markus Howard celebrated his birthday by torching Creighton to bring his total to 1,016 points. We know no one has topped that total in a single freshman season, so we will leave it up to others to find someone else who came to a campus as a 17-year-old and put up two years of scoring to get to 1,000 by their 19th birthday, but for now Howard is the best ever that we can find.

RankPlayer19th birthdayby 19thTeamNotes
1Markus Howard3/3/20181,016Marquettethru sophomore season finale
2Kevin Durant11/29/2007903Texasfull freshman season
3Tim Duncan4/25/1995860Wake Forestfull freshman and soph season
4Wayman Tisdale6/9/1983810Oklahomafull freshman season
5Carmelo Anthony5/29/2003778Syracusefull freshman season
6Steph Curry3/14/2007700Davidsonday after birthday added 30 in loss to MD to end freshman season
7Jabari Parker3/15/2014633Duke37 points after birthday
8James Harden8/26/2008605Arizona St.full freshman season
9Bradley Beal6/26/2012546Floridafull freshman season
10Marvin Bagley III3/14/2018539Dukestill counting until birthday
11Jared Sullinger3/4/2011514Ohio St.121 after birthday
12Magic Johnson8/14/1978511Michigan Statefull freshman season
13Jordan Adams7/8/2013505UCLAfull freshman season
14Malik Monk2/4/2017503Kentucky251 after birthday
15Patrick Beverley7/12/2007485Arkansasfull freshman season
16Anthony Davis3/11/2012485Kentuckyfull freshman season
17Chase Budinger5/22/2007484Arizonafull freshman season
18Michael Kidd-Gilchrist9/26/2012476Kentuckyfull freshman season
19Miles Bridges3/21/2017473Michigan Statefull freshman season
20Chris Bosh24-Mar-03466Georgia Techscored 19 more in NIT loss to Bobby Knight's Texas Tech after birthday
21Tyus Jones5/10/2015461Dukefull freshman season
22Marcus Smart3/6/2013433Oklahoma St.74 after birthday
23DeJuan Blair4/22/2008429Pittsburghfull freshman season
24Justise Winslow3/26/2015425Duke67 after birthday
25Gordon Hayward3/23/2009420Butlerfull freshman season

Sunday, February 25, 2018

The red flashing light? Its the "not gonna make the tournament" warning light, and it's just gone into overdrive

Not even sure where to start with this post, it was not good before now with a loss to DePaul it is likely over. So we are going to talk about what went wrong in Chicago and what was Wojo thinking. After we go through all the woulda, coulda, shouldas, we turn to the impact this loss has on a potential NCAA bid. We then talk about the next week and whether or not Marquette can win both games to even give them a shot at a tournament bid. We then talk about our favorite memories from the BC since this will be the last regular season game before moving to the new arena. Lastly we spend some time talking about the reports this week regarding bag dropping and cheating by various programs from the vantage point of Marquette. It was not great, but still....Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Thursday, February 22, 2018

SOR/Matrix Average: Marquette Only Winner Among 10 "Middle" Teams Wednesday

In the past I've argued a "Middle 25" ranking for college basketball would be much more interesting than the Top 25, since what we really want to identify pre-tournament is the 25 teams fighting for the last 10 spots in the tournament.

The "Middle 25" below were those teams based on me averaging the Strength of Record ESPN argues is the best analytic indicator (a measure of how likely the 25th best team in the country would have been to match the team's record) and the cumulative wisdom of the bracket matrix. I grade last night's performance with a B, C or D letter grade (there were no earth-shattering A or F grades last night) to indicated if a team could have moved up or down based on last night's performance.


SOR/ Matrixup to 10 of 25 get bidsCONFRecordWed GmGrade for Wed or next game (kenpom ranks)
1Arizona State

Pac-12

19-7

Thur at #74 Oregon

2Saint Mary's

WCC

25-4

Thur hosts #295 Pepperdine

3FloridaSEC17-10UnchangedC - closer than expected loss at #15 Tennessee
4BaylorBig 1217-11Sat at #23 TCU; Lunardi 7th in middle
5St. Bona.A 1020-6UnchangedC - closer than expected 73-67 home win over #191 Duquesne
6AlabamaSEC17-10DownD - destroyed by 19 vs #12 Auburn
7MissouriSEC18-10Sat #25 Kentucky
8ProvidenceBig East17-10DownD - losing 56-47 with 13 min left vs. #38 Seton Hall before slick floor suspended
9LouisvilleACC18-9DownD - destroyed by Duke 82-56
10




Miss St.

Current Cutoff


SEC




20-8




Sat Hosts #80 South Carolina




11SyracuseACC18-9DownD - lost at home vs. #7 UNC
12NebraskaBig Ten21-9Hosts #27 Penn State
13UCLAPac-1219-8Thur at #60 Utah; lunardi 11th in middle
14MarylandBig Ten19-11Sat hosts #20 Michigan
15MarquetteBig East15-11UpB - bigger than expected win over #71 St. John's
16Boise StateMW21-6UpB - crushed #222 Colorado St 87-54 on road
17Penn StateBig Ten19-10DownD - upset loss vs. #24 Minnesota at home
18LSUSEC16-11Sat #71 Georgia
19USCPac-1219-9Upbigger than expected win at #112 Colorado
20WashingtonPac-1218-9Thur at #93 Stanford
21UtahPac-1217-9Thur hosts #53 UCLA
22GeorgiaSEC15-11DownD - bigger than expected loss at South Carolina 66-57
23Notre DameACC16-12Sat at #89 Wake Forest
24TempleAmerican15-12host #97 UCF
25Western KentuckyCUSA20-7Hosts #316 Charlotte

A warning - there are 10 spots available for this team without any tournament spoilers, most notably if Middle Tennessee or Nevada were to but upset in the Conference USA or Mountain West Tournament than those two conferences would likely get two spots, but there really are not too many spoilers most years. Based on this measure, Marquette is the "5th team out" as the 15th best team among the Middle 25 vying for 10 spots.

The good news is that was going into the St. John's game, and that win was coupled with all four teams in action in the 6th to 15 spots (the "Middle 10" with Marquette) having bad nights - though Providence could still salvage their night with a comeback in the game they need to finish at Noon Thursday. So if ESPN's resume and/or the Bracket Matrix is close, Marquette's chances likely improved somewhat substantially last night in beating a St. John's team that was undefeated in February including the upsets of Villanova and Duke.

Alabama, Louisville, Syracuse and Providence having setbacks and Marquette's win also improving its standing against the three idle teams just in front of them - Nebraska, UCLA and Maryland - give plenty of potential for movement. We will see how many nudge Marquette into their brackets or at least the next teams' out.

Monday, February 19, 2018

Wait, playing a single small guard and a 2-3 zone worked? Why didn't we think of that???

We are absolutely going to take that win and run with it, but it left us with a lot of questions, some of them angry. First, at the time of recording we knew nothing of the prognosis for Markus Howard so instead of going all local news and having a Sunday night news teaser that made it sound like we know what was going on with him but it turned out we had no idea whatsoever......we aren't going to do that[rant off/]. So we talk about the injury and what we know as well as the possible impact it could have on the rest of the season. We also talk about why did it take Howard's pelvis exploding for Wojo to actually go to a line-up/defense that made sense for this team? Finally, we talk about the next week of basketball and whether #mubb can win two more. It's gonna be an interesting week to be sure, so listen up and get ready for a roller coaster. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Have you ever seen the rain comin' down on a sunny day? #mubb edition

We went with a little CCR for the pod title because we are trying to unpack what we just experienced with the saddest 1-1 week that included a road win over a top 40 opponent. What do we make of the win against Seton Hall and then watch Wojo get out coached by Chris Mullen? I'm not saying we're having an existential crisis but we certainly aren't not having an existential crisis. We break down the two games and talk about what we learned and how it projects for the last 5 games of the regular season. We talk about what, if anything, Wojo actually does different over the next 5 games and how much we can actually look at positively from the season to date. We make some predictions on the Creighton game and how that may foretell the rest of the season. We close out by talking about an old friend, Duane Wilson, and the unfortunate end to his season. Maybe CCR was singing about the #mubb defense: 'Til forever, on it goes. Through the circle, fast and slow. I know! It can't stop, I wonder. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Monday, February 05, 2018

It was a bad week, was it the worst one in the Wojo era?

Not much of a synopsis this week. We basically have a long therapy session about the state of the program under Wojo after a very bad week of basketball against Butler and Providence. It's a tough pod but hopefully one that helps us get our heads right. Enjoy Download this episode (right click and save)