Game MVP J. Wilson (+6), Gardner (+4) & FT shooting (+4) give MU 8-point win over USC

In the past I've complained when fans over-emphasized missed free throws in losses rather than focusing on which of the Four Factors decided the game.  However, I've added a "FT%+-" line to give a true indication of the impact free throws have on a game in addition to the Four Factors.  Here is the box from the win over USC.

	Eff.	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR	FT%+-
Marquette	113.30	52.9%	17.5%	32.1%	41.2%	+4
Average	100.00	48.0%	21.1%	32.7%	37.6%	-
vs. USC	100.71	46.4%	15.6%	27.3%	26.8%	+2

Every year D1 basketball players hit 69% of their free throws, so "FT%+-" indicates how many points a team added or took away at the line by their shooting.  Tonight MU took 21 free throws, so a typical team would have hit 14 of those on a given night, but MU hit 18 and thus scored 4 more points (+4 in far right) than they would have based just on the Four Factors.  So without getting into the more complicated math (1-on-1s, possible offensive rebounds off missed free throws) we can say MU would have just won 68-64 on an average night at the line.

As for the Four Factors:

eFG%. MU shot better than average (52.9% eFG) and defended better than average (46.4% allowed).  The key was Game MVP Jamil Wilson's 7 of 9 with three treys (94% eFG%).

TO%.  MU did a better than average job of protecting the ball (17.5% of trips were turnovers), but USC was even better (15.6%).

OR%.  MU was just below average in Offensive Rebounds.  Davante Gardner entered the game getting 32.1% of all MU misses - the best total in the country by 5% over the 2nd best player in America - but that was the team average as USC's 7-footers were able to hold Gardner to 1 offensive rebound.  However, the good news is that Marquette did an even better job of keeping USC off the boards by allowing only 27.3% to USC, after entering the game only 205th in defensive rebounding.  Last year Jae Crowder's 21% put him in the top 5% of all players, but this year the two new guards have been key to keep the number respectable despite noone in the top 500. The best defensive rebounder is Jake Thomas (19%), followed by Juan Anderson and Trent Lockett (16%), then Jamil Wilson, Steve Taylor and Chris Otule (15%) and Gardner (14%).

FT%. MU was also above average in getting to the line with a 41.2% FT%, meaning they were able to shoot that percentage of Free Throws vs. Field Goals while holding USC to only 26.8% by not fouling.

Overall last night J. Wilson was clearly the star, worth almost a +6 to MU (5.927 according to Dean Olivier's NetAvg, which unlike Value Add does not adjust for level of opponent but is a quicker single game tool).

vs. USC	FG (3pt)	FGA	FT	FTA	OR	DR	Pts	A	TO	BLK	S	Net Avg
Jamil Wilson, F	7 (3)	9	2	2	2	4	19	0	0	1	2	5.927
Davante Gardner, F	3	5	6	6	1	5	12	2	2	1	0	3.586
Juan Anderson, F	1 (1)	1	1	2	2	0	4	0	1	1	1	1.518
Chris Otule, C	5	7	-	-	1	1	10	0	1	1	0	1.384
Trent Lockett, G	2	5	4	4	2	4	8	0	1	0	1	0.820
Junior Cadougan, G	3	7	5	6	1	4	11	6	5	0	0	0.369
Vander Blue, G	3	11	-	-	0	0	6	2	1	0	2	0.000
Derrick Wilson, G	1	3	-	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0.000
Jake Thomas, G	-	3	-	-	0	3	0	2	0	1	2	0.000
Steve Taylor Jr., G	-	-	-	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

That ties J. Wilson with Gardner's two Game MVPs and one 2nd place MVP for 13 points on my 5-3-1 scoring system.  This was the third time this season that Anderson has been the third best player on the court for MU, as he hit a trey and grabbed two offensive rebounds to nudge out Chris Otule, who I'd subjectively say was actually the third best player tonight - but kudos to both.  Here is the tally for the year based purely on Net Avg:

Game MVPs	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
Gardner	2	1	0	13
J. Wilson	2	1	0	13
Blue	1	1	0	8
Cadougan	0	1	1	4
Lockett	0	1	1	4
Anderson	0	0	3	3

Despite RPI hit from loss to Butler, MU leaves Maui in decent shape

Despite the heart break of the last second loss to Butler, and the bad ramifications it will play in having Mississippi State instead of UNC factoring into the RPI at the end of the season (MU is projected to have the 53^rd best RPI by Forecast RPI), the USC win may be a good one.  

While Pomeroy had USC as outside the top 150, I actually believe Value Add’s preseason 84^th ranking was more accurate in this case.  As a starting point I believe Pomeroy bases his rating on the percent of a team’s production that is returning, but in this case five of the USC’s players were transfers who brought a lot of Value into the program after sitting out last year, including:

JT Terrell (21 points) and Ari Stewart from Wake Forest, Aaron Fuller came from Iowa, Jio Fontan (9 assists) from Fordham, Omar Oraby (4 of 5 shooting by the 7-footer) from Rice.

I believe these guys playing for Kevin O’Neill, one of the greatest defensive coaches in the name who made USC the 2^nd best defense in the country his first year there, will only get better and at very least be a top 100 win on a neutral court if not perhaps even a bubble team.  In addition, I believe the Pac 12 will be much better than last year when the conference’s poor season pulled down every opponent’s RPI.  This year the Pac 12 should have at least four NCAA bids (UCLA, California, Arizona and Stanford), and it’s possible USC could join Colorado and Oregon State as bubble teams by the end of the year.

So MU leaves Maui in pretty strong shape as on pace to being a solid NCAA team.  Pomeroy projects MU to lose by double digits twice this year (at Florida and at Louisville), so if Blue is out at even a week then our percentage on winning in Gainesville next week will drop even below the 14% chance Pomeroy gives us.  However, don't get too down on a loss there.  MU is passing the eye test right now as a team that everyone saw lose by one point on an impossible shot and will be 5-1 after taking care of Maryland-Baltimore Monday.

An NCAA bid and at least one win this year will get the players ready for the 2014 run. 

USC's Kevin O'Neill & 7-footer Dedmon try to stop MU & top offensive rebounder in country in Gardner at 4 CT Wednesday

Davante Gardner grabbed 8 more offensive rebounds on 18 Marquette misses to improve on his national best 29.1% offensive rebounds. If Gardner grabs over 30% of MUs misses tomorrow, and USCs 7-footer Dewayne Dedmon grabs his average 30% (7th best defensive rebounder in country), then that leaves less than 40% of MUs misses for the other 8 players on the court.

Wednesday at 4 CT defensive coaching specialist Kevin O'Neill will try to keep him off the boards.  I have written in glowing terms on what O'Neill did for MU basketball in turning a sub-.500 program into a Sweet 16 team in just a few years (1994), but after his Trojans upset Texas in overtime he is now the enemy for a day who is trying to shut down an MU team that suddenly looks very good after Butler beat UNC by double digits and MU killed Mississippi State.  The most valuable performances in that game:

vs. Mississippi State	FG	FGA	FT	FTA	OR	DR	A	TO	BLK	S	Net Avg
Davante Gardner, F	7	14	1	1	8	4	2	3	1	1	7.718
Vander Blue, G	8 (2)	14	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	1	5.308
Trent Lockett, G	5 (2)	10	1	1	1	2	4	0	0	1	5.277
Jamil Wilson, F	4	5	3	3	1	3	1	0	4	1	4.606
Chris Otule, C	3	6	2	2	4	4	0	1	2	1	3.481
Jake Thomas, G	3 (3)	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	2.955
Steve Taylor Jr.	2	3	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	1	1.703
Jamal Ferguson	2	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0.020
Junior Cadougan, G	1	5	0		0	0	5	4	0	2	0.000
Juan Anderson, F	1	5	0		0	0	2	1	1	1	0.000
Derrick Wilson, G	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0.000
Dylan Flood	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

I was the only one on the team in the preseason to pick MU to beat UNC today.  While we will never know if it would have happened, watching Butler take a 29-point lead over UNC the day after needing a miraculous shot to beat Marquette certainly makes it appear MU might have won.  Butler eventually settled for a 72-61 win, on the same day that Marquette destroyed Mississippi State 89-62.

We will also never know if Davante Gardner could have dominated UNC again, but the No. 1 offensive rebounder in the country certainly had little trouble with a much weaker opponent in Mississippi State.  Gardner came into the game grabbing 29.1% of all MU misses - the top offensive rebounding number in the country even before grabbing 8 of an estimated 18 MU missed shots while he was in the game today.

Due to some complications with the game calculator of Value Add (e.g. afraid it was just about doubling everyone's Value Add yesterday so Vander's great night was actually just over 10%), I have shifted the game calculator to "Net Average" as calculated by Rob based on Dean Oliver's figure in "Basketball on Paper."  Based on that, Davante improved MUs margin by about 7.7 points tonight, making him the top contributor.  Vander Blue nudged out Trent Lockett for the 2nd top player in the game, but note that Jake Thomas went 3 of 3 - all from behind the arc - and overall improved MU's margin by 2.95 points in just 10 minutes played.

That gives Gardner two statistical Player of the Game honors, and I decided to start tracking them for the year by giving the top statistical player each game 5 points, the 2nd best 3 points, and 3rd best 1 point.  Today gives Gardner 10 points, putting him just ahead of Blue and J. Wilson who took the other two Game MVPs as well as one 2nd place:

Game MVPs	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
Gardner	2	0	0	10
Blue	1	1	0	8
J. Wilson	1	1	0	8
Cadougan	0	1	1	4
Lockett	0	1	1	4
Anderson	0	0	2	2

Gardner No. 1 Offensive Rebounder in the Country according to Pomeroy

Rank	Player	Team	Ht	Wt	Yr	OR%
1	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6-8	290	Jr	29.1
2	Dante Taylor	Pittsburgh	6-9	235	Sr	27.4
3	Anthony Bennett	Nevada Las Vegas	6-8	240	Fr	24.2
4	Reggie Johnson	Miami FL	6-10	292	Sr	24.0
5	Ronald Roberts	Saint Joseph's	6-8	220	Jr	23.4

Even BEFORE grabbing 8 offensive rebounds in just 22 minutes today in the 89-62 win over Mississippi State, Davante Gardner was rated as the best offensive rebounder in the country by Pomeroy (please sign on and pay your $20 subscription for the year!).

For those who haven't seen these numbers before, the rating above indicates that 29.1% of the time Marquette missed a shot in their first three games Gardner grabbed the rebound.  Last year only two players (Thomas Robinson of Kansas and Andre Roberson of Colorado) grabbed a higher percentage of misses ON DEFENSE.  Last year Jack Cooley of Notre Dame had the highest offensive percentage of any BCS conference player at 16.7% - a little over half of what Gardner did through three games.

Obviously Gardner's number will drop, but amazing to see the numbers he is putting up.

More on today's action after the conclusion of the Butler-UNC game tonight, which is helping to put last night's one-point loss in perspective.

Explosions by Blue (21.7% Value Add) and Cadougan (14.3%) offset by poor inside defense, last second shot by Butler

vs. Butler	FG (3pt)	FGA	FT	FTA	OR	DR	TP	A	TO	BLK	S	Value Add
Vander Blue, G	7 (3)	14	4	5	2	1	21	1	3	0	0	21.72
Junior Cadougan, G	5 (1)	9	3	4	0	1	14	3	3	0	1	14.32
Juan Anderson, F	2	3	1	4	2	4	5	2	1	1	3	8.00
Trent Lockett, G	3	6	3	5	0	5	9	0	3	0	1	7.57
Davante Gardner, F	4	7	4	6	5	2	12	0	2	1	0	6.70
Jake Thomas, G	1	2	1	1	1	4	3	0	1	0	0	2.35
Steve Taylor Jr.	1	3	-	-	1	1	2	0	0	0	1	2.01
Derrick Wilson, G	-	-	2	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	1	1.83
Chris Otule, C	1	1	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	1	0	1.26
Jamil Wilson, F	-	4	-	-	0	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.71
Jamal Ferguson	-	-	-	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00

Yes, Rotnei Clarke hit a ridiculous half-hook 3-pointer despite a nearly perfect double team by Marquette to send Butler into the 2nd round in Maui against UNC. MUs 72-71 loss sends us into the consolation round against Mississippi State tomorrow. You can see that on ESPN.

However, the real news in why it came down to the last second was this:

1. Marquette forced turnovers on 5 of Butler’s first 10 possessions to take a 14-4 lead.

2. Marquette forced turnovers on 2 of Butler’s next 56 possessions, and Butler got to the rim with ease to average more than 1.2 points per trip down the court (better than anyone in the country averaged last year).

Let’s just leave it that the interior defense will have to improve a lot or MU will be a bubble team. However, there were good signs on the offensive side of the ball.

Blue, Cadougan shine as balance continues

 The balance continued to show as today Vander Blue was the big star, but with an excellent game by Junior Cadougan. Blue di . With 3 minutes to play in the game, Blue was scoreless on 0 for 4 shooting with a turnover. He dominated the last 23 minutes of the game. Blue hit 7 of his last 10 shots including three treys to finish with a spectacular 21.7% Value Add.

For perspective, in the final 23 minutes of the game he took 10 shots and scored 21 points while grabbing a huge offensive rebound. His spectacular line gives great hope that the only 5-star recruit in MU history may finally be ready to explode and complement his drives for traditional 3-point plays with 3-point shooting.

Junior Cadougan was almost as good. He showed a great pull up on several occasions after driving into the lane, and hit a three on his own en route to scoring a very efficient 14 points on just 9 shots. He added three assists to finish with a 14.3% Value Add (for a whole season, more than a 9% Value Add is All-American level, though obviously great players hit these levels a few times a year.)

While skeptics will point out both turned the ball over three times, that is factored into Value Add. Basically Blue’s Value Add for the game indicates Marquette would have lost about 58-72 if Blue were replaced by a borderline BCS player for his 37 minutes, while Marquette would have lost 60-72 if Cadougan was replaced. Junior had his only miss from the line at the end of 32 grueling minutes (Blue played 37 minutes), but was part of the near perfect defense at the other end which earned a win – only to have the crazy shot go in.

The other great performances according to Value Add were turned in by Juan Anderson (8%), Trent Lockett (7.6%) and Davante Gardner (6.7%), while Steve Taylor’s strength seems to give MU a 3rd option at center if Gardner and Chris Otule get in foul trouble, and Jake Thomas’ incredible offensive rebound and stick-back-and-one would have been the highlight of the night if not for the late heave.

With different players stepping up each night to be a star it looks like there is enough firepower to replace Jae Crowder and DJO by Committee on the offensive end, so let’s see if Buzz can make the adjustments in the interior defense to get stops when MU does not force a turnover. MU must handle a Mississippi State team who is truly rebuilding, and that would leave a chance to finish the tournament with an upset of Texas, which was ranked 22nd by Pomeroy before being stunned by Chaminade tonight.

Last season the top two players in virtually every game were Jae Crowder and DJO.  This year there has been a different top player in each game.  Cadougan and Gardner are the only two players who have been one of the top five MU players in every game, and even between them Junior has not been the top player yet and Gardner was only one of the top three players in the one game in which he was the top player.  J. Wilson is the only player who has been one of the best two players in each of the first two games, and today he was held scoreless on 0 of 4 shooting.

When you add the defense of Derrick Wilson and Chris Otule, and the great minutes put in by Steve Taylor and Jake Thomas so far, and it still looks like a lot of balance but so far no Top 100 player who would get All-Conference votes as of yet.

Otto Porter, my preseason pick for surprise Big East Player of the year, had 18 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and 5 blocked shots – and did it hitting two treys en route to 6 of 10 from the floor and 4 of 5 from the line.  It was his first action after getting a concussion a few minutes into the opener, as Georgetown stunned UCLA.

Value Add	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3
1st	J. Wilson	Gardner	Blue
2nd	Lockett	J. Wilson	Cadougan
3rd	Anderson	Cadougan	Anderson
4th	Gardner	Blue	Lockett
5th	Cadougan	Lockett	Gardner

Can MU beat Butler to give Gardner a chance to repeat dominance of UNC?

In the CrackedSidewalks preseason preview I was the only one to pick a Marquette upset of UNC Tuesday on ESPN at 7 p.m. in the Maui Classic.  As a freshman, Davante Gardner torched UNC for 16 points in 18 minutes on an incredible 6 of 9 shooting and 4 of 5 from the line to go along with 6 rebounds.

"Butler is a huge game, as a loss could make MU a bubble team worried about Selection Sunday"

While Gardner dominated UNC as a freshman, Value Add projects him as the top player on a very balanced MU team this year and projects UNC as being (relatively) down for a year before being a contender again in 2014.  So UNC seems ripe, even though in two previous meetings, Williams built leads of 42 points (Kansas 2003) and 31 points (UNC 2011) vs. MU.

However, now MU needs to win its first big game of the year Monday at 2:30 CT against Butler Monday to even get that chance.  Butler is a huge game, as a loss could make MU a bubble team worried about Selection Sunday, but a solid win could indicate MU is incorporating all of the new roles and is worried more about what seed it will be with a chance to make a statement against Roy Williams.  

When I picked MU to easily beat Butler and then stun UNC, I considered MU the 25^th best team in the country based on Value Add.  Since then, Todd Mayo was ruled ineligible dropping MU from 25^th to 34^th in the Value Add projections – thus projecting a MU as a first round LOSER in the NCAA tournament.  Then a weak performance against Southeastern Louisiana dropped MU all the way to 41^st in www.kenpom.com, and made MU only a 3-point favorite Monday against Butler, despite Butler dropping to 79^th in www.kenpom.com after their 15-point loss to Xavier.

An upset against Butler could be a neutral court loss to a Non-top 50 team come Selection Sunday, and would saddle MUs RPI with the record of consolation opponent Mississippi State (132^nd in Value Add) on Tuesday at 1:30 on ESPN2, rather than a “nothing to lose” chance at UNC Tuesday at 7 on ESPN.

So while I do believe UNC is vulnerable early this year, the Butler game is a huge game for MU.

BUTLER PREVIEW

At the beginning of the season Value Add rated Butler as the 89^th best team in the country, 10 spots below where www.kenpom.com has them now.  Value Add identified just two Butler players as legitimate BCS-level starters in Rotnei Clark and Andrew Smith, and rated Khyle Marshall and Roosevelt Jones as strong BCS-level bench players.  Those four have performed about where expected through two games, but the surprise has been freshman Kellen Durham who was rated just outside the top 1000 (top 25% of all players) but has scored 14.5 points per game on 4 of 11 treys.  In order of preseason Value Add, here are how the top players have performed:

268. Rotnei Clarke, 6-foot-0 SR, preseason 268^th best player, 14 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists per game

381. Andrew Smith, 6-foot-11 SR, 381^st, 4.5 points, 8 rebounds per game

468. Khyle Marshall, 6-foot-6 JR, 468^th, 10.5 points, 4 rebounds per game

673. Roosevelt Jones, 6-foot-4 SO, 673^rd, 4.5 points, 3 rebounds per game

1007. Kellen Durham (6-foot-6), who has averaged 14.5 points per game largely due to hitting 4 of 11 treys.

We know Brad Stevens gets more out of his teams than the sum of its parts, so only being a projected 3-point favorite is a big concern.  Being upset on a neutral court by Butler would clearly signal that Marquette is a bubble team.  However, with an entire roster of top 1000 players, a solid MU win could show the team was just still making some adjustments to playing.

There are encouraging signs with the new papers shoring up the defensive boards, and the balance looking very good.  With two games under their belts, Monday is MUs first fork in the road to either take the overall play to another level to take care of Butler give Davante another shot at UNC, or take the other fork which may well lead to a nervous Selection Sunday to keep the streak of invites alive.

Gardner scores 18 and five others make important contributions to let MU escape late against SE Louisiana and go 2-0

After lowly Southeastern Louisiana pulled to within 53-51 with just 4:13 to play, Davante Gardner worked inside on consecutive trips in the next minute to finish with 18 points in just 21 minutes and help Marquette finally pull away for a 64-53 win.

The one strength SE Louisiana has is that www.kenpom.com ranks them as one of the best 40 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and MU had only 4 steals in the game until Cadougan stole one at the end.  When MU cannot get transition baskets and has to win half court, it seems clear Gardner can be the unstoppable force as he showed tonight.

However, the quick Value Add rating (this is based on a much simpler game formula that will not exactly reflect the season ratings in a few weeks) calculated that the top six players on the team were very balanced.  Gardner had an 8.3% Value Add, Chris Otule was at a very strong 5.1% and the other four starters were in between them.  A rating of more than 3% is a solid BCS Starter, so these were six strong performances in a low scoring game.

One interesting note is on the number of possessions used by player (these can be fractions if one player misses a shot and another grabs an offensive rebound, etc.).  Gardner use 14 possessions, Vander Blue used 12 possessions and everyone else was below 8.  Obviously Gardner had better results on 8 of 14 shooting, while Blue struggled again at 1 of 7 with 3 turnovers.  However, Blue's ability to draw fouls and hit all four free throws while grabbing 5 more defensive rebounds did make him a valuable contributor despite the shooting woes.

Still, the team will have to step it up next Monday in Hawaii against Butler with a potential next game against UNC.  Here is the Value Add breakdown on each player in order of Total Value for the game.

vs. SE Louisiana	value add	def sub	Total Value	Key Notes
Davante Gardner, F	8.0	-0.3	8.3	18 pts and 4 OR in 21 minutes - 14 possessions
Jamil Wilson, F	7.0	-1.0	8.0	5 asts and 7 reb despite 2-8 shooting
Junior Cadougan, G	5.3	-1.9	7.2	5 ast only 1 TO and only player with 2 St
Vander Blue, G	5.1	-1.4	6.5	5 DR, 4-4 FT but 1-7 FG & 3 TO, 12 possessions
Trent Lockett, G	5.3	-0.4	5.7	6-6 FT
Chris Otule, C	3.7	-1.5	5.1	4-6 FG & 5 Reb
Juan Anderson, F	2.1	-0.1	2.2	2-4 FG & 2 Reb
Jake Thomas, G	0.7	-0.3	1.0	2-3 FT & 2 Reb
Jamal Ferguson, F	0.0	-0.9	0.9	1 Reb & 1 St
Steve Taylor Jr., F	0.4	-0.3	0.6	2 Pt, 2 Reb, 1 Ast in 7 minutes
Derrick Wilson, G	0.3	0.0	0.3	2 Ast, 0 TO

Value Add picks Jamil as SOG - but it is close as MU shows balance in 84-63 opening win over Colgate

In a scene that may be familiar later in the season, the player with the biggest numbers on the court (Colgate's Murphy Burnatowski) was wearing an opposing jersey, but MU showed the incredible depth that should characterize this team.  Burnatowski torched MU for a 20/10 game, much as he did to Illinois in Colgate's home opener, but MU prevailed 84-63 with 11 players adding Value according to Value Add.

Mount St. Marys	Value Add	Def Sub	Total Value	Key Notes
Jamil Wilson, F	9.8	-1.7	11.5	15 Pts on 7 shots, only 1 DR
Trent Lockett, G	4.7	-4.3	9.0	7 Reb & 5 St
Juan Anderson, F	4.9	-2.6	7.5	7 DR & 2 St
Davante Gardner, F	6.0	-1.0	7.0	14 Pts, 4 OR
Junior Cadougan, G	5.4	-0.1	5.5	2 treys, 3/0 Ast/TO
Jake Thomas, G	2.2	-1.3	3.5	4 DR, 1 ST & 4 Ast
Vander Blue, G	3.2	-0.1	3.3	2 of 8 shooting; 2 TO
Derrick Wilson, G	2.7	0.0	2.7	5/0 Ast/TO
Chris Otule, C	2.4	-0.2	2.6	5 of 5 FG, but 0 Reb held down
Jamal Ferguson, F	0.5	-0.9	1.4	1 Stl plus 2 of 3 FG and 1 Reb
Steve Taylor Jr., F	0.9	-0.1	1.0	2 of 3 FG, 1 Reb, but 4 Fouls

Another thing that may happen this year is a lot more discussion over who the Stud of the Game was on a given night. The opener Sunday started with Jamil Wilson looking everything like an NBA prospect - draining two quick treys en route to a very efficient night in which he scored 15 points on only seven shots.

However, while J. Wilson is very deserving, we noted this off season that defensive rebounding was the one thing that could destroy MU's season this year as the team was already one of the worst in the country last year and has now lost one of the top rebounding forwards in the country in the Dallas Maverick's Jae Crowder.  Davante Gardner, J. Wilson and Chris Otule all had very poor defensive rebounding numbers in the past, although at least Otule has been able to box opponents out to give teammates a chance.  Sunday Gardner grabbed just 2 defensive rebounds, J. Wilson 1 and Otule 0.

We did give kudos to Buzz for getting two of the top defensive rebounding guards in the country in transfers Trent Lockett and Jake Thomas, and both of them grabbed four defensive rebounds in the opener.  When you add Lockett's 7 overall rebounds and 5 steals, he could be considered as a potential Stud of the Game as well and actually that defense gives him the 2nd highest Value Add of the game behind only J. Wilson (www.kenpom.com says Lockett's freshman season is the most similar to Matthews freshman season, so if he can match Matthews' senior year as a 6-foot-5 3rd guard it would be a huge boost).

However, the nicest surprise of the night was Juan Anderson, who had a disappointing year last year after being the top rated player in the incoming class.  With defensive rebounding being the one area of concern, Anderson's 7 defensive rebounds helped clean the glass and with two steals and good offense, it would be hard to argue with him as the game's top player even though Value Add leaves him slightly behind the top two.  Anderson did go down holding his shoulder on one play, but thankfully came back into the game later.

Davante Gardner, who Value Add projected as the top returning player, was next at 4th in Value Add behind more dominance on the offensive glass with 4 offensive rebounds en route to 14 points.

Granted it was against a weaker defense, but Junior Cadougan and Derrick Wilson combining for 8 assists and 0 turnovers was a great sign, as was the fact that freshmen Steve Taylor and Jamal Ferguson both got into the game and hit two of three shots and grabbed a rebound - with Taylor in particular looking like he is big enough to help take care of the defensive boards.  However, Ferguson snuck ahead of Taylor in Value Add due to a late steal and dunk at the other end.

The only disappointment of the night was that there were no signs of Vander Blue's reportedly improved shot.  He went 2 of 8 from the floor and turned it over twice, and with Todd Mayo out for at least the first semester, we have to hope Blue can explode as many anticipate.

It is only one game, but overall a lot of nice balance and hopes that the new players can take care of the defensive glass.  Tomorrow night (Tuesday) at 8 p.m. CT Marquette will host Southeast Louisiana in the second game of the season.

Ship Happens

While last night's aborted Carrier Classic was certainly a disappointment, it also means Marquette can add another game to the schedule. It isn't common, but consider St. Mary's in 2010-11. The Gaels added a game with Weber State to their schedule in March in hopes that getting to 25 wins would get them into the NCAA Tournament. With that in mind, I thought I'd take a look at possible dates and options for Marquette if they chose to try to fill the void left by the missed opportunity with Ohio State.

There are a few main questions to be answered before scheduling a game. Which teams have room for an extra game in their schedule? What dates are available that don't conflict with other games or finals? Where will the game be played, and who will cover it? With those factors in mind, here are some possibilities.

I tried to find gaps in the schedule with at least 5 days off for Marquette so there wasn't too quick a turnaround between a new game and the existing schedule. For Marquette, dates that work include December 4th or 5th and January 8th, 9th, 22nd, or 23rd.

If Marquette attempted to add a buy game, the Bradley Center is open December 4th and January 9th. For neutral court venues, the United Center in Chicago is open January 8th, Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is open December 4th, January 9th, and January 22nd, and the Scottrade Center in St. Louis is open December 4th, December 5th, January 8th, January 9th, and December 23rd.

For television coverage, NBC Sports doesn't list any current programming on either December date and doesn't have their January schedule up yet. If we could attract a high-major opponent, they would likely be available as a carrier. With the NHL still locked out, they will likely be looking for programming. So the only question is, who would be available to play? Here's a few options to fill that void:

Kansas State: The Wildcats would be available December 5th. Might they be willing to play a neutral-court game in St. Louis? It seems like a lock that NBC Sports would broadcast the game. The drawback is the game would probably feature a majority K-State crowd.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies would be available December 4th or 5th. A neutral court game in Indianapolis would probably draw, but what about starting a home-and-home? Play at their place first and allow Davante Gardner and Jamal Ferguson to play in front of their families.

UW-Milwaukee: The reason we aren't playing Milwaukee this year is because of the Carrier Classic, so it would be fitting to put them back on the schedule. Their schedule would line up for a January 9th meeting at the Bradley Center, possibly as a buy game before Marquette tries to renegotiate a series next year.

Cleveland State: The Vikings might be too big a name for a buy game, but aren't big enough to draw neutral court eyes. If the price were affordable, it might be nice to give Milwaukee native and CSU starting PG Charlie Lee a chance to play in front of his friends and family at the BC on December 4th.

Marquette alum gather around the country to see Carrier Classic vs. Ohio State and unveiling of new shoes, but game is cancelled

Marquette alums around the country did a great job of using the opener vs. Ohio State to get-together.  However, once the opening tip was halted due to the wet court, there was no way either AD or coach was going to let the game be played considering the impact that injuries to Sullinger, Otule and Gardner had on OSU and MU last year.  Can you imagine the comments if Larry Williams said to go ahead and get the game in and then we lost someone for the year?

I happened to be traveling to Boston, and a quick check of the Marquette alumni page resulted in me connecting with Brad Hogan (standing in back of photo above), the co-Chair of the Boston MU Club.  I was able to join more than 20 MU Club members - to only 4 Ohio State alums despite their club picking the same location of the Courtside Restaurant in Cambridge.

The cancellation meant that the entire Cracked Sidewalks staff is tied in their predictions (click here), and Marquette is 0-0 until Sunday's 3:30 opener.  We also know what the new shoes look like, and that there were no tricks on the starting line-up as Buzz put Cadougan, Blue, Lockett, Jamil Wilson and Otule on the court for the opening tip.  Perhaps the most interesting obscure note of the night was that one gambling line put an over-under of 12.5 on how many points sharp-shooter Jake Thomas would have scored tonight.  While Jake appears to have the best outside shot at MU since Novak, noone really expected him on the court much so it will be interesting if someone knows something we do not.

The Big East had a good start to opening day when UConn upset Michigan State, but Georgetown was also cancelled after playing a pretty even stretch with Florida (trailed 27-23).  Rutgers was upset at home.  One Value Add note is that the team that Value Add says is most overrated (top 25 in polls but 96th best team in Value Add, was upset by South Alabama.  I did get inquiries on if the team ratings at www.valueaddbasketball.com included injured players such as Gasser for Wisconsin.  If you click on www.valueaddbasketball.com and type in the team's name in the search field you will see the ratings and all the players I included.  If a player is listed, then he is in the total, so Wisconsin will be much lower without Gasser, just as UCLA will with Muhammed being declared ineligible, and Marquette will drop some with Mayo out.

We will all try it again Sunday!

It's the shoes

Marquette was to unveil new shoes for tonight's game against Ohio State which was subsequently cancelled due to weather and playing conditions on the USS Yorktown.

2012-2013 Predictions

Anything interesting happening today?

The college hoops basketball season always takes FOREVER. However, Marquette basketball is finally back. Tonight, Marquette takes on Ohio State in the Carrier Classic, on the deck of the USS Yorkdown in South Carolina. Game time is 6 pm on NBC Sports. This entire thing is amazing.

Pictured: The awesomeness of today

The start of the season means that it is yet again time for the Cracked Sidewalks staff to take a turn at prognosticating what the new season of Marquette basketball has in store for us. Before we get on with the annual event, we can turn back the clock to predictions of the past.

2006-07 CS staff said 23.8-7.2 (9.8-6.2); actual record 23-8 (10-6)
2007-08 CS staff said 23.2-6.8 (12.5-5.5); actual record 22-8 (11-7)
2008-09 CS staff said 23-8 (11.4-6.6); actual record 23-8 (12-6)
2009-10 CS staff said 16.5-13.5 (7.8-10.2); actual record 20-10 (11-7)
2010-11 CS staff said 21.2-9.8 (11.1-6.9); actual record 18-13 (9-9)
2011-12 CS staff said 23-8 (12.3-5.7); actual record 25-6 (14-4)

Despite being more positive than previous years, we underestimated how good MU was going to be last year. This year there is a little more bearishness with an overall prediction of 21.5-9.5 (11.7-6.3), so let's hope for more of the same with this year's predictions.

Opponent	Location	Rob	Tim	Kevin	John	Jamie	Alan
Ohio State	N	L	L	L	L	W	W
Maui Classic (Colgate)	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Southeastern LA	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Maui Classic (Butler)	N	W	W	W	W	W	W
Maui Classic (UNC / Miss St)	N	L	L	L	W	L	L
Maui Classic (TBD)	N	L	L	W	L	W	W
UMBC	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Florida	A	L	L	L	L	L	L
Wisconsin	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Savannah State	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Green Bay	A	W	W	W	W	W	W
LSU	H	L	W	W	W	W	W
North Carolina Central	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown	H	L	W	W	L	W	W
Pittsburgh	A	L	W	L	L	L	L
Seton Hall	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cincinnati	A	L	L	L	L	L	L
Providence	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
USF	H	W	L	W	W	W	W
Louisville	A	L	L	L	L	L	W
USF	A	L	W	L	W	L	L
DePaul	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown	A	L	L	L	L	L	L
Pittsburgh	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Seton Hall	A	W	W	W	W	W	W
Villanova	A	L	W	W	W	L	W
Syracuse	H	W	W	W	W	L	W
Notre Dame	H	W	W	L	W	W	W
Rutgers	A	W	W	W	L	W	L
St. Johns	A	W	L	L	W	L	W
	Consensus	Rob	Tim	Kevin	John	Jamie	Alan
Wins	21.5	19	22	21	22	21	24
Losses	9.5	12	9	10	9	10	7
Conference Wins	11.7	11	13	11	12	10	13
Conference Losses	6.3	7	5	7	6	8	5

Marquette makes Basketball Times semi-decennial analytical ranking for first time

Every five years Basketball Times weighs through who the top basketball programs are in the country based on a 10 year analysis of winning percentage, "cleanliness" of the program, graduation rates, players in the NBA and academic reputation (using US News and World Report), and head coaching ranking. 

Thirty-three schools made the list this year with a minimum requirement of winning 2/3 of their games in the last ten years. Thanks to the efforts of Buzz Williams and Tom Crean the last 10 years, Marquette has qualified on the top programs list for the very first time in this evaluation.  MU finished 23rd overall while Duke finished 1st for the third straight time. 

The top ten overall programs ranked as follows:

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Gonzaga
4. Davidson
5. Wisconsin-madison
6. Butler
7. Michigan State
8. Kansas
9. BYU
10. Creighton

You will note some heavy weight programs are not listed here and the simple reason is because they had some bad years that pulled them out.  The top criteria is a requirement to win 2/3 of your games during the previous 10 seasons.  UCLA, Indiana, etc are out for that reason.  Kentucky suffers because of some poor seasons prior to Calipari returning. Louisville, for the first time since 1997, is back in the rankings. Others, like UCONN, took a major hit because of coaching change which diluted their ranking in one of the six criteria.

Marquette rankings in each category:

• Buzz Williams ranked 20th out of 33 coaches.  Legendary coach Stew Morrill finished 15th.
• MU 28th best winning % of the 33 programs
• MU 11th of 33 for players in the NBA
• MU 19th of 33 in graduation rate
• MU 21st of 33 in Academic reputation
• MU 20th of 33 in "Cleanliness" of programm

Good read if you have the time. 

JaJuan Johnson Picks Marquette

Heavily recruited wing scorer JaJuan Johnson from Southwind Prep in Memphis has verbally committed to the Marquette Golden Eagles, ending a tense recruitment. Alabama and Miami were the other finalists, and over the past few months Johnson also eliminated Florida, Texas, and Louisville from his list.

Johnson is rated as highly as #33 in the 2013 class by Scout and according to the Summer RSCI rankings is the #57 player in his class, giving Buzz Williams his third top-60 recruit for 2013, along with #52 Deonte Burton and #60 Duane Wilson. To put that in perspective, Marquette has only had 2 RSCI top-60 recruits (Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan) in the past 7 years.

Marquette's newest assistant coach, Isaac Chew, was reportedly the lead recruiter for Johnson, showing that Buzz's tenacity in bringing Chew to Milwaukee is already paying off. The Warriors have also secured verbal commitments from JUCO All-American Jameel McKay and New Mexico native John Dawson.

Johnson was originally touted as a long-range sniper, but has diversified his game in the past two years. He can now get to the rim and effectively uses his long, wiry frame. To succeed in the Big East, Johnson will likely need to add some muscle to his 6'5" 185-lb frame, but he was the leading scorer for the Bluff City Legends in the Nike EYBL league over the summer. His shooting is definitely something Buzz Williams' team could use as he displayed a high, quick release in the EYBL.

In other recruiting news, Marquette is hosting 6'11" center Joel Embiid this weekend. It will be an excellent opportunity for the young man to see Buzz in action as Marquette hosts George Mason for a scrimmage at the Al today. Embiid is close with Milwaukee Bucks forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who introduced Embiid to the game of basketball just over a year ago at his Basketball Without Borders camp in Africa. Embiid is also considering Florida, Kansas, Texas, and Virginia.

Lazar Hayward traded to the Houston Rockets

Lazar Hayward was traded to the Houston Rockets tonight as part of a bigger deal that saw James Harden going to the Rockets for Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb.

Marquette drops out of AP, ESPN and Value Add Top 25; opens with #4 Ohio State (Craft 8th best player and Thomas 12th)

I can tell basketball season is back upon us when I post an article and realize one of our other writers was writing simultaneously!  Before looking at this post, please read the great take on the tough job of Athletic Director below by clicking here.

The preseason polls are out, and Marquette is out of both top 25s but getting a chance to make an immediate mark vs. Ohio State on November 9 at 6 p.m. CST on NBC Sports.

The Buckeyes are ranked #4 by both the coaches and writers.  While Value Add ranks them slightly lower at #10, it also indicates that they should have the #2 duo in the country.  Aaron Craft projects as the 8^th best player in the country, while Deshaun Thomas ranks as the 12^th best player.  Marquette is deeper, as the Buckeyes only have seven top 1000 players while Marquette has ten.

Both the AP and ESPN agreed with Value Add’s appraisal of Indiana as the #1 team in the country this year.  In most cases the coaches and writers poll was pretty close to Value Add.

A few changes in the past couple of months – three players were mistakenly flagged after last season as going to the NBA but stayed and are now being added back to the database.  Jeff Withey still being at Kansas pushed them up to 7^th place and temporarily bumped Marquette out of the Top 25.  Sean Kilpatrick of Cincinnati and Michael Snaer at Florida State were not enough to get either team back into the top 25.

While I doubt Kentucky will be able to reload this year for a title run and believe their #3 is too high, I am sure they will be higher than Value Adds 18^th, and Value Add projects they are the frontrunner for the 2014 title.  I am sure UNC will likewise outperform their raw Value Add.

My question is whether or not UCLA is actually this year’s Kentucky – a team that could be at the Final Four behind incredible freshmen.  It was UCLA that beat out Kentucky for Shabazz Muhammad and with fellow freshman Kyle Anderson they could be much better than their 13^th rank – and Value Add calculates that duo could approach the level of Wall and Cousins for their freshman season.

The following are my notes on all top 25 teams.

And my headline was a teaser.  While Kansas did bump Marquette out of the top 25 temporarily, when the NCAA ruled that Ricardo Ledo must sit out this year it bumped Providence down to 33^rd and put Marquette back in the top 25.  The fact that Kris Dunn is supposed to be out for the 1^st semester due to surgery drops them to 58^th until his return.

TEAM	Value Add	AP	ESPN	Notes on differences
Indiana	1	1	1	Said this the day after the title
Louisville	6	2	2	Marra's injury dropped them from 3rd to 6th
Kentucky	18	3	3	Sure they will be closer to 3rd, but believe a year between title chances
Ohio State	10	4	4	Only UCLA better duo than #8 Craft/#12 Thomas
Michigan	27	5	5	Only UCLA & Ohio St. have better duo than #22 Burke & #42 McGary, Value Add just doesn't show depth
North Carolina State	4	6	6
Kansas	7	7	7	Jeff Withey IS still on roster
Duke	14	8	8	Perhaps a little reputation?
Syracuse	22	9	9	See Duke above?
Florida	15	10	10
North Carolina	31	11	12	Like Kentucky, hard to measure but need a year to rebuild
Arizona	12	12	11	2014 National Contender
UCLA	2	13	13	FR Muhammad and Anderson make them this year's Kentucky - could be Wall-Cousins level
Michigan State	9	14	14
Missouri	16	15	17
Creighton	21	16	15
Memphis	3	17	16	Probably too high, but 4 juniors rank higher than any MU player
UNLV	8	18	19	4 top 200 players, one from each class
Baylor	5	19	18	#38 Heslip, #52 Jackson, #74 Austin
San Diego State	54	20	20	only 2 players in top 400, none in top 100
Gonzaga	32	21	22
Notre Dame	17	22	23
Wisconsin	23	23	21
Cincinnati	43	24		Sean Kilpatrick IS still on roster, but still don't have them ranked
Florida State	96	25	24	Michael Snaer IS still on roster, don't know value of 7-foot-3 Boris Bojanovsky
Texas	11		24	People don't know how much freshman improve - sophomores McClellon #36, Holmes #99, Kabongo #157, Bond #321
Pittsburgh	13			Jump sounds too high, but don't expect 2012 repeat
Minnesota	19
Arkansas	20			Is BJ Young really a top 10 player?
Georgetown	24			If Otto Porter really a top 10 player?
Marquette	25			dropped out due to Kansas, then back ahead of Providence

Below are the current top 50 players according to Value Add - and as always corrections are welcome - just email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com or send through www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Rnk	Top 50 players	Team
1	Zeller, Cody	Indiana
2	McDermott, Doug	Creighton
3	Muhammad, Shabazz	UCLA
4	Porter, Otto	Georgetown
5	Anderson, Kyle	UCLA
6	McCollum, CJ	Lehigh
7	Young, BJ	Arkansas
8	Craft, Aaron	Ohio St.
9	Perry, Kendrick	Youngstown St.
10	Galloway, Langston	Saint Joseph's
11	Roberson, Andre	Colorado
12	Thomas, Deshaun	Ohio St.
13	Medlin, Preston	Utah St.
14	Pangos, Kevin	Gonzaga
15	Canaan, Isaiah	Murray St.
16	Noel, Nerlens	Kentucky
17	Pressey, Phil	Missouri
18	Dieng, Gorgui	Louisville
19	Cooley, Jack	Notre Dame
20	Napier, Shabazz	Connecticut
21	Massenat, Frantz	Drexel
22	Burke, Trey	Michigan
23	Tuttle, Seth	Northern Iowa
24	Mitchell, Tony	North Texas
25	Wolters, Nate	South Dakota St.
26	Kilpatrick, Sean	Cincinnati
27	Releford, Trevor	Alabama
28	Caldwell-Pope, Kentavious	Georgia
29	Stoglin, Terrell	Maryland
30	Boynton, Kenny	Florida
31	Withey, Jeff	Kansas
32	Broekhoff, Ryan	Valparaiso
33	McGruder, Rodney	Kansas St.
34	Wyatt, Khalif	Temple
35	Harrison, D'Angelo	St. John's
36	McClellan, Sheldon	Texas
37	Sobolewski, Dave	Northwestern
38	Heslip, Brady	Baylor
39	Patterson, Lamar	Pittsburgh
40	Dellavedova, Matthew	St. Mary's
41	Williams, Chaz	Massachusetts
42	McGary, Mitch	Michigan
43	Threatt, Jarvis	Delaware
44	Dixon, Michael	Missouri
45	O'Neale, Royce	Denver
46	Kazemi, Arsalan	Rice
47	Cobbs, Justin	California
48	Covington, Robert	Tennessee St.
49	Johnson, Kerron	Belmont
50	Henton, LaDontae	Providence

The audacity of an Athletic Director

Recently a former NFL player with a law degree who is now an Athletic Director at a high profile school had some public comments about his high profile coach.  Larry Williams you say?  Yes, but not in this instance.  Actually it was Pat Haden at USC this week (he has done this on several occasions as have other Athletic Directors...it is part of their job to answer the media and that can lead to sticky situations dependent on where you stand.)

"Lane has had some missteps," says Haden. "The job of head coach at USC is more than just Xs and O's. You have a bunch of people you represent, from past players and alums, and it's a different place from where he's been before. We're held to a higher standard here, and some of the stuff is petty, in my estimation."

"He's definitely a work in progress.  It can be challenging, but I think we're making progress with Lane," says Haden. "And I agree with you; I think he has a big future in front of him and a long runway."

Important to note that Haden also noted he works with his coach every day to make him "better".  Sound familiar?   "I know he's got a reputation, a target on him, and I talk to him every single day about the best way to act," says Haden

First off, can you imagine the nuclear reaction by some of our fan base if Larry Williams said this about Buzz?  More importantly, are they wrong?  Comments like those of Haden's can appear foreign to someone that hasn't worked in a high profile job that is scrutinized nearly daily by sports radio, newspaper columnists, bloggers, fans, etc.  Let's face it, the manager of commodities broker isn't hitting the newspaper nor are those of someone who is marketing sports television services.  Most people are used to comments in private, or constructive criticism that isn't there for all to see.  That's not the case in the sports or entertainment world and should be the first lens applied when viewing AD and coach comments...or for that matter, coach - player comments.  It's a different world.  It's also called BEING A LEADER!  Kiffin makes more money than Haden and if continues to win, wields tremendous power.   That doesn't mean Haden doesn't have a leadership mandate to build his direct reports, keep them in check and ultimately make sure the university's mission is being followed.  Schools that let the coach have all consuming power usually elicit two things...success on the field and trouble elsewhere. 

I've had many a conversation with AD's over the years at Pac 12, Big East, ACC schools and the tough balancing act they have.  A few weeks ago I met with a Big East AD for a number of hours and we discussed this very thing.  Balancing fans expectations, most of which are straight forward and practical but intermixed with those that believe the coach is sacred and should never be challenged..ever.  On the flip side this AD also has to make sure the school doesn't get in trouble, keeps a clean perception with the rest of the alumni and the surrounding community....most of who don't care about sports, which oh by the way is the majority of people and bears out in survey after survey.  The problem is that you can't tell that to an impassioned sports fan because they don't want to hear it.  As this AD told me, the most difficult folks to deal with are those that are so emotional about it they will do anything to win.  They don't care about the perceptions or the ramifications, just win baby.  If something happens, that mess can be addressed if need be.  

No one said an AD job is easy.  Especially when, God forbid, he comes from Notre Dame and has been instructed by the leadership to make sure the school is recognized for success on the fields and courts of play and not recognized for areas that call the program into question.  He has a tough job, but plenty of schools have been successful in the approach he and the administration are taking. 

What are we, what should we be, how do we get there?

If you haven't had a chance to read the latest article on Marquette hoops in Marquette Magazine, I strongly suggest you do.  The article, entitled "Playing Old School" by MU's own Dan McGrath, focuses attention on new AD Larry Williams and his future view of MU athletics, specifically basketball and the desire to do things with integrity in light of some unflattering occurrences. 

The article has already revealed the ongoing fracture some MU fans have about certain MU officials, and specifically Larry Williams and Father Pilarz.   There is one camp of alumnae and fans that believe the new administration is somehow handcuffing Buzz Williams and his ability to put a successful product on the basketball court.  The program will no be able to compete and the new reality is that the only way to win is the current approach.  Larry Williams has been dubbed program killer, a Notre Dame elitist from a school that no longer can win with that mentality (ahem...Notre Dame is 5th in the nation in football right now).

A recent blurb by Jeff Goodman on his CBS blog only added to the fire when he said "Buzz Williams has done a superb job at Marquette, but he and athletic director Larry Williams aren't exactly bosom buddies and there's no telling how long he'll remain in Milwaukee."  Of course, back in the Tom Crean era some fans would say this would be Crean putting words into the bloggers mouth, but in this case apparently it is Jeff Goodman doing some serious sleuthing.  Considering Goodman's hits and misses this past season, who knows how accurate this is, but we'll assume he is right and address that a bit later.   

The other camp of graduates and fans have asked why are we destined to fail and become second rate simply by having a tighter leash on the program?  Does one path lead to the other?  When viewed through the lens of multiple off the court issues that put MU on the front page of the Chicago Tribune twice and on the evening news several times in the last year for embarrassing indiscretions involving an athletics team from MU can make folks feel a bit....squirmy (note that some fans like to pretend it was the tennis or track team and not members of a more prominent team).  Winning matters, but so does integrity.  Just win baby doesn't sit well with this group of fans, it's a lazy cop out and an excuse.  It is reaching for the ground, not the stars...it is harder to reach for the stars.

So who are we?  What should we be?  Is there only one way to win?  Is it wrong to aspire to do it the right way?  What is the right way in today's day and age?  All questions asked before and asked continually by our university and others around the country. All questions I have asked here on this blog several times. Let's look at the USA Today top 25 poll that came out today.  A number of programs on that list that almost universally fans will say don't do it the right way the majority of the time.  Of course there are also programs on that list that most would say strive to a higher ideal and succeed at it most of the time, even if they screw up on occasion.  It's impossible to be perfect all the time, it simply is.  Every program will have an indiscretion, sometimes a series of them in a short amount of time.  That's the case for MU recently, but fortunately the indiscretions have been rare in the long run and I think all of us would like to keep it that way. It is clear that Pilarz and Larry Williams feel that way, along with many influential alumni.

So is it wrong to aspire to be a quality athletic program AND also do well in the classroom and the community?  No one said it was going to be easy or perfect.  Yes, Notre Dame has student athlete issues, so does Stanford, Indiana, Duke, Wake Forest, BYU and others.  For trying to hold to a higher standard, when they fail they are ridiculed. Blogs, sports columns, fan forums explode about such and such Duke player from 2004 that screwed up or a Notre Dame football player from 2006 and the screams of hypocrisy echo aloud. It's easy to pick on those that try to aspire, but fail.  They are taking a risk to do better, to act in a higher regard and when they fail the critics come out of the woodwork.  It is certainly easier to take the lower path of standards and if you fail, oh well. What is the proper approach?  What should we be doing?

So what do you want to be?  I contend we can be a top notch program with Buzz Williams at the helm and also do it the right way in both reality and perception.  In many respects we are doing it the right way, but the perception has taken a beating (rightfully so) and we all know perception and reality are often confused.  MU, Buzz, and the program need an uneventful season. A nice, quiet, get the job done season would be very nice this year.  Go about your business, respect your coach and your university, perform well on the court, perform better off of it. 

At the end of the day, MU isn't going to have Buzz Williams forever, nor are they going to have Larry Williams and Father Pilarz.  If Buzz goes, there will be another basketball coach.  If Larry Williams goes, there will be another AD just as there will be another president at MU.  People change, but institutions change far less.  It is clear that MU wants to win, but to win in the right way.  For some, they feel this is pushing Buzz out the door or tying his hands. "If Buzz leaves, the end is near.  It's all over, Loyola of Chicago here we come."  Just stop.  Have faith in Buzz.  He's a good man, strong religious conviction, believes in his players, believes in discipline, has a core set of standards that should align well with the university's mission...some have argued it fits squarely into what he is all about. 

Therefore, it is not wrong to aspire to do multiple things well and to keep integrity as the guiding principle, even if at times we fail in that regard.  It is not wrong to hold people (players, coaches, administrators, fans) accountable.  Father Pilarz and Larry Williams are not out to destroy or cut the program down to size.  These are not stupid men. Buzz can work in this environment and succeed.  Or we can continue to read little blurbs in blogs about the AD and the program and wonder who provided that information.  It is clear the university is saying we want to win, but we will win in a specific way.  That bet has been made.  Buzz can make this work.  It is up to him.  He will stay as long as MU will have him...well MU has said they will have him but it will be with conditions.  Those conditions are part of what Buzz tells us he is all about so it's time to put all this crap behind us, get on board together as a fan base, a team, a coach, players, university administration and prove it can be done.  There are schools doing it today.  MU has done it in the recent past with Buzz at the helm and prior...we are not perfect, we never will be, but there is no shame in striving for a higher ideal.

Jake Thomas dunk contest win points again to balanced MU attack; Only Michigan St., Indiana, UCLA & Arizona can match MUs 10 top 1000 players

Thank you to Midwest Ballers for the mix from Friday's Midnight Madness, where Jake Thomas probably shocked many readers by winning the dunk contest. And while some may certainly have judged Jamil Wilson's between the legs dunk as the best on the attached footage, I hope the video will show that Jake could be a lot more than just the best pure 3-point shooter at Marquette since Steve Novak.

Buzz's two transfers are MUs only two players to have been among the national leaders in 3 of the main 8 categories on www.kenpom.com as shown on the table below (last year NBC Sports picked up on my post here noting that Jae Crowder may be the best overall player in the country for ranking so high in 5 of 8).   Trent Lockett is the name that jumps out, as he has been among the best in the nation in three categories (eFG% of best shooters, Stl% as best at steals and FTR as best at getting to the line for free throws).  Jake Thomas is all the way in the top 100 in shooting (98th in eFG%), but also in the top 500 in protecting the ball (Turnover Ratio) and just makes the top 500 on getting to the line (Free Throw Ratio).  Thomas is also the only player besides Davante Gardner to make it into the top 500 in Overall Offensive Rating (ORtg).  Like Jimmy Butler, Gardner has had consecutive years in the top 20 while not yet being appreciated by fans.

8 key stats	MU players who've been in top 500
eFG%	Thomas 98th in 2010, Lockett 286th and 335th in 2011
OR%	Gardner 15th*, 37th in 2011*
DR%	No top 500 players on MU roster
AstR	Cadougan 63rd, 153rd in 2011, Lockett 452nd in 2011
TOR	Thomas 222nd in 2011, Jamil 469th
Blk%	Otule 35th*, Jamil 135th
Stl%	Derrick 68th*, Blue 323rd in 2011, Lockett 396th and 350th in 2011
FTR	Otule 14th*, Gardner 33rd* and 44th in 2011*, Lockett 91st and 350th in 2011, Blue 234th, Cadougan 329th, Thomas 498th in 2010
Ortg	Gardner 3rd and 19th in 2011, Thomas 268th in 2010 and 478th in 2011

* - indicates did not play 40% of minutes so not listed as leader at www.kenpom.com, but this is the rank the player would have had with enough minutes (e.g. if neither Gardner or Otule were hurt last year).

Certainly some will be quick to note their initial skepticism over Thomas ability to contribute at the Big East level after piling up his top 100 shooting year against lesser competition.  However, when we then turn to www.valueaddbasketball.com, which adjusts for competition, Jake Thomas is still a top 700 offensive player (top 28% of all D1 players) and a top 1000 overall player even after accounting for South Dakota's weak defense.

I do not know if that means Thomas will be in Buzz's final 7 or 8 man rotation or not - but I am very confident he would be in the 7-man rotation for most BCS schools.  The beauty of Marquette this year is the depth, which really may be the best in the country.  As you can see from the table below, only 28 teams in the country have even seven players among the best 1000 in the country, so just about anyone on Marquette's roster could be in the rotation of any other team.

We do not start the year with a top 100 player, so someone on the team will have to go to the next level to enable us to go up against teams with one or more top 100 players - but noone can go deeper.  Trent Lockett was not a top 1000 player last year mainly because of a very high turnover rate on a terrible team, but assuming our packed roster can actually catch passes, he should shoot way up in light of all the areas in which he is so strong (also Lockett and Thomas are excellent defensive rebounders for guards, even though not in the top 500 since that list is almost all front line players.)

Derrick Wilson is not in the top 1000, but as the 68th best steals man in the country last year, he at very least has a very strong role to play.  Everyone else on the 2013 roster is in the top 1000.  We knew we had the dynamic duo of Crowder and DJO last year.  The fun this year is that while I believe Gardner will be our best player, it really could be anybody.  MU has a roster full of players that are very good, and if a couple step up to be great, then this will be a very good team indeed.  If I had asked before the dunk contest who the three most likely players to win would be, I doubt Jake Thomas would have been one of your choices.  Guessing at who MUs top three players will be this year could be just as tough, in a very good way.

Here is the list of the only 45 teams with at least seven players in the top 1000 - and a column for how many top 100 players each team has as well.  The list is periodically updated at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

	Team	Top 100	Top 1000
1	Michigan St.	2	11
2	Indiana	3	10
3	UCLA	2	10
4	Arizona	0	10
5	Marquette	0	10
6	Memphis	3	9
7	Louisville	2	9
8	Baylor	2	9
9	Nevada Las Vegas	1	9
10	Georgetown	1	9
11	Alabama	1	9
12	Maryland	1	9
13	Mississippi	0	9
14	Virginia	0	9
15	Pittsburgh	2	8
16	North Carolina St.	2	8
17	Florida	2	8
18	Texas	2	8
19	Syracuse	1	8
20	Arkansas	1	8
21	Providence	1	8
22	Duke	0	8
23	North Carolina	0	8
24	Texas A&M	0	8
25	Iowa St.	0	8
26	Oklahoma	0	8
27	Harvard	0	8
28	Oklahoma St.	0	8
29	Ohio St.	2	7
30	Notre Dame	2	7
31	Kentucky	1	7
32	Creighton	1	7
33	Minnesota	1	7
34	Kansas	1	7
35	Iowa	1	7
36	Wisconsin	1	7
37	Kansas St.	1	7
38	Stanford	1	7
39	Texas Tech	0	7
40	West Virginia	0	7
41	Rutgers	0	7
42	Georgia Tech	0	7
43	Purdue	0	7
44	Villanova	0	7
45	Oregon	0	7

MU prepares for final run at title in old BE in 2013, and possibly an equally competitive new BE in 2014

With Midnight Madness just one week away, Marquette certainly looks like a team that can finish in the top half of the Big East this year.  Based on www.valueaddbasketball.com, Marquette remains the 25th best team heading into the conference.  While six Big East teams rank even higher, they are very bunched together and MU probably has fewer questions than any team in front of them.

	2013 Big East Standings	Natl
1	Louisville	6
2	Providence	11
3	Pittsburgh	13
4	Notre Dame	17
5	Syracuse	22
6	Georgetown	24
7	Marquette	25
8	Connecticut	38
9	Rutgers	53
10	St. John's	59
11	South Florida	66
12	Villanova	69
13	Seton Hall	86
14	Cincinnati	90
15	DePaul	119
	Conference Average	47

Sure, MU has to replace an incredible duo, but with so much talent moving up MU looks like a top 25 team.  Louisville is the prohibitive favorite, but just had a tough injury, and despite the lofty projections for Providence and Pitt based on Value Add, even it's author has to question if either of those teams can really skyrocket that far ahead of where they were last year.  With the questions on those three, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Georgetown all project BARELY ahead of MU - all within 8 spots - so it is certainly much easier to see MU passing any and all of the six teams in front of them than falling behind many teams behind them.  On paper, this is a seven team race for the final Big East title in the conference we have grown to know - with the single absence of West Virginia.

Will Memphis and Houston keep the Big East among the Elite in 2014?

However, I have to admit with the national potential for MU in 2014, I will be keeping one eye on Memphis, Houston, Central Florida, Temple and SMU.  No greater a number-cruncher than Luke Winn has calculated that the Big East after this year could drop to the 6th best basketball conference, but I was surprised when running the numbers to see that the Value Add projections for next year - even assuming all planned moves happen in time for the 2014 season - actually shows the conference staying just as strong in 2014 as in 2013 based on the average national rankings of all members in Value Add projections.

I ran the longer post below on the ranking of the top 150 teams in the country, and have just updated it based the new signings for Kentucky, South Florida and others this week.  When you look at the Rnk2 number - the most realistic expectation of what the 2014 roster will look like (your projected NBA players go to the draft, but you get the calculated average of the recruits to fill your remaining spots), the Big East actually stays exactly the same with an average national ranking of 47th.

Of course projections are not precise like measuring past performance, and certainly projections a year out are even less so, but here is where the future Big East teams project to rank nationally in 2014 compared to this year.

	2014 Big East Standings	2013 Natl	2014 Natl	Hypothetical with all NBA players staying
1	Memphis	na	2	(drops to 4th if Thomas stays but top 3 keep theirs too)
2	Marquette	25	4	drop to 19th
3	Providence	11	7	drop to 26th
4	Georgetown	24	9	(up to 8th if Porter stays)
5	Louisville	6	16	(up to 13th if Dieng and Blackshear stay)
6	Connecticut	38	18	(up to 17th if Napier stays)
7	Houston	na	28	drop to 36th
8	Villanova	69	37	drop to 43rd
9	Rutgers	53	45	drop to 53rd
10	South Florida	66	50	drop to 58th
11	Seton Hall	86	51	drop to 59th
12	DePaul	119	58	drop to 65th
13	St. John's	59	59	(up to 34th if Harrison stays)
14	Central Florida	na	86	drop to 98th
15	Cincinnati	90	96	drop to 105th
16	Temple	na	112	drop to 121st
17	Southern Methodist	na	115	drop to 124th
	Conference Average	47	47

The two big questions on this chart are whether or not Memphis has really collected enough talent to burst into the top 10 this year, and if Houston is really on course to move all the way into the top 30 by next year.  However, by the same token one has to wonder if Temple will really fall as far as projected after being able to tell recruits they are back in the Big East.

For this reason I will have one eye on the Big East standings and another on Memphis, Houston and the rest this year.  If the Big East once again emerges strong in basketball after realignment, as happened after the last ACC raid, then it's possible recruiting could stay right on course throughout the conference.

MU 2014 could drop from 2nd to 5th in BE if UConn, Lville & Gtown keep NBA players

In fairness, one item I do need to note is that the new Big East is only projected to produce five likely NBA draftees after this coming season.  A lot of these teams are in the same boat as Marquette, benefiting from strong classes moving forward to 2014 but without many players who will be so good they will leave.  The great news is that Marquette now projects to finish 2nd to Memphis in the Big East in 2014.  However, as you can see from the notes, if the NBA prospects for UConn, Louisville and Georgetown do not enter the 2013 draft after this season, then all three teams would be projected to pass Marquette to push us back to 5th in the conference in 2014.

Either way, the future is looking bright for Marquette and Big East basketball.

The following are the updates on the post below of all teams.

South Florida breaks into 2014 Top 50 with recruit

While the Harrison twins going to Kentucky was obviously the big recruiting news this week, the nice pick up in the Big East was by South Florida. Picking up Chris Perry moved the Bulls from a projected 61st in 2014 to 50th, so they are getting back in position for another potential surprise NCAA run. I am mainly focusing on Rnk2 - which is your current 2014 roster minus anyone expected to go to the draft plus the average recruits you would expect based on the guys you have a chance to get. The following are the five teams who made changes since the initial post below.

Team	2014 roster	Rnk1	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	likely recr	Rnk2	Add NBA if stay	If stay	Rnk3
Kentucky	28.3	30	7	2.5	2.4	2.4			34.73	24	Noel, Goodwin, Poythress, Harrow	71.6	1
North Carolina St.	32.74	15	2.5	0.9	0	0	0		36.14	20	Brown. Leslie	48.95	14
South Carolina	26.65	38	1.6						28.25	40		28.25	45
Illinois	24.35	45	1.6	0.4					26.35	47		26.35	56
South Florida	24	49	1	0.2	0.2	0.2			26	50		26	58