"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Part 2 - MU is 11th best bet for a run based on talent

This is the 2nd of two posts being placed back to back, and intended to be read after "Part 1 - MU is 5th best bet for a run based on who they've beaten"

Part 2 - Do you have the talent to win a championship?

The following ranks every team that has at least one player projected to be picked in NBA draft either this year or next. Based on this criteria, the top 11 teams would have the best chance to make the Final Four since they have three or more projected NBA draft picks. Ties are broken based on how high the teams best player is expected to go, so while eight teams have three projected draft picks, OSU ranks higher in raw talent because 7-foot center BJ Mullens is expected to be the No. 3 pick next year, while Marquette’s guard Jerel McNeal is expected to be the 42nd pick this year. Likewise, 10 teams with two stars may find that is one star too few, but there’s a much better chance that projected No. 1 pick Blake Griffin can lead Oklahoma (12th on this list) to the Final Four than No. 39 pick Marcus Thornton leading LSU (22nd) there.

1, UConn, 6 NBA Players, Hasheem Thabeet (C) picked as the No. 3 pick in 2009
2, North Carolina, 5 NBA Players, Ed Davis (PF) picked as the No. 11 pick in 2010
3, UCLA, 4 NBA Players, Jrue Holiday (PG/SG) picked as the No. 8 pick in 2010
4, Ohio State, 3 NBA Players, BJ Mullens (C) picked as the No. 3 pick in 2010
5, Wake Forest, 3 NBA Players, Al-Farouq Aminu (SF) picked as the No. 6 pick in 2009
6, Texas, 3 NBA Players, Damion James (SF) picked as the No. 12 pick in 2009
7, USC, 3 NBA Players, Demar DeRozan (SG) picked as the No. 15 pick in 2009
8, West Virginia, 3 NBA Players, Devin Ebanks (SF) picked as the No. 17 pick in 2010
9, Gonzaga, 3 NBA Players, Austin Daye (SF) picked as the No. 23 pick in 2009
10, Syracuse, 3 NBA Players, Jonny Flynn (PG) picked as the No. 23 pick in 2010
11, Marquette, 3 NBA Players, Jerel McNeal (SG) picked as the No. 42 pick in 2009
12, Oklahoma, 2 NBA Players, Blake Griffin (PF) picked as the No. 1 pick in 2009
13, Arizona St., 2 NBA Players, James Harden (SG) picked as the No. 2 pick in 2009
14, Arizona, 2 NBA Players, Jordan Hill (PF) picked as the No. 4 pick in 2009
15, Georgia Tech, 2 NBA Players, Derrick Favors (PF) picked as the No. 5 pick in 2010
16, Kansas, 2 NBA Players, Cole Aldrich (PF/C) picked as the No. 7 pick in 2010
17, Louisville, 2 NBA Players, Earl Clark (SF) picked as the No. 7 pick in 2009
18, Duke, 2 NBA Players, Gerald Henderson (SG) picked as the No. 9 pick in 2009
19, Georgetown, 2 NBA Players, Greg Monroe (PF) picked as the No. 10 pick in 2009
20, Kentucky, 2 NBA Players, Patrick Patterson (PF) picked as the No. 17 pick in 2009
21, Tennessee, 2 NBA Players, Tyler Smith (SF) picked as the No. 26 pick in 2009
22, LSU, 2 NBA Players, Marcus Thornton (SG) picked as the No. 39 pick in 2009
23, Fresno St., 1 NBA Player, Paul George (SG/SF) picked as the No. 10 pick in 2010
24, Mississippi St., 1 NBA Player, Jarvis Varnado (PF) picked as the No. 14 pick in 2010
25, Davidson, 1 NBA Player, Stephen Curry (PG/SG) picked as the No. 16 pick in 2009
26, Oklahoma State, 1 NBA Player, James Anderson (SG) picked as the No. 16 pick in 2010
27, VCU, 1 NBA Player, Eric Maynor (PG) picked as the No. 18 pick in 2009
28, Memphis, 1 NBA Player, Tyreke Evans (SG) picked as the No. 20 pick in 2010
29, St. Mary's, 1 NBA Player, Patrick Mills (PG) picked as the No. 21 pick in 2009
30, Iowa St., 1 NBA Player, Craig Brackins (PF) picked as the No. 22 pick in 2010
31, Pittsburgh, 1 NBA Player, DeJuan Blair (PF) picked as the No. 24 pick in 2009
32, Vanderbilt, 1 NBA Player, AJ Ogilvy (C) picked as the No. 25 pick in 2010
33, Nevada, 1 NBA Player, Luke Babbitt (SF) picked as the No. 26 pick in 2010
34, Xavier, 1 NBA Player, Derrick Brown (SF) picked as the No. 27 pick in 2010
35, Tulsa, 1 NBA Player, Jerome Jordan (C) picked as the No. 29 pick in 2009
36, Baylor, 1 NBA Player, Curtis Jerrells (PG) picked as the No. 32 pick in 2009
37, California, 1 NBA Player, Patrick Christop... (SG/SF) picked as the No. 32 pick in 2010
38, Miami, 1 NBA Player, Dwayne Collins (PF) picked as the No. 33 pick in 2010
39, Temple, 1 NBA Player, Dionte Christmas (SG) picked as the No. 33 pick in 2009
40, Michigan St., 1 NBA Player, Raymar Morgan (SF) picked as the No. 34 pick in 2010
41, NC State, 1 NBA Player, Brandon Costner (SF) picked as the No. 35 pick in 2009
42, Clemson, 1 NBA Player, Trevor Booker (PF) picked as the No. 36 pick in 2010
43, Boston College, 1 NBA Player, Tyrese Rice (PG) picked as the No. 37 pick in 2009
44, UAB, 1 NBA Player, Robert Vaden (SG) picked as the No. 38 pick in 2009
45, Alabama, 1 NBA Player, Alonzo Gee (SG) picked as the No. 40 pick in 2009
46, Central Florida, 1 NBA Player, Jermaine Taylor (SG) picked as the No. 43 pick in 2009
47, San Diego St., 1 NBA Player, Lorrenzo Wade (SG) picked as the No. 47 pick in 2009
48, Maryland, 1 NBA Player, Greivis Vasquez (PG/SG) picked as the No. 50 pick in 2009
49, Missouri, 1 NBA Player, Leo Lyons (PF) picked as the No. 51 pick in 2009
50, Texas A&M, 1 NBA Player, Chinemelu Elonu (PF) picked as the No. 52 pick in 2010
51, Arkansas, 1 NBA Player, Michael Washington (PF) picked as the No. 54 pick in 2010
52, Notre Dame, 1 NBA Player, Luke Harangody (SF/PF) picked as the No. 58 pick in 2010
53, Cal State Ful..., 1 NBA Player, Josh Akognon (PG) picked as the No. 59 pick in 2009
54, Utah, 1 NBA Player, Luke Nevill (C) picked as the No. 60 pick in 2009

Obviously there are other factors, but I believe these are two pretty good starting points for figuring out how good teams really are. A team that clearly can beat the top teams even if they play down to their competition at other times (Wake Forest), and a team that hasn’t shown their best but has NBA players all over the court (UCLA) can certainly make a run. Both of these approaches point to UConn and UNC as the most likely title showdown, but looking down both of these lists you can see just how wide open the tournament could be this year.


AquariumDrinker said...

good stuff and interesting read. nitpicking here: georgia tech at #15 won't due because derrick favors hasn't stepped on campus yet, as he is still in HS. not that they are a tournament team anyway.

JohnPudner said...

Not nitpicking at all - Michael DeCourcy at the Sporting News emailed me to note the same thing. Good catch.