"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, September 09, 2012

Some good Big East football results as networks evaluate what an overall Big East package is worth; table of all FBS teams' rankings and performances

BJ Daniels 56-yard pass to Andre Davis with 38 seconds left to give South Florida a 32-31 road win at Nevada (ranked 27th at www.masseyratings.com coming into the game) helps Marquette basketball.  Yes, the Big East brand and Big East football remain part of the equation that made Marquette's basketball program more profitable than a majority of FBS FOOTBALL programs, and as MU Warrior reported yesterday, the Big East name is not going to change.

That win coupled with Louisville's thrashing of Kentucky and Cincinnati's drubbing of ACC-bound Pitt give hope that all three teams can move up to team up with Boise State and give the Big East a strong nucleus for future football seasons that will attract a strong offer from ESPN, NBC Sports or others.

However, it is also important that some of the lower teams also improve their standing now that they will be affiliated with the East.   To that end, it was good that SMU, Memphis and San Diego State were three of the 15 teams to exceed the Massey spread on their game by more than 20 points.  SMU was favored by just 12 against a Stephen F. Austin team that had won 6 straight games in the FCS, but exceeded that spread by 40 points for the most impressive performance of the day.  San Diego State also rolled it up by 15 points more than expected, and Memphis almost pulled off a major upset as a 27-point underdog at Arkansas State.

This table shows the best 15 performances - obviously Louisiana-Monroe has the most impressive win on this list, and my estimate of how the team's Massey ranking could change as a result.

TeamConferencePrev RankNew RankOpponentMassey PrActualBeat Spread
SMUBig East8778SF Austin125240
Texas TechBig 123627Texas St124836
ArizonaPac 124336Oklahoma St-132134
ULMSun Belt10597Arkansas-30333
Kansas StBig 122112Miami FL73932
IndianaBig Ten9688Massachusetts103929
Arizona StPac 123531Illinois73124
MinnesotaBig Ten7773New Hampshire133724
MemphisBig East121115Arkansas St-27-522
Georgia TechACC5247Presbyterian355621
San Diego StBig East7167Army143521

After going through each game, it appears the "future Big East" could have six teams in the top half (60th place) of the FBS after yesterday's games, though Temple probably drops below that mark after a very disappointing performance against Maryland.  That stacks up as equal with the ACC and well as doubling the highest non-BCS conference (WAC, 3 teams).  Obviously ACC football is not helped by Pitt or Syracuse, neither of which is in the top 80.  Here are the number of Top 60 teams in each conference:

  • SEC - 13 (though Massey will have just 3 in the Top 10 after Arkansas loss)
  • Big 12 - 9 (all in the top 30 with the addition of #28 West Virginia)
  • Pac 12 - 9 (matches SEC and Big 12 with 3 in the top 10, but no other top 30)
  • Big Ten - 9 (Michigan State only top 15 after Wisconsin and Nebraska losses)
  • 2013 Big East - 6 (plus Notre Dame and includes Boise St at #11, but need Cincy, USF and Louisville to climb into top 30)
  • ACC 6 (unlike polls, no team in top 20 yet)
  • WAC 3 (none in top 40)
  • MAC 2 (none in top 40)
  • Mountain West 1 (USF's upset of then-No. 27 Nevada huge)
  • Independent 1 (Brigham Young just outside top 30, so very tempting for Big East press)

While a dream football scenario of both BYU and Notre Dame joining the Big East is virtually impossible, the conference can still be well-positioned if they hold onto the current line-up and can get someone to step up along with Boise State to keep an overall sports package with the conference very enticing.  Here is the list of all conferences and an estimate of where their teams will rank after this week's performance.  Don't get me wrong, as a basketball fan I would rather have beefed up basketball with Memphis and Temple then picked up two more football teams if I had the choice, but as long as we have them we want them and the rest to do well and increase the overall value of the next Big East TV package.

TeamConferencePrev RankNew RankOpponentMassey PrActualBeat Spread
Boise StateBig East1211Idle
Notre DameBig East1820Purdue173-14
CincinnatiBig East4238Pittsburgh132411
South FloridaBig East4645Nevada-718
LouisvilleBig East4848Missouri St25283
ConnecticutBig East5859NC State3-3-6
RutgersBig East5660Howard4126-15
TempleBig East5763Maryland16-9-25
San Diego StBig East7167Army143521
SMUBig East8778SF Austin125240
UCFBig East8081Ohio St-18-153
NavyBig East8383Idle
HoustonBig East9090Louisiana Tech-7-70
MemphisBig East121115Arkansas St-27-522
Florida StACC2321Savannah St51554
ClemsonACC2525Ball St18257
Virginia TechACC3235Austin Peay4335-8
Miami FLACC3340Kansas St-7-39-32
Georgia TechACC5247Presbyterian355621
North CarolinaACC4952Wake Forest5-1-6
NC StateACC6564Connecticut-336
VirginiaACC7072Penn St110
Boston CollegeACC7574Maine173114
Wake ForestACC7675North Carolina-516
OklahomaBig 1243Florida A&M47569
BaylorBig 12119Idle
Oklahoma StBig 12310Arizona13-21-34
Kansas StBig 122112Miami FL73932
TexasBig 121714New Mexico344511
TCUBig 121918Grambling52564
Texas TechBig 123627Texas St124836
West VirginiaBig 122828Idle
Iowa StBig 123029Iowa-336
KansasBig 126470Rice20-1-21
Michigan StBig Ten64C Michigan28346
WisconsinBig Ten1317Oregon St10-3-13
NebraskaBig Ten1519UCLA7-6-13
MichiganBig Ten2024Air Force186-12
Ohio StBig Ten2932UCF1815-3
IowaBig Ten3737Iowa St3-3-6
IllinoisBig Ten4451Arizona St-7-31-24
NorthwesternBig Ten5553Vanderbilt-31013
PurdueBig Ten6156Notre Dame-17-314
Penn StBig Ten6869Virginia-1-10
MinnesotaBig Ten7773New Hampshire133724
IndianaBig Ten9688Massachusetts103929
BYUIndependent3134Weber St31321
OregonPac 1256Fresno St2417-7
StanfordPac 12147Duke213716
USCPac 1298Syracuse2113-8
Arizona StPac 123531Illinois73124
ArizonaPac 124336Oklahoma St-132134
WashingtonPac 123839LSU-27-38-11
UtahPac 124546Utah St.-3-7-4
UCLAPac 125149Nebraska-7613
CaliforniaPac 125355Southern Utah2319-4
Oregon StPac 126765Wisconsin-10313
Washington StPac 128887E Washington54-1
ColoradoPac 1298103CS Sacramento18-2-20
AlabamaSEC11W Kentucky4535-10
South CarolinaSEC85East Carolina283810
Texas A&MSEC1013Florida10-3-13
FloridaSEC2623Texas A&M-10313
TennesseeSEC2426Georgia St4538-7
Mississippi StSEC3433Auburn31815
AuburnSEC3942Mississippi St-3-18-15
Southern MissCUSA6262Idle
East CarolinaCUSA9396South Carolina-28-38-10
MarshallCUSA104104W Carolina27281
ArmyIndependent102105San Diego St-14-35-21
OhioMAC4743New Mexico St102717
N IllinoisMAC5957TN Martin28280
W MichiganMAC9289E Illinois193112
Ball StMAC8991Clemson-18-25-7
Bowling GreenMAC9493Idaho108-2
Miami OHMAC99100S Illinois1716-1
BuffaloMAC107107Morgan St3122-9
E MichiganMAC109112Illinois St-1-17-16
C MichiganMAC112113Michigan St-28-34-6
AkronMAC123119Florida Intl-21-318
NevadaMountain West2730South Florida7-1-8
Fresno StMountain West6361Oregon-24-177
Air ForceMountain West6968Michigan-18-612
WyomingMountain West7879Toledo-1-3-2
HawaiiMountain West7980Idle
Colorado StMountain West9598N Dakota St-7-15-8
UNLVMountain West113114Northern Arizona7-3-10
New MexicoMountain West114116Texas-34-45-11
Arkansas StSun Belt7482Memphis275-22
ULLSun Belt9794Troy31310
ULMSun Belt10597Arkansas-30333
W KentuckySun Belt103101Alabama-45-3510
North TexasSun Belt106106TX Southern3527-8
Florida IntlSun Belt108110Akron213-18
TroySun Belt110111ULL-3-13-10
Middle Tenn StSun Belt119117FL Atlantic7147
FL AtlanticSun Belt122121Middle Tenn St-7-14-7
South AlabamaSun Belt124123Nicholls St76-1
Louisiana TechWestern Athletic4141Houston770
Utah St.Western Athletic5050Utah374
San Jose StWestern Athletic5454UC Davis25327
New Mexico StWestern Athletic8486Ohio-10-27-17
Texas StWestern Athletic8695Texas Tech-12-48-36
IdahoWestern Athletic111109Bowling Green-10-82
UT San AntonioWestern Athletic120124TX A&M Commerce3611-25

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