"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Ray Floriani recaps the MU win over St Johns

Ray Floriani, the noted high school and college basketball reporter from New Jersey, covered last night's Marquette win in the Garden for Cracked Sidewalks. Earlier this morning, Ray filed this report:

**************************************
The press room coffee is exceptionally strong. Kind of like Starbucks. Stronger the better but I’m not sure what kind of omen that gives on tonight’s contest.

20:00 -15:46 – On the game’s first possession Anthony Mason Jr.’s first shot is rejected by Jerel McNeal who goes coast to coast for a layup. Undaunted, Mason Jr. makes a few nice penetrations. Both clubs start in man to man.

9-6 Marquette

15:46-11:31 – A fan hollers ‘put (Larry) Wright in the game’. Justin Burrell of St.John’s shouts back to the stands, ‘he’s f___ing hurt.” Not a good sign concentration wise when you get distracted by fan comments. Dominic James finishes a pretty layup and avoids contact in the process.

13-6 Marquette

11:31-6:32 – Despite a lead, Marquette appears flat. They are beaten on a rebound off a St.John’s missed free throw. On another occasion a missed three by the Red Storm is dropped out of bounds by a Marquette rebounder who was all alone. St.John’s is zoning on defense. Red Storm went about 7 minutes without a field goal but is still hanging around.

20-14 Marquette

6:32-3:55- Dan Fitzgerald and McNeal bury threes, time out St.John’s. James finishes another penetration layup. The lead is double digits and the boos are audible.

30-16 Marquette

3:55-0:00- Ousmane Barro scores on a beautiful pick and roll after the media timeout. Marquette is still ahead by a dozen with 90 seconds left. They are in command but objectively you can’t say this is a vintage performance.

Half 36-24 Marquette

Attendance is listed just over 6,000. Factored in are ticket purchasers who are ‘no shows’ because it looks like roughly 4,000 and change. A fair amount of Marquette fans are on hand.

Possessions : MU 34 St.John’s 37

Offensive Eff. MU 106 St.John’s 65

Second Half:

20:00-15:33 – On the first possession McNeal scores on a penetration. St.John’s comes down and turns the ball over. Mason jr. continues to fire away. McNeill has all 4 Marquette field goals the first four minutes, two penetrations and a trey.

45-27 Marquette

15:33-11:36Marquette defense looks better. They are forcing turnovers , igniting the break and are working on all cylinders. Trevor Mbakwe looks good posting up and attacking the glass.

53-31 Marquette

11:36-7:54- Dele Coker of St.John’s misses from close inside. The next possession the freshman center scores from about the same area. ‘Progress’ says a press row neighbor.

59-44 Marquette

7:54-3:38- Paris Horne of St.John’s buries a three and cuts the deficit to 12. A shot clock violation by Marquette stirs the St.John’s faithful. Red Storm make a run , not coincidentally, with Mason and Burrell on the bench. Missed shots close in and unconverted free throws are still killing St.John’s. During the run, Marquette continues to show patience in half court offensive execution.

65-50 Marquette

3:38-0:00- Marquette is not in a full delay but they are eating more clock on each possession. St.John’s is within 10 with 1:41 remaining. Still, they mount no serious threat those final hundred seconds.

Final : Marquette 73 St.John’s 64

Poss : Marquette 69 St.John’s 73

Off. Eff. Marquette 106 St.John’s 88

McNeal led the way with 20 points while James added 19. Mason jr. paced St.John’s with 20.

Notes from the post-game press conferences

  • En route to the interviews I meet a writer from Marquette.com and some fans seated behind the Marquette bench. I then discuss my officiating and having worked several St.Anthony’s games with MU signee Tyshawn Taylor. Group was really interested and loved hearing some St.Anthony’s and Bob Hurley anecdotes. Also reminded them that St.Anthony’s is on ESPN tonight.
  • Saw legendary Lou Carnesecca en route to interviews. The former St. John’s coach is very gracious and always cordial. Deep down, the situation with the St.John’s program must be devastating him.
  • St.John’s coach Norm Roberts was generally pleased with his club’s effort. Roberts noted that St.John’s defended well for most of a possession then Marquette would make a play. “They are a veteran team,” Roberts said of Marquette. ‘They have juniors with experience. We have freshman who we are asking to play like juniors.” Roberts notes that St.John’s was 23 of 40 from the line. Those 17 missed free throws were obviously huge. “We’re teaching our kids how to win,” Roberts said. “Marquette knows how to win but our kids WILL learn.”
  • Tom Crean credited St.John’s toughness and refusal to quit. He credited Roberts and feels with a young group they will see better days. The Marquette mentor was happy with James and the play of David Cubillan off the bench. He didn’t like “zero offensive boards from the four and five positions.”
  • Crean went on to praise McNeal whom he calls one of the best defenders in the Big East. “No one spends more time at the Al McGuire Center working on his game,” Crean said. “That’s a credit to his (McNeal) work ethic and our assistant coaches.
  • Basically it all came down to a reminder. “Every night you have to polay the full forty minutes in this conference,” Crean said. “(Team) Records mean absolutely nothing in this league.”
  • On the way out I met assistant coach Tim Buckley. Spoke with Buckley a few minutes and found him very knowledgeable and personable. A class act.
  • Exiting MSG the thought occurs that Marquette will be back in only three weeks for the Big East Tournament. Still, there is some important basketball to be played.
Ray, thanks very much!

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Golden Eagles throttle St. Johns

UPDATED
Marquette extended its Big East win streak to three games with a convincing 73-64 win over the hapless St. John's Red Storm in Madison Square Garden tonight. With the win MU improves to 19-6 on the season and 9-5 in the Big East.

Jerel McNeal led the charge with 20 points and keyed a defense that forced 23 Red Storm turnovers including 16 in the first half. Dominic James added 19 points and turned in a terrific floor game as well (including 9-9 from the charity stripe). Trevor Mbakwe also turned in a noteworthy performance, grabbing seven rebounds and scoring five points while demonstrating an impressive nose for the ball on the offensive glass.

MU led by as many as 23 points in the second half before the Johnnies launched a spirited 14-2 run to cut the lead to 61-50 with 6:31 remaining. From that point the game was an ugly grinder though MU settled down enough to earn its third Big East conference road win of the year.

Next up for Marquette is a home game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday afternoon.

AP Recap / Box / Play by Play

Media Recaps

MU/SJU Preview @ MSG



#24 Marquette takes on St. John's Redmen at Madison Square Guarden on Wednesday night, 6pm on ESPN2. Marquette will try to extend its 2 game winning streak against the Johnnies, who are 4-9 in Big East Play.

SJU is one game out of the 12th spot in the Big East Tournament and has lost 7 of their last 10. SJU has played RPI Top 50 teams eight times and have lost each and every time.

SJU's Anthony Mason, Jr. returns for his 2nd game after a long stretch on IR with an ankle issue.

I'm not going to mince words: Marquette should win this game handily. MU has an edge on everything. Points/game, FG%, FT%, Defense, Rebounding, Turnovers and Bench quality. But it is a road game, which has given MU the willies.

On top of that, SJU will probably be "looking past" #24 Marquette and gearing up to play @ #5 Duke on Saturday, 2/23. Now that's a gutsy OOC schedule. Can you imagine, 18 Big East games, with Duke in the middle?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about St. John's. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.
  • 91% - Pomeroy predicts a 91% chance of Marquette victory
    • Remember that these predictions are more accurate (for some reason) on home games
    • We were also 60-70% favorites to defeat Louisville and UConn
  • 51 - SJU's rank for Defensive Efficiency
    • This is the highest ranking for St. John's at any of the Pomeroy metrics
    • However, before getting too cocky, St. John's is also improving at their defense over the last few games
  • 228 - St. John's rank for pace
    • SJU is another one of those teams that plays at an extremely slow pace, averaging 65.7 possessions / game
    • The Johnnies haven't been above 63 possessions in a game in their last six games
    • Slowing the pace down has helped St. John's go 3-3
  • 22.3% - The turnover rate that SJU averages on offense
    • 20% is considered average, so this turnover rate is fairly poor at a ranking of 231 out of 341 Division 1 schools
    • In the games that SJU wins, they keep their TO Rate under 20%
    • Marquette is forcing opponents into a TO Rate of 23%, and almost every opponent we face ends up with more turnovers than their average
  • 21.9% - The turnover rate that SJU averages on defense
    • In other words, SJU also forces their opponents into a lot of turnovers
    • Unfortunately for the Johnnies, Marquette is #28 in the country at protecting the ball
    • We haven't had a worse than average (20%) game at protecting the ball since January 8th... that's ten games!
Thanks to a slow pace and an improving defense, St. John's has managed to go 3-3 in their last six games. However, two of the most statistically significant factors for SJU are their ability to protect the ball and force turnovers. In each of these areas, Marquette has a definite advantage. Expect to see our team disrupt the Johnnies' offense and push a faster pace that SJU would like.

Links:
And since we're on Mbakwe .. here's a little interview for you:

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Things to Consider Down the Stretch

Want a reason to believe that this Marquette team could be different than the last two years? According to Pomeroy, Marquette has the #15 offense and the #11 defense in the country. This is in spite of our team troubles in the early part of conference play. Here's a quick view at the 2007 and 2006 Pomeroy statistics.


Interestingly enough, our performance in the past two NCAA tournament games has been an exaggerated microcosm of the team's rankings. The 2006 MU defense was the weak point, and that team was torched by Alabama. The 2007 weak area was the offense, and... well, let's just not discuss the woeful ineptitude of the MSU game. Frankly, looking at the Pomeroy Rankings, it's not really a surprise that Marquette ended up seeded where they were in the tournament.

This team is better than the last two years on both ends of the court, and they are playing better overall as well. It's okay to believe that this team is good.

On the other hand...

Marquette is also only 3-6 against Top 50 RPI teams this year. As Hilltopper says, despite all the stats it really only matters how well you do on the court against the top teams. Regardless of home/away, good teams need to beat other good teams. There are at least two more potential games for Marquette against Top 50 teams (Georgetown and Syracuse), so perhaps MU will get that record closer to 0.500. However, it's far more likely that we split, which would leave Marquette with a record of 4-7 against Top 50 RPI teams going into the Big EAST Tournament. A few wins in the tournament may also help MU beef up this portion of the record but we'll mostly likely end up sub-0.500 for the season.

Performing well in the NCAAs is about defeating the top teams, and so far this year, Marquette has not done well. It's also okay to be nervous about how well Marquette will do in the NCAA tournament. If 2008 ends up as also an exaggerated microcosm in the tournament, then one need only think of how poorly we looked against Louisville...

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Links

Rosiak's blog has had several nice entries the last few days. Lots of good links from Rosiak. The most recent entry includes coverage of how Jay Bilas lists Jerel McNeal as one of his six defensive candidates, as well as bracketology updates. Frankly, Cracked Sidewalks just doesn't see the same McNeal defensive brilliance. His Defensive Rebounding Percentage, his Block Rate, his Steal Rate, and his overall Defensive Rating are worse than last year.

The Journal-Sentinel has their Weekly Marquette Report (sorry, but I'm not calling it Golden Eagles). They look at who is Hot (Barro) and who is Not (Burke).

updated: Information regarding Top 50 teams based on brewcity's blog comments

Sunday, February 17, 2008

In case you weren't at the BC: FF 5 year ceremony

This video was shot at the MU / Pitt game half-time ceremony.

8 minutes total .. first 2 minutes is the montage video .. at the 2 minute mark is the player intros .. 4 minute mark is Tom Crean .. 6 minute mark is DWade .. 7 minute is Travis' speech.

The beginning video grab is a bit shaky, as people were bumping me around. Sorry.

Pittsburgh Numbers Recap

In our Preview, some of the key areas to watch for were Pitt's Offensive Efficiency and their Offensive Rebounding Percentage.

Looking at the Four Factors, we can see how good of a performance it was by Marquette.


Marquette won every single area of the Four Factors. Pittsburgh was the #8 team in the country at offensive rebounding percentage, and we managed to win the battle of Offensive Rebounding and to hold them well below their average. Don't look now, but Marquette has triumphed in this area in four of the last five contests. In addition, Pitt was the #14 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency with a rating of 115.7. For Marquette to hold them to an efficiency of 83.5 shows how well MU did at defense.


The Offensive and Defensive Ratings for our team continue to move in the right directions. As one can see, there was a terrible trend for both areas, which reached a nadir at the UConn game. The team plateaued until the Cincinnati game, and now things are moving properly. Right now, the team is getting better at the end of the season, which is a refreshing change. In addition, despite all of our troubles, we are still rated as the #15 Offense and the #12 Defense in the country by Pomeroy. That's pretty darn good, folks.

Final Season Projections

  • Pomeroy still projects a final conference record of 12-6, meaning one loss in our last five conference games.
  • Our conference statistics project a final record of 11.8 - 6.2, meaning one to two (but closer to one) losses in our final games
  • Based on how we've been playing the last five games, we project to a final record of 13-5, meaning we run the table.
Last time we did the projections, the view was for the team to lose anywhere from 0-3 games. Based on how the team continues to improve, our current forecast is consistently only 0-1 more losses.

Individual Player Ratings



Fresh off of a week in which Cracked Sidewalks said that Jerel McNeal was not a winning player during conference play, McNeal ended up as the statistical stud of the game. Barro, of course, was second on the list, with other noteworthy contributions by Cubillan, Matthews, and James. Interestingly enough, Lazar Hayward ended up with a negative net contribution, as Sam Young seemed to win the head-to-head battle and the perceived lead for "Most Improved Conference Player". Finally, although I was reasonably sure that Mbakwe ended up with 38 points, 19 rebounds, and 8 blocked shots in his eight minutes of play, the box score didn't seem to reflect that information. Poor Trevor starts off his college career with a negative net game. May this be his last!

All the numbers are starting to point in the right direction. Let's hope that the momentum continues and we win big against St. Johns on Wednesday.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Now that's more like it: MU Thumps #22 Pitt

UPDATED:

Starting from the last 3 minutes of the Notre Dame game, through Seton Hall, and into an electric Bradley Center on Saturday Night versus #22 Pittsburgh, Marquette has played 83 minutes of inspired basketball with a 72-54 beat down of Pitt. Marquette now moves to 8-5 in BE play, in 5th place.

Jerel McNeal led the team with 17 quiet points, followed by a superlative effort by The Oooze, who racked up another double double, 14 points, 12 boards.

But they weren't the only stars last night, in that, MU got solid contributions from just about everyone. While James only had 4 points, he had a whopping 12 assists. Matthews accounted for another 10 points. And the Cube is back, with 13 points, hitting 3-5 from behind the arc.

The only minor disappointment last night was Trevor Mbakwe, who played his first minutes as a Warrior. With the expectation that Trevor farts thunder and craps lightening, his grand un-redshirting was uneventful at best, missing one shot, and getting zero boards in 8 minutes. If the game was tighter, I don't believe Crean would have played him for more than 1-2 minutes.

A note should be made about the crowd .. it was fantastic. Raucous. Students filled their section to the brim. That crowd went to 11. Some of it was for Pittsburgh, some for the Converse commercial, some for the Final 4 ceremony, and some for the Mbakwe unveiling. It will be interesting to see the Converse commercial, once complete. I thought the Bradley Center could have done a better job informing the non-students (who make up 75% of the crowd) what was going on, and to join in with the We Are--Marquette chant. I'll have video up later today.

Huge win. Next up, @SJU and home vs. Rutgers. Can you smell a 4 game winning streak?

One more item: Could Pitt fans be bigger a-holes? Quote: "Please let James have a broken wrist" and .. "I hope James has to have his hand amputated." Wow. Classy fan base.


I need to put up a picture of a guy who sits a row behind me. Clearly, he reads Cracked Sidewalks.

I give you, the Cracked Sidewalks Fan of the Game:

Trevor Mbakwe cleared to play

OK, I guess it's rip the redshirt off of this talented kid and play for keeps the rest of the way......

For Immediate Release

Freshman Trevor Mbakwe Cleared To Play

Forward Could Make Golden Eagle Debut Friday Night Against Pittsburgh

Milwaukee – Freshman forward Trevor Mbakwe has received medical clearance for game competition and is available for this evening’s contest with Pittsburgh. Mbakwe had been sidelined since November following surgery to repair an isolated fibular collateral ligament sprain to his left knee.

“Trevor has made excellent progress in rehabilitation of his knee injury and he has passed all of the necessary orthopedic and functional tests,” said team physician Dr. Ted Gertel.

He received clearance to resume basketball activities several weeks ago by the team’s medical staff.

“It got to the point that my rehab workouts were harder than actually practicing and playing. I’m glad I was finally allowed to test the knee and to be cleared. Waiting has been really hard but I knew all along that at some point I was going to be able to come back and help our team this season,” said Mbakwe.

Mbakwe (M-bahk-we), a native of St. Paul, Minn., averaged 21.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 4.5 blocks during his senior season at St. Bernard’s High School in 2007.

“Trevor made it clear to us early in the rehabilitation process his desire to return this season and we told him that the possibility to return would be a decision made by our medical staff,” said head coach Tom Crean. “He worked extremely hard throughout his rehabilitation and our team is excited to have him back.”

Marquette hosts Pittsburgh

UPDATED
Fresh off an impressive road win over Seton Hall, Marquette (17-6, 7-5) returns home on Friday to host the gritty Pittsburgh Panthers (19-5, 7-4). Tipoff is scheduled for 8pm on ESPN.

Jamie Dixon, who should be the mid-season favorite for Big East coach of the year, has his Panthers riding high despite losing two key starters early in the season. Absent the talented duo of Levance Fields and Mike Cook, Dixon's crew has won three of their last four outings, including an 82-62 thrashing of Providence on Tuesday night.

Dixon will get half of that injured duo back on Friday - -point guard Levance "Don't Tase Me Bro" Fields will play against MU. That'll be an enormous boost to the Panthers who have resorted to playing senior sharpshooter Ronald Ramon at the point, which marginalized his effectiveness as one of the nation's top three-point threats. Fields has been out since breaking his foot on December 29 against Dayton. Fields missed more time for the foot injury than he did for punching an off-duty police officer, allegedly grabbing for the officer's weapon, and ultimately being tased in an incident outside a strip club last September.

In the absence of Cook, Sam Young is turning in an All-Big East caliber season. The 6'7" forward has blossomed in his junior campaign, pouring in 18 points and grabbing seven boards per outing. Young's offensive game is diverse as he is nailing 40% of this attempts from deep, yet leads the Panthers in free throws attempted. Lazar Hayward figures to draw the tough assignment to slow down Young.

As good as Young has been, MU's toughest matchup figures to be DeJuan Blair, the manchild on the frontline for the Panthers. Blair averages a double double in conference play, and the numbers below show how outstanding his performance this year has been. Led by Blair and Young, the Panthers are one of the best rebounding teams in the league.

With Fields back in the mix, MU will need to hit the floor with the same toughness and energy we saw in Newark earlier in the week. Marquette summoned up the moxie and energy that was missing for much of the Big East season as they silenced the chippy Pirates. The Golden Eagles dominated the Pirates on the glass, held them to just 38% shooting, and had an impressive 13 assists on just 30 made field goals.

Crean's squad played .500 ball during its recent four-game stretch which included three games on the road. Record aside, Marquette showed flashes of becoming the team which dominated Wisconsin and nearly topped Duke in both the Notre Dame loss and the Seton Hall win. In fact, some fans have made it back to Jonestown. If the Golden Eagles expect to make a charge for one of the four first-round byes in the Big East Tournament, a win over the Panthers -- who lead MU by 1/2 a game - - is a must.

MU will honor the 2003 Final Four team at Friday's game, with many former players and coaches expected to be in attendance. In addition, Converse will be filming a TV commercial at the 12-minute mark of the first half. Both activities, combined with a Friday night game, are sure to have the crowd in a raucous mood. Could there be a Dwyane Wade appearance to further pump up the rowdiness?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Pittsburgh. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

  • 76% - Pomeroy predicts a 76% chance of victory for Marquette
  • 14 - Pitt is the #14 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency
    • Think Pitt is winning games with their defense? Their defense is #44 in the country, which is decent but not as strong as their offense.
    • However, three of Pitt's last six opponents have been held to low Efficiencies
    • Marquette is the #16 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency and the #17 team in the country at Defensive Efficiency. Will we be able to shut Pitt down?
  • 8 - Pitt is the #8 team in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
    • The Panthers secure 41.1% of all potential Offensive Rebounds to help bolster that offensive efficiency
  • 265 - Pitt's national rank at Pace
    • Pitt averages one of the slowest paces in the country for games at just under 65 possessions / game
  • 45 - The jersey number of DeJuan Blair
    • Blair is the fifth best Offensive Rebounder in the country. He grabs over 17% of all potential ORs.
    • Blair is also #35 in the country at grabbing steals during games, at a steal on 4.6% of all possessions
    • For comparison, McNeal is only at #50 in the country
In summary, Pitt's defense is decent. However, the Panthers are really winning a lot of games based on a slowed down pace and high offensive efficiency. A great deal of this offensive efficiency is due to Pitt's ability to crash the offensive boards, especially by DeJuan Blair. Let's watch for Marquette to come out fired up on the boards, push the pace, and fulfill the prediction of a Marquette victory.

As for Levance, well.....



Media Updates
This post created jointly by NYWarrior and Henry Sugar

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Looking at the Top Four

DISCLAIMER: WARNING - STATS POST
(The following post digs further into some Basketball Stats. You've been warned)

Rather than doing a numbers recap of the Seton Hall game, we're going to take an indepth look at the performance of Marquette's top four players during the Big EAST. These Top Four are obviously James, McNeal, Matthews, and Hayward.

Big EAST Stats

If you read the Numbers Recaps, a lot of this is what we cover on a game by game basis for individuals. The only new information is Win %, which is a view of whether or not a player is a winning player based on their Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Just like in all win percentages, 0.500 is average, meaning that the Offensive and Defensive Ratings are the same.

  • During Conference play, Marquette as a Team is averaging an Offensive Efficiency of 105.2 and a Defensive Efficiency of 101.5. This is nowhere near as good as our full-season averages on Pomeroy's site, which should be no surprise. The net points for our team is 48 during conference play, which means that for the entire Big East season, we've scored 48 more points (882) than our opponents have scored (834). Our team's Expected Win% is 0.601 based on our offensive and defensive efficiencies. Considering that we're barely above 0.500 in conference now (7-5), this makes sense.
  • Dominic James has a usage of 16.6%. This means that 16% of the time, he consumes a possession either through a Free Throw Attempt, a Field Goal Attempt, or a Turnover. James' Offensive Rating (ORtg) is largely aligned with the team's, and his defensive rating is a little worse than the team's average. Both ORtg and DRtg come from Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper. Pomeroy (link above) also tracks per-player Offensive Ratings. During the Big East, James has contributed about 10 net points. This means that of all the points he has contributed, the net impact has been plus ten. Remember that the entire team has only 48 net points. James' winning percentage is a little bit above 0.500 (more on this later)
  • Jerel McNeal has the highest usage on the team during conference play. He is consuming almost 20% of all team possessions. However, his ORtg is well below the team average. Even though his DRtg is better than team average, it's not low enough to account for the misfires on offense. High usage + Low ORtg is bad. McNeal, in spite of this, has 3 net points for conference play. However, looking at his Win% 0f 0.250, McNeal has not been a winning player during conference play. He's hurting the team with his low Offensive Rating and high usage.
  • Wesley Matthews is getting it done on the Offensive end. His ORtg has been much higher than team averages during conference play. This gives Wesley 13.8 net points, meaning that he is providing about 30% of our net points. Matthews also has an individual Win % of 0.794, which is better than the team Expected Win%.
  • However, Lazar Hayward has the best Win% of the four at 0.812. His ORtg and DRtg are better than the team averages, and he's chipped in 33.6 net points. Hayward really deserves consideration for most improved in the Big East. He is easily our most valuable statistical contributor. It's going to be fun watching him for the next few years.
In summary, the individual contributions reflect that reality for the entire team. After all, the team is 7-5 in conference, so it's to be expected that individual results aren't that great. Hayward and Matthews have been the consistent team leaders during conference play. However, James is marginal in his conference contributions, and McNeal is not a winning player!

Is there anything in their cumulative point trends that helps provide more insight?

Cumulative point graphs show how a player is trending. Upward slopes are trends of consistent positive contributions to games, and downward trends are consistent negative impacts on games. In the cumulative points graph, we can see exactly how valuable Hayward has been. His contribution slope is just steady and upwards. Essentially, his only negative net games were against Louisville and Louisville. Matthews has been steady and on a gradual rise, albiet unspectacular.

One can look at the above graph for James with the image of Nutter's first flagrant foul in your mind. This cumulative points graph shows that James has had a downward slope since the first Seton Hall game (minus the ND uptick). Now that Dominic appears to be healthy again, his contributions are on the rise. Before he was injured, James was easily the most valuable statistical contributor on the team. Since James now appears healthy, we can look for his and the team's improvement.

McNeal is the real puzzler. What has happened with last year's Team MVP? In 06-07, McNeal accounted for 161 net points, but he's currently only around 60, and almost all of those contributions were in non-conference. In addition, it's the inconsistency from McNeal that is jarring, with a graph that bounces up and down. For Marquette to have the success everyone wants, we need the McNeal that was around last year or for him to take less shots. I guess, if we're looking for hope, one can see a general trend for McNeal of better contributions starting around the DePaul game.

Conclusion
The Big Four account for the majority of our team's possessions as well as our success. Hayward has been a stud all season and has really proven to be invaluable. After a slow non-conference start, Matthews has had a net-positive overall contribution. While James had a slump, which we attribute mostly to his injury, he appears to have started to rebound. However, last year's team MVP needs to get back on track or defer to others more if Marquette desires to do well for the rest of the season.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Seton Hall Numbers Recap - Game 2

We're going to split the numbers recaps into Team Stats and Individual Stats over the next few days. There is just too much good information to share regarding the team today. As recapped here on Cracked Sidewalks, Marquette managed another blowout win in a game that 68%* of Marquette fans regarded as "Super Must Win". How did things end up for this game, and does it mean that the team is finally starting to play better?

Four Factors Review

First things first. It may look like there are really FIVE factors, so we wanted to set the record straight. The Four Factors are effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), Turnover Rate (TO Rate), Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%), and Free Throw Rate (FT Rate). Efficiency, which may seem like a fifth factor, is a measurement of the game's results. Whichever team wins the Efficiency battle wins the game 100% of the time.

Unlike the last game, where Marquette had a then-season worst in Efficiency, the good guys did an outstanding job on offense. Marquette fared better in three of the four factors on the way to the victory, including a decisive advantage on Offensive Rebounding and Turnover Rate. Remember that Seton Hall was the #5 team in the country at protecting the ball, and we forced them into a below average (average is 20%) showing.

Has the team started to turn the corner?

If one looks at the key trends for the team, one can see the beginnings of good things with the team. To start with, our Offensive and Defensive Ratings (same as efficiency above), is now trending in the right directions on both fronts. After a long stretch where our Defensive Rating was lower than our Offensive Rating, we are now in the net positive direction.


Our effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) has also started to improve. This trend is a little bit more tenuous, but at least we are heading in the right direction. Furthermore, if you notice, the reason we are doing better on eFG% is primarily because the defense is getting better.

Finally, things are starting to improve with Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%). One of the primary reasons we defeated UW@Madison was because the team achieved 50% Offensive Rebounding Percentage. This was an early season strength for Marquette, but it started to suffer greatly during conference play. Now, the team is finally in a situation where our OR% is improving and the OR% of our opponents is decreasing.


Is this just more Inconsistency from High Risk Strategies?

In a previous entry, we looked at the inconsistency associated with Marquette. Was last night's game just another indication of this same inconsistency? Looking at a moving average of our Pt. Spread Standard Deviation, one can see that we have improved as a team and we are now around the NCAA average. Therefore, not only is the team playing better and returning to some early season strengths, but the team is playing more consistently too. Signs of hope, everybody.


Projections

Given all of this good news, how do things look for the rest of the season?

  • Pomeroy predicts a final record of 23-7 (12-6) conference. That means losing only once in our last seven games.
  • Based on our conference stats of 105.2 ORtg and 101.5 DRtg, we predict to a conference record of 10.8 - 7.2. That means losing 2-3 times in our last seven games.
  • Based on how we've been playing the last five games (ORtg 108.4 ; DRtg 98.7), we predict to a conference record of 13.4 - 4.6. That's impossible, considering we already have lost five games, but it is an indication that the team has been playing better the last five games.
It's time to start gearing up for what should be a wild Friday night against Pittsburgh. The team seems to actually be playing much better and finally returning to what was working in the non-conference part of the schedule.

*Poll may not be representative of entire Marquette fan base, but the game /was/ a Super Must Win.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Dozens Watch as MU Crushes Pirates

Marquette jumped out to a 30-10 lead in front of an empty Prudential Center, and cruised to an easy 89-64 win.

Lazar Hayward notched another double-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds. Matthews and McNeal chipped in 14 each.

Marquette crushed the Pirates on the boards, with a whopping 43 to 22 advantage.

The Pirates didn't put up much of a fight, except to fight. The coach got Tee'd up early, Nutter, their Sr. captain gave a blatant elbow to James' jaw and was ejected, and Mike Davis decided to say some choice words to Ooze, evoking a double technical. (You can get a technical for Sengalese cuss words?)

Marquette heads back home to play Pittsburgh on Friday at the Bradley Center.

Video clips from TallTitan:


AP Wrap / Box / Play by Play
Rosiak: Nutter Ejection

Seton Hall Preview

Tonight shapes up to be a pivotal game for Marquette. Now firmly into the highly-scrutinized "last ten games" of the regular season, MU has started off 0-2. Standing at 6-5 in conference, a loss tonight would squarely place the post-season in jeopardy. It's been since 1979-1980 that the team made the NCAA tournament three years in a row, and everyone wants to see that long streak end.

In our numbers recap from the last game against Seton Hall, we showed exactly how ugly that game was. Seton Hall fared better in Turnover Rate, Offensive Rebounding, and Free Throw Rate. With all that, as well as holding Marquette to a then-season low in Offensive Efficiency, it's fortunate that our team was able to win. Considering that everyone expected a track meet last game, let's see how the pace ends up tonight.

Here are the Top Five Numbers for Seton Hall, with information from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

  • 76% - Pomeroy predicts a 76% chance of winning
  • 5 - Seton Hall is ranked #5 in the country at protecting the ball. They turn the ball over on only 15.8% of all possessions.
  • 11 - Seton Hall is ranked #11 in the country at Steal Percentage. They get a steal on 13.7% of all defensive possessions
  • 31 - That's the jersey number of 6'9", 265 lb F John Garcia. Garcia is #10 in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (16.1%)
  • 20 - Despite all of the recent struggles, Marquette is still considered a top 20 team by Pomeroy at both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. We are #18 and #19 in the country, respectively.

Links
  • Rosiak has a nice story on Lazar, including some discussion of Hayward being eligible for League's Most Improved Player.
  • Rosiak's blog was busy the last few days, with updates from the polls and a quick look at Seton Hall (scroll down)
  • GoMarquette.com preview, including a link to the game notes
  • NJ Star Ledger looks at Seton Hall, with a focus on the Big East Tourney
  • PirateCrew.com has a preview of tonight's game

Monday, February 11, 2008

Big East Cast and Tyshawn Taylor

Check'em out:

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Notre Dame Numbers Recap - Game 2

Let's jump right into the numbers.

Four Factors Recap


The way that the majority of these numbers play out show how close the game was. This was clearly a game where offense ruled. Similar to the last game, Marquette was able to win the battle of effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and turnovers, but lost on Offensive Rebounding and Free Throw Rate (more on that in a second). Thanks to shooting 12-25 from three, Marquette had a good showing on eFG%. The Turnover Rate for Marquette was outstanding, but Notre Dame did a much better job protecting the ball this game than last time (31% at the BC). As a reminder, 20% is considered average, so ND was better than average. ND won the battle of offensive rebounding again, but the difference was not all that great. No, the big difference in this game was the free throw line.

Is there a legitimate gripe about free throws or not?

The answer is actually somewhat murky. By now, we all know the numbers. Thirty one free throws for Notre Dame as opposed to Marquette's eight free throws. On the one hand, Notre Dame is the number two team in the country at limiting teams to Free Throw Rate. Their opponents average a Free Throw Rate of 20.7%, so our rate of 11% for this game was half of that. Seven of Notre Dame's Opponents have ended up with a Free Throw Rate under 15%. Furthermore, in our last game, we had a FTR of 20.6% and ND still had a FTR of 43.1%.

On the other hand, Marquette averages a per-game Free Throw Rate of 35.5%. Our standard deviation for this FTR is 10.7%. Therefore, 95% of our Free Throw Rates should be between 14% and 57%. In other words, the Free Throw Rate for this game was in the bottom 2.5% of all expected results. Of course, we are dealing with a sample size of twenty-two games too. Also, as reported by AC016097 at the MarquetteHoops.com board, Marquette didn't shoot any free throws in the last fifteen minutes of the game, while ND shot 17. There would seem to be some semblance of a legitimate beef.

But what's done is done, and if Marquette hits a few more of those bunnies, it's all a moot point.

Big East Projected Finish

Pomeroy predicts us with a record of 22-8 (11-7), which would mean finishing 6-2 in our final eight games. Based on our Big East season stats, we predict to a conference record of 9.5-8.5. That would mean finishing 4-4 or 3-5. Based on how we've been playing the last five games, we predict to a conference record of 11.6 - 6.4. That would mean finishing 7-1 or 6-2. I'll take either the Pomeroy or last five games predictions, please!

Individual Player Ratings


There's a few good things about the Individual Player Ratings. First, it's nice to see Dominic James break out of his slump. It's also great to see Lazar bounce back from his rough game against Louisville. Hayward is clearly the most valuable (statistical) player on the team, especially when we consider conference play.

However, there were some rough games for McNeal, Matthews, and Barro. Matthews has been one of the best players on the team during conference play, but this was a poor game. It was nice to see Barro contribute on the Defensive End, but his offensive outing was hard to watch. I do believe that if he gets 2-3 more field goals to drop, we're talking about what a great game he had. McNeal was average on defense, but poor on offense. Frankly, for as harsh as people have been on the team thus far, McNeal seems to get a pass, but he's probably having the least impact on the team out of our top four players. That's not good for the 06-07 team MVP.

Later on this week, we'll have more on DJ, McNeal, Matthews, and Lazar, looking at year-to-date stats, conference stats, and individual Win-Loss Records. For now, let's move on to Seton Hall, where we'll hopefully start that final season run of 7-1.

Saturday, February 09, 2008

MU Loses @ Notre Dame

Marquette loses another on the road.

Marquette trailed Notre Dame for most of the game, down 10 with 2:34 to play, heading for a double-digit loss. Playing inspired offense and defense down those last 2 minutes, MU nearly tied the game on a last second shot, but fell short. Final score, 86-83 bad guys.

Dominic James led the Warriors with 23 points, scoring 10 in the final 2 minutes of play, with ND playing soft. Lazar Hayward had 21 points and 11 rebounds for a double-double. One sore spot was Jerel McNeal's play, who went 3-15 and missed a layup/dunk attempt while completely unguarded. The Ooze also had a tough day, going 1-9, although he did snag 12 rebounds.

While Marquette still might have lost, the officiating was lopsided, to say the least. The refs awarded Notre Dame 31 free throws to MU's 8, and blew some obvious calls, most notably, a kicked ball that a ref called an over-and-back violation, giving ND the ball.

No one should be surprised Marquette couldn't pull off a victory at Notre Dame today. ND has a 33 game home winning streak (which began after a MU victory 2 years ago). MU was a 5 point dog. MU was 1-3 on the road in the Big East. Notre Dame, while picked to finish 9th in the Big East, is easily one of the top 4 teams in the Big East, and are #21 in the country. It was a game we were supposed to lose, and if there's a bright side, played hard in the 2nd half and weren't blown out like our other road losses.

With the loss, Marquette is solidly in the middle of the Big East, at 6-5 and is on the road to Seton Hall on Tuesday.

For the record, I am now 11 for 11 in picking BE games for CS's pre-season predictions. Let's hope that's right down the stretch, winning 6 of the last 8 games. Hope, hope, hope.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Can MU win big?

That's what SNY's Brendon Desrochers is asking in his latest article on SNY........can MU win big while being so small.

Ousmane Barro, paging PT for Ousmane Barro.

Nice work, Brendon

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Half Full or Half Empty?

There certainly does seem to be far more of the Half-Empty types around lately. In truth, neither answer is completely right and neither answer is completely wrong, although one of those viewpoints is certainly more recent and more vivid. Let's move onto the numbers and address the silver linings and the clouds of our most recent game.

Four Factors Review

Half-Full? Marquette won on three of the Four Factors, including on Offensive Rebounding for the second game in a row.

Half-Empty? This was our second worst effective Field Goal Percentage of the year. The worst was our first game against Louisville. It was our third worst Offensive Efficiency outing.

Season Projections based on Offensive and Defensive Ratings

Half-Full? Pomeroy projects us with a season record of 23-7 (12-6 in the Big East)

Half-Empty? Based on our Big East Conference averages (Team ORtg 102.5 ; Team DRtg 100.7), we project to a conference record of 9.8 - 8.2. Looking at how we've been playing the last five games (Team ORtg 101.9 ; Team DRtg 101.9), we project to a conference record of 9-9. That would mean losing six times out of the next nine games.

Individual Ratings



Half Full?
We got net positive games from Wesley Matthews, Jerel McNeal, and Ousmane Barro. Matthews appears to be really coming into form during conference play. Plus, Maurice Acker was the net points leader for the team and fan fave Scott Christopherson continues to provide a net positive impact in limited minutes.

Half-Empty? Yet again, Louisville managed to shut down Lazar Hayward. Hayward has had only four games with a net negative impact, for a total of -10.7 points. Almost all of those negative net points (-10.1) have come against Louisville. Our top two three point shooters, Cubillan and Fitzgerald, were negative net contributors. Fitz and Burke had offensive ratings of zero! Plus, James continues to endure his slump.

Monday's game was another rough one, and these are really starting to wear on the fan base. It's getting harder to look for the Half-Full folks around, but perhaps things will turn around on Saturday. Saturday really could be the critical point of the season.
-------------------------
In other news, Jonah Keri (from the New York Sun and ESPN.com) recently published an interesting article on Inconsistent Teams. One of his featured teams was Marquette, who ranks at the bottom of Pomeroy's inconsistency rankings, saying:

Don't be surprised if you see one or more of these three make the Elite Eight — or all three bow out in the first weekend of the big dance.

Mr. Keri also thought well enough to consider Marquette as a potential Final Four Team way back in early November. Let's not let that ruin his credibility, though. Maybe he's just a Half-Full kind of person...

What do you think?
Talk about it here on MUScoop - - half full or half empty.

Frustrated fans a plenty...time to go back to class

Less than 24 hours later, fans displeasure has not abated much. Some folks have come back off the ledge, others have jumped....both decisions grounded in some truth.

The schism that exists between the pro-Crean vs anti-Crean remains alive and well. Again, both with nuggets of truth in their quiver to make their case.

As someone that has always been more optimistic then pessimistic when it comes to the coaching side of the house, I confess wholeheartedly that last night dulled the shine for me to an alarming degree.



It was an issue of class, or better stated a lack there of. Tom Crean has seemingly exercised good judgment in this department for most of his years at Marquette. Whether it was taking on the Al McGuire Children's Run leadership, assisting in the molding many of his players into fine citizens (who are polite, confident, community oriented), stressing the importance of school and the importance of the university. I have met many of these young men and they are outstanding people and have been guided well by Crean and his staff (and of course mostly by their parents/guardians). Good stuff, not all required but expected of someone in his position.

What is not expected is what happened at the end of last night's game. After his team got smoked on the court from the opening whistle, the conclusion of the game was known for a long time. Man up, shake hands and move on. This is not what happened. Crean shook Rick Pitino's hand, clearly an action that has it's own underlying issues (for another day), but then took a hard left turn immediately across the court and to the locker room. No shaking of the other coaches hands or players.

I thought I was watching a UWM vs Illinois-Chicago game with Bruce Pearl and Jimmy Collins again. It was classless when those two did it, but at least then everyone knew way in advance that both weren't going to palm up. This was different. This was straight out of poor loser/poor sportsmanship 101 text book. When Crean's clubs have beaten Louisville, which has happened many times, Crean has had no problem shaking the hands of everyone on that staff. Now when he's blown out, he doesn't?

That's just plain wrong. I'm sure in the heat of the moment he was pissed off and wanted to get out of there. Doesn't excuse it. 24 hours earlier in front of 95 million people, Bill Bellichek bolted off the field with 1 second left. Is there an epidemic underway?

Coach Crean would be smart to demand of himself what he demands of his players. Time to go back to class, Coach. It is actions like last night where fractures start in fan bases and support erodes for teams and coaches. This club is an incredible 26-16 in the Big East the last 2+ years, one of the best in the conference. Fans expect a lot, fans sometimes expect too much as a result of previous successes. Frustrations build up, especially with games last night. When you pile on and mix in an action of not shaking hands, those frustrations do not go away, but rather they are exacerbated.

Plenty of opportunities ahead to show both the team and coach have learned from the recent setbacks. Let's hope a little class was the first lesson learned. Stay Classy Milwaukee!

And hire an Athletic Director..... they are there for a reason, to help guide coaches and steer them back on course.

Tom Crean should just...well....SIT DOWN!

As I watched tonight's nightmare unfold, I took notice of Tom Crean on the sidelines doing his usual routine. Back and forth in the coach's box, barking out plays, clapping, grabbing his diet soda, more back and forth...same routine really for the last 9 years. Don't get me wrong, the guy is averaging 20 wins a year with that routine and done some things around here that haven't been done in decades.

However, sometimes you need to shake things up a touch...or a lot. I can hear and see the plays we're running on tv with his hand signals and shouting, I'm certain the other team 45 feet down the line can figure it out as well. Besides, when you're team is constantly looking to the bench to come up with a play, it sometimes pollutes their game thoughts. To much over thinking, not enough instinctive play. Basketball players become robots.

Here's an idea....SIT DOWN. Not a whole game, maybe not even a whole half. How about from one media timeout to the next? Yeah, I know, it's just a silly notion and everyone has silly ideas after a loss. Everyone wants to play Tuesday morning coach. Well, indulge me. Sit down. For just a touch.

Allow these juniors and seniors to be leaders....there are none right now that I see demonstrating any true leadership qualities. Crean said himself during the post game press conference that communication tonight was at an all-time low. Well, does that surprise anyone if the only person that is talking 99% of the time is the coach barking out plays and sets?

Coaches have to adapt just like everyone else. Time to take a chill pill every once in awhile....take a seat Jack. I'm not saying roll the ball out there and just let them play for 40 minutes without adult supervision....not at all. You can call out a few plays from your derriere, or even let them figure out the flow on their own, that is what they practice for every day. It's one thing to be the ring leader 24/7 and many teams need that. Some coaches need it apparently, too. However, I see an experienced and talented team right now that is looking for a leader on the court (a player) ....why not let them seize that moment and find that leader?

Sit down, take the weight off your feet, you may just find out that your club grows a bit more with a longer leash. At the very least, they will learn to trust each other a bit more and force them to communicate with one another while playing the game.

Just a thought from 2000 miles away.

Monday, February 04, 2008

A sickly performance by Marquette

Dominic James had the flu and did not start for the first time in his career. It appeared as if the entire team had the flu. A performance that was sickly in every regard as Marquette was again routed by Louisville for the second time this year. It was MU's first home loss of the season.

The performance looked like many of the recent games by MU this year. They struggled to beat South Florida, played very poorly in the first 16 minutes at Cincinnati, and tonight on national television were outclassed at every turn. The game was over in the first five minutes.

Louisville strolling to the rim with the greatest of ease as MU missed defensive assignments in their matchup 2-3 zone. After about the 7th or 8th uncontested basket, Crean bagged that plan but it didn't help much. While Louisville's shots became a little tougher against the man to man, the Cardinals had no problem down low or going deep from beyond the arc. MU's shooting woes only added to the stench coming from the rotting patient.

So here we were, a national tv audience and a chance for retribution with 3rd place in the Big East in site. Two hours later, a blowout and another horrid performance begs where this team is heading. Sure MU is still in fantastic shape for the post season, but there is something seriously missing from this team the last three weeks of the season and no end in site where that something is coming from.

The team that handled Wisconsin in Madison, the team that crushed nationally ranked Notre Dame, the team that came within one possession of taking out Duke.....not sure where they are, but they are AWOL. With tough games at Notre Dame and at Seton Hall up next, MU better hope to find something soon. The patient is sick and the drugs ain't working.

One thing is for certain, when the coaches picked Louisville to win this conference as co-champions, they weren't far off the mark. Now that they are healthy they look very good.

The final score....71-57 in a game that wasn't that close at all. On a positive note, Bobby Knight announced his resignation today during the first half of the game which means tonight on ESPN and elsewhere the attention will be paid to him and not this dreadful performance.

The loss knocked MU's RPI from 18 to 32 and put the Golden Eagles into a muddled mass with 4 losses in conference play.

Recaps of tonight's embarrassment:

Marquette v Louisville, Round 2

UPDATED

Just to recap: Round One went to Louisville via a viscious TKO. The judges scored the bout 71-51 in favor of the Cardinals. BTW, Louisville fans are ready for the next rev.

The Cardinals (16-6, 6-3) swoop into Milwaukee as winners of three of their last four games. Earl Clark and Terrence Williams each delivered double-doubles in Louisville's 87-50 mauling of Rutgers on Saturday. The Cardinals are the most offensively balanced team in the Big East, with five players averaging in double figures. Terrence Williams and Jerry f@!@#$g Smith each average a shade over 11ppg, followed by Earl Clark, David Padgett and Derrick Caracter at 10ppg. The Cardinals are a ferocious defensive team, one of the best in the nation particularly inside the arc. It is no surprise that Louisville held each of its last three opponents to 40% shooting or less.

After Saturday's impressive 75-60 road win over Cincinnati, the Golden Eagles (16-4, 6-3) return home on Monday night where they are 12-0 this season. Marquette's win was keyed by the inspired play of the reincarnated Ousmane Barro, who contributed 19 points (9-10 from the field) and 10 boards off the bench. Barro's effort complemented another fine performance by Lazar Hayward (19 pts, 5 boards), who's fast becoming one of the Big East's best forwards. The outburst from the frontline helped MU out-rebound a team for the first time in nearly a month.

With back-to-back road games looming at Notre Dame and Seton Hall, a home win is essential for MU if the Golden Eagles expect to compete for one of four first round byes in the Big East tournament (if not the regular season crown itself). Louisville owns two conference road wins, though the Cardinals lost their most recent road game at UConn.

A few other random notes:

  • Dominic James is just not the same player since the Jamar Nutter hard foul back on January 8. Since then James is only hitting 37% from the field and has failed to score in double digits in four of his last five outings - - the worst stretch of his career.
  • What is going on with David Cubillan? He played just seven minutes against Cincy and failed to score, and in 21 minutes of action against USF he came up with just three points. As well as Ville defends the paint, MU could use a productive Cubillan tonight.
  • Lazar Hayward scored in double figures in each of the last four games, which is no surprise.......the 6'6" sophomore now leads MU in scoring at 13.7ppg and leads the team in double figure scoring games with 17.
  • Wesley Matthews has rounded into form. Since struggling to a season-low four points against Seton Hall, Matthews is averaging better than 13 points per outing.
Tipoff for tonight's matchup is scheduled for 6pm CST on ESPN's Big Monday.

Media Updates
Top Five Numbers Preview

When we did our preview the for the last game, the key areas to watch for were Louisville's Defense, especially at limiting 2-point FGs and on blocked shots. We've already covered that, and not a lot has changed on the Louisville Pomeroy Scouting Report. True to form, the recap of the last game showed that Louisville was better than Marquette at almost every facet of the game. MU was even victim to several season lows in offensive efficiency, effective Field Goal Percentage, and defensive Free Throw Rate.

8 - Louisville's National Rating at Defensive Efficiency
  • Louisville holds opponents to a score of 85.5 on the defensive end
  • Last time we played, they were ranked 11
  • Holding Marquette to an efficiency of 78.0 helped there
11 - UL's rating at effective Field Goal (eFG%) Defense
  • Louisville holds opponents to an effective Field Goal Percentage of 43.1%
  • As mentioned above, a lot of this is from inside the arc, where opponents only achieve 40.7%
  • That percentage is #9 in the country
30.4% - Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) achieved by Marquette in the last game
  • This was a season low, and our next lowest was 40.2% against Seton Hall
  • Expect Marquette to fare much better (especially from three) in front of the home crowd
59.2% - Defensive Free Throw Rate allowed by Marquette against Louisville last time
  • Louisville got to the line 60% of the time that they had a Field Goal Attempt
  • Will Marquette be able to keep this percentage lower? Louisville only gets to the line 23.9% of the time on average.
69% - Our predicted chances of winning according to Pomeroy
  • Of course, we were also given a 66% chance of winning the last game, and we all know how that turned out
Last time, there were plenty of season worsts for Marquette, but we don't expect that those results will happen a second time. Even if Marquette gets closer to the season averages for Louisville's Free Throw Rate and effective Field Goal Defense, this is a different game. In front of the home crowd, look for Marquette to win.

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Cincy Numbers Recap

Great win for the team yesterday. After a very ugly start to the game, which gave a lot of us a "not again" feeling, the team played very well getting back into the game and building a lead. Looking at the statistical analysis, below is a view of the Four Factors for yesterday's game.

It's nice to see Marquette maintain an advantage in almost all areas. Interestingly enough, Marquette did not have an advantage on the Turnover Rate for one of the few times in Big East play. Furthermore, MU managed to get the effective Field Goal Percentage to 50% for the first time since against Notre Dame. The team also managed to keep the opponent from getting to the free throw line. Finally, as has been mentioned Marquette finally managed to out-rebound an opponent, especially on the Offensive end.

Despite the fact that Marquette out-rebounded their opponent for the first time in eight games, it still wasn't a very good performance at 31%. At one point this season, we were averaging over 45% at offensive rebounding. Looking at the chart below, we still have a trend where the team is not doing well at either end on the boards.


Individual Performances

For the individual performances, it does seem a little surprising that McNeal ends up as the statistical stud of the game. A great deal of this has to do with his seven assists and zero turnovers. However, as has already been covered, Ousmane Barro had a great game yesterday. Note that Barro only gets credit (rightly) for 12.7 points produced, because a lot of his success has to also do with the quality of assists he was receiving from the guards. Furthermore, it's nice to see both Hayward and Matthews have net positive games.

At this snapshot of the season, Hayward has moved past both McNeal and James to be the statistical MVP of the season. The entire team has 278 net points, which is the sum of all of our win margins. Lazar has contributed 65.7 of those net points, which is greatest on the team. McNeal (60.6 net points) and James (57.7 net points) are not all that far behind, however.

Speaking of Wesley Matthews, it's safe to say that he is now back on track. Looking at the graph of his cumulative point contributions provides a nice way of viewing his progress. For help reading the graph, focus on the cumulative point contributions and whether or not the slope is upward or downward. Despite a middling-to-rough start to the season, Matthews has gradually been sloping upwards, even when the team has been doing poorly. It's been great to see his contributions the last few games, and let's hope that his early season struggles are behind him. At 23.0 net points for the season, he still has a ways to go to catch up to Lazar, McNeal, and James.

Not a lot of rest for the team or the fan base, as Marquette gets ready to face Louisville for the second time this season. We should all expect a much better game this time around. More on previews from the CS team later.

Saturday, February 02, 2008

Marquette Breaks Seal - Beats UC on Road by 15

Marquette wins quality game at Cincinnati, 75-60.

After another slow start that had Marquette down 9 after 16 minutes of play, a new player hit the court. While #41 Ousmane Barro has been on Marquette's roster all year, this Ousamane Barro was someone entirely different.

This Oooze was hitting shot after shot, going 9 for 10.

This Ooze was grabbing rebound after rebound, ending the game with 10.

This Ooze has been on the back of a milk carton, missing in action for a score of games.

An evil twin, perhaps? Maybe it was Ousmane "Barrow", as ESPN flashed on the screen several times.

Lazar Hayward also had a superlative game again, hitting 19 points for the second game in a row. In total, 4 MU players hit double figures, with Ooze, Lazar, Matthews and McNeal reaching. McNeal also dished off a whopping 7 assists.

Scott Christoperson sparked MU's run, as he entered the game and 5 seconds later, promptly hit this 3: (props to TallTitan)



This is the first road win in the Big East for #16 Marquette (16-4, 6-3), who, let's face it, needed this win badly, losing the past 3 away from the Bradley Center. The win gives MU a solid grip on 3rd place in the Big East, with a 6-3 record. Half the BE season is now complete. Marquette will head into Monday's showdown with Louisville with some good mo-jo.

AP Recap / Play by Play / Box Score
Ooze Montage - Scoring Barrage
JS Online Recap
Rosiak - Wrapping up Cincy
Cincy Newspaper Story
Cincy Columnist on Game

Friday, February 01, 2008

For Marquette, the road awaits

UPDATED
Despite its 15-4 overall record and 5-3 start in Big East play, the Marquette Golden Eagles find themselves in a tenuous situation over the next ten days. The Golden Eagles' uneven play in their last seven games has created agita up and down Wells Street as the team moves into its most difficult stretch of Big East games. Beginning with Saturday's game at Cincinnati, the Golden Eagles play three of the next four contests on the road against teams that are positively surging -- Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and Seton Hall. Marquette's only home cooking will come against Louisville, a team that pounded them just a few weeks ago.

First up for Marquette is a trip to the Shoe to play Mick Cronin's surprising Cincinnati Bearcats (10-11, 5-4). The Bearcats return home after blowing out West Virginia in Morgantown, 62-39. Cincy dominated WVU in all facets of the game, most notably on the boards where the Bearcats enjoyed a +15 margin, while holding the Mountaineers to 20% shooting from the field.

The Bearcats are led by sophomore point guard Deonta Vaughn. Vaughn is the only Bearcat averaging in double figures with 17 ppg (he nails 40% of his shots from deep). Former MU recruit John Williamson chips in at nine points per game and a team-leading six rebounds.

Despite the productive play from Vaughn, Cronin's bunch is last in the league in turnover margin and near the bottom of Big East in assist to turnover ratio. Meanwhile, MU leads the Big East in steals and is in the top quartile in turnover margin. This points to an opportunity for MU's backcourt to get back on track defensively, though it's been some time since Marquette asserted itself in this manner.

In addition, the Bearcats are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league, but will that be a factor on Saturday? The Golden Eagles have been out-rebounded in each of the last seven contests, the longest stretch of the Crean era. Toughness on the glass, a hallmark of Crean-era teams, has been lacking on the baseline since the conference opener against Providence.

For MU though, it is all about the guards. Simply put, the core of MU's attack has under-performed in conference tilts. Only Wesley Matthews, who has scored in double figures in seven of eight conference games, has elevated his play in the last month. In conference play, Dominic James is averaging 11ppg down from 13ppg in non-conference action. James, hampered by a stubborn wrist injury, is shooting just 58% from the line and 40% from the floor in Big East play. To his credit, James protects the ball exceptionally well as his 3.2/1 assist to turnover ratio in Big East action proves, and he's been an underrated on-the-ball defender all season. Jerel McNeal's play remains a great mystery, perhaps highlighted by his 33 minute, zero rebound effort at UConn. Offensively, McNeal is hitting just 36% of his shots in league play, including a frigid 18% from deep. Worse, McNeal has coughed the ball up 27 times in Big East play and appears to be out of synch offensively.

Tipoff is scheduled for 11am CST on Saturday. The game will be broadcast on ESPN Full Court.

It's time for the backcourt to emerge once again and for this team to sack up, embrace the Warriors Code and own the road.



You're the fighter you've got the fire

The spirit of a warrior, the champion's heart
You fight for your life because the fighter never quits
You make the most of the hand you're dealt

Because the quitter never wins

No!


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