Warriors take the fight out of the Irish

What a difference a few days can make.

After turning in the worst defensive performance of the Buzz Williams era just two days earlier, Marquette re-emerged as a Big East contender last night. With new-found defensive toughness and a wicked-good offense the Marquette Warriors dominated 10th ranked Notre Dame on Monday night winning 79-57.

The Warriors put four players in double figures led by a career-high 21 points from Dwight Buycks, who was a perfect 5-5 from 3-point range. Jae Crowder finished with 18, Jimmy Butler added 15, and Darius Johnson-Odom chipped in with 13. The Fearsome Foursome keyed a dominant offensive performance for MU which hit on 53% of its shots overall and nearly 71% from deep (12-17). The efficiency geeks are still panting over MU's breathtaking eFG% of 65% (78% in the 2H!).

All of that offense is fine but the real difference last night was defense. MU played with an edge defensively and it showed. MU held the sweet-shooting Irish to a paltry eFG% of 42%. Notre Dame came in with a national top 15 offense -- averaging over 1.15 points per possession (ppp) -- and the Warriors held them to 0.90 ppp, the Irish's third worst offensive performance of the season. This was easily MU's finest defensive performance against a quality opponent this year.

Struggling from the field from the opening tip, Mike Brey's club could not free up leading scorers Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis. The duo, which combines to average more than 32 points per game, finished with a total of 19 points on just 17 attempts from the field. Marquette's defensive scheme forced the Irish to rely on third, fourth or even fifth options offensively and ND was not equipped to keep pace.

The moral of the story is that Marquette can play defense after all. Let's see them do it consistently.

Let's pile on. The loss was Notre Dame's most lopsided defeat in nearly three years -- and that loss also came at the hands of the Warriors. Marquette buried the Irish 92-66 on January 12, 2008.

With the win MU moves to 12-5 on the season and 3-1 in Big East play. Next up for Marquette is a trip to Louisville on Saturday.

Box Score
AP recap
Rosiak blogs a recap
Roiak's recap from the paper
Tom Noie of the South Bend Tribune recaps the Irish clunker
ESPN has a video post-game extra

Let's Beat the Irish

How can you tell someone went to Notre Dame?
They'll tell you

It's funny because it's true.

Enter the Irish. Mike Brey is getting well-deserved kudos for his coaching job so far this season, with ND racing out to a surprising 14-2 record. Seniors Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis set the pace for the Irish, each averaging 16 points per game and shooting better than 40% from long-range. Abromaitis also grabs more than seven boards per game and remains one of the Big East's toughest match-ups. Scott Martin and Tyrone Nash each add ten points per outing. The Irish have a lot of firepower, but MU catches a huge break with the expected absence of Carleton Scott, an athletic forward averaging 12 per game, due to injury.

After a rough game against Pitt (more on that in a second), Rosiak has a pretty good blog entry up about how Marquette prepares to face a new-look Notre Dame. Usually, we love Rosiak's stuff, but our analysis of the team contradicts his lead.

Aside from the undefeated Syracuse Orange, there probably isn’t a team in the Big East Conference playing better right now than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

and

In addition to their usual ability to put the ball in the basket, the Irish are also showing an attitude and fight on the defensive end of the floor – traits that began to show themselves down the stretch last season as Notre Dame got itself into the NCAA tournament despite playing a large chunk of time without injured star Luke Harangody.

We agree that the Irish are playing surprisingly well. Already this year the Irish have taken out Georgia, Cal, UW-Madison and Gonzaga. Plus, Notre Dame already stands at 3-1 in conference having defeated Georgetown, UConn and St. John's. Frankly, ND's only losses thus far are to a pair of Pomeroy top 10 teams on the road (Kentucky, Syracuse).

The reason to call out Rosiak is because, frankly, I'm having a hard time understanding how Notre Dame is beating teams consistently based on "attitude and fight" on the defensive side of the ball. Sure, their offense is the #10 offense in the country, but just like most years, their defense lags considerably. Better said, maybe, is that their defense is pretty inconsistent. For example, Notre Dame held UW-Madison to 0.90 ppp (points per possession) but then allowed Gonzaga to score 1.21 ppp. Where Notre Dame has been strong defensively is defensive rebounding (#8) in the country, as well as defensive free throw rate (FTR) (I'd give you their rank, but defensive FTR is practically insignificant). What hasn't been true is that defense is winning games for ND.

Luckily for Marquette, ND is only slightly better than average at defensive eFG%. That's good news, because if we know one thing, it's that Marquette can run an offense and get a good effective field goal percentage. Even the top-five Pitt Panthers failed to slow down MU's offensive juggernaut, and that aptitude will keep MU in every game this year.

Here's the bad news. The only games that ND lost? Kentucky held the Irish to 0.90 ppp and Syracuse held them to 0.93 ppp. Marquette couldn't even hold Mississippi Valley State under 0.90 points per possession.

Now, I'm going to rant for a few minutes about the Pitt game and Marquette's defense. You know what? Marquette's defense sucks. Whatever Buzz is doing defensively is. not. working. As we covered on twitter, the defensive performance against Pitt was the worst defensive performance in the last fifteen years. FIFTEEN YEARS! Maybe longer, but we don't know because the stats don't go back that far. That's pathetic.

But it's not as though the game against Pitt was just a scenario of them getting lucky. No. We will not accept that Pitt was "just hot". Not when teams are consistently burning Marquette. (UW - 1.19 ppp, Vandy - 1.12, WVU - 1.14, Rutgers - 1.06, Pitt - 1.41) There are systemic issues with the defensive philosophy. Of course, nobody knows what the defensive philosophy is besides "don't foul".

It's time to fix defense, Buzz. You recruit talent. Your offense is awesome. Marquette competes hard in every game. The games are almost always close. Marquette has a very good chance of beating almost any opponent based solely on offense, and that's great. But seriously, whatever you are doing defensively is not working. /end rant

Back to Notre Dame. Here's the clincher. This game is almost certainly going to be a close one dominated by offense. Considering the Warriors are at home and will have an athletic advantage against the Irish, perhaps MU will be able to contest shots and defend better than usual. The absence of Scott surely works to MU's advantage.

It's time for the home team to bring that home-court advantage. And if there's one thing we know, it's that MU is comfortable in close games.

Will there be stops at the end to bring home the win?

At the mid-season point, how did we do on predictions

Here we are 16 games into the 2010-2011 season with 16 guaranteed games left to play. So how are we doing at Cracked Sidewalks on our predictions from way back in November? Remarkably well, thank you very much.

We stand currently with an 11-5 record which was darn close to the consensus average from the 8 member team of CS. The average at Cracked Sidewalks was 11.625 wins and 4.25 losses at this point.

Only Tim K. correctly picked an 11-5 record at this point while six of us were slightly optimistic at 12-4. No one, however, predicted all 16 games correctly. The Wisconsin game was the most consistent bugaboo that threw the team off. Tim B., John, Jamie, BMA and Steve all missed just one game thus far.

The team originally picked 11 conference wins back in November with a low of 9 (Kevin) and a high of 13 (BMA / John).

A Slow Down Shootout at The Zoo

Two games into the Big East season Buzz Williams (11-4, 2-0) has the good ship Warrior sailing into Pittsburgh with a 2-0 record. Rosiak calls this the beginning of a torturous stretch, including six ranked opponents in their next eight games. On the other hand GoMarquette.com says it wraps up a two-game stretch. Regardless of how you look at the schedule Saturday will provide a true marker of where Marquette stands as a team.

Heading into the game the odds are not in MU's favor. Ken Pomeroy gives Pitt an 87% chance of victory (80-68). Pitt is bigger, more experienced, better offensively, and better defensively. They molest collies, knock down the elderly, and digest the tears of children. They're really good.

After this game, which Marquette will probably lose, the dominant story out there will be about how Pitt dominated the glass to win against Marquette. And it's true... Pitt is AWESOME on the glass but we're here to tell you the key is really effective field goal percentage (eFG%). And since Marquette's defense has been poor all year, we're looking for ways the Warriors can sneak out of the Zoo with a win.

We're looking for the Slow Down Shootout. This game is probably going to feature a shorter rotation, and thanks to Pitt's style, it'll have fewer possessions. That's good for Marquette because fewer possessions will increase our odds of winning. Because both teams have better offenses than defenses, we're rooting for a game with both teams having quality offensive efficiency. Again, it ain't like MU's winning this games with their defense. Luckily MU's offense is pretty darn good.

Pittsburgh enters the game at 14-1 overall, 2-0 in the Big East. Last time out the Panthers topped the Friars in Providence 83-79. Pitt is led by the three-headed monster of Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker and Gilbert Brown. Gibbs leads the team at 16ppg (45% from deep), Wanamaker averages 13 points to go with 5 boards and 5 assists while the 6'5" Brown adds 11 points and four boards. Pitt is very deep with nine players averaging at least 13 minutes per game. Big man Gary McGhee leads the team on the glass at more than seven rebounds per game.

MU's best bet to counter the deeper, more physical Panthers is another big game from Darius Johnson-Odom. Since his stinker against Wisconsin DJO is shooting a red-hot 55% from the field (36-66) highlighted by a scintillating 52% (15-29) from downtown.

With Johnson-Odom regaining his form, the forward combination of Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler have more freedom of action on the offensive end, and we've seen what Crowder in particular has done with that of late. Butler has scored in double-figures in 14 of MU's 15 games this year and has found his stride of late as well, going to the free throw line 17 times in the Warriors' first two Big East games. Meanwhile Crowder is unquestionably the newcomer of the year in the Big East to this point and his offensive efficiency is among of the nation's best. Yessir, MU's offense is very good.

Now let's look at the keys to the game:

Key #1 - Marquette HAS to win the eFG% battle. HAS to. If they don't win this battle, abandon hope. Two things here. First, our two point offense is our strength. Their two point defense is their strength. Which will prevail? Second, which DJO will we see? The hot one from the last five games? Better hope so, because one of Pitt's two weaknesses (more on this in a second) is their three point defense. Marquette has a real chance to keep pace offensively. Want to know how Tennessee beat Pitt? They shot the @#$% out of the ball!

Key #2 - Don't get worked on the boards. Yes, eFG% is the key. But if Pitt dominates offensive rebounding percentage, we're done. Remember Pitt is #1 nationally on the offensive glass and #33 on the defensive glass. Marquette won eFG% against UW@Madison and Vanderbilt, but it wasn't enough.

Key #3 - Protect the ball! (a turnover rate of 26% against Rutgers? blech) Pitt's other defensive weakness, although by design, is that Pitt hardly ever forces turnovers. Giving up turnovers to a team that hardly ever forces them invites disaster, especially on the road in a place like the Zoo. Pitt already has a great homecourt advantage, so why get the crowd crazy by being careless with the ball?

Summary
By now we know that Marquette's defense will not stifle an efficient opponent's offensive game plan. Still Marquette does have a chance of matching the Panthers in an offensive shootout. In short, Marquette needs to blister the effective field goal percentage and win the turnover margin by enough to compensate for Pitt's undeniable rebounding advantage. Then pray that the team hits their free throws.

Pitt is going to get their points. Can Marquette keep pace? It says here to never count out Marquette.

Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm Marquette Standard Time.

Links

• Jon Rothstein picks MU to win this weekend, but if we do, it won't be because of defense.
• Anonymous Eagle has an interview with Cardiac Hill (pitt blogger)
• CBS Sports gives this game the preview treatment.
• Here's the Pitt AD preview version of the game.
  

Morning Grinds: News & Notes for Marquette Hoops

UPDATED

The Warriors are in Pittsburgh preparing for the second leg of the current two-game road trip. After topping Rutgers on the road MU remains one of seven undefeated teams in Big East play with St. John's setting the pace at 3-0. Before we get to the Saturday matchup here's a look at your morning grinds on MU:

• Shannon Ryan at the Chicago Tribune penned a profile of emerging star Jae Crowder this morning.
• Ray Mernagh of the Big East Basketball Report also profiled Crowder this week. And thanks to Ray for helping to keep MU's proper nickname alive and well.
  
• The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette compares the MU and Pitt programs and finds different paths to consistency. You must read this article.
• The Anonymous Eagle takes an early look at the matchup with the Panthers -- and even dips their toes in tempo-free stats.
• Adam Zagoria recaps yesterday's Big East coaches' conference call -- good info from Buzz and his peers.
• Jerry Carino offers up a Big East notebook. There's loads of good info here but somehow Carino ignored DJO on his "Who's Hot" list.
• Steve Novak was waived by the Dallas Mavericks.
• Wesley Matthews is profiled by The Columbian -- a great read.
  
• There's still no word on where former MU player Reggie Smith will land up. Smith left MU during the Christmas recess.
• Earlier this week Rob engaged with Luke Winn of CNNSI in a spirited debate on Twitter concerning the relative value of free-throw rate (FTR) and other tempo-free stats. The back and forth was enlightening -- and Luke brought it up in his updated NCAA Power Ranking article today. Thanks, Luke.
  

Marquette win makes road teams 5-14 in BE play

Marquette finally showed some zone busting, going 7 of 11 on treys in the first half including contributions from the big men (Jae Crowder hit his first three treys, and Joe Fulce his only attempt). Road teams were only 4-14 in Big East play before Marquette’s win, and even when the road team was the higher rated team they were only 3-6. Here are the road results by biggest win to biggest loss so far this season:

1. St. John's beat West Virginia 81-71
2. Marquette beat Rutgers 73-65
3. Pitt beat Providence 83-79
4. St. John's beat Providence 67-65
5. West Virginia beat DePaul 67-65

6. Georgetown lost to St. John's 61-58
7. UConn lost to Notre Dame 73-70
8. West Virginia lost to Marquette 79-74
9. South Florida lost to Connecticut 66-61
10. Providence lost to Syracuse 81-74
11. South Florida lost to Seton Hall 64-55
12. DePaul lost to Georgetown 86-75
13. Notre Dame lost to Syracuse 70-58
14. Georgetown lost to Notre Dame 69-55
15. UConn lost to Pittsburgh 78-63
16. Rutgers lost to Villanova 81-65
17. Depaul lost to Cincinnati 76-60
18. Seton Hall lost to Cincinnati 70-53
19. Seton Hall lost to Louisville 73-65

Marquette overcame an uncharacteristic 12 first half turnovers by once again drawing fouls including getting four on Rutgers’ tough big man Gilvydas Biruta by early in the second half.

MU did again leave too many 3-pointers open, especially by James Beatty (24 points) who kept Rutgers close.

However, the fast pace favored MU throughout, as Darius Johnson-Odom (29 points) and Crowder (15 points and 6 rebounds) dominated play for a second straight Big East game. Jimmy Butler was again clutch when he needed to step up (16 points, the one player hitting clutch free throws at the end while the rest of the team missed). Junior Cadougan dished out 8 assists to top his 7 assists against Duke for an all-time high.

Vander Blue was finally matched up against Beatty late in the game to stop him down the stretch. Blue also made a great “senior” like play when he made a bad pass for a turnover, but ran to the other end of the court to go to the floor and steal it and call timeout to stop a potential comeback by Rutgers.

Last year Marquette started the season 0-5 on the road but tonight's win gives them a 2-1 record, with the only loss being by one point in a very tough venue at Vanderbilt.

Because RPI credits 1.4 wins for a road win and only 0.6 for a road loss, so in RPI calculations MU is 2.8-.6 on the road, and would only drop to 2.8 – 1.2 even assuming they lost at Pitt Saturday.

This win will most MU into a projected finish in the 50s in the final RPI, as even with the missed free throws late they easily out performed the 4-point spread as well as ever computer model, all of which picked a win by a few points or an 8-point loss (Realtime RPI).

Warriors look to capture first road win of season

Fresh off a rejuvenating New Year's Day victory, the Marquette Warriors (10-4, 1-0) march into New Jersey tonight to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-4, 1-0) in search of their first road win of the season. (don't gimme that. UWM was NOT a road game)

After losing three winnable games in the closing moments, Marquette finally scratched out a close one. Sound familiar? It should... since last year's Warriors lost three consecutive one-possession games including the first two Big East tilts.

Is anybody feeling the magic once again? Is one win enough to turn the tide? At least one college basketball expert is already on board, Andy Glockner of CNNSI. Glockner, who rather enjoys tweeting it up with Warrior Nation, pegged MU as his second-half surprise team. So we got that going for us.

First things first. Claim that first real road win and turn last season's 0-2 Big East start all the way around. Or... show up in Pittsburgh on Saturday staring down a 1-2 start in conference action.

The Scarlet Knights are improving by leaps and bounds under new coach Mike Rice but this remains a winnable road game for Marquette. Offensively the Scarlet Knights are suspect, which is good news considering MU's spotty defensive profile so far this season. Interestingly, Rutgers defends the paint well -- on par with Vanderbilt's interior defense in fact -- which is where Marquette has been lethal all season long. Of course, MU carved up Vanderbilt's defense in Knoxville, so expect the Warriors to turn in another strong offensive effort. This will probably be complemented by a number of trips to the free throw line because of RU's propensity to foul.

With senior point guard Michael Coburn at the helm, the Scarlet Knights protect the ball very well and force a lot of turnovers, exactly the kind of profile we've come to expect from MU over the years. Given MU's backcourt-by-committee approach, turnover margin could be the game's tipping point.

Last time out Rutgers lost at Villanova 81 - 65. The Scarlet Knights led the Wildcats at the half by creating turnovers and nailing a high percentage from the floor, but they collapsed in the second half as Villanova's offense improved and the turnover rate declined. MU's strong offensive performances in the second half against both Vanderbilt and West Virginia bode well for tonight's game at the RAC.

The Scarlet Knights are led by Jonathan Mitchell, the Florida transfer who strongly considered Marquette as a prep in Mount Vernon, NY. The crafty 6'6" lefty averages 13 points and 6 boards per game, highlighted by 42% shooting from deep. Coburn scores 10 per night (47% FG, 39% 3-pt range) to go with four assists. Freshman Gilvydas Biruta, who averages 9 points and five boards, has scored in double figures in 8 of the Scarlet Knights' last 10 outings. Meanwhile freaky athlete Dane Miller averages 9 points, six boards and two blocks per game.

Rutgers is 7-0 at home this season. Pomeroy predicts a five-point MU victory.

Media Updates

• Rosiak's blog preview -- The RAC as a house of horrors
• Jerry Carino at the Asbury Park Press previews the game and calls MU "a quality team flying under the radar."
  
• Carino offers an injury update on the Scarlet Knights
• Carino on Mike Rice's focus on upgrading RU's defense
• GoMarquette sets up MU's two-game road trip

Is Defense Marquette's Achilles' Heel?

After last year's senior day game (which Marquette lost. Again. Of course) I had a conversation with someone at a Milwaukee watering hole. This person knows a lot more about basketball than I do, having served as both a team manager and a high school coach. Me... I mostly work with numbers and watch hoops. I was complaining that Marquette's defense was not good. His response was that Marquette was playing defense a lot better than they were at the beginning of the year.

We were both right. Back to this in a minute. Let's consider how important defense is to any program and what the gaps are for the Warriors.

Point #1 - Marquette will never be elite until their defense is elite.

The best summary of this fact comes from CNNSI's Luke Winn, whose holiday tradition of Early Warnings shows which teams are pretenders or contenders around New Year's Eve. What I particularly like is that he shows the offensive and defensive efficiency of NCAA Elite teams. Last year's list had the Elite Eight teams going back to 2003-2004. Winn's 2010 Early Warnings List (ps - he bags on UConn and ND) shows other teams that might be contenders or pretenders this year. Now, the point of Winn's list is to demonstrate which teams, ranked or unranked, might be real Elite Eight/Final Four/National Championship teams and which ones might not. However, it's all built on the notion that there is a profile for each Elite Eight team.

The average Elite Eight team has a national Defensive Efficiency Ranking of 16. The average Final Four team has a rank of 9. For giggles, National Champs average 5.3 nationally in defensive efficiency. But once your team's defensive efficiency gets worse than 25, you're really talking about a crazy run to make the Elite Eight (think Pittsnogle's WVU team or Stephen Curry's Davidson team). Honestly, even when there, Elite Eight is your ceiling.

But what does this mean for Marquette?

Here is the same chart with Marquette's defensive efficiency numbers from the last two and a half years -- the Buzz Williams Era.

There's the issue. Marquette has managed to develop a nearly elite offensive capability in the last three years. Buzz not only modifies the offense to the strengths of his team, but does it so effectively that the team runs a top 25 offense.

However, no matter how good MU is offensively it's the defense that will continue to hold the program back and is the reason that, despite an elite offense, Buzz's teams play so many close games. Ultimately, MU's inability to defend at a high level decreases the program's margin for error night after night.

Let's look at Buzz's progression as the MU head coach. Yes, I know that two years ago, Marquette was short. And last year MU was also short with an even shorter bench. This year Marquette is taller but now more inexperienced. Still, rationalizing poor defensive efficiency eventually just becomes a pile of excuses, especially after 2.5 years. After all, MU successfully makes the adjustments offensively year to year, and Buzz inherited a program that was consistently a good defensive team (#31 defensively in 2007 and #10 defensively the year before he became head coach).

Point #2 - Not all aspects of defense are the same

Essentially, defense can be broken up into the four factors. Those are not letting your opponent get good shots, forcing turnovers, defensive rebounding, and not letting your opponent get to the line. However, their relative weights are not the same. This is very important. Very. Important.

If one breaks down what contributes to defense, 27% of defense just comes from facing a D1 opponent for 40 min. However, 41% of defense is effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%). Defensive eFG is twice as important as forcing turnovers. Effective field goal percentage is three times as important as preventing offensive rebounds. And almost fourteen times more important than not letting your opponent get to the free throw line.

What this tells us is that the primary goal of a defense should be preventing open looks. Then it's a tossup between forcing turnovers and limiting offensive rebounds (although forcing turnovers is better). Finally, and way down the list, is preventing your opponent from getting to the line.

But what does this mean for Marquette?

Here's how Marquette ranked/ranks on the four factors. This is the big issue with Marquette's defense and the ceiling the Warriors' defensive performance places on the program. The aspect that is the most important is where MU ranks the worst. Consistently. The area that is the least important for defensive performance is where Marquette ranks the best. Consistently. What the numbers say is that Marquette is emphasizing the wrong type of defensive priorities, year after year.

Vandy, West Virginia, and NCAA games

The last two games against Vanderbilt and West Virginia show how Marquette remains competitive. Our offense is great. Realize that an average offense scores 1.00 points per possession (ppp) and Marquette scored 1.10 ppp against Vanderbilt (who has the #21 defense and only allows 0.88 ppp). On the road! MU had an offensive eFG% of 60% against one of the nation's better defensive teams. However, as that final basket showed, MU just couldn't make the stops. Against West Virginia, Marquette had an extraordinary 1.22 points per possession but gave up a remarkable 1.15 ppp while allowing WVU to shoot an eFG% of 56%. With offensive efficiency of this magnitude, MU should be winning games like these by double digits.

What MU is doing is winning games with their offense, but creating the lack of margin because of lousy defense. Last year Marquette had an Offensive Efficiency of 1.16 points per possession against Washington. Two years ago MU scored 1.11 points per possession against Missouri. Those efficiencies should have been good enough to win an NCAA game.

With this recent history, does anyone really believe Marquette can play lock-down defense when it matters?

Which brings us back to the story from the beginning of this post. I have no doubt that Buzz can coach defense. Well... better said, I don't know basketball well enough to question if the coaching staff is properly teaching defense. So I trust when someone that knows basketball better than I do says the team is playing better defense. He's right, MU is demonstrating modest improvement. Yet, the numbers are the numbers. Not only has Marquette consistently not played good enough defense the last two and a half years, but it's been neglecting the most important aspect of defense and emphasizing the least important. We're both right.

Happy New Year, MU Undefeated in Big East -- Down goes Huggins

Marquette started the Big East season off well with a gritty 79-74 win over WVU in the 10am New Year's Day Hangover Bowl, sponsored by Bob Huggins' Miracle Tonic.

The least-showered Bradley Center crowd in history was on their feet as early as I can remember, shaking off NYE residue at the 17:27 mark when Jae Crowder got his first bucket giving the Warriors a 9-0 lead.  The crowd enjoyed an early 11 point lead, only to have WVU claw back into the lead in the 2nd half.  MU executed well down the stretch, coming from behind, scoring the final 6 points to win by 5.

Bloody-Mary drinking fans watched as Jae Crowder went a crazy 12 for 14, 29 points, 8 rebs, 5 assists and 4 steals.

DJO also put up great numbers with 21 points .. and not to be missed was Jimmy Butler, who was silent offensively for the first 25 minutes, but ended up with 10 and 7, 6 assists, 2 blocks, 2 steals.

MU's rotation was a tight 8 players, with Blue, Junior, and Fulce chipping in 9 points off the bench.

The Warriors had no answer for WVU's Darryl Bryant who had a career best 25, and were often frustrated by Huggins' 2-3 zone, of which Buzz admitted he didn't expect.

Also of note, this is the first Warrior victory in a conference game reffed by Jim Burr since 1942.

Marquette travels to Rutgers on January 5th.

Box Score
Photo Gallery
Rosiak

Happy New Year!

WVU (projected #15 RPI) morning tip-off; MU needs 10 wins to make NCAA

For those of you who are just turning your attention from football (where the Big East has added TCU and gone 3-1 in Bowls!), here is what Marquette has going into the 10 a.m. opener against West Virginia tomorrow. West Virginia projects to finish as the 15th ranked team in the RPI at the end of the year (www.rpiforecast.com), so a win would put MU on track for the NCAA tournament, while a loss would project them to fall just short.

The good: MU passes the eyeball test with great showings on TV vs. Duke at Vandy (two teams projected to finish in the Top 10 in the RPI at the end of the year) and MU is one of the most exciting teams in the nation (15th in the nation in scoring, 7th in shooting, 12th in assists).

However, the Big East will be brutal as by far the No. 1 conference in the country based on RPI, and MU enters conference play without a quality win and projected to finish 9-9 with 4 quality wins (top 50 RPI) and one bad loss (not in top 100) and the 66th best RPI in the country.

Which players get MU to 10 wins & an NCAA invite?

That won’t be quite enough for MU to make their 6th straight tourney, so MU will have to improve slightly, either going 10-8 in conference play to up their projected RPI to 54, OR going 9-9 but winning at least one game in the Big East tournament.

In looking at where the two extra steals, rebounds or made shots a game could come from, I took each players stats from only the five tough games this year, and projected what each player would average per minute on the floor. If Buzz basically settles on having four of MUs best five players on the court at all time, here is what you get with 32 minutes played by each:

Vander Blue 3-9 (1-3 on treys), 2-2 FT, 9 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers, 2 steals
Jimmy Butler 5-11 (1-2 on treys) 3-5 FT, 14 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover, 1 steal
Dwight Buycks 4-8 (1-3 on treys) 0-1 FT, 9 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, 2 steals
Jae Crowder 4-8 (1-3 treys) 2-2 FT, 11 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover, 3 steals, 1 block
Darius Johnson-Odom 5-13 (2-6 treys) 4-5 FT, 16 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers, 0 steals

Because of the lack of rebounding from the centers, it seems to me Crowder must be on the court most of the time, as his 7 rebounds per 32 minutes against the good teams is almost twice what anyone else will produce, and like Lazar Hayward last year, he has an incredible 3 steals a game in the big games. He also is the 10th best player in the country at not turning the ball over, according to www.kenpom.com.

With Blue and Buycks playing great defense and both average 4 rebounds and 2 steals per 32 minutes in the tough games, if Blue just starts to get a couple of more jumpers to fall (like the trey that rattled out against Vandy) it could be the difference. After a poor start shooting, DJO has averaged 3 of 5 in treys the last two games, and if he does that or even 3 of 6, MU starts winning these close games.

Centers hitting 70%+ of shots in big games but not rebounding

The good news is that Marquette finally has scoring from the five spot inside, as Davante Gardner and Chris Otule have hit more than 70% of their shots IN THE FIVE BIG GAMES. If you give them both 16 minutes, that gives you a very efficient 14 points a game from the center position in 32 minutes. Gardner’s the better offensive player, with great hands and gets to the line, while Otule is the better defensive player with two blocked shots a game. The biggest problem for MU is that in those same 32 minutes the two centers only combine for 5 rebounds a game – another reason Crowder needs to be on the court to help. Giving them both 16 minutes, their stats project to:

Gardner 3-4 (no treys) 2-3 FT, 8 points, 3 rebounds, 1 turnover, 1 steal
Otule 3-3 (no free throws) 6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 turnover, 2 blocks
Total from all 7 above: 27-56 (6-17 treys) 13-18 FT, 73 points, 29 rebounds, 11 turnovers, 9 steals

That leaves 8 minutes for the incredible depth provided by Junior Cadougan (7 assists vs. Duke) at point guard, or one of three 6-foot-6 or 6-foot-7 players with nice shooting touch. The Centenary game showed potential for both young four stars in Jamail Jones (3 for 4 on treys for 11 points in 11 minutes) and Erik Williams (7 points and 10 rebounds in 23 minutes). Senior Joe Fulce missed the first four big games with his two knee injuries, but if recovered may be the best rebounding option with about 2 rebounds every 8 minutes.

Victory projections for season

Since MU has averaged giving up 73 points in the five tough games, just settling on this line-up gets MU even in the big games even if there is NO IMPROVEMENT. Inexperienced teams like MU typically improve more than experienced teams. However, assuming there is no improvement either through settling on a line-up or any players improving, here is a summary of what a combination of www.rpiforecast.com, Sagarin and www.kenpom.com project.

While Marquette’s current RPI of 150 looks terrible, the fact is that if they went just 6-12 in conference play, the RPI would go to about 106th. Here is the anticipated RPI depending on conference record:

7-11: RPI 92
8-10: RPI 77
9-9: RPI 66
10-8: RPI 54
11-7: RPI 44
12-6: RPI 36

Quality wins

Based on www.rpiforecast.com, MU has just missed quality wins against teams projected to finish No. 3 (Duke), No. 7 (Vanderbilt on the road), No. 28 (Wisconsin) and No. 64 (Gonzaga) in the final RPI.

MU is projected to win two games against eventual RPI Top 25 teams (some combination of WVU, at Pitt, at Lville, UConn, Syracuse, at Nova, at Gtown, UConn), and get two or three more against other top 50 teams (ND, at ND, St. John’s, with Cincy projected to finish No. 52 before winning tonight).

So a 9-9 record with four or five wins against RPI top 50 puts MU right on the bubble, and 10-8 with four or five Top 50 wins puts them in the tourney.

Keep in mind these projections anticipate MU goes 5-1 against non-top 50 teams. Both DePaul and Providence are coming to the Bradley Center, so even assuming MU takes care of business in those two games, they really can only afford to lose one of four at Rutgers (Wednesday), and South Florida, or during a home-and-home to Seton Hall at the end of the year after Jeremy Hazell has returned.

All four of those games are possible losses, and because of Hazell sitting out most of the season, any loss in those four games will likely show up as a “bad loss” (all three teams will likely NOT be in the top 100 in the final RPI).

In summary, the great news is that the Big East is so good that MU has plenty of opportunities to ring up resume building wins and make the tourney with 10 wins.

The bad news is that the Big East is so good that 16 of the 18 games will be very tough and if MU slides even slightly, it could have its first losing season since joining the Big East.

Tomorrow is huge.

Marquette kicks off the Big East season against West Virginia

Hey folks we have a Hangover Special to start Big East action for the Warriors .... a 10am CT tip-off against the West Virginia Mountaineers at the Bradley Center.

The game will be broadcast on ESPN2. West Virginia enters the game at 8-3 overall and 0-1 in the Big East. The Mountaineers were stunned in their home Big East opener by St John's, 81-71.

As usual Todd Rosiak's preview of the game is excellent -- I don't have anything to add.



And if the hangover is too much to deal with, sack up and go for the hair of the dog.

Belated Christmas greetings

Yes, yes I realize Christmas has come and gone but it's still the Christmas season with Ephiphany just one week away. With this in mind we'd like to welcome two guests to Cracked Sidewalks to spread a little bit of Christmas cheer, Warrior style.



Dean Meminger and Greg Johnson, thanks very much. As many of you know late last year Dean Meminger was critically injured in a house fire in New York City. It's great to see Dean doing so well -- and note that this video was shot at Bo Ellis' annual Warrior Day Golf Outing in July. Way to go, Dean!

Also, I'd like to thank our intrepid videographer for his fine work last summer. Thanks you sir!

Analyzing the Big East to date

With the Big East season kicking off on Saturday for MU it's worth taking stock of the nation's best conference to this point in the season. During the Christmas season both the East Coast Bias and Rush the Court completed 'State of the Big East' analyses. In case you missed those updates, check out these links.

Rush The Court slots MU in as the 9th place team in the Big East.

Pico Dulce at the East Coast Bias was the ringleader in an informative series based on contributions from the blogging community.

• Here's the bloggers' take on the performance of the teams they follow.
• Here's the blogger's take on the surprise team in the Big East.
• Here's the bloggers' take on the most disappointing team in the Big East.
• Here's the bloggers' take on the most disappointing and surprising player on their respective teams.
• Here's the bloggers' take on the final projected Big East standings.

As a reminder, the Warriors open up Big East play with a Hangover Special on New Year's Day against the West Virginia Mountaineers. If you're not familiar with Huggins' crew check out this Q/A from The Smoking Musket.

With the Big East conference season ready to kick-off in less than 48 hours -- MU great Roney Eford knows where to follow the action.

Commodores edge Warriors in Nashville

Another quality opponent, another soul-crushing loss.

Marquette continued its unenviable run of close losses to good teams tonight, falling 77-76 to 24th ranked Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Warriors battled to take a 76-75 lead on Dwight Buycks' jumper with 19 seconds left but surrendered a bucket to the Commodores with 4.1 seconds remaining to set up the final sequence. After an MU timeout Darius Johnson-Odom dribbled furiously up the floor, lost control and turned the ball over to end the game.

Surely Marquette leads the NCAA in last second shots not taken.

With the loss MU falls to 9-4 on the season and heads to Big East play with exactly zero quality out of conference wins. The Warriors host West Virginia on New Year's Day.

Marquette shot an impressive 56% from the floor tonight and held the notable Commodore marksmen to just 26% from deep and 48% overall. Yet MU was unable to create a turnover advantage, connected on only 7 of 13 free throws, and as has been the case all season the Warriors struggled to control the defensive glass in key spots.

MU was led by Jimmy Butler with 15 points. Darius Johnson-Odom added 14, Buycks had 14, Chris Otule had a dozen while Vander Blue finished with 10 points.

Todd Rosiak blogs a recap.
Box Score.

MU travels south to face great backcourt, one of tallest teams in country in Vandy

Southerners like me are thrilled to get to DRIVE to a game tomorrow as MU comes to Nashville – but what a tough matchup it is against one of the tallest teams and best backcourts in the country.

Prior to the season, Fox Sports picked both Vanderbilt and Marquette among the top 12 backcourts in the country, however the bigger matchup concern for MU tomorrow night will be keeping Vandy off the offensive glass.

Vanderbilt is also the 8th tallest team in the country and 6-foot-11 Festus Ezeili is the 11th best offensive rebounder in the country – grabbing an incredible 18.2% of all of Vanderbilt’s misses when he is on the court. MU hasn’t seen anyone that good yet, though unfortunately we will during trips to Pitt (Dante Taylor) and Georgetown (Julian Vaughn). MU is actually just slightly above average height this year after being one of the shortest teams in the country the past few years.

In previewing the 12 best backcourts, Fox Sports' Jeff Goodman wrote at the time, “There may be no better shooter in the nation than sophomore John Jenkins. Jeffery Taylor is one of the top wings in the nation, and Brad Tinsley should slide right in and fill the void left by the graduation of Jermaine Beal.”

Unfortunately, all three have lived up to their billing:

At 6-foot-4, Jenkins is hitting 87% of his free throws and 42% of his 3-pointers.

At 6-foot-7, Taylor is the go-to guy who draws a lot of fouls driving but also hits 39% of his treys to go along with 53% of his 2-point shots.

At 6-foot-3, Tinsley is one of the top assists men in the country.

They do not steal the ball, but are among the country’s best teams at blocking shots and killing opponent’s shooting (only 29% of treys and 41% of 2-point shots are made) – so the kind of patient defense that has given MU trouble in long stretches.
Vandy’s one weakness so far is that they do give up steals, which is where MU is so dangerous.

In short, it’s going to be a tough, tough road game to pull out.

MU facing 19 projected tourney teams

So far, MU is not projected to make the NCAA tournament, but starting with Vandy 12 of their next 16 opponents are projected in Lunardi’s latest picks.

If those projections hold, then MU will have played an incredible 19 games against NCAA tournament teams, a potential 20th in Cincinnati, and FIVE OPPONENTS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE A NO. 1 OR 2 SEED.

Similar to last year, MU has lost three games to tourney-projected teams, but all by 5 points or less. Now it’s time to start seeing if MU is on an incline up as the inexperienced team gels:

1. Can MU box out Ezeili unlike the disastrous 2nd halves that cost MU wins against Gonzaga and Wisconsin?
2. Is JUCO POY Jae Crowder going to stay on the court now that he is exploding from the arc and under the basket?
3. Can DJO shake off a slow start to look like the player projected to go in the NBA draft in this 2nd of 5 challenges this year against a top 12 backcourt?
4. Will the season’s sweetest surprise, big man Davante Gardner, finally be fully recovered from his early season shoulder injury and continue to pump in points in the paint?

I believe MU has established a very strong five starters in Vander Blue, Dwight Buycks, DJO, Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler, and two players 6-foot-8 or better that can split time very effectively with Chris Otule and Gardner both hitting more than two-thirds of their shots.

Jae Crowder is now ranked as the 14th best offensive player in any BCS conference by www.kenpom.com, and Gardner actually ranks slightly higher but doesn’t have enough minutes played to qualify.

And unlike in past years, everyone on the bench can contribute.

Pomeroy makes MU and 8-point underdog tomorrow night, but MU hasn’t lost by that many yet and if Buzz has settled the guys into a 7-man rotation for this killer stretch, tomorrow night could be a chance to pull the first real shocker of the MU season.

Grading MUs performance through one semester

Several MU players will be getting their first semester grades – so it’s a good time to grade the team on how prepared they are to face the rugged upcoming schedule.

While we can throw out five creampuff games so far, as well as tomorrow night’s game vs. Mississippi Valley State, the four other games played to date give a fair appraisal of the competition MU will face in the Big East. Duke, Wisconsin, Gonzaga and UWM have a combined rating of 83.67 in Sagarin, virtually the same as the 83.43 average rating in the Big East so far this year.

Therefore I took the Four Factors that determine games and broke them into 10 grades, BUT I graded MU based only on their performance in those four tough games.
Here are the grades in the tough games, the best indicator of what it will take for MU to do well once again in Big East play:

Offense

Protecting the ball: B+
On average, teams turn the ball over 21% of their trips down the court, which would have meant 14 turnovers a game in MUs four tough games. The fact is MU turned the ball over only 12 times in the tough games (17%) of trips. That’s worth 2 extra points a game against the likes of Duke, and MU actually takes care of the ball better in these tough games then in blowout wins when they give up some sloppy but meaningless turnovers (turned it over 19% of trips in all games). A very good indication that MU will be good at protecting the ball when the game is on the line.

3-point shooting: C-
MU was one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the country last year. MU is not nearly as good this season at 31% compared to the typical 34%. However, in the big games they’ve hit 32%, helping themselves against Wisconsin (4 of 9) and Milwaukee (8 of 19), while hurting themselves against Duke (4 of 20) and Gonzaga (6 of 21). The fact is 3-pointers are the most unpredictable part of the game, and while DJO can help if he finds his rhythm, there will be good and bad games.

2-point shooting: A
The biggest positive change over the past several years is that MU is now one of the best 2-point shooting teams in the country. Their 55.4% shooting is 7th best in the country, much better than the national average of 47.5%, but MU is even more impressive against tough teams. In the four tough games, MU has averaged 38 two-point and hit 20 (52%). Hitting over half their 2-pointers despite two of those four games being against the No. 1 defense in the country in Duke and a Wisconsin team that has allowed opponents to hit less than 40% of their 2-pointers is remarkable. The performance so far is unbelievably good and truly puts a high ceiling on what MU could do this year.

Getting to the line: C+
When a team gets to the free throw line they average 1.4 points a trip, when they don’t they average less than 1 point a trip. It is that important. MU is getting to the line at a higher than average rate (FTA/FGA = 43%, compared to the typical 38%). However, in the four tough games they have been slightly below average (34%), about what would be expected against tough teams but nothing exceptional, as they have averaged going 14 of 19 from the line.

Offensive Rebounding: D
A typical team grabs the offensive rebound about once every three times they miss a shot. At first glance, the fact that MU grabs 38% of their misses looks a little above the 33% average. However, MU has been very bad at grabbing offensive rebounds in the four tough games, averaging grabbing only 7 offensive rebounds out of 30 misses (24%). The low point was certainly UWM, when MU grabbed 2 offensive rebounds on 24 misses, but the other three tight games were also below average. This has to improve.

Defense

Forcing Turnovers: A-
MU has forced turnovers on 24% of opponents’ trips down the court, slightly above the 21% average. But what is even more impressive is it doesn’t matter who they are playing, because MU forced both Duke (19 turnovers) and Gonzaga (16 in a slower paced game) to turn it over 24% of the time. Wisconsin is the only team who has been able to take care of the ball against MU. In the four tough games MU has won the turnover battle an average of 15 to 12, a very impressive difference against very tough competition. What is even more helpful is that most of MUs forced turnovers are on actual steals giving them the chance for fast breaks, while very few of MUs offensive turnovers are on opponents’ steals.

3-point defense. C
I know everyone wants to give MU terrible marks in defending the three after watching inferior teams hit open treys. However, these baskets don’t mean much in blowouts. While MU gives up 38% on threes overall compared to a typical 34%, the fact is that MU toughens up against tougher opponents, allowing an average day of 7 of 18 (36%) in the tough games. MU has held Duke, Gonzaga and Wisconsin below their 3-point average. Basically MU's tough opponents have averaged 7 of 18 while MU has averaged 6 of 17 in those four tough games – so MU is only losing the 3-point exchange by one trey a game while trying fewer of them, really not much of a difference.

2-point defense: D
Outside of rebounding, MU's biggest problem in the tough games has been defending the 2-point shot. Overall, MU has allowed only 44% 2-point shooting (below the 47.5% typical average), BUT in the four tough games MU has allowed opponents to average a 23 of 42 shooting from inside the arc. So despite MU being one of the top 2-point shooting teams in the country, they are actually losing the 2-point exchange in the tough games.

Keeping opponents off the line: A+
The strongest part of MU’s game is not letting teams get to the line. MU only allows an average of 24% FTA/FGA (free throws attempted vs. field goals attempted), which is way below the 38% average. However, what is even more amazing is the MU is EVEN BETTER against the tough teams, as that figure dropped to 19% against Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and UWM. MU has won the free throw exchange by an amazing 7 points per game in the four big games, going 14 of 19 from the line on offense while only giving up 7 of 11 to those four opponents. And +7 at the line will win a lot of games.

Defensive Rebounding: F
Finally, we get to the huge deficiency that MU must correct to make the tournament. MU's four tough opponents have averaged missing 33 shots a game against MU, and 13 of those 33 times they have grabbed the offensive rebound (42%). Obviously this has contributed to the high 2-point shooting by opponents as well, as many are stickbacks. What is really amazing though is that MU's overall defensive rebounding has been above average in 6 of those 8 halves – it has just been unbelievably abysmal in the second halves against both Gonzaga (15 offensive rebounds allowed) and Wisconsin (12 offensive rebounds allowed). Hopefully this is just an example of an inexperienced team that has lost confidence twice when the snowball has started down the hill and will level out.

Based on www.kenpom.com, MU has lost by 5 points to both the #1 and #9 team in the country (Duke and Wisconsin), lost by 3 to the 54th best team (Gonzaga), and won by 3 at UWM.

Some will protest that I include the UWM game, but that game needs to be included for several reasons:

1. UWM was by far the 4th toughest test MU faced and by adding them the overall average of the four teams is just above the average competition faced in the Big East according to Sagarin’s ratings,

2. As I’ve noted repeatedly, no Big 10 or Big East team has gone into a Horizon gym and won by more than 4 points in the last three years so playing at UWM was not like facing 5 creampuffs at home, and

3. According to the Sagarin ratings, a game AT UWM is exactly as tough as if MU had played the #74 team in the country (Nebraska) at the Bradley Center.

Certainly an inexperienced MU team may need to make a few adjustments to change close loses into close wins. Perhaps a little more physical play underneath would give up a few more foul shots but also stop allowing as many offensive rebounds and lay-ups.

But MUs ability to stand toe-to-toe with tough teams and so clearly win the turnover and free throw exchange is one more indication that there is a very high ceiling on this team.

The Gentlemen come to town

After a week away from competitive action the Marquette Warriors (7-3) host the Centenary Gentlemen (0-11) this afternoon at the Bradley Center. The disappointing home loss to Bucky has been lingering for a week and the over-matched Gents will provide little resistance this afternoon. Centenary stinks.

Heading into the eleventh game of the season it's time to start The DJO Watch in earnest. The junior guard, widely expected to emerge as one of the Big East's top guards, has regressed this season hitting on just 38% of his shots from the field and an abominable 27% from three-point range. If not for one scintillating performance against UWM (29 points on 10-14 shooting, 5-7 from deep) those figures would be far worse and perhaps more representative of just how much he's struggled so far this season.

As a sophomore the Raleigh native connected on 45% of his field goals and 47% of his three-point attempts. Johnson-Odom is coming off his worst game of the season, hitting just one of his nine attempts in the home loss to Wisconsin. While a strong performance against Centenary won't be enough to signal a turnaround, coach Buzz Williams needs the talented guard to raise his level of play quickly.

Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on Sports32.

• Here are the Marquette Game Notes
• Beat reporter Todd Rosiak completed a Q/A with readers yesterday -- must. read.
• Vander Blue was the Big East Rookie of the Week last week.
• Marquette is adding lacrosse.
• The Big East/SEC Challenge will be revamped for next season --- and MU still gets that game with LSU.

If you have 30 minutes, enjoy the final episode of Marquette Basketball - Revealed.

Marquette Basketball Weekly: The Father Wild Edition

Outgoing Marquette University President Rev. Robert Wild sits down with Brad Galli to talk decades of Marquette basketball: the players who became legends, the men who coached them, and the moment he calls the greatest of his 15-year presidency. Wild shares what went in to hiring Buzz Williams and why he calls the current coach “amazing.” Also, Derek Hudgin talks with Williams, Jae Crowder, Dwight Buycks, and Rob Frozena about giving back during the holiday season.

Badgers' toughness is too much for Warriors

MUTV Sports' Brad Galli reports from the Bradley Center after MU failed to grab a signature out of conference win against the visiting Badgers.




Todd Rosiak on how the Badgers were too tall and too tough for MU.

Warriors seek Badger road kill

The Marquette Warriors and the University of Wisconsin-Madison Badgers renew hostilities on Saturday afternoon at the Bradley Center with plenty at stake for the good guys. The Warriors enter the game with a record of 7-2, beating every team you'd expect and nothing more. As Carl Spackler said, I guess the kidding around is pretty much over. It's time for the Warriors to step up, claim a solid out-of-conference win, and rid the State of the rabid menace to the West once again.

We expect a tight game on Saturday. In many aspects both Marquette and Wisconsin-Madison (not Wisconsin-Green Bay or Wisconsin-Milwaukee) will compete on matching strengths or weaknesses:

• Bo Ryan's squad is very good at defending inside the three-point line, while Marquette is very efficient offensively in that range. Strength vs. Strength.
• Bucky is so-so from beyond the arc and MU defends those shots poorly. Weakness vs. Weakness.
• Wisconsin-Madison is fifth-best team in the nation at protecting the ball. Marquette turns teams over at a rate higher than the national average. Strength vs. Strength.
• Bucky is great on the glass both offensively (#20) and defensively (#26). This is where Wisconsin-Madison has a definitive strength relative to Marquette.
• Wisconsin-Madison's offense is not great. But neither is MU's defense.
  
• Bucky rarely gets to the line. Marquette rarely fouls. These tendencies cancel out.

So what does this all mean? More than likely the game hinges on two primary factors - rebounding and turnovers. For the Warriors to make road kill of the Badgers they can't be soft on the backboards as they were against Gonzaga and they must turn the Badgers over at a fairly high rate, winning the turnover battle convincingly.

In the Badgers' two losses they were exposed in different ways. Against UNLV, where the Badgers fell 68-85, Wisconsin-Madison coughed up the ball too much (15 times) and allowed UNLV shoot nearly 50% from the field. In the loss to Notre Dame, Bucky protected the ball well (only four turnovers!) but was blitzed on the glass by the Irish (40-28 overall and 12-6 on the offensive boards) falling 58-51.

The good news for MU is that they forced Duke and Gonzaga into a lot of turnovers. With a bit better result on the glass against the Zags, MU would have pulled that game out. The same formula applies on Saturday -- turn'em over, hold your own on the glass, and take then make the first best available shot on offense. For the sake of argument I'll presume that MU's defense will be solid in front of a marvelous home crowd on Saturday.

Saturday's game is a Gold Out in the Bradley Center. Gold! Tipoff is scheduled for 1:30pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Alumni -- please remember to stop by the pre-game reception sponsored by Marquette University on Saturday starting at 11am at the Pabst Brewery. Find details here.

And sure, while this post is (for the most part) entirely rational our blogging brethren at the Anonymous Eagle have been filling the void with well-deserved Badger Hate all week. I highly recommend you check out each offering from those guys.

Anonymous Eagle Badger Hate Week

• Friday Badger Hate
• Thursday Badger Hate
• Wednesday Badger Hate

Todd Rosiak updates

• Buzz says all the right things about the varmints descending on the fine City of Milwaukee.
• The Warriors have on love for the Badgers.
• Fulce is out for at least three games and is a redshirt possibility.

Additional updates

• Register for the Marquette pre-game reception.
• New York City alums are gathering for the Badger slaughter at the Village Pourhouse 366 W 46th Street in Manhattan.
• MUScoop delves into Badger humor.

That's right .... Gold out!

Double Switchables

We're pleased to welcome another guest post from Dr. Blackheart. You may recall that Dr. Blackheart contributed two guest posts in September. His first post looked at offensive efficiency and turnovers. The second one predicted low three percent percentages and guessed at the starting lineup. Today's post looks more at the early season trends and gazes into the crystal ball for the rest of the season.

====
The 2009-10 season saw a short (depth and height) but experienced MU team focus on offensive efficiency, achieved by not turning the ball over while slowing the tempo to work the offense for the best available three ball. The team was coached magnificently to do what it could do well—and was successful at it like no other team in MU’s history.

Turning the page over to the 2010-11 season, the roster is now comprised of three new starters and seven non-battle hardened neophytes to Buzz Ball. MU is still a relatively efficient team (31st offensively and 40th defensively in Pomeroy), as is the Buzz trademark. However, with all the new faces and the rotating line-ups, fans are left to wonder what this team does well—what is its identity—as it doesn’t appear MU is exceptional at anything at first blush?

Distribution Center(s)
With a point guard by committee, MU is a surprising 10th nationally in assists per game with 18.1 helping hands. Dwight Buycks (4.2/game) and Junior Cadougan (3.6/game) lead the way in government assistance. Who is on the receiving end? Well, surprise, surprise…The Buzz Brand of Aircraft Carriers.

MU’s points in the paint are up a whopping 32% year to year after the first eight games. Combined, the Double O’s (Otule and Ox) are shooting 70% from the field, with all the frontline players averaging 61% from inside the arc. In fact, MU is 13th nationally in Two Point FG Shooting Percentage (56.4%). Not since the Kevin O’Neill or Al McGuire years has a MU team made such a concerted effort to feed the low post like this year’s—albeit it an abbreviated effort as Otule and Gardner have averaged just 24 minutes per game combined. More so, their presence has opened up near-in space for the other position players to attack the rim. But, what a 180 from last season’s low turnover, high trey shooting percent team, though.

This Big Man focus also manifests itself on defense. While MU led the Big East in protecting the perimeter last season, MU’s has chosen to protect the paint this season as we were last in the BE in rebounding in 2009-10. As a result, opponents are hitting treys at a much higher clip, but our two point defense (43.3%) has improved to 68th in the nation from 263rd, while our offensive rebounding rate (36.4%) has improved to 74th in the nation from 238th. And, MU is fouling at a much lower rate. In fact, MU is 3rd in the nation in opponents’ free throw rate.

Is Last Season Just Distant a Memory?

Are low turnover rates with high three point shooting percents not possible with this crew? No, not necessarily. Coming into this season, of the top offensive efficiency games in the past 15 years, 72% of them came after first semester final exams. Last night against Corpus Christi, we saw the 18th most offensive efficient game in 15 years. Up till this point in the season, the guards have been focused on attacking the rim and not really on spacing and flow. Similarly, finding rebounding lanes had not been a particular strength of this team—one Buzz took the pre-Longwood week to concentrate practice on. Now, will MU settle into a regular rotation? Will the incredibly efficient Joe Fulce return healthy? Will flow improvements lead to lower turnovers and better spacing for spot up threes on a consistent basis? Will MU slowly extend its perimeter defense once the interior fortification gets settled? These will be the questions that will start to be answered against the tougher Badgers as MU’s “identity is revealed”.

Marquette sinks the Islanders

Marquette rolled to an 86-50 victory over Texas A&M Corpus Christi behind a career-high 21 points from freshman Vander Blue. A second half knee injury to senior forward Joseph Fulce - which appears to be serious - deflated the Warriors' spirit after the game however. With the win MU improves to 7-2 on the season.





MU victory tainted by Fulce injury, per Rosiak.
Rosiak blogs a recap.
Official MU recap.

One night engagement: The LeDaryl Billingsley Festival

Tonight Marquette (6-2) hosts its second buy game in as many outings when it welcomes Texas A&M Corpus Christi to the Bradley Center.

Texas A&M CC is coached by former Tulane head coach Perry Clark. If you are looking for a reason to have a bit more interest in tonight's game, that's the hook: Perry Clark is the man who delivered what became a crucial blow to the Mike Deane era at MU. How so, you ask? Clark wooed Chicago's LeDaryl Billingsley to Tulane after the power forward had verbally committed to MU. Billingsley went on to average 11 points and six rebounds per game during his career at Tulane, which spanned the 1997-98 season through the 2000-2001 campaign. As as a senior he averaged 18 points and 9 boards per game and was a second team All-Conference USA selection.

Had Billingsley signed with MU he would have joined Brian Wardle, DeMarcus Minor, Greg Clausen and John Mueller as freshmen. With Cordell Henry arriving on campus the following year, Mike Deane was thisclose to having what might have been one of the best young groups in Conference USA. In the end Billingsley decided against MU, DeMarcus Minor left for a productive career at Baylor (don't forget about the loss of Alton Mason as well) and Mike Deane's fate was sealed.

Perry Clark -- Marquette hero or villain?

Enjoy the game. Gametime is 8pm CT, broadcast on Sports32, DirecTV 639, 540 ESPN, or you can follow along with the Game Tracker.

===

Recaps and memories associated with coach Raymonds. Enjoy

• Rosiak's story is story is PHENOMENAL. There's a photo gallery, a letter Raymonds sent to former players, and four videos. Frankly, the Journal-Sentinel did a great job with their coverage.
• Michael Hunt says Raymonds was a great coach and greater human being.
• The JS Editorial calls Raymonds a Marquette Legend.
• George Thompson on Raymonds
• Jim Boylan on Raymonds
• Rick Majerus on Raymonds
• Doc Rivers on Raymonds
• Other reaction to Raymonds' passing, including Cords, Wade, Crean, Buzz, Bo Ellis, and Father Wild. All those links above are from the JS. Kudos to the Journal-Sentinel.
• The MUAD has their own coverage, including their own set of videos. You can also submit condolences/thoughts to Raymonds' family.
  

Coach Hank Raymonds passes away

One of the finest human beings I ever met. Rest in Peace Coach!

Who needs 3 big men? Otule hits 9 straight en route to 96-65 win

Joe Fulce and Davante Gardner returned Saturday to get MU back to full strength with all three of their big men in action.

For one of the few times, MU did not need all three as they watched Chris Otule go 9 for 9 from the floor to lead the route, the second best shooting performance in MU history behind Wesley Matthew’s 10-10 against Rutgers.

No team surprises
At the team level, there were no surprises Saturday. Longwood provided a very exciting opponent, but with no ability to stop MU from getting to the hoop.

With 10 minutes to play in the game MU was hitting 72% of their two-point attempts (28 of 39) and was grabbing 44% (8 of 18) of their misses. Put it together and when MU put up a 2-pointer they were getting either the basket or the offensive rebound 84% of the time.

Joe Fulce did have a couple of big slams in his first game back, but Davante Gardner was able to rest on the bench and watch the up and down game.

Buzz trumped all of Longwood’s speed by starting lightning fast Reggie Smith, who closed the game with a nice pass to Robert Frozena to get him on the board for the year.

Longwood came in averaging 75 trips down the court a game, and didn’t disappoint Saturday night forcing more than 40 trips in both halves for an unbelievable pace.
But even Longwood tried out a 2-3 zone on MU, as teams conclude MU is just too athletic and tough to guard man to man.

Marquette had five double digit scorers with Otule 19, DJO 14, Vander Blue 12, Jae Crowder 10 and Dwight Buycks 10.

Marquette could score 100; might need to Saturday

The Longwood Lancers average scoring 5 points a game more than Marquette (84-79) because they get the ball down the court and shoot quickly and shoot well. Thank goodness Marquette has added depth, because they run a lot of players at you with seven players scoring between 9 and 15 points per game.

Expect them to try a furious pace after the 1 p.m. CST tipoff Saturday.

Like the MU teams of the last few years, the Lancers generally have one 6-foot-6 player in the middle surrounded by a bunch of guys 6-2 and under.

They either go quickly into 6-foot-6 Antwan Carter (15 ppg, 10.9 rpg on 60% shooting from the floor), or gun it up. Four players are averaging more than 5 trey attempts a game, including small guards Aaron Mitchell (15 ppg), Durrann Neil (9.1) and Martiz Washington (21 of 53 treys), as well as 6-foot-7 Jan Vander Kooij from the Netherlands.

The only guard who prefers the two is Jeremiah Bowman, who will compete with Jae Crowder for best hair. Bowman is averaging 11.6 ppg on 33 of 60 shooting from the floor, and has hit 6 of 9 treys.

Overall, they are one of the top 3-point shooting teams (39%) in and are coming to Milwaukee after drawing a record crowd and leading a pretty good James Madison team into the 2nd half.

For the 3rd year in a row, Longwood is averaging about 75 trips a game down the court – making them one of the fast 10 teams in the country all three years.

Reality

As exciting as all that sounds - the fact is the Lancers have only beaten one Division 1 team this year.

While the Lancers get the ball down the court very quickly and put shots up quickly and on the mark, they really should not be a match for Marquette.

Marquette should be able to go to the hoop at will and either get fouled or make their shots (59% allowed on 2-pointers). In their last game, James Madison’s big man went 10 for 10 from the field.

Longwood also rarely steals the ball, apparently content to let opponents get off a shot so they can throw it down to the other end and put up a quick three to win the exchange 3-2.

Longwood – from Farmville VA – will make MU continue to work on their shaky 3-point defense. In their opener, the Kansas Jayhawks held them to 3 of 14 from beyond the arc in the first half, but since then Longwood has been over 40% on treys including an 8 for 16, 48 points second half against the Jayhawks.

Their exciting style of play resulted in a record turnout of 1,973 fans – ok it’s not the Bradley Center – in their last game against the James Madison Dukes.

I hate to set the bar this high, but as well as MU gets to the basket this year they really could put up 100+ points unless Buzz feels he really needs to slow the pace down to get the Lancers out of their game.

Might be a good game to boost those point per game totals, get in great shape, and learn how to get to every spot on the arc on defense.