MU 192nd Best Team in US Without Fischer; Fischer Deserves All-Big East

Luke Fischer elevates Marquette from being the 192nd best team in basketball to being the 96th best team according to the Value Add team rankings.

Nat'l	Big East	Off	Def	Value Add
1	Villanova	33.41	-13	46.41
20	Xavier	30.81	-9.59	40.4
32	Creighton	29.71	-5.21	34.92
34	Butler	34.11	-0.34	34.45
45	Seton Hall	25.49	-7.2	32.69
50	Providence	22.49	-9.41	31.9
52	Georgetown	26.7	-5.1	31.8
96	Marquette	20	-6.79	26.79
192	MU w/o Fischer	12.57	-5.96	18.53
153	DePaul	20.71	-1.21	21.92
282	St. John's	7.79	-1.15	8.94

MU's Offensive Efficiency Rating of 101.0 points per 100 trips at www.kenpom.com would be 93.57 if Fischer were not on the team - meaning MU would nudge out Alabama State (who beat Buzz) as the 325th best offense in the country without Fischer's 7.43 Offensive Value Add.

I focus on this not to state the obvious that the very inexperienced team is struggling - but rather to point out that if we are going to base All-Big East voting on how much each player improves his team - his Value Add in my terms - then Fischer should be the All-Big East center.

I feel like I am flashing back to trying to convince people early in Jae Crowder's senior season that he was BY FAR Marquette's best player, only to have people push back. Fischer is not Crowder, BUT he is the second Value Add Top 100 player we have had since Crowder. The one thing I always beg readers is to look at the mistakes - missed shots and turnovers - as much as you look at the positive items, and in the last four games Fischer has been astoundingly good on both fronts.

Value Add	Last 4 Games	Made Shots	Missed Shots	Assists	Turnovers
91	Fischer, Luke	18	7	7	4
328	Ellenson, Henry	23	24	6	13

We do not focus on assists to turnovers for big men as we do for guards, but the number of times a big man can kick the ball back out for a three-pointer versus being stripped once catching the ball is huge. Fischer is almost 2-to-1 at 7-to-4, while we see how the great Ellenson is the reverse during those four games with six assists and 13 turnovers. This is just freshman stuff - it will all be cured so that he can maximize his incredible talent, but right now he is a freshman.

Ellenson's shooting has improved during the four games - during which time his eFG% is over 50% even while his overall FG% is slightly under by one shot. However, can we focus on the fact that Fischer has missed SEVEN shots in four games. He is shooting 72% against four Big East teams - unbelievable.

Fischer is in the Top 100 - worth 6.39 points to Marquette's victory margin - and he is now the sixth most valuable player in the Big East and passed Daniel Ochefu as the top center in the conference. He deserves All-Big East recognition, but that is really hard to get when you have a more talented teammate like Ellenson and a slumping team that is struggling to stay in the Top 100 of 351 teams while you are staying in the top 100 of 4000+ players.

Ellenson currently ranks as the top freshman in the conference at 328th overall. He would lead the All-Freshman Big East team comprised of Villanovas Mikal Bridges (330th) and Jalen Brunson (437th), Creighton's Khyri Thomas (539th) and 6-foot-11 Yankuba Sima (583rd), who will not be on the court tonight for St. John's due to a fractured hand.

Nat'l	Big East Top 5; MU	Team	Class	Off	Def	Value Add	NBA%
21	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	3 Jr	7.83	-2.97	8.13	26%
46	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	2 So	7.53	-2.19	7.39
50	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	4 Sr	8.09	-1.21	7.33
55	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	3 Jr	5.01	-4.02	7.14	95%
68	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	4 Sr	6.79	-1.69	6.74
91	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	3 Jr	7.43	-0.83	6.39
328	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	1 Fr	3.02	-2.51	4.5	92%
541	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	2 So	3.35	-0.85	3.59
647	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	2 So	2.91	-0.57	3.18
964	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	3 Jr	1.38	-0.91	2.28
1096	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	1 Fr	1.43	-0.36	1.98
1357	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	1 Fr	0	-1.1	1.48
1524	Ellenson, Wally 22	Marquette	3 Jr	0.37	-0.41	1.23
1907	Anim, Sacar 2	Marquette	1 Fr	0.11	0.39	0.74
2021	Heldt, Matt 12	Marquette	1 Fr	0	0.36	0.7

We weren't expecting wins, but that doesn't mean we can't be disappointed

The end results of the two games against Top 10 teams were what we expected, but the means by which the results were delivered is an interesting discussion. In this weeks, podcast we break down the Villanova and Xavier games to see where this team is at and what (both positive and negative) can be learned. We spend time discussing defensive strategies and poor shooting as well if Henry's defense is a major issue.We also go on a little rant about student participation and fan support in general in this weeks edition of "crotchety old men". We then look forward to the next two weeks of supposed "get better" games as we play the two worst teams in conference and a non-con game against a cowboy hat. Download this episode (right click and save)

Fischer, Ellenson microcosm of many teams

Fischer and Ellenson are a microcosm of 13 years in the Value Add database - good juniors and seniors are much more valuable to their teams right now than the freshman superstars who will go onto be the NBA stars. Here are the current ratings, and you can get more detail and all 4000+ players at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Keep in mind Dunn would be way ahead of Hart and near Ben Simmons top in the country except for the missed games. In fact, seven of the top eight in the conference are juniors or seniors.

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	Total Value
1	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	6' 5"	Jr	7.84	-2.80	11.19
2	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	6' 4"	Jr	5.54	-4.26	10.73
3	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	6' 9"	So	7.46	-2.11	10.15
4	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	6' 3"	Sr	8.20	-0.91	10.03
5	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	6' 3"	Sr	6.83	-1.85	9.59
6	Ochefu, Daniel 23	Villanova	6' 11"	Sr	4.84	-3.51	8.96
7	Jones, Roosevelt 21	Butler	6' 4"	Sr	6.63	-1.31	8.85
8	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	6' 11"	Jr	6.84	-0.82	7.48
9	Bluiett, Trevon 5	Xavier	6' 6"	So	5.60	-1.93	7.35
10	Farr, James 2	Xavier	6' 10"	Sr	4.49	-3.00	7.32
11	Garrett, Billy 5	DePaul	6' 6"	Jr	7.27	0.09	7.28
12	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	6' 6"	So	5.51	-1.78	7.12
13	Henry, Myke 4	DePaul	6' 6"	Sr	5.97	-1.22	7.02
14	Davis, Myles 15	Xavier	6' 2"	Jr	6.03	-0.65	6.77
15	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	Creighton	7' 0	Sr	5.58	-1.30	6.73
16	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	Butler	6' 7"	Jr	6.36	-0.21	6.42
17	Zierden, Isaiah 21	Creighton	6' 3"	Jr	5.16	-0.93	6.17
18	Carrington, Khadeen 0	Seton Hall	6' 3"	So	4.83	-1.24	6.15
19	Wideman, Tyler 4	Butler	6' 8"	So	4.62	-1.32	5.80
20	Bullock, Rodney 5	Providence	6' 8"	So	3.65	-2.26	5.77
21	Reynolds, Jalen 1	Xavier	6' 10"	Jr	2.77	-2.66	5.30
22	Watson, Maurice 10	Creighton	5' 10"	Jr	4.83	-0.37	5.27
23	Macura, JP 55	Xavier	6' 5"	So	4.97	-0.40	5.25
24	Bridges, Mikal 25	Villanova	6' 7"	Fr	3.39	-1.97	5.24
25	Jenkins, Kris 2	Villanova	6' 6"	Jr	4.24	-1.06	5.17
26	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	6' 11"	Fr	2.99	-2.29	5.16
31	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	6' 6"	So	3.63	-0.84	4.37
41	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	6' 2"	So	2.91	-0.53	3.48
52	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	6' 5"	Fr	2.26	-0.11	2.40
61	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	6' 5"	Jr	1.05	-0.76	1.77
71	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	6' 0	Fr	0.00	-0.96	0.97
75	Ellenson, Wally 22	Marquette	6' 6"	Jr	0.28	-0.38	0.65
96	Anim, Sacar 2	Marquette	6' 5"	Fr	0.03	0.34	0.02
98	Heldt, Matt 12	Marquette	6' 10"	Fr	0.00	0.34	0.00

'Embarrassing' for ESPN: More Watch Basketball Title Than Football Championship

Paint Touches and others note low ratings for Fox Sports Big East telecasts last year. However, I point out in this piece that with at least $6 billion a year committed to various leagues long-term, ESPN cannot afford to have their football championship draw less than the NCAA title game, or the Rose Bowl draw millions of viewers less than the average March Madness game telecast. Maybe it wasn't all about football, and the Big East ended up in the best spot possible after all.

In an almost unheard of turn of events, more Americans watched the college basketball national title game than the college football national championship, as the ratings disaster continued for ESPN.

The New York Times reported the 23 percent drop to 25.7 million viewers and the fact that millions fewer viewed the football national championship than the NCAA tournament final. The Big Lead called it “embarrassing.”

CBS Sports’ basketball title game between Wisconsin and Duke peaked at 33.4 million, and averaged 28.3. The NCAA boasted that the average viewership of the 65 games over three weeks on CBS, TNT, TBS and TruTV drew 11.3 million—more than three million more than ESPN’s one-and-only Rose Bowl.

Click here to read rest of story.

Riding the roller coaster to start the Big East

Well the Big East has been a headscratcher and we're only 2/9ths of the way through. Life got in the way of podcasting but we're back at it and no better than we've ever been. We talk about all four conference games, what they mean, why they went the way they went, and what conclusions we can draw. This leads to a debate about player performance and what player we trust the most on this Marquette team. We then transition to Henry Ellenson: Overrated, Underrated or properly rated. After that lively debate it's time to talk the very difficult week ahead for Marquette basketball with a road trip to conference leader Villanova and home game against Xavier on the docket. Finally we wrap up with a little light recruiting news. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Only 3 BE Players Possess Ball More than Ellenson; Only 2 Have Higher Possessions AND Offensive Rating than Fischer

Only two Big East Players - Josh Hart and Ryan Arcidiacono of Villanova - have both a higher Offensive Rating and more possessions than Luke Fischer.

Basketball on Paper ran groundbreaking studies showing how much players' Offensive Ratings dropped the more they possessed the ball. Theoretically someone who only shot if they were left alone for a wide open dunk and did not miss would be averaging 200 points per 100 trips.

The more a player must take on - double teams and tougher shots - the more his Offensive Rating drops (Jerry Stackhouse and Allen Iverson were the first studied).

That is the backdrop for Henry Ellenson being one of only four Big East players handling more than 20% of his team's total possessions (www.kenpom.com Min% x Poss%). To that end his 100.1 Offensive Rating is not even average (102.7), but Value Add calculates that the players that must take the brunt of the opponent's defense are adding value, and thus his 5.48 overall value ranks him a strong but not elite 477th of 4000+ players.

Amazingly, two of the other four players are both with Providence - Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil - and those two have extremely high offensive ratings.

The following is a list of all Big East players handling at least 10% of his team's possessions, with Marquette players in gold.

Rnk	Player	Team	Poss/Gm	ORtg	Offense	Defense	Total
875	Whitehead, Isaiah 15	Seton Hall	22.5%	97.4	2.87	-0.80	3.63
31	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	22.1%	110.0	5.97	-4.06	10.73
34	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	21.9%	116.3	7.97	-1.70	10.66
477	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	20.9%	100.1	2.99	-2.38	5.48
172	Jones, Roosevelt 21	Butler	19.6%	117.5	6.39	-1.22	7.53
150	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	19.6%	112.5	6.84	-1.07	7.83
436	Watson, Maurice 10	Creighton	19.1%	114.4	5.66	-0.11	5.71
179	Garrett, Billy 5	DePaul	18.7%	114.4	7.63	0.08	7.47
9998	Mussini, Federico 4	St. John's	18.0%	90.4	0.06	-0.01	0.08
387	Carrington, Khadeen 0	Seton Hall	17.6%	105.3	4.73	-1.28	5.95
236	Bluiett, Trevon 5	Xavier	17.1%	111.5	4.99	-1.82	6.95
300	Bullock, Rodney 5	Providence	17.1%	108.6	4.26	-2.03	6.42
258	Henry, Myke 4	DePaul	16.5%	110.2	5.58	-1.11	6.82
713	Dunham, Kellen 24	Butler	16.5%	115.3	4.92	0.75	4.25
14	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	16.4%	126.1	8.03	-2.76	11.80
994	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	15.7%	101.8	2.71	-0.56	3.23
1039	Johnson, Durand 5	St. John's	15.4%	96.7	2.21	-0.83	3.10
754	Copeland, Isaac 11	Georgetown	15.3%	104.9	3.40	-0.65	4.13
104	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	15.3%	125.0	7.23	-1.31	8.46
549	Martin, Kelan 30	Butler	15.2%	114.5	4.39	-0.59	5.08
137	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	14.9%	118.5	6.92	-0.90	7.98
552	Brunson, Jalen 1	Villanova	14.6%	113.5	4.63	-0.49	5.06
195	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	13.9%	112.0	5.41	-1.81	7.36
57	Ochefu, Daniel 23	Villanova	13.4%	121.0	5.61	-3.35	9.94
1265	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	13.1%	101.7	2.25	-0.19	2.41
635	Delgado, Angel 31	Seton Hall	13.1%	101.3	2.58	-1.96	4.64
1598	Gordon, Derrick 32	Seton Hall	12.9%	93.7	0.80	-0.85	1.63
362	Davis, Myles 15	Xavier	12.8%	122.6	5.64	-0.51	6.09
220	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	Butler	12.7%	134.1	6.73	-0.24	7.11
956	Peak, LJ 0	Georgetown	12.7%	105.9	3.04	-0.23	3.34
924	Sumner, Edmond 4	Xavier	12.7%	106.2	2.79	-0.69	3.45
738	Hayes, Bradley 42	Georgetown	12.6%	102.6	2.32	-1.78	4.18
2386	Cain, Eli 11	DePaul	12.4%	87.8	0.00	-0.41	0.42
419	Reynolds, Jalen 1	Xavier	12.4%	108.4	3.08	-2.61	5.80
391	Zierden, Isaiah 21	Creighton	12.2%	124.8	5.28	-0.72	5.94
517	Jenkins, Kris 2	Villanova	12.2%	114.9	4.10	-1.00	5.21
2364	Jones, Christian 2	St. John's	12.2%	85.1	0.00	-0.43	0.44
1117	Hamilton, Tommy 2	DePaul	12.1%	98.5	1.71	-1.07	2.83
1502	Mvouika, Ron 24	St. John's	12.0%	98.0	2.07	0.27	1.84
1186	Huff, Cole 13	Creighton	11.7%	105.5	2.11	-0.49	2.65
188	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	Creighton	11.5%	132.8	6.19	-1.08	7.42
1125	Booth, Phil 5	Villanova	11.4%	104.9	2.28	-0.56	2.81
134	Farr, James 2	Xavier	11.4%	120.9	4.78	-3.09	8.02
634	Sima, Yankuba 35	St. John's	11.3%	101.1	2.71	-1.85	4.65
814	Lewis, Tyler 1	Butler	10.7%	124.8	4.45	0.57	3.85
1992	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	10.7%	88.6	0.00	-0.90	0.89
628	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	10.7%	111.8	3.73	-0.87	4.68
1085	Derrickson, Marcus 24	Georgetown	10.2%	105.4	2.35	-0.51	2.92
844	Simpson, Aaron 15	DePaul	10.0%	111.7	3.62	-0.19	3.76

We also took the 8-person rotation from all 351 teams in order of possessions, and tallied the average Offensive Rating and Value Add for each of the 8-spots.

Rotation	Top 8 Poss/Gm	Off Rat	Off VA	Def VA	Value Add
1	22.6%	105.2	4.77	-0.62	5.42
2	17.9%	104.7	3.69	-0.65	4.42
3	15.0%	105.0	3.18	-0.50	3.77
4	12.6%	102.9	2.40	-0.28	2.78
5	10.6%	102.1	1.91	-0.18	2.21
6	8.8%	98.3	1.30	-0.08	1.54
7	7.1%	97.4	0.98	0.04	1.14
8	5.5%	95.1	0.70	0.21	0.78
R9-13	(4 players total)	86.4	1.06	2.07	0.00
Total	100.0%	102.7	20.00	0.00	22.06

Will Marquette or Kentucky Make the Title Game? They are the only 2 teams matching 4 title game teams in the past 5 years

Four of the past five NCAA Championship games featured a roster averaging less than one year experience AND a top 10 NBA Pick. It is a rare combination, with only 15 rosters in all of D1 averaging less than one year of experience and only two of those teams ALSO featuring a projected top 10 pick at NBA Draft Express.

Marquette and projected No. 7 pick Henry Ellenson pulled off an almost unheard of road win against a Top 10 team Tuesday night. Meanwhile, an LSU team that Marquette already defeated blew out the other team to meet both criteria - Kentucky and projected No. 4 pick Skal Labissiere. Here are the other four teams to accomplish the feat in the past five seasons.

less than 1 yr experience, seed	Season	NCAA Wins	Yrs	Experience	Top 10 NBA Pick
Marquette ?	2016	?	0.86	344	Henry Ellenson 7 proj
Kentucky ?	2016	?	0.95	341	Skal Labissiere 4 proj
Kentucky 8	2014	Runner-up	0.31	351	Julius Randle 7
Michigan 4	2013	Runner-up	0.73	342	Trey Burke 9
Kentucky 1	2012	Champion	0.77	340	Anthony Davis 1
Connecticut 3	2011	Champion	0.94	332	Kemba Walker 9

For one night at least the talent and ceiling was evident - even if the odds of making the tournament are still low. The 15% chance Marquette was given of winning at Providence (www.kenpom.com) let fans see a team with enough talent to possibly go into the Big East tournament and win three in a row - a much easier feat than when UConn started at 49th at www.kenpom.com, lost at home to Jimmy Butler and Marquette late in the season, and then had to win SIX straight games to win the Big East title.

That team had 0.94 years of experience yet the freshmen were turning into sophomores by the end of the year and became one of only four 3-seeds to win the title in the last 28 years. Kentucky was expected to win the title in 2012 with only 0.77 years of experience. However, Trey Burke led one of the youngest teams in the land in Michigan to the title despite them only being a 4-seed, and then an 8th seeded Kentucky (0.31 years experience is the second youngest team since www.kenpom.com started tracking in 2007) went to the title game in 2014.

Ellenson is an inconsistent freshman to date, but he has also shown he can take over and dominate in many ways. If Marquette's freshmen gain confidence and experience and can just find a way to sneak into the tournament they have that rare combination.

The fantastic 65-64 win at Providence - a team with upset wins at Rhode Island and Butler, and neutral court wins over Evansville and Arizona before battling Michigan State even until the final few minutes - shows on a given night the team can beat anyone. MU has now beaten two of the leading candidates for National Player of the Year in Ben Simmons (LSU) and Kris Dunn.

In looking at all teams that have made the NCAA tournament despite having a roster averaging less than one year experience - the overall tournament record is 45-23, better than expected based on seeding. Having the consistency to win enough games to make the tournament will still be difficult - but if MU finds a way to sneak in they have a magical combination that could make for a high ceiling based on recent history.

Other less than 1 yr	Season	NCAA Wins	Yrs	Experience
UAB 14	2015	1	0.84	345
Kentucky 1	2015	4	0.73	346
Indiana 10	2015	0	0.98	336
Kansas 2	2015	1	0.97	338
Texas 7	2014	1	0.8	346
Colorado 8	2014	0	0.9	343
Kansas 2	2014	1	0.72	348
Western Kentucky 16	2012	1	0.84	335
Texas 11	2012	0	0.97	326
Michigan 8	2011	1	0.93	335
Memphis 12	2011	0	0.75	344
Kentucky 1	2010	3	0.83	341
Kansas 3	2009	2	0.88	333
Butler 9	2009	0	0.67	341
San Diego 13	2008	1	0.94	325
Villanova 12	2008	2	0.95	324
Purdue 6	2008	1	0.84	330
Duke 2	2008	1	1.22	295
USC 6	2008	0	0.66	338
Duke 6	2007	0	0.79	331
North Carolina 1	2007	3	0.87	329
45-23 four games > ave.

Updated Rankings: Dunn would be 3rd Nationally Without Missed Games; MU Must Finish in top 6 for any chance

It may be surprising that Luke Fischer and Henry Ellenson stayed pretty close to their overall national rankings after two Big East games (they are now at 106th and 347th). Basically, Value Add measures for the level of each opponent - and in essence viewed really good numbers against some very bad teams as being roughly the same performance as bad numbers against much stronger opponents.

The big problem right now is that the tiny chance of an at large bid being even lower at this point - it would likely take a Big East tournament win to make March Madness. The hard part is MU really must finish at least 6th to avoid a "play-in" game - three upsets in three nights while playing teams equally as tired is hard much trying to win four games in four days is near impossible (see performances against Seton Hall and then Villanova a few hours later from last year).

Anyway, not pretty, but here are the top 20 Value Add teams and where all Big East teams rank if you subtract all the players defense from offense (that's a lot of good teams to pass) followed by the Top 25 Value Add players in the conference and all Marquette's players.

Rnk	Team	Off	Def	Off-Def
1	Virginia	37.21	-9.83	47.05
2	Kansas	35.61	-11.11	46.73
3	Villanova	36.31	-9.42	45.74
4	Louisville	32.61	-12.25	44.86
5	Oklahoma	34.41	-10.24	44.65
6	Michigan St.	34.01	-10.03	44.05
7	Duke	37.01	-6.09	43.10
8	Xavier	31.71	-11.14	42.86
9	Miami FL	33.41	-8.69	42.10
10	Purdue	26.41	-15.68	42.09
11	West Virginia	28.81	-12.55	41.37
12	North Carolina	36.61	-4.56	41.17
13	SMU	36.51	-4.59	41.10
14	Maryland	32.21	-7.90	40.12
15	Arizona	29.71	-9.96	39.67
16	Kentucky	30.61	-8.77	39.39
17	Iowa	33.81	-5.36	39.17
18	Iowa St.	34.01	-4.71	38.73
19	Pittsburgh	33.71	-4.77	38.48
20	Saint Mary's	33.51	-4.22	37.74
33	Butler	34.51	-0.15	34.66
35	Providence	28.21	-6.15	34.36
45	Seton Hall	24.91	-6.81	31.72
59	Creighton	29.61	-0.58	30.19
71	Georgetown	25.71	-3.57	29.28
102	Marquette	20.00	-5.59	25.59
159	DePaul	21.01	0.01	21.00
302	St. John's	5.24	-1.93	7.17

As for Kris Dunn, he would rank third in the country if not for the three games in which he had the flu (he had a negative rating for the Boston University 15 minutes he played with the flu, and a 0.0 for the two games he missed).

Rnk	Rank among 4000+ Players	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	Total Value
17	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	6' 5"	Jr	7.95	-2.65	11.82
22	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	6' 4"	Jr	6.42	-3.80	11.43
51	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	6' 9"	So	7.48	-1.67	10.33
63	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	6' 3"	Sr	7.44	-1.28	9.89
72	Ochefu, Daniel 23	Villanova	6' 11"	Sr	5.29	-3.17	9.63
90	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	6' 6"	So	6.45	-1.76	9.21
94	Farr, James 2	Xavier	6' 10"	Sr	5.05	-2.97	9.18
106	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	6' 11"	Jr	6.85	-1.03	9.04
113	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	6' 3"	Sr	6.81	-0.96	8.93
117	Garrett, Billy 5	DePaul	6' 6"	Jr	7.74	0.04	8.85
131	Jones, Roosevelt 21	Butler	6' 4"	Sr	6.35	-1.08	8.58
132	Henry, Myke 4	DePaul	6' 6"	Sr	6.18	-1.24	8.57
174	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	Creighton	7' 0	Sr	6.04	-0.84	8.02
179	Bullock, Rodney 5	Providence	6' 8"	So	4.95	-1.90	7.99
200	Bluiett, Trevon 5	Xavier	6' 6"	So	4.75	-1.80	7.69
220	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	Butler	6' 7"	Jr	6.21	-0.05	7.39
259	Carrington, Khadeen 0	Seton Hall	6' 3"	So	4.54	-1.52	7.06
264	Reynolds, Jalen 1	Xavier	6' 10"	Jr	3.39	-2.50	7.01
271	Davis, Myles 15	Xavier	6' 2"	Jr	5.27	-0.56	6.95
289	Brunson, Jalen 1	Villanova	6' 2"	Fr	5.29	-0.38	6.78
306	Wideman, Tyler 4	Butler	6' 8"	So	4.20	-1.38	6.69
347	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	6' 10"	Fr	3.39	-1.95	6.44
352	Martin, Kelan 30	Butler	6' 6"	So	4.59	-0.70	6.39
357	Zierden, Isaiah 21	Creighton	6' 3"	Jr	5.16	-0.22	6.38
358	Delgado, Angel 31	Seton Hall	6' 9"	So	3.00	-2.25	6.35
452	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	6' 6"	So	3.93	-0.80	5.73
790	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	6' 2"	So	2.54	-0.51	4.05
1015	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	6' 5"	Jr	1.26	-0.97	3.22
1129	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	6' 5"	Fr	1.77	-0.05	2.82
1547	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	6' 0	Fr	0.00	-0.67	1.68
1585	Ellenson, Wally 22	Marquette	6' 6"	Jr	0.24	-0.37	1.62
1936	Anim, Sacar 2	Marquette	6' 5"	Fr	0.02	0.37	1.01
1963	Heldt, Matt 12	Marquette	6' 10"	Fr	0.00	0.38	1.00

Non-Con formalities are over, it's time to start the Big East

We're not going to spend much time talking about the last game of the non-conference season because there are so many more interesting things to talk about. First, unexpectedly, Coach Wojciechowski got a contract extension from Marquette to put him under contract through the 2021-22 season. We do a little light speculating about that and general come away ambivalent about the whole thing. We move on to much more pressing matters, the Big East season. We spend a lot of time going through Marquette's schedule, predicting results and talking about what it's going to take for Marquette to make the NCAA tournament (hint: a lot). We go in depth on the opening game against Seton Hall and what that match up looks like for Marquette. Welcome to the 2015-16 Big East season and have a Happy New Year! Download this episode (right click and save)

MU 1- to 3-pt favorite in FS, KenPom, Sagarin, Massey, Value Add; Fischer Breaks top 100 & MSU was 7-point dog in Value Add 3.0

Denzel Valentine's absence cost Michigan State 6 points of offense and gave Iowa an extra 2 points - enough to change Michigan State from a 73-72 favorite last night at Iowa on KenPom to a 67-74 underdog. In fact, they lost to the Iowa team that looked so good at Marquette by a 70-83 margin.

We just completed the first true run of Value Add Basketball 3.0 (click here if you want detailed explanation of the result of the 1000 plus lines of code programmers completed this break as we calibrated much more advanced calculations). The new data projects a healthy Marquette to beat a healthy Seton Hall 70-69 tonight in the Big East opener - and KenPom, Massey, Sagarin and the Fox Sports projection also all project a one to three point MU win tonight on Fox Sports 1 in what KenPom ranks as the most exciting game of the day.

Value Add 3.0 Adjustment to kenpom	Michigan St.	Iowa
Pomeroy	73.0	72.0
Valentine's Value Add 12 of 13 games	8.9	-2.6
Valentine Per Game	9.6	-2.8
71 trips in Iowa Game / 100	0.71	0.71
Impact of losing Valentine	-6.4	1.8
Pomeroy Projection - Valentine Loss	66.6	73.8
Actual Final	70.0	83.0

To go over the math using last night's game as an example, Pomeroy calculated a 73-72 MSU win based on all results to date. Valentine's current Offensive Value Add is 8.9 and Defense is -2.6 - meaning that is how many points he impacts each team's points per 100 possessions. However, that includes the ZERO rating for the game Valentine already missed to injury, so his per game is actually 9.6 and -2.8 - the fourth best total in the country. Since there were 71 possessions each in last night's game, losing Valentine cost Michigan State 6.4 points total and added 1.8 points to Iowa's score.

When you add those figures to Pomeroy's projection it yields the 67-74 projected loss for the No. 1 ranked Spartans. And lose they did.

Source	Seton Hall	at Marquette
Pomeroy	70.0	71.0
Massey	70.0	72.0
Sagarin	UD	by 0.6
Fox Sports Projection	UD	by 3
Value Add Offense	24.6	21.2
Value Add Defense	-6.0	-5.9
Cross add previous two +82	100.7	97.3
KenPom Tempo/100	0.7	0.7
Neutral Court Score	70.5	68.1
VA Home +2, Away -2	68.5	70.1

Because Seton Hall and Marquette are healthy for tonight as far as I know, no adjustment is made. You can go with your favorite projection - Fox Sports' listed spread is a 3-point MU win, Massey Ratings and Value Add (with rounding) says MU by 2, and Pomeroy and Sagarin have MU by 1.

Value Add 3.0 continues to be focused on individual player values, but to give a better understanding of how the sum of values add up to a total team performance, I ran the math above. The sum of the Offensive Ratings for Seton Hall players is 24.6, over three points better than Marquette's 21.2. The defenses are virtually even at -6.0 and -5.9. The assumption behind Version 3.0 is that a team of replacement players would score about 82 points per 100 trips going up against an AVERAGE D1 defense (this total will always be 20 points less than the national average moving forward).

Therefore both teams "start" with 82 points per 100 trips, and Seton Hall has enough offense to add 24.6 points per 100 trips when healthy, while Marquette has enough defense to take 5.9 back away - leaving Seton Hall projected to score 100.7 points in 100 trips against Marquette and Marquette scoring 97.3. Of course, neither team will get 100 possessions - Pomeroy projects 70 possession each, so we multiply by .7 and get a 71-68 Seton Hall win on a neutral court. However, teams average scoring 2 points better than average at home and 2 points less on the road, so with the game being played at Marquette the projected final is 70-69 Marquette (actually a 2-point favorite due to rounding of 70.1 - 68.5).

Source	Seton Hall	at Marquette
Without Desi Rodriguez would lose	6.4	-1.8
Value Add Offense	18.3	21.2
Value Add Defense	-4.2	-5.9
Cross add previous two +82	94.4	99.0
KenPom Proj 70 Tempo/100	0.7	0.7
Neutral Court Score	66.1	69.3
VA Home +2, Away -2	64.1	71.3

Where Value Add 3.0 is more versatile is in quickly adjusting if a player misses a game from either team. Pirates small forward Desi Rodriguez is among the leaders in steals, 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting to rank as the 87th est player in the country with a 6.35 Offensive Rating and a -1.77 Defensive Rating. (other adjustments for position and another factor make the total slightly different than the basic Offense - Defense total).

If Rodriguez did not play (just for illustration, I do not know of any player expected to miss the game) then you would rerun the math with his contributions out, and Marquette would be a 71-64 favorite against a Seton Hall team without Rodriguez.

LSU's Ben Simmons is easily the top player in the country in the first run of the new system with a 15.31 rating, with Oklahoma's Buddy Hield in second. Luke Fischer breaks into the top 100 at 98th to be just behind Rodriguez for best player on the court tonight, while Henry Ellenson keeps skyrocketing as the third best player on the court tonight despite ranking outside the top 2000 after his first few games.

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	Total Value	PGPer	NBA?
1	Simmons, Ben 25	LSU	6'10"	Fr11gms	9.99	-4.10	15.31	SF*1.015	96%
2	Hield, Buddy 24	Oklahoma	6'4"	Sr11gms	10.87	-2.05	13.92	SG*1	57%
87	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	6'6"	So12gms	6.35	-1.77	9.25	SF*1.015
98	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	6'11"	Jr12gms	7.17	-0.79	9.07	C*1.015
258	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	6'10"	Fr12gms	4.28	-1.74	7.11	C*1.015	92%
304	Carrington, Khadeen 0	Seton Hall	6'3"	So12gms	4.77	-0.84	6.61	SG*1
350	Delgado, Angel 31	Seton Hall	6'9"	So12gms	3.18	-2.06	6.32	C*1.015
398	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	6'6"	So12gms	4.07	-0.91	6.05	SF*1.015
423	Nzei, Michael 1	Seton Hall	6'7"	Fr12gms	4.22	-0.63	5.93	PF*1.015
470	Sanogo, Ismael 14	Seton Hall	6'8"	So11gms	1.97	-2.56	5.60	C*1.015
640	Whitehead, Isaiah 15	Seton Hall	6'4"	So12gms	2.30	-1.36	4.65	PG*1
867	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	6'5"	Jr12gms	1.59	-1.12	3.75	SF*1.015
895	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	6'2"	So12gms	2.12	-0.51	3.63	SG*1
1113	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	6'5"	Fr12gms	1.77	-0.13	2.90	SG*1
1398	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	6'0	Fr12gms	0.21	-0.87	2.08	PG*1
1450	Gordon, Derrick 32	Seton Hall	6'3"	Sr12gms	0.49	-0.48	1.97	SG*1
1672	Ellenson, Wally 22	Marquette	6'6"	Jr10gms	0.00	-0.45	1.46	C*1.015
1798	Singh, Veer 33	Seton Hall	6'7"	Fr11gms	0.45	0.36	1.23	PF*1.015
1812	Anthony, Rashed 25	Seton Hall	6'9"	So8gms	0.41	0.86	1.21	PF*1.015
1825	Soffer, Dalton 21	Seton Hall	6'5"	Fr5gms	0.39	0.23	1.20	SF*1.015
1879	Anderson, Braeden 4	Seton Hall	6'9"	Jr10gms	0.00	-0.13	1.13	PF*1.015
1952	Carter, Myles 23	Seton Hall	6'9"	Fr3gms	0.07	2.43	1.04	PF*1.015
1981	Anim, Sacar 2	Marquette	6'5"	Fr8gms	0.01	0.29	1.01	SF*1.015
1988	Heldt, Matt 12	Marquette	6'10"	Fr8gms	0.00	0.34	1.00	PF*1.015

Wally and the Replacements

Writers rarely define the "Replacement Player," simply explaining that "Wins over Replacement (WAR)" and "Value Add Basketball" indicate how many more wins or points, respectively, a player is worth to his team.

Wally Ellenson and 350 other players form the composite "Replacement Player" against which all other players are judged based on the fact that these are the players averaging between 7 minutes, 31 seconds and 11 minutes, 3 seconds per game and not being NBA prospects. (e.g. when we ran the replacement player composite December 16 Marcus Paige of UNC was actually within that range due to games missed to injury, but is was not included).

The average performance by a replacement player this year is to hit 1 shot out of either 2 or 3 shots taken with an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 44%.  This year there are more big men in the replacement spot - so the blocked shots and offensive rebounds are close to average, but there are very few steals or assists and only about one three-pointer made every five games.

So a player's value add indicates how many points his team would be hurt if he could not play and the composite 9th man below stepped into an 8-man rotation in his place.

The first column below summarizes the stats of the composite replacement player, who has an 89.7 offensive rating playing against a defense averaging the 176th best defense in the country. The next columns show the average stats for each of the eight players per team averaging at least 11 minutes 4 seconds per game. Finally, the last column lists the average stats for each of Marquette's scholarship players.

Average Stat	Ave. of 351 9th Men	Ave in 8-man rotation	Marquette 10
Height	6-foot-5.6	6-foot-4.9	6-foot-5.8
Yr	SO (1.2 yrs)	JR (1.7 yrs)	SO (0.9)
NBA?	0%	2%	9%
Wt	208	204	210
G	7.5	8.3	10
%Min	9 min, 19 sec	22 min, 41 sec	20 min
Def Rtg (Pts All/Poss)	114.00	101.30	96.7
Ave. Off Faced	176th	176th	336th
Blk%	2.3	1.9	2.3
Stl%	1.4	1.8	2.3
FC/40	5.6	4.0	3.5
DR%	12.5	13.1	14
Offensive Rating	89.7	103.3	103.8
Ave Def Rnk	176th	176th	301st
Field Goals Per Game	1 of 2.4 (40%)	3.4 of 7.3 (46%)	2.8 of 5.9 (48%)
Free Throw Per Game	0.5 of 0.8 (61%)	1.8 of 2.5 (70%)	1.6 of 2.3 (69%)
%Poss	16.5	19.6	20
%Shots	16.0	19.8	20
eFG%	44%	52%	54%
OR%	6.1	5.3	6.1
ARate	8.0	12.9	10.6
TORate	21.9	18.5	19.7
FD/40	3.2	3.9	4.1
FTRate	37.5	38.0	39.6
2-pointers only	0.7 of 1.6 (46%)	2.4 of 4.9 (49%)	2.1 of 3.9 (55%)
3-pointers only	0.2 of 0.8 (29%)	0.9 of 2.4 (39%)	0.7 of 2.0 (35%)

Marquette's 107.1 points scored per 100 trips is pretty good (99th of 351 teams), but factor the adjustment for facing the 301st toughest defenses in the country and MUs offense rates barely above average - and likewise every Marquette players Offensive Value Add is held down.

The issue regarding weak opponents is tougher yet in defensive ratings. MU's outstanding steals, defensive rebounding, blocked shots, low fouls committed and 93.3 points allowed per 100 trips less in value a little because MU faces the 336th weakest opposing offenses in the country. While Henry Elleson, Cohen, Carter, Wilson and Fischer each take about two points off the board (Defensive Value Add) from if a Replacement Player took their place - but if they had the same numbers against tougher competition the defensive numbers would be outstanding.

While Presbyterian boasts one very strong Value Add player in DeSean Murray (top 10% of all players with a 3.61 Value Add) for Sunday's 1 p.m. game at the Bradley Center, the frustration for stat nerds like me is that it is a game against the 344th best offense in the country - so it kills MU's Value Add ratings just as the game itself kills MU's RPI.

Presbyterian's defense is a little better at 263rd in the country, but it still takes a very good offensive performance by any player with few turnovers or missed shots against a weak defense to keep a decent Value Add.

Luckily Big East season, with very tough opponents, offers all MU players a chance to prove they are ready for prime time and move up the Value Add Rankings.

Grinch Sagarin Gives MU 3.2% chance at NCAA Appearance

Christmas gifts include dominant twin towers, a 8-game winning streak, and three top 10 teams from the Big East to give MU's improving young team many chances for signature wins. In addition, MU is the top team in the nation at keeping teams off the foul line DESPITE putting up great steal and blocked shots numbers - and MU is one of only 15 teams to be both one of the 50 best shooting teams AND the 50 best at shooting defense (eFG%).

The bad news is that analytics give MU only a 3.2% chance of making it to the tournament, based on current Sagarin ratings and the schedule ahead (virtually the same percentage as if we used www.kenpom.com ratings).

Scenario	Scenario Resulting in March Madness Appearance	Sagarin%	RPI, SOS, Over, BE
I	20 wins or fewer but win Big East Tournament (e.g. beat SJU, Providence, Xavier, Villanova)	0.8%	55, 80, 24-11, 9-9 (or worse)
II	21 wins plus two tournament wins (e.g. beat Providence, Xavier, lose to Villanova)	0.4%	55, 75, 23-11, 10-8
III	22 wins plus one Big East tourney win (e.g. beat Providence, lose to Xavier)	1.0%	55, 83, 23-10, 11-5
IV	23-8 or better regular season (12-6 Big East even if 1st round loss in BE tourney)	0.9%	52, 96, 23-9, 12-6 (or better)
	BID: Chance of either 23 wins for at-large bid, or BE title (rounding of above reason for 3.2% rather than 3.1%)	3.2%	any of above
V	NO BID: Chance of anything else happening	96.8%	22 wins or fewer, no BE title

The premise of my calculations is that MU needs 23 total wins for an at-large bid, because anything less leaves MU so far from the top 50 in RPI and potentially outside the top 100 in Strength of Schedule after a "play-in" game in the Big East tournament.

Both Sagarin and Pomeroy project Marquette to finish the regular season 18-13. Using the tool at RPI Forecast, there is an 89.8 percent chance MU finishes the regular season with 20 or fewer wins, and if that is the case MU simply must win the Big East tournament to get a bid.

SCENARIO I - BIG EAST TITLE DESPITE 20 or FEWER WINS - That path would most likely entail winning four games such as St. John's (80% chance of win on neutral court), Providence (39%), Xavier (15%) and Villanova (21%). Multiply those chances together and Marquette would have a 0.94% chance of winning those four to take the title. So under the 89.6% chance of 20 or fewer wins, multiplied by the 0.94% chance of following that effort with a Big East title, there is a 0.8% chance of a bid under this scenario.

SCENARIO II - 21-10 PLUS 2 TOURNAMENT WINS (Providence and Xavier) - If MU wins 21 or more games, the 10-8 or better Big East record should result in a 5th seed or better. There is a 6.8% chance of 21 regular season wins, and a 5.58% chance of then winning at least two tournament games - so a 0.4% of this scenario (add to above and we are up to a 1.2% chance of playing in the tournament.  I always assume getting upset once in six "easy" games, so even hitting 21-10 would entail two wins over currently ranked teams and going 5-1 against Seton Hall, Creighton and Georgetown - then having to won two more at the Big East tournament.

SCENARIO III - 22-9 WIN PLUS 1 TOURNAMENT WIN (Providence) - If MU wins 22 games (11-7 in Big East play), then a win over someone like Providence should be enough for a bid.

SCENARIO IV - 23-8 REGULAR SEASON EVEN IF NO TOURNAMENT WINS - Even a 12-6 Big East season and 23-8 mark coming into the tournament would leave Marquette outside of the RPI Top 50 in addition to being outside the top 100 in strength of schedule going into the Big East Tournament. However, I can't see MU being left out with a record that good in a conference that has played this well out of conference. Even a first round tournament loss against a team like Providence would give MU an RPI of 52 and push MU to a SOS of 96.

The fact is I do believe MU is much better than the current ratings reflect. But the six games against teams outside the RPI 300 leave MU with virtually no margin of error. Even assuming no problems with the final cupcakes (Presbyterian Sunday and Stetson later in the year), games like the Big East opener at home against Seton Hall become must-win games.

I believe MU passes the eye test as a tournament team. The way Wojo has them trained to block shots without fouling are building the base for continued improvement, and experience could cure the turnover issue that is holding the team back. The analytical Grinch says MU has almost no chance, but Santa could have the last laugh again with a strong finish and return to March Madness.

Fischer 3rd in Big East "Net Points:" Ellenson near All-American last 6 games after TERRIBLE 1st 4 games

NC State's Cat Barber is averaging 20.6 points per game - but so far Luke Fischer is better. Barber is the only player in a major conference missing more than 11 shots per game (free throws and field goals) while Fischer misses only 4.3 shots per game (a 66.3% field goal percentage for Fischer to below 40% for Barber).

The explanation of "Net Points" (Points minus mistakes) and top 1000 players can be found here, and the more advanced Value Add Ratings are here.

Fischer has 7.5 net points per game (14.3 - 4.3 - 2.5) and Cat has 7.3 (20.6 - 11.1 - 2.2). Once Value Add factors in level of opponents faced, rebounds, steals, assists, defense etc., Fischer's overall Value Add 5.29 and Barber's is 5.08.

As for Henry Ellenson, the last six games he has scored 17.8 points per game with just 7.3 misses per game and 1.3 turnovers which adjusts to 2.0. That would put him in the top 1% of all players with 8.5 net points per game. However, his first four games Ellenson played like a freshman. He scored 14.5 per game, but that was missing 9.5 shots per game and turning the ball over 3.8 times a game (adjusted for 5.7 in the formula) so he actually had a net negative. So it basically took him just until his 5th game to look like an All-American sophomore after four games of looking like a freshman. The future is bright.

	Points	Misses	Adj TO	Net
Ellenson 1st 4	14.5	9.5	5.7	(0.7)
Ellenson last 6	17.8	7.3	2.0	8.5

Yet for some reason some critics do not seem to grasp that players who make a lot of mistakes hurt their team - and I constantly get criticism for a player who turns the ball over a lot and hits less than 40% of his shots is not in my top 100 for putting up a lot of positive stats.

The best total in the country is Grayson Allen, Duke's point guard who is averaging 21.4 points per game, minus just 7.3 missed shots per game and 1.7 adjusted turnovers per game. He has totaled 124 "Points minus Mistakes: or 12.4 per game.

The following starts with the top 10 players nationally, then the top 20 Big East players, the top 10 players in the other seven best conferences and finally the 10 best of the rest from other conferences.

Rnk	Name	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
NA	Average Player	All	All	6.6	3.7	1.6	1.4	11.3	1.3
Rnk	Top 10 National Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Allen, Grayson 3	PG	Duke	21.4	7.3	1.7	12.4	124	10.5
2	Walker, David 4	SG	Northeastern	23.1	7.1	3.3	12.7	114	9.6
3	Bradds, Evan 35	C	Belmont	19.4	4.5	3.7	11.2	112	7.7
4	Uthoff, Jarrod 20	PF	Iowa	19.6	7.4	1.5	10.7	107	9.2
5	Robinson, Justin 12	PG	Monmouth	20.4	7.9	1.9	10.6	106	9.2
6	Gibbs, Jack 12	PG	Davidson	27.8	8.7	2.0	17.2	103	8.1
7	Moody, Stefan 42	PG	Mississippi	24.1	10.9	3.0	10.2	102	6.0
8	Ware, Gavin 20	PF	Mississippi St.	19.0	4.4	2.0	12.7	101	8.8
9	Poeltl, Jakob 42	C	Utah	20.1	6.0	3.2	10.9	98	9.9
10	Emegano, Obi 15	SG	Oral Roberts	25.3	10.8	3.7	10.9	98	6.1
Rnk	Big East Top 20 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Dunham, Kellen 24	SF	Butler	19.1	6.7	2.5	9.9	89	4.6
2	Bentil, Ben 0	C	Providence	17.7	8.0	2.5	7.2	80	5.4
3	Fischer, Luke 40	C	Marquette	14.3	4.3	2.5	7.5	75	5.3
4	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	PG	Georgetown	16.2	7.9	1.7	6.6	66	5.7
5	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	C	Creighton	10.7	3.2	1.2	6.3	63	5.1
6	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	PF	Butler	12.3	4.6	0.8	6.9	62	5.8
7	Davis, Myles 15	PG	Xavier	11.7	4.6	1.0	6.1	61	4.7
8	Zierden, Isaiah 21	SG	Creighton	12.0	5.0	0.9	6.1	61	5.8
9	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	PG	Villanova	12.3	4.6	1.0	6.7	61	7.5
10	Hart, Josh 3	C	Villanova	15.0	6.7	1.8	6.5	59	7.8
11	Martin, Kelan 30	C	Butler	14.8	5.2	3.2	6.4	57	4.3
12	Henry, Myke 4	C	DePaul	13.2	3.7	3.8	5.7	57	4.1
13	Garrett, Billy 5	PG	DePaul	14.2	6.5	2.1	5.6	56	2.8
14	Dunn, Kris 3	PG	Providence	16.8	8.9	2.7	5.2	52	7.8
15	Thomas, Khyri 2	SG	Creighton	10.8	3.5	2.2	5.1	51	3.3
16	Farr, James 2	C	Xavier	10.0	4.0	1.1	4.9	49	5.9
17	Ellenson, Henry 13	C	Marquette	16.5	8.2	3.4	4.9	49	3.4
18	Bullock, Rodney 5	C	Providence	13.7	6.4	2.9	4.4	49	4.4
19	Bluiett, Trevon 5	PF	Xavier	14.6	7.2	2.6	4.8	48	4.9
20	Wideman, Tyler 4	PF	Butler	10.0	3.2	1.5	5.3	47	5.7
Rnk	A10 Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Allen, Terry 15	C	Richmond	20.6	8.2	3.1	9.3	83	8.7
2	Colter, Derrick 1	PG	Duquesne	19.0	8.2	2.0	8.8	79	3.4
3	Johnson, Melvin 32	SG	VCU	19.6	9.4	1.4	8.7	79	6.5
4	Thomas, Mandell 23	SG	Fordham	19.5	8.3	1.5	9.8	78	6.2
5	Price, Jordan 21	SF	La Salle	25.4	10.1	4.9	10.4	73	5.6
6	Mason, Micah 22	PG	Duquesne	16.3	6.7	1.7	8.0	72	4.6
7	Cavanaugh, Tyler 34	C	George Washington	16.1	5.8	3.5	6.8	68	5.5
8	Hinds, Jabarie 5	PG	Massachusetts	16.4	7.1	1.9	7.4	67	6.7
9	Cline, TJ 10	PG	Richmond	15.0	6.2	1.5	7.2	65	4.6
10	Rhoomes, Ryan 30	PF	Fordham	14.1	3.8	2.4	7.9	63	4.4
Rnk	ACC Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	McClellan, Sheldon 10	SF	Miami FL	16.8	4.3	1.8	10.7	96	7.6
2	Gbinije, Michael 0	PG	Syracuse	19.8	7.6	2.6	9.6	96	10.2
3	Blossomgame, Jaron 5	C	Clemson	16.3	5.9	1.7	8.7	87	6.4
4	Jackson, Demetrius 11	PG	Notre Dame	17.8	6.3	1.9	9.5	86	7.6
5	Lee, Damion 0	SF	Louisville	18.8	6.0	2.2	10.5	84	8.9
6	Beasley, Malik 5	SG	Florida St.	18.3	6.1	2.2	9.9	80	6.2
7	Artis, Jamel 1	PG	Pittsburgh	16.3	4.6	1.8	9.8	79	4.8
8	Young, Michael 2	SG	Pittsburgh	17.6	4.6	3.4	9.6	77	7.0
9	Brogdon, Malcolm 15	PG	Virginia	16.9	7.6	1.4	8.0	72	6.9
10	Johnson, Brice 11	C	North Carolina	13.4	4.0	1.5	7.9	71	7.2
Rnk	American Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Miller, Shonn 32	PF	Connecticut	12.0	3.8	0.9	7.3	66	6.3
2	Woodard, James 10	SG	Tulsa	16.9	7.3	3.2	6.4	64	4.7
3	Gray, Rob 2	SG	Houston	19.6	8.1	2.6	8.8	62	4.5
4	Clark, Gary 11	C	Cincinnati	9.7	2.7	2.0	5.0	55	6.7
5	Cobb, Farad 21	SG	Cincinnati	11.7	5.5	1.6	4.6	50	3.3
6	Harrison, Shaquille 3	SF	Tulsa	18.8	10.6	3.2	5.0	50	4.8
7	Pollard, Devonta 24	C	Houston	14.9	5.7	2.2	7.0	49	4.5
8	Johnson, Ronnie 3	PG	Houston	12.7	4.4	1.4	6.9	48	4.4
9	Tyson, BJ 21	C	East Carolina	14.2	6.6	3.0	4.6	46	3.0
10	Enechionyia, Obi 0	PF	Temple	11.6	4.8	1.4	5.4	43	3.1
Rnk	Big Ten Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Robinson, Duncan 22	PF	Michigan	13.6	3.1	1.0	9.5	95	7.0
2	Ferrell, Yogi 11	PG	Indiana	16.8	6.5	2.0	8.3	92	8.5
3	King, Joey 24	PF	Minnesota	14.8	4.6	1.5	8.7	87	5.4
4	Haas, Isaac 44	C	Purdue	13.5	4.2	1.6	7.8	86	5.9
5	Trimble, Melo 2	PG	Maryland	15.8	5.0	2.6	8.2	82	7.9
6	LeVert, Caris 23	PG	Michigan	16.9	7.2	1.7	8.0	80	8.1
7	White, Andrew 3	PF	Nebraska	16.7	6.4	3.4	7.0	76	5.0
8	Valentine, Denzel 45	SG	Michigan St.	18.6	8.1	3.7	6.8	75	9.8
9	Blackmon, James 1	SF	Indiana	16.0	6.2	3.2	6.6	73	5.4
10	Forbes, Bryn 5	SG	Michigan St.	12.7	4.6	1.8	6.3	70	3.0
Rnk	Big 12 Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Hield, Buddy 24	SG	Oklahoma	22.1	8.4	2.3	11.4	80	9.6
2	Niang, Georges 31	PF	Iowa St.	17.4	6.3	2.7	8.4	75	6.0
3	Brodziansky, Vladimir 10	C	TCU	14.4	4.0	2.5	7.9	71	5.3
4	Selden, Wayne 1	SG	Kansas	16.4	5.4	2.4	8.6	69	5.9
5	Morris, Monte 11	PG	Iowa St.	15.1	6.1	1.4	7.6	68	7.5
6	Felix, Javan 3	PG	Texas	11.0	3.6	0.9	6.5	65	5.5
7	Gathers, Rico 2	C	Baylor	15.1	5.4	1.8	7.9	64	7.8
8	Williams, Devin 41	C	West Virginia	17.0	6.0	4.0	7.0	63	5.7
9	McKay, Jameel 1	C	Iowa St.	15.0	5.9	2.6	6.5	59	5.6
10	Ellis, Perry 34	PF	Kansas	14.8	6.1	1.5	7.1	57	4.7
Rnk	Pac 12 Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Scott, Josh 40	C	Colorado	18.0	5.1	2.0	10.9	87	8.5
2	Andrews, Andrew 12	PG	Washington	21.0	9.6	2.1	9.4	84	8.0
3	Welsh, Thomas 40	PF	UCLA	12.8	4.1	1.2	7.5	75	5.0
4	Alford, Bryce 20	PG	UCLA	16.9	8.1	2.5	6.4	70	4.3
5	Rabb, Ivan 1	PF	California	12.7	3.5	2.6	6.6	66	6.2
6	Loveridge, Jordan 21	SF	Utah	15.0	5.9	1.9	7.2	65	5.0
7	Trier, Allonzo 11	SG	Arizona	13.2	4.4	2.6	6.2	62	2.8
8	King, George 24	SF	Colorado	17.3	6.6	3.0	7.7	61	3.1
9	Hawkinson, Josh 24	C	Washington St.	16.4	4.9	2.8	8.7	61	6.6
10	Anderson, Ryan 12	C	Arizona	15.6	6.4	2.5	6.6	60	5.6
Rnk	Pac 12 Top 10 Players	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Punter, Kevin 0	PG	Tennessee	22.9	8.8	2.5	11.6	93	8.3
2	Hannahs, Dusty 3	SG	Arkansas	18.6	6.3	2.0	10.3	92	3.9
3	Bell, Anthlon 5	SG	Arkansas	16.9	7.6	1.2	8.2	74	2.7
4	Baldwin, Wade 4	PG	Vanderbilt	15.3	5.1	2.5	7.7	69	6.2
5	Kacinas, Mindaugas 25	PF	South Carolina	13.3	4.2	1.6	7.5	67	4.4
6	Canty, Kareem 1	PG	Auburn	19.3	8.3	1.6	9.4	66	5.1
7	Simmons, Ben 25	SF	LSU	19.0	7.5	3.3	8.2	65	11.3
8	Chatkevicius, Laimonas 14	C	South Carolina	13.0	4.9	1.5	6.6	60	4.1
9	Davis, Tyler 34	C	Texas A&M	11.4	2.8	2.7	5.9	59	6.1
10	Kingsley, Moses 33	C	Arkansas	15.2	6.3	2.5	6.4	58	6.9
Rnk	Top 10 Players All Other Conferences	Pos	Team	Pts	Misses	Adj TO	PPG-Mist	Pts-Mist	VA
1	Felder, Kahlil 20	PG	Oakland	24.6	10.4	3.4	10.7	96	7.7
2	Daniel, James 11	PG	Howard	29.4	13.8	3.7	11.9	95	6.2
3	Beane, Anthony 25	SG	Southern Illinois	20.5	8.3	3.4	8.9	98	3.4
4	Timmer, Reed 12	PG	Drake	19.0	6.8	2.6	9.6	86	3.3
5	Balentine, DJ 31	PG	Evansville	21.9	9.8	2.7	9.4	85	2.2
6	Adams, Josh 14	PG	Wyoming	24.4	9.4	3.1	11.9	95	8.3
7	Reischel, Jarelle 30	C	Eastern Kentucky	19.3	6.3	5.1	7.9	87	7.2
8	Engesser, Nate 33	SG	Denver	15.9	4.1	2.1	9.7	97	4.8
9	Evans, Mo 0	PG	IPFW	17.2	6.7	2.2	8.3	91	5.2
10	White, Jake 43	PF	Nebraska Omaha	16.2	4.7	1.9	9.6	87	4.1

All your #BadgerHateWeek efforts have paid off

If that wasn't satisfying, I don't know what is! Welcome to the Wisconsin sucks and we're overly happy that Marquette won in Madison Scrambled Eggs podcast. Not much summary to go through here. First no red of Owen next year, which is awesome. Lastly, we break down the game, what we liked, what we didn't like(spoiler alert, we liked a lot) and what short and long term ramifications there are from this game. So grab a warm mug of hate, snuggle up by the burning badger fire and listen to the tale of the latest Marquette triumph over the hated team from Madison. PS. included is a photo of Owen trying to escape his Badger tormentors during the game. Enjoy Download this episode (right click and save)

MU 3 of top 6 Shooters in BE; Wisconsin Performance Projects 23-10, RPI of 46

The season-changing win at Wisconsin gives hope of March Madness and leaves MU players among the leaders in Value Add and all of the key stat categories except protecting the ball. Here are the four updates in this edition:

1. Fischer, Cheatham, Cohen in Top 6 Big East Shooters
2. Big East Gets Even Stronger
3. Repeating Badger Performance Just Enough for Bid
4. Updated top 25 Big East Players in Value Add

1. Fischer, Cheatham, Cohen among Top 6 Big East Shooters

Luke Fischer hit five of 10 shots against Wisconsin to fall slightly to a 66.3% field goal percentage - still the top figure of any Big East player to play at least 60% of the team's minutes. Haanif Cheatham's driving four of six against the Badgers leaves him 3rd (63.7%) and Sandy Cohen's two of three including a three-pointer (making his effective Field Goal record as 2.5 of 3) left him in sixth at 60.2%).

If you include all players no matter how much they have played, Fischer drops to 11th as Sacar Anim comes in as the fourth best shooter.

Marquette's weakness this season is turnovers, and therefore Henry Ellenson's rate of turning the ball over 15.2% of his possessions is actually the best on the team but just below average. Just for fun I ran the big eight tempo free categories for all players regardless of minutes played mainly so I could note that Michael Mache is easily the top offensive rebounder in the country - getting 30.4% of all of MU's missed shots while in the game. Here are the MU players in the top 20 in each of the eight big categories.

• Effective FG% Leader: Darryl Reynolds, Villanova, 77.8%; MU - Anim 4th, 72.2%; Fischer 11th, 66.3%; Cheatham 14th, 66.2%; Cohen 19th, 60.2%.
• Offensive Reb% Leader: Mache 30.4% (top qualifier James Farr, Xavier, 19.3%), MU - Fischer 12th, 14.2%, 
• Defensive Reb % Leader: Frederick Scott, DePaul, 40%,(top qualifier James Farr, Xavier, 28.3%), MU - Wally Ellenson 12th,  22.9%; Henry Ellenson, 15th, 21.6%, 
• Assist Rate Leader: Kris Dunn, Providence, 47.1%, MU - Carter 4th, 31.4%.
• Turnover Leader: Drew Edwards, Providence, 0% (top qualifier, Ryan Fazekas, Providence, 4.7%), MU- Mache 0%, (top MU qualifier Henry Ellenson 48th, 15.2%).
• Block% Leader: Kassoum Yakwe, St. John's, 15.2% (top qualifier Yankuba Sima, St. John's 13.1%), MU - Fischer 9th, 7.1%.
• Steal% Leader: Riyan Williams, Georgetown, 14.6% (top qualifier Kris Dunn 6.4%); MU Anim 4th, 5.1%; Carter 12th 3.3%; Johnson 14th, 3.1%; Heldt 15th, 3.0%; Wilson 20th, 2.8%.
• Fouls Drawn/40 minutes Leader: Develle Phillips, DePaul, 14.9 (top qualifier, Billy Garrett DePaul 7.2): MU - Mache 7th, 6.8 (top MU qualifier Henry Ellenson, 5.3).

2. Big East Gets Even Stronger

Only the ACC and Big 12 can match the Big East's four teams in the Top 25, and Georgetown is also getting votes and 31st at www.kenpom. Creighton (57 at kenpom), Seton Hall (60) and Marquette (71) give the conference eight teams in contention. MU's upset win at Wisconsin was part of a 3-0 day against other major conferences, with Butler beating Tennessee, and Xavier winning by double digits against Cincinnati in the only match-up of ranked teams.

3. Repeating Badger Performance Just Enough for Bid

RPI Forecast showed MU as a 5-point underdog going into the Wisconsin game, and finishing the season with a 17-14 record and RPI of 127. If MU were to outperform the rest of the projections by the same seven points they did on Saturday (2 point win vs. 5-point underdog), that would play out to a 23-10 record after a 11-7 mark in conference for the 4th seed, win over 5th seeded Providence and loss to the No. 1 seed.

All that would leave MU with an RPI of 46, enough to make the tournament. However, the margin of error is still small as that is about the last spot to get an automatic bid, so even 22 wins may not be enough for a bid. Here is how the season plays out assuming MU outperforming current projections by seven points each:

 And the resulting numbers:

 4. Updated top 25 Big East Players in Value Add

MU players continue to recover from truly dreadful starts in the early Value Add meetings, and are moving up quickly.

Fischer is now all the way up to No. 7 - a second team All-Big East selection at that rate. Henry Ellenson surged into the top 25 after rating near the bottom when he was averaging four turnovers a game through four games and hitting 4 of his first 20 three-pointers. He now has hit 5 of his last 13 three-pointers and in the last six games dropped from 4 turnovers a game to 1 turnover a game.

The entire 7-man rotation is now in the top half of the 130 Big east players to date. Kris Dunn is still first in the conference but dropped with a 0.0 Value Add Saturday for a missed game and almost the same the previous game when he left early with a stomach virus. Here are the top 25 and the other MU players in the top half.

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Yr	Off	Def	Value Add
1	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	6'4"	Jr	3.26	-4.99	8.25
2	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	6'3"	Sr	5.67	-1.57	7.24
3	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	6'5"	Jr	3.88	-3.31	7.19
4	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	6'6"	So	4.73	-2.19	6.92
5	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	6'3"	Sr	4.65	-2.14	6.79
6	Farr, James 2	Xavier	6'10"	Sr	3.44	-3.21	6.65
7	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	6'11"	Jr	4.85	-1.51	6.36
8	Ochefu, Daniel 23	Villanova	6'11"	Sr	3.06	-3.20	6.26
9	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	6'9"	So	4.20	-1.72	5.92
10	Henry, Myke 4	DePaul	6'6"	Sr	4.32	-1.50	5.82
11	Bluiett, Trevon 5	Xavier	6'6"	So	3.53	-2.15	5.68
12	Reynolds, Jalen 1	Xavier	6'10"	Jr	2.19	-3.33	5.52
13	Davis, Myles 15	Xavier	6'2"	Jr	4.66	-0.81	5.47
14	Zierden, Isaiah 21	Creighton	6'3"	Jr	4.08	-1.31	5.39
15	Garrett, Billy 5	DePaul	6'6"	Jr	5.43	0.13	5.30
16	Wideman, Tyler 4	Butler	6'8"	So	2.98	-2.12	5.10
17	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	Butler	6'7"	Jr	4.35	-0.54	4.89
18	Bullock, Rodney 5	Providence	6'8"	So	2.72	-2.12	4.84
19	Jones, Roosevelt 21	Butler	6'4"	Sr	3.50	-1.32	4.82
20	Macura, JP 55	Xavier	6'5"	So	3.84	-0.93	4.77
21	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	Creighton	7'0	Sr	3.32	-1.42	4.74
22	Nzei, Michael 1	Seton Hall	6'7"	So	3.82	-0.67	4.49
23	Jenkins, Kris 2	Villanova	6'6"	Jr	2.53	-1.94	4.47
24	Sima, Yankuba 35	St. John's	6'11"	Fr	1.18	-3.15	4.33
25	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	6'10"	Fr	2.12	-2.13	4.25
29	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	6'6"	So	2.34	-1.65	3.98
44	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	6'5"	Jr	0.73	-1.28	2.01
51	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	6'5"	Fr	0.92	-0.84	1.76
54	Carter, Traci 21	Marquette	6'0	Fr	0.00	-1.60	1.60
55	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	6'2"	So	0.00	-1.56	1.56

Finish up those cupcakes, it's Badger Hate Week

It's one of our favorite times of year at the Scrambled Eggs podcast, Badger Hate Week. Before we hit that though, we need to spend a little time talking about the cupcakes Marquette has played and what those performances mean. We also took several questions from MUScoop.com regarding the season so far and answer them. We spend a lot of time talking about player minute philosophy and if the team is getting better. Once we get all of that out of the way, we immerse ourselves into Badger Hate Week. We talk about all the reasons this game is important including why Phil is starting the hashtag #noredforowen. We then talk about the game and what might happen including fanboy predictions. So enjoy the podcast and reveal in Badger Hate Week. Download this episode (right click and save)