Pray

I'm part of what is probably a small minority that would suggest that the success of our next coach is dependent more on the grace of God than any careful evaluation that Steve Cottingham might undertake over the next few days.

There isn't an AD on earth that could make a 100% perfect decision between the type of candidates that MU will have available to them. How could they? Is it really possible to come up with some way to accurately predict the future performance of ANY coach?

If there were a way to predict who will be successful in five years and who will fall short, there wouldn't be any failed coaches. Unfortunately, there is no book on how to pick the perfect coach--the one who will recruit well, win at the highest levels, graduate all his players, be loved by fans & media alike, and never ever leave.

All we know is that any candidate that MU would consider has three things in common:

--They all have some track record of success.

--There is absolutely no way to know how that track record will translate as the Head Coach at MU.

--Every one of them already has rabid fans and vocal detractors.

Unless Cottingham goes off the rails and rehires Bob Dukiet, there will be a defensible case for just about any of the candidates who's names are being mentioned: Altman, Few, Miller, Bennett, Brad Brownell, Martelli, Jay Wright, Larranga, Buzz Williams, McKillop, Jim Boylan, Anthony Grant, Krueger, Anderson, Horn, Trent Montgomery, Bruce Weber, Majerus, Bruce Pearl, Painter, Lowery, Keno Davis, Scott Drew, Frachilla, Travis Ford, Lawrence Frank, Kristkowiak. I'm sure there are some I missed.

Is it really possible to think that anyone can separate one coach who stands above all the others from the above list? I doubt it.

History gives us no guide. In the late 1990's, Pete Gillen moved from Providence to Virginia, and Rick Barnes moved from Clemson to Virginia. I think there was almost universal belief that Virginia made the home run hire, and Texas was simply hiring an interim coach to clean up for the disgraced Tom Penders. Gillen had taken Providence to an Elite Eight. Barnes above average but certainly not outstanding performer during his time at Providence and Clemson. We all know who wound up the better coach.

The obvious question--did Texas make the better hire because their AD was better? More experienced? Had a better selection committee or consultant?

Was this truly within the AD's hands? Or God's?

I'm going with the latter. Pray that the next head coach at MU wins consistently, maintains the high standards of ethics and academic performance, recruits well, and represents the school and the community well.

“If someone leaves us, we just want to rub it in.”

Dominic James summed it up for many Marquette fans today when he spoke those words at the afternoon press conference -- many thanks to the team at the re-designed alternative MU newspaper, The Warrior, for sending this our way. Nice job, fellas.

BTW, don't forget the humor break (at the expense of the rodents).

And check out Hilltopper's sublime entry from this afternoon, Ceilings and Forest Fires.

.......much more to come here at Cracked Sidewalks.

Humor break....need to hate on the Badgers a bit

Found this on the Spartan Tailgate fan forum today as they were ripping on Bo Ryan for going down early in the NCAA tournament and only beating double digit seeds. I was trying to find out their reaction to Crean going to IU since it has been widely rumored for years that Crean would take over for Izzo when I stumbled on this.

Sorry, but I think we all need a 10 second break....and at least right now our coach doesn't bail out early in the NCAAs...of course we don't have a coach right now but that's a minor detail.

Ceilings and Forest Fires

A year ago, I blogged an entry called "A Ticking Clock" .. I'll spare the details, but it was written after being crushed by MSU in the NCAAs. It was about a coach who, in 8 seasons, had brought Marquette to a new level, where the team existed in the rarified air of the top 25. It credited him with a number of wonderful achievements.

Crean brought excitement, attendance, and exposure back to Marquette like nobody's business. What he did not bring, was post-season success, and the clock was ticking. I don't write that sentence today as a monument to sour-grapes. Without D. Wade, one of the greatest NBA players in years, Crean has a grand total of one NCAA victory, and that happened 12 days ago. One. Uno.

13 days ago, I was nervous. Had Crean not won that game versus Kentucky, had we lost, we would have gone 8 of 9 seasons without an NCAA victory, it would have been clear that Crean could not win in March, and had hit his ceiling.

Now, lots of people like that ceiling. Top 25 rankings, top third of the Big East, lots of wins, exposure, and the kids graduate. Some fans are just happy to be in the top 64, just making it to the tournament. I don't subscribe to that math. All of that stuff is very very important, to be sure, but the final exam is winning in March and you've gotta win one every so often. If you're paid like a top 10 coach, you should deliver wins, exposure, AND win a few in March. Otherwise, what's the point?

But Crean won a game, we beat UK two weeks ago. With the same team next year, the expectations would have been higher, yet no Marquette fan would be surprised with a 1st or 2nd round bow-out, because it'd happened so many other times. Last week, I predicted a 12-6 season with 1-1 in the BET, and 1-1 in the NCAAs. We were getting ready to watch the same movie again. That's a pathetic expectation for a team with 3 senior starters and perhaps 3 NBA players on its roster, and I don't think the blame lies with the players.

So am I glad Crean quit? I wouldn't say that. And certainly not the disrespectful way in which Crean pulled the trigger, not notifying Marquette officials nor the team in advance. There's a lot of visceral anger on the internet right now, directed at a guy who's been promoting the program as a family organization, yet coldly divorced us at the drop of a hat.

I look at this like a forest fire started by a bolt from the sky. Marquette needs to act quickly and boldly to put the fire out. Some trees will burn and the forest will be forever changed. But new growth will take root. We'll get a new coach, and the movie will be different. Are we at risk to substantially decline? In the Big East, hell yeah.

In the short-term, Marquette could be very screwed, with future and current players and assistants leaving the team. In the long-term, we have a chance at a guy with a higher coaching ceiling, a better bench coach, someone who can recruit a balanced team so we don't rely on favorable matchups to win big games.

It could be a bumpy ride for the next few years, we'll be in re-building mode, but with the commitment that Marquette has shown, with assets like the Big East and the Al Center, MU has a great platform from which to rise again and achieve higher heights.

Tom Crean Irsay'd Marquette

In his latest blog, Don Walker of the J-S clues us in to the chain of events as they unfolded yesterday evening.

Tom Crean, the beneficiary of a generous, flexible,and accommodating institution, flushed that trust and goodwill down the drain and went "Irsay" on Marquette .........slipping out to Indiana under the cover of night without the decency to discuss his decision in-person with the folks who worked tirelessly to support his basketball program over the years.

There you have it, MU was Irsay'd. Will Mayflower move TC as well?

Time to put Cottingham's acumen to work....lawyering

Well one benefit of Cottingham as AD is that he's a lawyer. How gifted we don't know, but while he's figuring out who to hire he can also lay the ground work for MU to get a huge chunk of change from Tom Crean and/or Indiana University.

What comes into question here is the buyout in the contract. Some are reporting a small buyout, which begs the question who in the MU general counsel's office approved that. Last I checked, our general counsel was.....Cottingham....for many years. Let's assume that rumor of a small buyout is not true and there is a large buyout. Well, good, that's what large buyouts are for, to protect schools on their investments and prevent easy poaching. Doesn't always work, but it's a deterrent. Now, what if there was no buyout as some others are implying. In other words, MU has him under contract for another 8 years and he owes this service to Marquette. Ah, this is where the fun comes in.

See West Virginia vs Rich Rodriguez for what could be a foreshadowing of things to come. Of course, if it gets to that point then it becomes the legal system determining if contracts were breached, what was promised or not promised, etc., and ultimately the two sides settle...usually. A lot of bad publicity usually comes out of it too, not something that anyone wants to see.

So rest assured, MU isn't going to get a $12 to $15 million check from IU or Tom Crean so he can coach in Bloomington. That's a pipe dream and a silly proposition - but MU will cash in. However, that is not to suggest that MU shouldn't press IU very hard on this if, in fact, there is no 'buyout' per se. MU should be entitled to a large compensation amount and Cottingham will press very hard for it. That money will need to be used to hire the next guy and to show MU is serious about it's legal stance on other contracts.

Fun times. Either way, MU stands to get a huge pay day on this. Spend the money wisely.

Thanks for the memories Tom, especially 2003 but don't let the door hit you where the good Lord split you.

Who will be the next coach: A top 10 list of potential candidates

While the MU fanbase moves from shock to despair to anger and soon to hope, let's take a look at some potential candidates for the head coaching job.

Unlike when MU hired Crean roughly a decade ago, this is no longer a mid-major program so the pool of available talent will be much more impressive. Marquette should no longer be forced to look for the next 'hot young assistant' or re-tread -- but rather, for a proven, young successful coach with a track record of recruiting and winning.

With a strong returning core of talent, a solid 2009 recruiting class, big money, fine facilities, the nation's best conference and unparalleled support from the administration -- Marquette is now in a strong position to land a terrific coach. Here are few names that might surface, in order of personal preference:

1) Sean Miller (Xavier): An ideal fit......he's a Big East guy stuck in the mediocre A-10 who has proven himself for the Jesuits at Xavier.
2) Tony Bennett (Washington State): Popular opinion would make him the logical first call for Cottingham. A Wisconsin native and part of that state's basketball royalty, he'd be an instant hit in Milwaukee. But after looking past IU, would MU have what it takes to entice him to bail on Wazzu?
3) Scott Drew (Baylor): Drew made lemonade out of lemons in Baylor of all places, somehow finding a way to rebuild a program rocked to its core just a few years ago. With a strong midwestern heritage and two different head coaching stops, Drew has the experience and is a proven winner.
4) Anthony Grant (VCU): Perhaps this rising star is the wildcard for MU. Grant, one of the top assistant coaches in the nation under Billy Donovan at Florida, has done nothing to disappoint since arriving at VCU. In two seasons there, he's won 52 games and a pair of conference titles.
5) Travis Ford (UMass): Part of the professionally promiscuous Rick Pitino coaching tree, Ford is a proven winner at each of his stops along the way. UMass is coming off of a 21 win season, and Ford might look to bail for a real league and a program that is committed to playing with the big boys.

There are several second-tier options which might surface:
5) Brad Brownell (Wright State): He's won big with two mid-major programs, UNCW and now Wright State. The Indiana native is a proven winner -- but can he recruit? We know he can coach -- he rebuilt Wright State on the fly and put together back to back 20-win seasons.
6) Chris Lowery (SIU): Until this year, his teams always exceeded expectations and won big in March.
7) Buzz Williams: Williams was good enough to be named the head coach at New Orleans, though he left that program in a lurch last year. A recruiter par excellance, Williams could give MU the best shot at retaining the present roster.
8) Phil Martelli (St. Josephs): Martelli is a proven winner at a fellow Jesuit institution, and has successfully recruited the East Coast in recent years. Moving from the A-10 to the Big East is a natural progression.
9) Lon Kruger (UNLV): The guy can flat-out coach and won in the Midwest before. It would feel like a re-tread hire, but Kruger is a proven coach and program builder.
10) Brian Gregory (Dayton): Part of the Tom Izzo coaching tree, Gregory re-established Dayton as a respectable program. Its fair to wonder though, why he can't win big in a mediocre A-10. A reach.

Thanks but no thanks: Rick Majerus, Kevin O'Neill, Tommy Amaker, Tim Buckley, Johnny Dawkins, Steve Robinson, Matt Doherty, Bruce Weber, and Dana Altman.

Tyshawn Taylor to seek release from MU

Zagoria talks to Bob Hurley, Taylor's coach, in his latest blog.

No surprise, though MU is not obligated to release Taylor or any member of the 2009 class from their binding LOIs. In the past under Bill Cords, MU did not honor these requests - - - but times have changed.

In fairness, the actual quote from Hurley is:

"I would like the opportunity to have him released from his scholarship in the event that we don't like who's hired"

That implies that any new coach would still have the opportunity to re-recruit Taylor and convince him that the new staff would be a good fit.

Regardless, it's time for quick, decisive action from Marquette in the face of these shocking developments.

Team banquet next week....NO TOM CREAN

The other thing Cottingham should do, next week at the team banquet, Tom Crean should not be involved at all. Sounds petty? Too bad. Crean did a wonderful job in his 9 years, but you're gone now baby...dead to us. Sorry, but you shouldn't be allowed to address this team anymore, they are no longer yours.

Lazar Says...

Channel 12 WISN has an interview with Lazar ..

He was soft spoken, depressed .. "Of course I'm a little angry .. I feel like I lost a really good coach .. I think that a lot of my players feel the same way. I'm angry, I'm sad for the most part. " ..

Q: do you question your future here? "No, not at all. At our meeting, he made sure we don't question our futures .. he made sure he told us he loved us .. cared about us .. we believed that, he wouldn't have brought us here if he didn't."

Q: Jerel and Wes? "Yeah, I expect them back .. we have to stay strong, and stay a family."

Marquette pivotal next step to show how big a pair the Jesuits have

It was nearly 9 years to the day that I was in the Alumni Memorial Union at a press conference announcing Tom Crean had been hired by MU to replace Mike Deane. I really enjoyed working for Mike so I was still in a fog when all the coaching search stuff was going on. We had a difficult season with a losing record and ticket sales are always fun in those environments. We needed an energetic guy that believed in the program. Enter Tom Crean. I was impressed that day with press conference. This kid coach, and he was a kid because he was barely older then I was, was saying the right things for sure, but he also had the passion. Slick talker, something that many alumni never liked and some at IU will also not enjoy, but nevertheless I felt he believed what he was saying.

I only had the ability to work with him for about 5 months and it was an abbreviated five at that. With his family moving over from Michigan, Joanie pregnant with Riley and the entire process of how those things happen. But I do remember a couple of meetings with him one on one that made me feel pretty good. One, I could tell he was going to insert himself into the process no matter what. Now, that can be scary shit for a lot of employees and rightly so. Especially some young gun that may not know what the hell he is talking about. At times, quite frankly, he didn't know but he had an opinion and a desire anyway to get involved. I appreciated that. I remember asking him and his staff to call season ticket holders, EVERY ONE OF THEM along with his team to thank them for their support to MU. I expected him to tell me to take a hike....he didn't. His staff and players manned telephones and called every season ticket holder at night for three weeks straight until we went through the entire list.

Essentially whatever I asked him to do on the marketing side, he did it. That was the summer of his first year....I left soon after to take a gig on the west coast. Some of my compatriots that remained had to deal with him on a day to day basis over the next few years and their memories would be less enthusiastic then mine. He's a tough guy to work for, that is not in debate. Some would say he's impossible to work for....perhaps an equally fair comment. To each his own, it's what MU needed at the time.

So 9 years and 2 days later, Crean today announced he was going to coach at Indiana. As an IU and MU graduate, it was an odd day....I lose Tom Crean as coach but gain him at the same time. Strange feeling. IU could have done better in my opinion and MU is now in a tough tough spot, that's the hard part. Sad day in that regard.

Actually, sad may not cut it. Nervous is probably the best way to put my emotions right now. I wrote here last year and again two months ago, the scariest thing that could happen short term for MU is if Crean left because of one thing.....the AD. Cottingham has never done this and "THIS" is a big deal. The last thing I want is for Cottingham to have to go out there and run a search for the next coach having never done it before, these are difficult propositions and require some savvy maneuvering. Bill Cords should be on line 1 so fast it makes the university's head spin.

But here's the bigger issue, it's not just Cords that can help but the university in general. MU made an important play 9 years ago when they decided to fire a coach who won 100 games in 5 years (Mike Deane) and hire Tom Crean. They have since built a great practice facility, got us into the Big East, kept Crean happy enough for 9 years. MU had a lot of momentum until today but now has taken a shot to the groin. MU has to decide if it's going to get up swinging or play it safe. This is not the time for another hot assistant coach, those days are over....those days are for when you're in 12th place in the Big East, not when you're on your 3rd straight NCAA appearance and have your top 3 guys supposed to come back next year. This is also not the time for a good x's and o's coach that isn't willing to work his ass off recruiting, one that is looking to end his career at MU on cruise control.

So what we're saying is MU has to sack up and grow a pair, something it did 9 years ago but needs to do even more so now. Sorry to be so crass, but it is what it is. This league is a killer league and if you pussyfoot around in it, you will be DePaul, Seton Hall or St. John's in no time flat. At that point, your prospects for returning into anything remotely successful become a decade fix. One hopes and prays Cottingham, Wild and the powers that be understand this. This isn't the Atlantic 10, this isn't even the sorry Big Ten right now, this is the Big East with 12 legitimate teams every year and 4 more trying like hell to get into that club. MU can piss away the previous 9 years of momentum or they can sack up and go after someone that will not miss a beat.

Rarely in life do people or institutions get a chance to rectify major mistakes. MU in 1977 could have hired anyone they wanted, they didn't. They went safe and kept Hank Raymonds on board. Hank is a tremendous man, a great coach and did many wonderful things for MU. That being said, it wasn't the right hire and MU's decline was on it's way for more than a decade. Now, 30 years later, MU has gone to three straight NCAAs and has the talent to go back again next year. They have a highly regarded class coming in next year so is MU going to capitalize on this or piss it away again?

Here's what I wouldn't do. Don't get a large committee together. Committees are a bunch of people with too many opinions and too many egos trying to show who's got the biggest wanker in the room. Don't do it. Leads to massive leaks to the media, back stabbing and general BS. Plus there is no accountability...it's a feel good exercise and doesn't put anyone on the hook. The university decided to go with Cottingham so go with Cottingham...but I'd have Cords there as a two headed monster. I'm sure a search firm will be involved as well, and that always brings it's own level of nonsense but that's part of the game these days.

Here's also what I wouldn't do. Grant players permission to get out of their Letter of Intent. Players in theory sign with the coach, but in reality they sign with the school. Student athletes may not like that, but too bad. Cottingham MUST force the players to live by that LOI otherwise they can transfer on their own. It sucks for everyone, but that's life in DI.

Here's what I would do. Move quickly, but don't rush. Sounds counterintuitive...maybe. This weekend in San Antonio is an important weekend for this search and one has to think that MU better be all business down there getting something done.

My list of guys that will bring the same amount of national publicity to a small school in Wisconsin consistently year in and year out? None.

My list of guys that will bring the same amount of energy to the job in recruiting? Miller, Lavin, Bennett. Maybe Ford and Grant (VCU)

My list of guys that bring a sharper X's and O's approach then what we've had? Weber, Stallings, Altman, Brownwell.

My list of guys that are "hot coaches" but not assistants who could capture some imagination? Davis, Darrin Horn (just signed with USC), Rivers, Grant.

My list of guys that have the whole package and would actually come to Milwaukee from their current job................ Miller would be great but he's going to take the Pitt job in a few years. Bennett would be great but he's too loyal to give up on WSU after 2 years, if it was more than 5 then he might. I don't see a whole lot of others.


So here we are gang. MU made it's bed with Cottingham and we warned you the great unknown is if this situation came up, little did we know it was only 8 weeks or so away. Does he step up get it done or is this a classic screw-up that puts MU into the land of the abyss for the next decade.

Grow a pair MU, this is one of those situations that begs for it. GROW A DAMN PAIR! Have confidence and go after an established coach that wants to be here and who will do great things. GROW A PAIR!

Finally on Crean. Yeah, I was a supporter mostly because in the last 30 years I saw MU go through coach after coach with not much to show for it. Finally a guy was here for awhile and doing the right things. But, with my MU hat on I say....THANK YOU for 9 great years including one that is unforgettable, but don't let the door hit you where the good Lord split you....and with my IU hat I say "Tom, welcome to IU, if you think MU fans were tough wait until you see the pricks we have. Now's your chance, better get it done and in a hurry because the honeymoon won't last long. Welcome aboard....now clean up this mess!

New Marquette AD faces daunting task

Now that Tom Crean has cast his lot with the Indiana Hoosiers, Marquette faces the unenviable task of starting anew.

Steve Cottingham, Marquette's newly minted AD, will lead the effort to find a new head basketball coach just 36 days after taking over the reigns of an athletic department for the first time. Cottingham has never hired a coach before (a scenario which made Cracked Sidewalks ask "Why Cottingham" when he was originally announced). Cottingham now faces the daunting challenge of replacing the man who, along with strong support from the administration and alumni, rebuilt the Marquette program to heights only surpassed by the legendary Al McGuire.

Given MU's willingness to pay Tom Crean top-dollar to run the program, there's no reason to believe that the administration will pare back its commitment to maintaining a high level of success with the men's basketball program. In the past, Marquette University President Robert Wild has indicated that a successful men's basketball program is a key aspect of his overall strategy for the university. As long as Father Wild remains at MU, expect the Golden Eagles to invest in hoops.

Considering the administration's long-term commitment to hoops, Cottingham should have the resources to land a very desirable candidate. Of course, he'll need to because this hire will define his tenure at Marquette.

With first-class facilities, strong support from the administration, a large budget, a burgeoning fan base, expanded online coverage, and a strong roster of returning talent (we hope), the Marquette coaching job is as appealing as it's been in a long time. Now it's time to fill it with a candidate who can continue the momentum the program has built during the past nine seasons.

Steve Cottingham is on the clock.

......much more to come here on Cracked Sidewalks, check back often!

It's official: Crean is gone

Marquette confirms that Tom Crean is moving on:

Marquette University wishes Tom Crean, his wife Joani and the Crean family the very best as he pursues new professional opportunities. Tom and Joani have been an important part of our Marquette family for the past nine years, devoting countless hours not only to our men's basketball program but to other athletic and community endeavors as well.

Coach Crean has brought pride, honor and a winning mentality to our men's basketball program. It is no surprise that other universities would seek him out.

Coach Crean put Marquette back in the forefront of college basketball by embracing our strong tradition and building a competitive program for today. His tutelage resulted in three recent Marquette graduates earning NBA contracts. In his nine seasons, Marquette has averaged 20 wins a year, won a conference championship and made eight postseason appearances, including the 2003 Final Four and this year's second-round loss to Stanford. Since 2001, Crean has directed the Golden Eagles to 190 victories. He is a two-time recipient of the Ray Meyer Conference USA, NABC District XI and USBWA District V Coach of the Year awards, and in 2003 won the Coach Clair Bee Award as well as being named a finalist for the Naismith National Coach of the Year Award.

The basketball program Tom has built is strong, with talented players and staff and solid university support. We anticipate that a Marquette coaching vacancy will attract many well-qualified candidates. We look forward to continuing Marquette's winning legacy and to competing successfully at the highest national level.

April Fools? Crean to Indiana?

From ESPN.

And, no. This doesn't appear to be an April Fools Joke.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=3324439

Trying to put a tumultuous few months behind it, Indiana University is on
the verge of naming a new coach, Tom Crean of Marquette, a source with the
school told ESPN.com's Andy Katz on Tuesday.

The Hoosiers have to hope that the hiring goes more smoothly than the
awkward parting with former coach Kelvin Sampson.

Indiana is awaiting a letter of agreement from Crean before a deal is
finalized, and a tentative news conference has been scheduled for Wednesday to
make an announcement.

He resigned amid allegations of NCAA violations. Dan Dakich, an
assistant under Sampson and a former Indiana player and assistant under Bob
Knight, took over as interim coach for the rest of the season.

The university first contacted Washington State coach Tony Bennett late
Saturday night, but he withdrew from consideration.

Crean, who took the Dwyane Wade-led Golden Eagles to the Final Four in
2003, just completed a 25-10 season. Marquette lost to Stanford in the second
round of the NCAA tournament.

Crean is 190-96 in nine seasons at Marquette and has taken the Golden
Eagles to the NCAA tournament five times. Before that, he was an assistant at
Michigan State, Pittsburgh and Western Kentucky.

Remaking the Marquette roster

Building on our entry from last week about the enviable trajectory of Marquette hoops, today we'll look at recruiting -- and why the 2008 recruiting class offers an indication that Tom Crean is changing his approach to roster building.

The present roster, long on guards and short on skills at every other position, quickly established MU as an upper echelon Big East program. The formula is working but has its limitations, namely, the lack of productivity at non-backcourt positions. The unbalanced roster, while successful in putting a more than competitive team on the floor in the Big East, is not enough to break through to an elite level nationally.

The incoming class of 2008 might just change things for the better. Rather than overloading at one position or signing players with similar skills in the same class, the incoming talent 2008 -- combo guard Tyshawn Taylor, combo forward Joseph Fulce, center Chris Otule, and two-guard/swingman Nick Williams -- collectively can cover every position on the floor, and per scouting reports offer a range of complementary skills.

This group is a solid start on the journey to change the character of the roster which will allow MU to better compete for a Big East title, to get back to the Final Four, and to mitigate the annual cycle of off-season roster attrition (which, this year, could involve James and/or McNeal playing the game for a living next season).

As an aside, each of these players comes from winning programs - an underrated aspect of Crean's recruiting. Nick Williams will arrive on campus as the Alabama 6A player of the year, a two-time Final Four participant and a state champion. 6'10" Chris Otule will arrive as a guy who tripled his scoring average year to year, led his team to 24 wins and a first-ever playoff birth under the tutelage of legendary coach Ronnie Courtney. Tyshawn Taylor emerged as a go-to-guy on the nation's best high school team, the 32-0 St. Anthony's Friars. Finally, Joseph Fulce put up ridiculous numbers down at Tyler JC, leading his team to a national ranking all season long.

Building on the baseline of the balanced 2008 class, the 2009 group becomes the most critical class for Tom Crean since signing the Three Amigos. To date, Crean has not delivered strong recruiting classes in succession. One very good class is typically followed by a group that includes one productive starter and a few role players or worse (ie: Hayward, Acker, Cubillan and Blackledge following the Three Amigos), leaving the program vulnerable in the face of unexpected attrition or injury. To climb to the top of the Big East and beyond, MU needs to refill the stable with so-called studs more regularly.

A quick look at the MUScoop scholarship table reveals that the upper classmen on the 2009-2010 roster will be predominantly role players. Simply put, the 2009 freshman class is the difference between taking the program to another level, or continuing to cycle up and down as a productive class graduates, leaving behind a modestly talented roster.

At this point, Crean is off to a good start with the 2009 group. By securing a verbal from 6'7" forward Erik Williams (Cy Springs, TX), Marquette has its small forward of the future - always a position of need in the Crean era. Inking a productive big man such as 6'10" Kyle Rowley (Lake Forest Academy, IL) to go along with the highly coveted do-everything 6'7" Jamil Wilson from Racine, and a true point guard like Johnny Lacy (Milwaukee, Bay View) would complete a roster transformation that would create a higher ceiling for the program.

In addition, even though the 2008-2009 roster is already over-subscribed by one scholarship, Crean is still recruiting talent for this fall, fueling speculation that the current roster will undergo a rather substantial amount of additional attrition. Fox Sports is reporting that MU is in the top three (along with Ohio State and UVa) for former Indiana commit, point guard Terrell Holloway. Also, MU is pursuing 6'11" center Luka Mirkovic from La Lumiere School in La Porte, Ind. Mirkovic also is considering DePaul and Louisville.

We'll watch this space closely -- more roster churn appears to be on the way.

Four things to cheer you up...

Four things to cheer you up this weekend:

1. Davidson Beat Bucky

2. The Lopez twins are on the loser bus, just like the other 60 teams.

3. The Final Tom Crean Show on Time Warner Sports was fantastic. They've compressed all their Homer Interviews into one 5 minute Best of Homer spot:



4. Finally, here's our season, compressed into 5 minutes of goodness.

A look back with an eye on the future

Six days after the toughest post-season loss I can remember, the numbness still remains. Initially after the loss I figured time would quickly heal the wound, and I'd enthusiastically look forward to what is always an interesting off-season with MU -- not to mention the promise of next season.

Oh, if that could be so.

Truth is, the Stanford defeat was MU's most painful post-season loss since the 1978 upset to Miami (Ohio). This loss will ache for quite a while - - that's what happens when a program is flying high and has its wings clipped just before reaching new heights. And sure, there's been plenty of debate about how MU lost -- there's never a shortage of opinions about this team when they lose a close game. In watching the replay a couple of times this week on DVR, I have no complaints. MU's best player, and one of the hottest players in the country, had an open look at the end of regulation and another open look with a few seconds left in OT; neither shot fell. Despite that, it took an NBA lottery pick making a remarkable shot to beat MU -- a shot he released as he slid behind the backboard towards the baseline, out-of-bounds. In the end, MU came up short against a very good team.

Still, what the loss won't do is cloud the progress the Marquette program made during the 2007-2008 season. While the team did not demonstrate the kind of watershed breakthrough many expected, the trajectory of the program remains impressive, particularly given the strong core of returning talent and a balanced recruiting class arriving this fall.

Let's recap the highlights:

• 25-10 record, the third time a Crean-coached team reached that lofty wins plateau;
• MU won at Wisconsin;
• MU beat Notre Dame twice;
• For the first time, MU advanced to the Big East Tournament semifinals;
• MU advanced in the NCAA tournament;
• The emergence of Maurice Acker. Acker played his best ball in the last month of the season - a good sign for the long-term health of the program;
• Jerel McNeal. What can you say, he was extraordinary when his team needed him most;
• Dominic James. Folks will complain about his shooting -- which is abominable -- but James emerged as MU's top on-the-ball defender this year, and his better than 2:1 assist to turnover ratio is an indication of how much his overall game improved year to year;
• Trevor Mbakwe. I'm indifferent about Crean's decision to rip the redshirt off late in the season, but in a limited role Mbakwe appears to be the out-of-area rebounder MU has lacked for years, and plays bigger than his size;
• Lazar Hayward. More often than not, players improve the most between their freshman eand sophomore seasons. That was the case for Hayward, who's diverse offensive game and rebounding toughness were welcome sights on a team that once relied solely on its backcourt.

Now, let's recap a few of the underwhelming points from the season:

• Eleven Big East wins. While MU secured more Big East conference wins than ever before, the team also played more Big East games than ever before. Eleven wins is laudable but considering the veteran bunch MU returned this year, at least a dozen wins and competing for the Big East crown were more reasonable expectations;
• Roster limitations. Coming into the season with all of its key contributors returning, the sky appeared to be the limit for the Golden Eagles. However a redundant roster, the lack of skilled big men, and the absence of outside shooting continue to define this group. Crean's strategy of building an athletic roster of players with limited offensive diversification and a hunger for aggressive defense has proven to be a smart formula for keeping the program in the upper half of the Big East -- a major accomplishment. Despite this, there's a fear that the program will plateau at the present level unless that roster building approach is refined;
• Poor production from the seniors: Before the season started I was bullish on the team in part because of the return of two key seniors, Barro and Fitzgerald. My enthusiasm was misplaced. Unlike many of the seniors during TC's tenure, these guys failed to deliver in their final season much like Sanders, Townsend and Merritt struggled in lead roles for the 2003-2004 team. Barro, relegated to a reserve role for most of the campaign, struggled mightily in that new capacity. Even as a late-season starter, he never recaptured the promise he showed during his junior season. Fitz? Despite leading the nation in the dubious category of "fouling a shooter on a made basket", Fitzgerald rarely displayed the confidence of a senior in any aspect of his game. His inability to sink open shots or contribute consistently with a solid floor game greatly hindered the team;
• David Cubillan: He was my pick to struggle this year, and he followed suit. After his 13 point effort in the win against Pittsburgh in February, Cubillan became one of MU's most ineffective players in the last month of the season. Cubillan scored a combined 14 points in MU's last eleven games, shooting 16% from the field (5 for 31) amidst declining playing time. With the emergence of Maurice Acker, the impending arrival of Nick Williams and Tyshawn Taylor, as well as a healthier Scott Christopherson it is difficult to see Cubillan contributing to this team next season.
  

By any measure, the positives greatly outweigh the negatives and the state of the program is solid to great. This past season was a memorable ride. While there are areas where the program needs to demonstrate improvement -- specifically in recruiting a broader mix of skills -- the formula largely works, but is it enough going forward?

Coming up in the next couple of days we'll look at Crean's effort to remake the nature of the Marquette roster -- and what that could mean for the program. On to the offseason!

Post-season Numbers - Where are my turnovers?

(with a bonus McNeal is a stud edition)

Numbers for all five games of the post-season

When we look at the final numbers for the post-season, there are several interesting things to note. Unfortunately, the numbers do not say that we actually won our final game. First, our effective Field Goal % defense was worse than our opponents. However, our Offensive Rebounding percentage (OR%) was significantly better. Returning to the formula that worked in the non-conference part of the season, Marquette did an excellent job on the boards. Finally, our opponents didn't turn the ball over as much, and actually had an advantage over MU in this area.

What happened to the turnovers?

As we have covered in a previous post about turnovers and Marquette, a turnover rate above 20% for our opponents usually means we win. During the strong part of the last twelve games, Marquette was tremendous at forcing turnovers. However, this ability went away especially in the post-season. The graph above shows two trends. The first trend (line) shows our opponent's average turnover rate. Marquette's opponents were averaging a turnover rate well above 20%, which then slipped going into the post season.

The second trend (bar) shows our ability to influence turnovers. As an example, an opponent that usually averages 20% turnover rate but had a 25% turnover rate against Marquette would mean that Marquette influenced the turnover rate by 5%. This trend mimics the previous trend, but clearly highlights that Kentucky and Stanford did a better than normal job protecting the ball against Marquette.

Cracked Sidewalks wonders if this is particular to Marquette, or if teams in general just value the ball better in the NCAA tournament. If the latter, the implication is that an aggressive defense based on generating steals may be susceptible come tourney time.

But At least Offensive Rebounding came back strong

Offensive Rebounding for Marquette was an up and down affair during the season. There is no doubt, however, that it was one of the keys for our victories in the post-season. For Marquette to out-rebound Stanford shows just how well the team was doing in this area of play. After all, Stanford is one of the top rebounding teams in the country.

Individual Player Ratings - or McNeal is a Stud

Look, it's no secret that McNeal was a stud over the end of the season, but when we look at the numbers it really stands out. In the post-season, Marquette had a total of 10 net points, meaning that the final margin of all five games was MU +10. Jerel had a positive net point contribution of THIRTY FRICKING POINTS. Pretty much everyone else was either neutral or negative. David Cubillan, in particular, had a very rough end to the season.

Taking his game to the next level...

This graph shows exactly how McNeal took his game to the next level over the end of the season. James finished with the second most net points on the team, but McNeal just was incredible, with net positive contributions in every single game over the last twelve games. Well done, Jerel... well done.

Gloomy Video

Again, props to SoCalwarrior for shooting some footage. Filed under "sad but true."

2007 Recap, 2008 Predictions

Last season, after the MSU debacle, I wrote a post with a number of predictions, some funny, some realistic. Most came true. We're all in a funk right now, and for lack of something more substantive, let's review how I did:

The March 2007 post started out: "Ok, a few days have gone by, we're all still licking our wounds. Time to talk about the future." Ouch. Still applicable in March 2008.

1. 2007: I predict ...DJ will be on the team next year. And the "shooting slump" will be a distant memory. I predict he'll be better than he was Freshman year, and stay all 4 years at Marquette and be an Academic All-American. Mostly right. DJ was at MU and his shooting improved somewhat.
   
2. 2007: I predict one guy will leave the team, and one incoming recruit will not arrive. Half Credit. Saunders didn't make the team.
   
   
   
3. 2007: I predict Mr. Basketball Scott Christopherson will not red shirt. Bingo. Probably should have, though.
   
   
4. 2007: I predict TC will sign a juco guy this summer. For grins and chuckles only. Half Credit. Fulce may not be for G&C.
   
   
5. 2007: Last year, Marquette basketball fans raised over $1,300 for Al's Run. I predict we double that number next year. Sadly, not double, but $1645 isn't chump change.
   
   
6. 2007: We'll start the pre-season ranked about 15th. Close. Some services ranked us as high as 8th, others around 13-14.
   
   
7. 2007: I predict Mo Acker will be a fantastic addition to the team. I predict we'll sneak him on the court as a 6th man, being so short, no refs notice. -- But seriously, Mo will be a difference maker next year. Great defender, great 3 point shot, lightening quick. Pretty close. Mo hit a lot of big shots this year. I always pick an unsung guy, and Mo was my favorite player this year.
   
   
8. 2007: There'll be a bobblehead next year. I'll guess Jim McIllvane .. or maybe Al McGuire? My vote is for Joe Chapman. And I'm thinking the George Thompson bobblehead is two years away. Scratch that. The bobblehead will be Hank Raymonds. Oh, who am I kidding. There'll be another D. Wade bobblehead, belt buckle, voodoo doll, keychain, snowglobe, and/or t-shirt giveaway. "Wade Bucks," spendable at the concession stands, will drop from the Bradley Center ceiling. Not even close. No Bobblehead. 5 year Final Four paperweight.
   
   
9. 2007: I'll predict a Lazar Laser Pointer night giveaway .. hmm .. given out after the game. Close. How about them light sticks for the GTown game?
   
   
10. 2007: And someone else's number will be retired. Tony Smith is due. Wrong again.
    
    
11. 2007: I predict none of the incoming players will have 3, 11, 14, 15, 20, 24, 41, 43, 44, or 77 as their jersey number. For sure. No doubt about it. No brainer.
    
    
12. 2007: The Jesse White Tumblers will play half time this year. And those inflatable zoo animal guys. Can't remember what they were called. Zooropa or something? They'll be back. Half Credit. Zoomania came back at the GTown game.
    
    
13. 2007: MU will have its 3rd annual Haunted Hoops scrimmage again. Layup.
    
    
14. 2007: I'll guess Robert Jackson is some sort of assistant coach next year. I'll predict there'll be some interest for Todd Townsend at another program. Pure speculation, but he needs exposure to another system. Double-T was my favorite player years ago. All the other assistants will stay. Todd Townsend did go to Northeastern.
    
    
15. 2007: I'll predict our OOC home schedule contains more high interest games than last year's, including homers against UWM and UWGB and a mystery team. Izzo now owes Crean, so maybe MSU will come to the BC gratis? Added to 9 BE home games, the season ticket holders will be happier with the value. Partial Credit. UWM was a well attended game, but UWGB didn't happen, nor did any other high-interest OOC home game. With the 9 BE games, there were a boatload of high quality games at the BC this year.
    
    
16. 2007: I also predict there'll be a lot of complaints about the reseating process for season ticket holders, since it was announced it will be held at the Al, and not the Bradley Center where people can sit down and start their personal ass-groove. No surprise here.
    
    
17. 2007: I predict after 11 years of going to the Bradley Center, I will finally get on the jumbotron next season. Come on. My kid is very cute. Nope, but the old couple behind me got on the Kiss-Cam TWICE. So unfair.
    
    
18. 2007: I'll predict we win the Maui Invitational in November .. but lose to UW in Madison, extending their streak, and that Christmas will be canceled (again) because of the loss. Exactly wrong!
    
    
19. 2007: I predict 1290/1510AM will boost their power output. Or an angry mob will burn down their antenna tower. One or the other, not sure which. I predict "Antenna Night Giveaway" where all in attendance at the Bradley Center will receive a powerful AM radio antenna so they can listen to the post-game as they drive home. Partial credit. We're now on 540AM, which flipped the trouble. People inside the city get a poorer signal, those outside Milwaukee get a much better signal. Keep trying, ESPN Radio, keep trying.
    
    
20. 2007: And speaking of media, I predict there'll be a lot of complaints about ESPN's contract with the Big East. While every game will be "broadcast," a great number of games will be on ESPNU (satellite only) and herky-jerky ESPN360, which few receive. This did not happen, glad to say. MU had a great TV package this year.
    
    
21. 2007: I'll predict on a post-game show, Crean will say the crowd at the Bradley Center was phenomenal. This happened 42 times.
    
    
22. 2007: I predict the student section, after half don't show up for a "lesser" game, will be demoted to the "9th best Student Section in the Country." True dat. MU has a core group of ~1000 students that show up rain or shine, and ~3000 who only show up when they feel like it. Discouraging.
    
    
23. 2007: I predict one game there'll be an announcement that the crowd is the biggest in Wisconsin history. It happens every year. Partial Credit. A new record of 19,085 was set vs. GTown, but the announcement was not made because PuertoRicanNightmare complained about the announcement so much, MU didn't make it.
    
    
24. 2007: I predict Tom Crean will invite the Cracked Sidewalks team on a road game trip. (cough) SADLY, FALSE.
    
    
25. 2007: I'll predict no hand or wrist injuries to anyone on the team. There'll be a concussion or two, of course. There always is. Nope. DJ hurt his wrist.
    
    
26. 2007: I predict we'll go 12-6 in the Big East. 12-6 was close. I lowerered my expectations to 11-7 before the season began.
    
    
27. 2007: We'll get a better seed next year in the NCAAs, like a #3-4, win 1 game and lose in the 2nd round -- and that one of those games will be against another of Coach Crean's buddies, prompting 2,000 more stories about how tough it is to play against a friend. Very close. We bettered our seed by 2, did win one, lose the next. And the stories weren't about the Stanford Basketball Coach and Crean, it was about their Football Coach, Harbaugh, and Crean.

2008 Predictions:

1. DJ, Wes, and McNeal will all be back for their Senior year. Since we are over committed on scholarships, someone will have to leave. One could guess that Pat Hazel may want playing time at another university.
   
   
2. It wouldn't shock me if Buzz Williams got a head coaching gig somewhere. Didn't I read TCU was sniffing around? All the other coaches stay.
   
   
3. Another Former MU player will join the coaching staff, because it happens every year. What's Scott Merritt up to these days?
   
   
4. Mbakwe will get better. I don't see him exploding like Lazar did, though.
   
   
5. Scott Christoperson .. won't play many minutes in Big East play next year. While Scott may be our future long distance shooter, I can't see him getting quick enough to defend BE players.
   
   
6. Marquette will go 12-6 next year, 1-1 in the BET, 1-1 in the NCAAs. I think I've seen this movie before. While Fitz and Ooze will be missed the most, the incoming freshmen Fulce, Williams, Taylor, O'Tule will fill the gap, but they are freshmen on a team with 3 starting seniors.
   
   
7. It's going to be a long off-season.

Sorry for the lame predictions this year. Still gloomy from our Stanford loss.