The night before the NBA Draft - where does Ellenson go?

UPDATE;   Ellenson was picked 18th by the Detroit Pistons. DraftExpress had picked him 18th yesterday afternoon.  DraftExpress also predicted the Milwaukee Bucks would take Thon Maker at 10.






The NBA will conduct its annual draft tomorrow as 60 players from around the world will be selected for an opportunity to play in the NBA.  Marquette's Henry Ellenson is a sure fire first round pick, but whether he is a sure fire lottery pick now has some experts uncertain.  Last month we interviewed Jonathan Givony, founder of DraftExpress, for his predictions.  Since that meeting, DraftExpress has had Ellenson move up a bit, but recently slipping all the way to number 18.  They caution that the prediction ultimately could change based on a number of unknown variables, a trade, a team misses out on a "must have" player, a last minute piece of information that causes a player's stock to drop as we saw in the NFL draft this year.  Ellenson could go as high as 9 per the site.

Other publications have Ellenson also in the 7 to 21 range.  Several believe he will land locally with the Milwaukee Bucks and continue his presence in Cream City.  Regardless of where he is drafted, tomorrow night will be one of the most important days in his life and mark another draft choice from the Marquette basketball program.


Henry Ellenson NBA Draft Mock predictions

Sports Cheat Sheet pick 7 - Denver Nuggets
Forbes pick 8 - Sacramento Kings
CBS pick 9 - Toronto Raptors
WalterFootball  pick 9 - Toronto Raptors
Dick Vitale pick 9 - Toronto Raptors
NBA.com pick 10 - Milwaukee Bucks
Fox Sports pick 10 - Milwaukee Bucks
Draftsite pick 11 - Orlando Magic
Bleacher Report pick 12 - Utah Jazz
MyNBADraft  pick 12 - Utah Jazz
Chad Ford pick 13 - Phoenix Suns
SB Nation  pick 13 - Phoenix Suns
NBADraft.net pick 16 - Boston Celtics
Hoops Hype  pick 16 - Boston Celtics
Draft Express pick 18 - Detroit Pistons
Washington Post pick 21 - Atlanta Hawks

Podcast is in off season form

Well, it's the off season which means we are more unprepared and disorganized then ever but we have a good amount of topics to cover, so hopefully that makes up for it. We talk about non-basketball related Marquette topics before we remember we are a basketball podcast and then jump into the latest news first. We discuss Khalif Young and LG Gill deciding not to don the blue and gold next season. We debate whether it's a big deal, does it matter, is it a sign of weakness, and why people seem so anxious about some mid-tier recruits. We then talk about everybody's least favorite topic: was Wally cut and why. Basically it boils down to Phil is cold hearted and Joe has some sympathy but basically we should all move on. Since we do have a scholarship open, its worth talking about what the team should do with it. Then we transition to some schedule news that's been coming out in dribs and drabs and what that means for the non-conference season. Lastly we spend time talking about "The Tournament" which is something that Marquette basketball alum led by Dan Fitzgerald are trying to qualify for so they can go win $2 million. The potential team looks pretty good with a lot of fan favorites signed up. Hopefully it'll show up on tv somewhere so we can spend time analyzing it to no end. Link to vote for MU in The Tournament: https://www.thetournament.com/teams/golden-eagles-alumni-marquette-alumni?type=fan&f=570594e91a926927767547 Download this episode (right click and save)

Henry Ellenson's draft stock - An interview with DraftExpress founder Jonathan Givony

I was fortunate to spend a few minutes yesterday with Jonathan Givony, the founder of DraftExpress to discuss Henry Ellenson and the 2016 NBA draft.  Givony has been kind enough over the last four or five years to give his time to us as he has weighed in on MU draft hopefuls like Vander Blue, Jimmy Butler, Dominic James, Steve Novak and Wes Matthews.

Jonathan and his wife Rebecca just had a baby last week, so we kept the questions short and sweet.

Cracked Sidewalks:  Why do you have Henry at #9?  Earlier in the year you had him as high as 5 or 6.  Other mock draft sites and draft experts have Henry anywhere from 5 to 18.   That seems a pretty big range for someone that is considered a top ten pick.  What have you seen that puts him in that 9 or 10 spot at this point?

Jonathan Givony:  If you are top 10 pick, that's pretty good.  That shows how good we think he is, nothing negative.  We are always evaluating not just against yourself, but others in the draft class.  Other guys are stepping up, improving their draft stock, so some guys will move down when others move up.  There is a give and take.   

I would say some of it, if he were in the draft 5 years ago, there might be a little more excitement about him.  That 6'10" power forward who struggles on defense and doesn't really give you a lot of rim protection to be a full-time small ball center, there isn't as big of an appetite now for those guys now as there was 5 years ago for guys like that.  There is more of a trend moving toward guys that block shots, or more agile and mobile in terms of moving their feet and guarding on the perimeter. That isn't to say he can't get there.  I think he already made and improved substantially just off this year in college, the kid is 19 years old, so hard to say he can't continue to improve moving forward.

CS:  Does he have the athleticism at the NBA level to guard the type of guys he has to guard.  Secondly, does he have the shooting skills today to play on the outside, if needed?  Can he make the improvements there to be an outside threat

JG:  I think a lot of guys...there's not many 6'10 or 6"11" guys that start off where he is as a shooter, especially those that can do other things, too.  I think he will continue to improve there over time. He's not consistent right now, shoot's it a little flat, has a little extra motion going on. He's probably better in the mid-range spots than at the three.  He will get there, but you're not going to throw him into a NBA playoff game tomorrow and say go to make shots for me.  He's more like an all around scorer, but not necessarily a great shooter.

CS:  A general question about the draft and the NBDL.  Seems like the last few years a rather large number of draft picks have been sent down to the D-League to work on their game as opposed to say 5 years ago.  Do you see this as a potential option for Ellenson...I know that is difficult to answer without knowing who is going to draft him.

JG:   The NBA has become a lot more closely with the D-League, adding their own franchises.  Teams understand they need to invest in it, more money into scouting, coaching staffs, facilities and such.  It's really no longer a negative to send a guy down to the D-League at all.  You're giving them extra reps with an extension of your coaching staff, put them in real games, real situations, and help them work on the things you want them to improve on.  A lot of the best teams in the NBA utilize the D-League really well.  The Spurs, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Toronto, and others are very invested.  That's the difference between now and 5 years ago.  They may not have seen the value, but the D-League has become so much more serious, more professional and a good place to develop young players.

CS:   Final question.  Final prognostication.  If you were to think 10 to 12 years down the road, is Henry a future all-star or more of a 12 and 6 type guy.  One of the criticisms that we have heard some Marquette fans or basketball fans in general state that he is already closer to his ceiling than others.  Perhaps not as much upside is the argument.  Would you agree or disagree with that assertion?

JG:  Maybe he is closer to his ceiling because he is already a really really polished player at age 19, and I don't think that's not something you want to hold against him.  While other guys are only now getting into shape for the pre-draft process, he transformed his body 2 years ago.  He took this seriously for a longer time isn't something you hold against him.  At the same time, he's only 19 years old.  If you look at the NBA playoffs now, there are so many guys who are big time impact players and if you look back and say what were these guys like at age 19 and they were really nothing.  I think he has a chance to be really really good, especially if he becomes a better shooter and as he becomes more serious about playing defense.  I wouldn't project him as an all-star.  There's only a couple of those in every draft class, but I do think he has a chance to be a starter in the NBA.  

That was the end of our questions, short and sweet this time.  Perhaps we'll do a post draft recap with Jonathan as a follow-up.  

The NBA draft takes place on June 23.

Seasons over and changes are coming....now what?

We put a couple of weeks between us and the end of the Marquette season, and now we're ready to talk about it. Be prepared, this is a far ranging and deep conversation on all things Marquette basketball (not to mention an hour long). First welcome Markus Howard to the Marquette family! We start with a brief recap of the end of the season and what we took away from the season overall. We then spend some time commiserating over the lack of a post season and the impact on the future that might have. The much maligned schedule is discussed and how it ultimately impacted Marquette's season and post season opportunities. This conversation leads to a very deep dive into the possibility of a Big East expansion that surfaced over the last couple of weeks. After getting the general topics out of the way we got to the main focus right now: Henry Ellenson leaving (we assumed but since confirmed), what the team needs, and Markus Howard. We also spent a little time talking about the future and where the team goes next year. Overall, drawing one season to a close and getting everything tucked away in the podcast so we can settle in to the summer hibernation that is Marquette basketball. Download this episode (right click and save)

JJJ Surges; Remembering Beating Nasty Big East Turned ACC Team; New Big East to New Heights Without Stars

Reflections on Marquette's past March battles with the former nasty Big East opponent still alive this year and the fact that the current Big East team representing one of the top three conferences - but a conference with no stars.

JuJuan Johnson was one of the biggest breakthroughs, surging to join Henry Ellenson and Luke Fischer among the top 30 Big East players in the Value Add rankings listed below.

Daniel Ochefu overcame injury to make Villanova the only team in the country with four top 100 players - and that quartet is in the Final Four. The Big East, Big 12 and ACC are the top three conferences based on www.kenpom.com, and are the only three with teams in the Final Four as well as the only three with a winning record in the NCAA tournament, so how can the other two conferences have 10 players rated higher in Value Add than any Big East player?

Yes, Syracuse roughed MU up in the last NCAA match-up, but that memory is eclipsed by DJO and Crowder hitting the consecutive three-pointers in Cleveland to send them home.

This year while the Big East had two stars is you go by likely NBA potential. But our own Henry Ellenson was too inconsistent as most freshman are to be a superstar this year (275th final ranking of 4000+ players).

Which begs the question, "What about Kris Dunn?"

Kris is my favorite non-Marquette player - a great kid when I interviewed him at the Big East tournament  last year where he talked about his trust in God, and he will be a great NBA player. He was my preseason National Player of the Year, and I am thrilled the AP selected him as a 2nd Team All-American. However, he dropped to 74th in Value Add and I dropped him to 5th team All-American.

When you really crunch the numbers, Dunn just did not live up to his projected value for one reason - he couldn't stay on the court. Obviously missing some games with the flu is tough. But Dunn just couldn't resist reaching fouls that really hurt Providence by forcing him to sit.

The team barely survived Illinois, USC and Arizona despite Dunn missing more than 14 minutes a game due to foul trouble. He has at least four fouls and averaged missing 10 minutes in two losses to Seton Hall and Michigan State, and if he was on the court to keep them in those games and pull one out then Providence may have improved from an 8-seed and avoided UNC in the second round.

Once they played UNC, he was once again brilliant while on the court - 29 points in 26 minutes - but if Providence could have pulled ahead in the first half while Dunn was sitting on the bench with fouls they might have had a chance. So on the court, no one is better - but resisting those cheap fouls might have given the Big East an additional Sweet 16 team in what is nonetheless a great year.

Season Rank	Player	Team	Class	Total Pts/Gm Value	NBA%
37	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	2 So	7.69	80%
74	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	3 Jr	6.78	94%
81	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	4 Sr	6.71	17%
87	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	2 So	6.61
99	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	4 Sr	6.49	11%
102	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	3 Jr	6.47	36%
110	Jenkins, Kris 2	Villanova	3 Jr	6.32
114	Whitehead, Isaiah 15	Seton Hall	2 So	6.26	32%
115	Bluiett, Trevon 5	Xavier	2 So	6.26	36%
171	Ochefu, Daniel 23	Villanova	4 Sr	5.72	20%
200	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	Creighton	4 Sr	5.54
225	Farr, James 2	Xavier	4 Sr	5.27
233	Jones, Roosevelt 21	Butler	4 Sr	5.21
265	Dunham, Kellen 24	Butler	4 Sr	4.98	25%
272	Carrington, Khadeen 0	Seton Hall	2 So	4.93
275	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	1 Fr	4.91	91%
291	Delgado, Angel 31	Seton Hall	2 So	4.81	26%
296	Henry, Myke 4	DePaul	4 Sr	4.79
298	Martin, Kelan 30	Butler	2 So	4.78	16%
331	Davis, Myles 15	Xavier	3 Jr	4.59
360	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	3 Jr	4.45	35%
370	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	Butler	3 Jr	4.42
374	Macura, JP 55	Xavier	2 So	4.42
400	Peak, LJ 0	Georgetown	2 So	4.27	24%
430	Wideman, Tyler 4	Butler	2 So	4.17
468	Watson, Maurice 10	Creighton	3 Jr	3.96	16%
470	Huff, Cole 13	Creighton	3 Jr	3.95
515	Zierden, Isaiah 21	Creighton	3 Jr	3.82
523	Bridges, Mikal 25	Villanova	1 Fr	3.79	18%
524	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	3 Jr	3.79	21%

Nova Hopes to Add to Big East Breakthrough Tournament

Butler and Xavier could have made it an incredible tournament for the Big East, but this is still a strong one for the conference. As I just posted on Breitbart, the Big East is one of only three conferences with a winning record even if Nova loses tonight. When you look at the disappointments of the first two tournaments of the new Big East, this may be the breakthrough year.

If we have a few upsets, there could even be a reunion of the old Big East in the Final Four with Nova, Notre Dame and Syracuse winning. Pomeroy gives Nova a slightly better than 50-50 chance, but only a 2% chance of all three of those winning.

Former MU asst coach, Trey Schwab, has passed away

I was saddened to learn that Trey Schwab passed away today.  He had been fighting for his life while waiting for another lung transplant, but had been in touch via social media with many of us over the years and last few months.  

A wonderful man, so genuine to the core.  Not a nicer person that you could ever meet.  He would call me in my early days at DIRECTV to get the MU basketball team hooked up with satellite on the road, so he could scout various games as a member of Tom Crean's staff.  It was always good to catch up with Trey, get his two cents on the team and the prospects for success on the court.

When it was learned he would need a transplant, the MU and UW communities responded.  He underwent double lung transplant surgery and suffered a heart attack while recovering.  That would be only the beginning as a major blood clot left him dead on an operating table for 40 minutes, with no pulse.  Somehow he survived....and thrived.  

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/saraceno/2004-03-25-marquette-schwab_x.htm

After coaching, he spent the last 11 years working for the Donate Life Wisconsin, where the state finally had an official organ registry program in 2010, thanks in large part to Trey's efforts.

Fox 6 News in Milwaukee had recently done an interview with Trey by MU's own Tim Van Vooren

http://fox6now.com/2016/03/20/trey-schwab-a-familiar-face-to-marquette-university-basketball-fans-has-passed-away/

A few articles we wrote about Trey over the years on Cracked Sidewalks.  

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2013/02/the-gift-of-lifetrey-schwab9-years-later.html

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2005/08/mu-news-and-notes.html

RIP Trey

Your friend, JD

Dunn Delivers Huge for Marquette and Big East after Failing to Beat MU

Thank you to my Breitbart Sports Preseason Player of the Year, Kris Dunn for delivering for my bracket but most importantly for the Big East. With Seton Hall looking for oxygen in Denver, it looked like the conference might take a double hit before the team that Marquette swept rallied late for a huge win.

I know we are down about Marquette not still playing, but really the long-term success if more dependent on the Big East's performance this year. Here was my recap of the opening day and what credentials helped, or did not seem to help, teams get over the top. (see also "Kris Dunn Leads Breitbart Sports All-American Team")

Seton Hall Kept Ball from MU Bigs, Now They Get Gonzaga and Utah

Another season without post season play, and in fact I did not have MU anywhere close to an NIT bid. However, the future looks bright assuming the Big East can break through with a couple of big NCAA wins this year. I believe the Midwest offers the best hope, and in the brackets and analysis  I published today I see the Seton Hall team that handled MU's big team so well having the potential to do the same with a match-up against both Gonzaga and Utah.

Gonzaga may have the best front line in the country, and Utah has the best center. However, Seton Hall showed how they could pressure the ball to keep MU from getting the ball into our twin towers. Two wins by Seton Hall would finally give the Big East a nice story line at tournament time. Butler also might be the team that could frustrate UVa for a huge upset.

Certainly we can watch Villanova and the rest, but here is the Midwest:

Ellenson 2nd Team All-BE, Fischer 3rd Team, JJJ Surging

Henry Ellenson, Luke Fischer and JaJuan Johnson combined to hit 49 of 63 two-point shots the last three game of the season (78%). The performances were enough to propel Ellenson to 2nd Team All-Big East in the just released list here, with Fischer just missing the list. Fischer's 15 of 17 during that span left him ranked as the 117th most valuable player in basketball at Value Add, while JJJ is one of the most improved players in the country moving up to 433rd in the past month of more than 4000 players.

The Breitbart All-American list proved prophetic in 2013, 2014 and 2015, and is being released this morning for the 2016 season. Like the All-Conference lists, it is based on a combination of the Value Add calculation of the point value each player has to his team and his NBA potential, as well as subjective awards for Conference and National Players of the Week and the running CBS Sports rankings. The 32 All-Conference teams are released at the same time here and the top three teams are listed below:

Player	1st Team All-Big East	Ht	Class	VA	NBA%	Subj
Dunn, Kris	Providence	6' 4"	Jr	5.93	94%	2.96
Whitehead, Isaiah	Seton Hall	6' 4"	So	5.71	32%	1.85
Bluiett, Trevon	Xavier	6' 6"	So	5.03	36%	2.59
Bentil, Ben	Providence	6' 9"	So	7.30	8%	3.63
Hart, Josh	Villanova	6' 5"	Jr	6.37	36%
Player	2nd Team All-Big East	Ht	Class	VA	NBA%	Subj
Watson, Maurice	Creighton	5' 10"	Jr	3.75	16%
Arcidiacono, Ryan	Villanova	6' 3"	Sr	5.03	11%
Jones, Roosevelt	Butler	6' 4"	Sr	5.14
Ochefu, Daniel	Villanova	6' 11"	Sr	5.15	20%
Ellenson, Henry	Marquette	6' 11"	Fr	4.56	91%	3.59
Player	3rd Team All-Big East	Ht	Class	VA	NBA%	Subj
Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes	Georgetown	6' 3"	Sr	5.93	17%
Jenkins, Kris	Villanova	6' 6"	Jr	4.97
Rodriguez, Desi	Seton Hall	6' 6"	So	5.50
Fischer, Luke	Marquette	6' 11"	Jr	5.58	35%
Martin, Kelan	Butler	6' 6"	So	4.29	16%

If JJJ gets more minutes and Fischer stays out of foul trouble to give Ellenson support, MU could be a tough out in the Big East tournament. With JJJ and Fischer on the bench for large periods wins will be tough. Traci Carter is now in the top 1% of all players in assist rate at www.kenpom.com, and Carter and JJJ are one of only 11 duos in college basketball to combine to steal the ball more than 7% of opponents' trips when they are on the floor, while Haanif Cheatham and Duane Wilson need to hit some three-pointers to open driving lanes.

The regular season is over, now what?

Marquette's 99th regular season campaign has drawn to a close and we are left with the question now what. We discuss the deflating Butler game, officiating, Henry's health and why that was such difficult loss from a post season standpoint. We also discuss the Georgetown result, the excitement of which feels long ago, but we do talk a little Traci Carter and how significant his improvement has been. We then talk post season, first the Big East tournament hopes and then what the NIT prospects are when the likely happens and Marquette doesn't win the whole Big East tournament. Finally, we wrap up with another pitch for the great #mubb tshirt that is being sold for a great cause, link is here: https://www.booster.com/mubb-support-for-als-run Download this episode (right click and save)

Critics Get a Clue: Buzz and Crean 2 of Top Coaches in Country

Don't look now, but the haters of the last two Marquette coaches are having a bad year.

As I keep up with my running total of the bid chances for all 351 teams, I suddenly realized Virginia Tech had a bye in the ACC tournament and was up to 67th at www.kenpom.com. What? Weren't we all in shock when Alabama State of the SWAC started the season by going into Va Tech to stun Buzz and the Hokies?

Suddenly Virginia Tech has won five straight games to close out the ACC season and earn the buy as the 6th seed. No one expects them to win, but their most likely path would be to beat Florida State and Miami - both of which they beat by double digits during the current five game winning streak - to play a UVa team they beat once this year in the ACC semifinal.

The arrows directed at Buzz despite an unheard of three straight Sweet 16s at Marquette are unwarranted - that almost never happens and we will very likely never see it again despite my hopes for a great future at MU.

Then there is Tom Crean, who has clinched a Big Ten title. There was some glee in some MU circles on the "Tom Crean is on the hotseat" reports after the blow out loss at Duke early this season but guess what - the coach of Indiana is always on the hot seat. You cannot question the ability of a coach that is playing the final game of the season having already won the Big Ten regular season title.

We have a great coach and kudos to Marquette for the wonderful hiring of Steve Wojciechowski and making MU a part of the incredible effort to get the new Big East the Fox Sports deal that has us on TV almost every game and playing in Madison Square Garden.

But as soon as a new regime comes in - whether it is a coach or a CEO of a company - everyone starts telling a new story of how terrible the past regime really was and the gross incompetence that the team or company somehow survived.

Get a clue.

No Tom Crean, no Dwyane Wade. No Wade, and no Final Four run and in turn invitation to the Big East. We needed a sales prep to make Marquette basketball relevant again and he did.

No Buzz Williams and MU gets one final year of the Three Amigos and then the program goes second tier. Call me the next time MU makes three straight Sweet 16s. That just doesn't happen.

Wojo will be great too - but we were very lucky to have the last two.

Big East Fans Rooting for Butler over Marquette at Tip-Off

In a piece this morning for Breitbart I graded the bid chances of all 351 teams with Seton Hall, Providence and Butler as teams that likely just needed to avoid an upset to a lower team today to wrap up a bid.

I hate to say it, but for Big East fans, a Marquette loss probably locks five Big East teams into the tournament, with a chance to get a sixth team if one of the "have nots" make a surprise UConn like run through the tournament.

Obviously I want MU to pull out the huge upset and would love Creighton to lose to give MU momentum and the fifth seed in the Big East tournament to have the best chance at that UConn type run.

Right now the top four seeds are set with Providence's just completed win - so I have all four of those teams rated as a "B" - in the tournament. (Not all agree, but I can't see any of them missing based on a first round loss in the conference tournament. Marquette and four others are a "E" meaning only a tournament win gets us in. The problem for Big East fans is that Butler is a C+ meaning probably in but a loss to MU that dropped them to a 7-seed and then a loss to St. John's in the opening round of the Big East could well leave them out on Selection Sunday.

Oh well, I root for the conference unless it hurts Marquette. Go Warriors, and hopefully after we upset Butler they can win a conference tournament game or two and make it six teams along with Big East Tournament champions Marquette after our wins over Providence, Nova and Xavier next week!

1. Nova 16-2

2. Xavier 13-4

3. Seton Hall 12-6

4. Providence 10-8

5th through 7th

Creighton 9-8

Butler 9-8

Marquette 8-9 (with tie-breaker in a 2-way or 3-way)

8. Georgetown 7-11

9. DePaul 3-15

10. St. John's 1-17

Duke North? Ellenson Could Put MU Behind only Duke

A couple of notes on my piece in Breitbart Sports today. First, it is amazing how efficient Duke players are year in and year out at www.valueaddbasketball.com, and I saw some of the fundamentals in non-conference play and more recently that I believe play out at a higher level as freshman turn to sophomores. So if Wojo is building "Duke North" I will take it along with all the haters who could come with it.

Second, while Duke dominates the historic database going back to 2003 including six top 5 players, note in the verbage below that Marquette is one of only four other teams with three such players. We have been spoiled by Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder - and it is quite possible that if Henry Ellenson did decide to stay for one more year he could be the fourth top five player for MU. His shot from outside the top 1000 in the early season to 270th today bodes well for the typically huge sophomore jump great players have.

Good effort, but Villanova is just too good

Welcome to a live edition of Scrambled Eggs Podcast! With Joe McCann in town, we decided to record a live podcast, which really just means less work for us but still fun. We talk the week that was for Marquette basketball, a hard fought win over Creighton and a tough loss to a really good Villanova team. We talk about the atmosphere for the Villanova game and what we thought of the game. After some time talking about the tough loss, we talk about closing out the season strong. Marquette has two regular season games left to try and position themselves as positively as possible for the Big East tournament. There are multiple scenarios but Marquette can finish anywhere from 8th to 5th in the final standings. So we talk about what the various scenarios result in. We also talk about honoring Henry at the Georgetown game, we don't know it's his last game at home in a Marquette uniform but we aren't holding our breath. Lastly, we talk about a fun fundraiser that the Marquette social media folks put together on a whim. A t-shirt was created with social media in mind and we decided to use it to fundraise for Al's Run. Here is the link to buy a t-shirt, with all proceeds going to Children's Hospital: https://www.booster.com/mubb-support-for-als-run?ref=copy-link_misc_mobile-campaign-page-share&utm_campaign=mobile-campaign-page-share&utm_content=mubb-support-for-als-run&utm_medium=misc&utm_source=copy-link Get a t-shirt and enjoy the last week of regular season basketball! Download this episode (right click and save)

Yes, MU Can Beat a No. 1 Saturday and Make Tournament

Just before Christmas I calculated the Sagarin numbers gave MU a 3.2% chance of getting the 23 wins they needed to make the NCAA tournament. I was pretty brutal on us having no chance at Villanova despite the win at Providence.

Now MU has a chance to not only beat a No. 1 ranked team for the only time except for Wade vs. Kentucky, but to then win three more games and sneak in with a bid.

Going back to Sagarin, MU's result last night was what we would expect out of the No. 7 team in the country. To determine a Sagarin rating just for one game you take the venue (+3 for MU on the road tonight), add the opponent's Sagarin rating (83 for Creighton to get to 86), then add or subtract the victory or loss margin (+5 for the 66-61 win for Creighton) and Marquette's total 91 Sagarin Rating would make MU the seventh best team in the country.

Here is the trick - Villanova is only one better at 92, so if MU played as well as they did last night on Saturday with the three-point home court advantage and Villanova plays an average game for them- MU wins by two points.

The first rub here is the MU has to repeat it's best performance of the year, and the only other time they were close was their 89 Sagarin rating for the win at Wisconsin. The 88 for DePaul looks close, but at www.valueaddbasketball.com Billy Garrett is worth four points a game, so that is really about an "84" for the win at DePaul.

The second rub is that MU is the rare team that so far has played better away from home than at home. MU averages an 82.1 away from the Bradley Center which would make MU the 50th best team in the country. In games at the Bradley Center (throwing out the cupcakes ranked lower than St. John's) MU's averaging Sagarin Ranking is 72.4, which would make them only the 148th best team in the country. Can MU repeat tonight and do it at home. Here are the Sagarin scores from best to worst both at home and on the road. In the home losses to Iowa and Seton Hall, MU played like the 319th best team in the country.

Elsewhere	Res	Ven	Opp	Score	Allow	Rank (82.1, 50th)
Creighton	W	3	83	66	61	91
Wisconsin	W	3	84	57	55	89
DePaul	W	3	72	73	60	88
Providence	W	3	82	65	64	86
Arizona St.	W	0	80	78	73	85
Xavier	L	3	89	82	90	84
LSU	W	0	79	81	80	80
Villanova	L	3	92	68	83	80
St. John's	W	3	69	78	73	77
Georgetown	L	3	80	70	80	73
Seton Hall	L	3	84	62	79	70
Bradley	Res	Ven	Opp	Score	Allow	Rank (72.4, 148th)
Butler	W	-3	85	75	69	88
Providence	W	-3	82	96	91	84
Xavier	L	-3	89	66	74	78
Creighton	L	-3	83	62	65	77
St. John's	W	-3	69	81	75	72
Belmont	L	-3	75	80	83	69
IUPUI	W	-3	68	75	71	69
DePaul	L	-3	72	56	57	68
Seton Hall	L	-3	84	63	83	61
Iowa	L	-3	89	61	89	58

Now we get to the Value Add match-ups. I included the players from each Big East team that have a chance at the NBA and/or improve their team by at least two points. Obviously Villanova's overall Value Add is much better than MU's - only Michigan State with Valentine playing ranks higher.

But once again, Villanova does not have those couple of dominating players that you would normally face in a No. 1 team - the guys who can just dominate you. Josh Hart is their highest ranked player at 60th, and he has about the same chance of making the NBA as Luke Fischer does.

So while Villanova has the four highest Value Add rankings on the court, none are near All-American level and in fact the MU has the best player on the court and Fischer might be the second best.

Yes, there is one huge issue - MU's turnovers and Nova's ability to force turnovers. MU could get obliterated into 20 turnovers, but if Henry can help get the ball up there is are nice mismatches near the hoop.

So yes, Saturday history could be made for a win over a team that is No. 1 and if that is accomplished the possibility of winning vs. Georgetown, at Butler and a win as a 4-seed against Butler or Providence in the Big East tournament is real.

At that point, MU finishes 22-11 with an RPI of 71 even assuming a second round loss to a No. 1 seed Xavier or Villanova. I said at Christmas we needed 23 wins one way or the other, but 22 wins on a resume that includes winning six of the last seven including a win over a No. 1, roughly a 6-6 record against the RPI top 50 (Butler and Providence are borderline, so it could be 8-6 to 3-6) and finishing in the top four of one of the top RPI conferences would make MU a late addition on Selection Sunday.

Winning six in a row is rare in basketball, but with two down and the toughest one of the six Saturday, we have a chance.

Rank	NBA prosp or Value 2+	Team	Pos	Value Add	NBA%
272	Fischer, Luke 40	Marquette	C	4.46	35%
308	Ellenson, Henry 13	Marquette	PF	4.25	91%
862	Johnson, JaJuan 23	Marquette	SF	2.46	21%
932	Cohen, Sandy 5	Marquette	SG	2.3
957	Wilson, Duane 1	Marquette	PG	2.25
1099	Cheatham, Haanif 25	Marquette	SG	1.95	16%
60	Hart, Josh 3	Villanova	PF	6.44	36%
154	Arcidiacono, Ryan 15	Villanova	PG	5.32	11%
174	Ochefu, Daniel 23	Villanova	C	5.18	20%
239	Jenkins, Kris 2	Villanova	SG	4.58
460	Bridges, Mikal 25	Villanova	PF	3.66	18%
660	Brunson, Jalen 1	Villanova	PG	3.01	33%
1011	Reynolds, Darryl 45	Villanova	PF	2.14
1423	Booth, Phil 5	Villanova	PG	1.34	26%
153	Jones, Roosevelt 21	Butler	SG	5.34
271	Martin, Kelan 30	Butler	C	4.47	16%
329	Dunham, Kellen 24	Butler	SG	4.15	25%
429	Chrabascz, Andrew 45	Butler	SG	3.75
497	Wideman, Tyler 4	Butler	C	3.54
292	Groselle, Geoffrey 41	Creighton	C	4.35
293	Watson, Maurice 10	Creighton	PG	4.34	16%
319	Zierden, Isaiah 21	Creighton	SG	4.2
788	Huff, Cole 13	Creighton	C	2.62
858	Hanson, Zach 40	Creighton	C	2.47
984	Thomas, Khyri 2	Creighton	PF	2.18
231	Henry, Myke 4	DePaul	PF	4.62
383	Garrett, Billy 5	DePaul	PG	3.92
813	Hamilton, Tommy 2	DePaul	C	2.57	28%
66	Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4	Georgetown	PG	6.3	17%
554	Peak, LJ 0	Georgetown	SG	3.33	24%
823	Copeland, Isaac 11	Georgetown	PF	2.56	35%
947	Hayes, Bradley 42	Georgetown	C	2.27
991	Govan, Jessie 15	Georgetown	PF	2.17	35%
1216	Derrickson, Marcus 24	Georgetown	SF	1.68	18%
9999	White, Paul 13	Georgetown	SF	0	29%
42	Bentil, Ben 0	Providence	PF	6.91	8%
54	Dunn, Kris 3	Providence	PG	6.52	94%
525	Bullock, Rodney 5	Providence	C	3.44
137	Rodriguez, Desi 20	Seton Hall	SF	5.49
270	Whitehead, Isaiah 15	Seton Hall	PG	4.47	32%
304	Delgado, Angel 31	Seton Hall	C	4.28	26%
377	Carrington, Khadeen 0	Seton Hall	SG	3.94
709	Sanogo, Ismael 14	Seton Hall	PF	2.89
1258	Sima, Yankuba 35	St. John's	PF	1.62	25%
158	Bluiett, Trevon 5	Xavier	SF	5.29	36%
267	Farr, James 2	Xavier	C	4.48
335	Davis, Myles 15	Xavier	PG	4.13
349	Macura, JP 55	Xavier	PG	4.06
535	Sumner, Edmond 4	Xavier	PG	3.38	21%
691	Reynolds, Jalen 1	Xavier	C	2.94	35%

Marquette is still young, and still maddeningly inconsistent

Marquette had a week off so we decided to take advantage and really process the Creighton and Providence game. That's mostly an excuse for our laziness, but we are going to talk a lot about the Creighton and Providence games. One of the first things we talk about is Coach Wojchiekowski's post game presser after Creighton, you can listen here: So after listening to Wojo we're wondering, has he lost this team? How does a team just not run a play at all that a coach draws up? Is this just more youth showing? We then talk, yet again, about youthful mistakes the team is making, but point out that the total mistakes (TOs) are going down, they are just being made at very inopportune times. We then talk about the last 5 games of the season and focus on the next 3 especially. Bottom line, DON'T LOSE TO DEPAUL AGAIN! And we need to win at least one or two more to make the NIT. We wrap up with some talk about recruiting as well as Steve Novak, who has taken one elite skill and turned it into a 10 year, $20 mil career. Enjoy, and don't lose to DePaul! Download this episode (right click and save)

Two tough loses but not all is lost

Another week of #mubb product and another week of two loses with silver linings. In this episode of the podcast we discuss the Seton Hall and Xavier games and what we took away from them. We do spend some time on negativity island especially around turnovers and why they keep happening at such an alarming rate. We then take a ferry to things aren't too bad harbor where we talk about the offensive success of the team and Jajuan Johnson turning into good Jajuan Johnson. We then look ahead to the rest of the conference season but especially the next three games and what it'll take for Marquette to get some wins. Two home games this week including a rare night game against an unexpectedly decent Creighton, gotta come away with at least one win. Do they have it in them? Download this episode (right click and save)

Fischer, JJJ or Cheatham Could Join Ellenson in NBA to keep MU in Top 15 NBA Factories

Value Add updated the chance of players making the NBA last night, and the odds are that at least one of three players - Luke Fischer (35%), JuJuan Johnson (21%) and/or Haanif Cheatham (16%) will join Henry Ellenson in the NBA one day. Since 2003, MU has averaged having 2.5 future NBA players on each roster - the 15th best total in the country.

In the days ahead we will be updating the historic database to indicate the last year each player appeared in the NBA. One interesting note in building this database is that steals were not as big a predictor as in the past, while rebounding, blocked shots, two-point shots and the ability to get to the line all separate future NBA players from the very good college players that do NOT make the NBA:

Average Player Performance 2003-2016	OR%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%	FTRate	2-pt %
1500 top players who did not make NBA	3.46	11.10	0.86	2.23	36.35	47%
Possible players	6.97	14.83	3.17	1.82	42.37	51%
Future NBA average	7.08	14.74	3.08	2.17	42.09	51%
NBA Center	11.62	19.81	6.86	1.61	51.65	55%
NBA PF	9.60	17.95	3.99	1.83	44.11	53%
NBA PG	2.80	9.57	0.76	2.76	39.42	48%
NBA SF	7.01	14.80	2.66	2.09	38.90	51%
NBA SG	4.68	11.91	1.36	2.54	36.91	49%

The 1500 seasons in which a player was on the court a bit more than 80% of the time but did NOT ultimately make the NBA, resulted in the average percentages on the top line.

MU is credited for 1.63 future NBA players on the current roster (adding the percent chance each player makes it), while last year's team is credited for 0.56 with Fischer and Johnson on that team as well. If Matt Carlino were to make the jump it would add a player to 2015.

As we go back earlier, we see that MU's 2011 team had FIVE future NBA players, though only Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler played more than a few games. The first year in the database, the 2003 Final Four team, featured only three future NBA players, but all three had extended careers.

	College Yr	NBA Last Year or %
Ellenson, Henry 13	2016	91%
Fischer, Luke 40	2016	35%
Johnson, JaJuan 23	2016	21%
Cheatham, Haanif 25	2016	16%
Total estimated 2016 team		1.63
Fischer, Luke 40	2015	35%
Johnson, JaJuan 23	2015	21%
Total estimated 2015 team		0.56
Crowder, Jae 32	2012	2016
Butler, Jimmy 33	2011	2016
Crowder, Jae 32	2011	2016
Butler, Jimmy 33	2010	2016
Butler, Jimmy 33	2009	2016
Matthews, Wesley 23	2009	2016
Matthews, Wesley 23	2008	2016
Matthews, Wesley 23	2007	2016
Novak, Steve	2006	2016
Matthews, Wesley	2006	2016
Novak, Steve	2005	2016
Novak, Steve	2004	2016
Wade, Dwyane	2003	2016
Novak, Steve	2003	2016
Blue, Vander 13	2013	2015
Blue, Vander 2	2012	2015
Blue, Vander 2	2011	2015
Buycks, Dwight 23	2011	2015
Buycks, Dwight 23	2010	2015
McNeal, Jerel 22	2009	2015
McNeal, Jerel 22	2008	2015
McNeal, Jerel 22	2007	2015
McNeal, Jerel	2006	2015
Johnson-Odom, Darius 1	2012	2014
Johnson-Odom, Darius 1	2011	2014
Johnson-Odom, Darius 1	2010	2014
Hayward, Lazar 32	2010	2013
Hayward, Lazar 32	2009	2013
Hayward, Lazar 32	2008	2013
Hayward, Lazar 32	2007	2013
Diener, Travis	2005	2010
Diener, Travis	2004	2010
Diener, Travis	2003	2010
Estimated 2.5 future NBA/season

Over those seasons MU had 33 players on the roster who made the NBA - understanding that a four-year player like Lazar Hayward counts as four. The current players add a total of 2.2 anticipated spots based on adding the percentages from last year.

While some teams have many more one-and-dones, the fact that MU has had so many players stay through their senior year and then make it to the NBA has led to a roster that averages 2.5 future NBA players each season.

The Blue Bloods are higher - led by an incredible average of 5.1 per Duke roster - but the vast majority of schools do not see the number of future NBA players on the court as we see at the Bradley Center.

Rnk	School since 2003	Future NBA/Year	Total
1	Duke	5.1	71.9
2	Kansas	4.9	68.1
3	North Carolina	4.7	66.4
4	Kentucky	4.7	66.3
5	UCLA	3.5	49.0
6	Connecticut	3.1	43.6
7	Washington	3.0	41.9
8	Syracuse	3.0	41.6
9	Arizona	3.0	41.4
10	Michigan St.	2.9	40.7
11	Louisville	2.8	38.5
12	Memphis	2.7	37.4
13	Notre Dame	2.5	35.5
14	Florida	2.5	35.5
15	Marquette	2.5	35.2
16	Georgetown	2.5	34.9
17	Texas	2.5	34.5
18	Michigan	2.4	33.4
19	Gonzaga	2.1	29.3
20	Wisconsin	2.0	27.4
21	Georgia Tech	1.9	26.8
22	LSU	1.8	25.4
23	Oklahoma St.	1.8	25.3
24	Villanova	1.8	24.7
25	Florida St.	1.8	24.6
26	Maryland	1.7	23.9
27	Vanderbilt	1.6	22.7
28	Iowa St.	1.6	22.0
29	Colorado	1.6	21.8
30	Illinois	1.5	21.5
31	California	1.5	21.0
32	Virginia	1.5	21.0
33	Purdue	1.4	20.3
34	USC	1.4	19.9
35	Georgia	1.4	19.6
36	Tennessee	1.4	19.3
37	Indiana	1.4	19.2
38	North Carolina St.	1.4	19.0
39	Pittsburgh	1.4	19.0
40	Texas A and M	1.3	18.1
41	Arkansas	1.3	17.9
42	Missouri	1.3	17.7
43	Nevada	1.2	17.0
44	New Mexico	1.2	17.0
45	Miami FL	1.2	16.9
46	Stanford	1.2	16.4
47	Oregon	1.1	16.0
48	Alabama	1.1	15.7
49	Wake Forest	1.1	15.4
50	Ohio St.	1.1	15.3

That week feels a whole lot better than the week before.

Well, we can all breathe just a touch easier, as we now know Marquette can put together a quality game against a quality opponent in Big East play. We spend a fair amount of time on the pod this week, discussing what the impact of the Butler win is on the season, and just what it was that allowed Marquette to put on such a good showing. We walk through some of the individual performances and discuss whether they are sustainable through the rest of the season or not. We also give a shout out to the crowd who put in yeoman's work on Saturday. We then transition to "well that's nice but can we win more?" and "OK but we still can't make the tournament, right....right?". Lastly we journey down a Marquette tangent that maybe the internet masses can answer for us. This week is a big week for Marquette's post season hopes, two tough road games that will determine if they've turned the corner or if they are still just talented freshmen. Download this episode (right click and save)