Remaking the Marquette roster

Building on our entry from last week about the enviable trajectory of Marquette hoops, today we'll look at recruiting -- and why the 2008 recruiting class offers an indication that Tom Crean is changing his approach to roster building.

The present roster, long on guards and short on skills at every other position, quickly established MU as an upper echelon Big East program. The formula is working but has its limitations, namely, the lack of productivity at non-backcourt positions. The unbalanced roster, while successful in putting a more than competitive team on the floor in the Big East, is not enough to break through to an elite level nationally.

The incoming class of 2008 might just change things for the better. Rather than overloading at one position or signing players with similar skills in the same class, the incoming talent 2008 -- combo guard Tyshawn Taylor, combo forward Joseph Fulce, center Chris Otule, and two-guard/swingman Nick Williams -- collectively can cover every position on the floor, and per scouting reports offer a range of complementary skills.

This group is a solid start on the journey to change the character of the roster which will allow MU to better compete for a Big East title, to get back to the Final Four, and to mitigate the annual cycle of off-season roster attrition (which, this year, could involve James and/or McNeal playing the game for a living next season).

As an aside, each of these players comes from winning programs - an underrated aspect of Crean's recruiting. Nick Williams will arrive on campus as the Alabama 6A player of the year, a two-time Final Four participant and a state champion. 6'10" Chris Otule will arrive as a guy who tripled his scoring average year to year, led his team to 24 wins and a first-ever playoff birth under the tutelage of legendary coach Ronnie Courtney. Tyshawn Taylor emerged as a go-to-guy on the nation's best high school team, the 32-0 St. Anthony's Friars. Finally, Joseph Fulce put up ridiculous numbers down at Tyler JC, leading his team to a national ranking all season long.

Building on the baseline of the balanced 2008 class, the 2009 group becomes the most critical class for Tom Crean since signing the Three Amigos. To date, Crean has not delivered strong recruiting classes in succession. One very good class is typically followed by a group that includes one productive starter and a few role players or worse (ie: Hayward, Acker, Cubillan and Blackledge following the Three Amigos), leaving the program vulnerable in the face of unexpected attrition or injury. To climb to the top of the Big East and beyond, MU needs to refill the stable with so-called studs more regularly.

A quick look at the MUScoop scholarship table reveals that the upper classmen on the 2009-2010 roster will be predominantly role players. Simply put, the 2009 freshman class is the difference between taking the program to another level, or continuing to cycle up and down as a productive class graduates, leaving behind a modestly talented roster.

At this point, Crean is off to a good start with the 2009 group. By securing a verbal from 6'7" forward Erik Williams (Cy Springs, TX), Marquette has its small forward of the future - always a position of need in the Crean era. Inking a productive big man such as 6'10" Kyle Rowley (Lake Forest Academy, IL) to go along with the highly coveted do-everything 6'7" Jamil Wilson from Racine, and a true point guard like Johnny Lacy (Milwaukee, Bay View) would complete a roster transformation that would create a higher ceiling for the program.

In addition, even though the 2008-2009 roster is already over-subscribed by one scholarship, Crean is still recruiting talent for this fall, fueling speculation that the current roster will undergo a rather substantial amount of additional attrition. Fox Sports is reporting that MU is in the top three (along with Ohio State and UVa) for former Indiana commit, point guard Terrell Holloway. Also, MU is pursuing 6'11" center Luka Mirkovic from La Lumiere School in La Porte, Ind. Mirkovic also is considering DePaul and Louisville.

We'll watch this space closely -- more roster churn appears to be on the way.

Four things to cheer you up...

Four things to cheer you up this weekend:

1. Davidson Beat Bucky

2. The Lopez twins are on the loser bus, just like the other 60 teams.

3. The Final Tom Crean Show on Time Warner Sports was fantastic. They've compressed all their Homer Interviews into one 5 minute Best of Homer spot:



4. Finally, here's our season, compressed into 5 minutes of goodness.

A look back with an eye on the future

Six days after the toughest post-season loss I can remember, the numbness still remains. Initially after the loss I figured time would quickly heal the wound, and I'd enthusiastically look forward to what is always an interesting off-season with MU -- not to mention the promise of next season.

Oh, if that could be so.

Truth is, the Stanford defeat was MU's most painful post-season loss since the 1978 upset to Miami (Ohio). This loss will ache for quite a while - - that's what happens when a program is flying high and has its wings clipped just before reaching new heights. And sure, there's been plenty of debate about how MU lost -- there's never a shortage of opinions about this team when they lose a close game. In watching the replay a couple of times this week on DVR, I have no complaints. MU's best player, and one of the hottest players in the country, had an open look at the end of regulation and another open look with a few seconds left in OT; neither shot fell. Despite that, it took an NBA lottery pick making a remarkable shot to beat MU -- a shot he released as he slid behind the backboard towards the baseline, out-of-bounds. In the end, MU came up short against a very good team.

Still, what the loss won't do is cloud the progress the Marquette program made during the 2007-2008 season. While the team did not demonstrate the kind of watershed breakthrough many expected, the trajectory of the program remains impressive, particularly given the strong core of returning talent and a balanced recruiting class arriving this fall.

Let's recap the highlights:

• 25-10 record, the third time a Crean-coached team reached that lofty wins plateau;
• MU won at Wisconsin;
• MU beat Notre Dame twice;
• For the first time, MU advanced to the Big East Tournament semifinals;
• MU advanced in the NCAA tournament;
• The emergence of Maurice Acker. Acker played his best ball in the last month of the season - a good sign for the long-term health of the program;
• Jerel McNeal. What can you say, he was extraordinary when his team needed him most;
• Dominic James. Folks will complain about his shooting -- which is abominable -- but James emerged as MU's top on-the-ball defender this year, and his better than 2:1 assist to turnover ratio is an indication of how much his overall game improved year to year;
• Trevor Mbakwe. I'm indifferent about Crean's decision to rip the redshirt off late in the season, but in a limited role Mbakwe appears to be the out-of-area rebounder MU has lacked for years, and plays bigger than his size;
• Lazar Hayward. More often than not, players improve the most between their freshman eand sophomore seasons. That was the case for Hayward, who's diverse offensive game and rebounding toughness were welcome sights on a team that once relied solely on its backcourt.

Now, let's recap a few of the underwhelming points from the season:

• Eleven Big East wins. While MU secured more Big East conference wins than ever before, the team also played more Big East games than ever before. Eleven wins is laudable but considering the veteran bunch MU returned this year, at least a dozen wins and competing for the Big East crown were more reasonable expectations;
• Roster limitations. Coming into the season with all of its key contributors returning, the sky appeared to be the limit for the Golden Eagles. However a redundant roster, the lack of skilled big men, and the absence of outside shooting continue to define this group. Crean's strategy of building an athletic roster of players with limited offensive diversification and a hunger for aggressive defense has proven to be a smart formula for keeping the program in the upper half of the Big East -- a major accomplishment. Despite this, there's a fear that the program will plateau at the present level unless that roster building approach is refined;
• Poor production from the seniors: Before the season started I was bullish on the team in part because of the return of two key seniors, Barro and Fitzgerald. My enthusiasm was misplaced. Unlike many of the seniors during TC's tenure, these guys failed to deliver in their final season much like Sanders, Townsend and Merritt struggled in lead roles for the 2003-2004 team. Barro, relegated to a reserve role for most of the campaign, struggled mightily in that new capacity. Even as a late-season starter, he never recaptured the promise he showed during his junior season. Fitz? Despite leading the nation in the dubious category of "fouling a shooter on a made basket", Fitzgerald rarely displayed the confidence of a senior in any aspect of his game. His inability to sink open shots or contribute consistently with a solid floor game greatly hindered the team;
• David Cubillan: He was my pick to struggle this year, and he followed suit. After his 13 point effort in the win against Pittsburgh in February, Cubillan became one of MU's most ineffective players in the last month of the season. Cubillan scored a combined 14 points in MU's last eleven games, shooting 16% from the field (5 for 31) amidst declining playing time. With the emergence of Maurice Acker, the impending arrival of Nick Williams and Tyshawn Taylor, as well as a healthier Scott Christopherson it is difficult to see Cubillan contributing to this team next season.
  

By any measure, the positives greatly outweigh the negatives and the state of the program is solid to great. This past season was a memorable ride. While there are areas where the program needs to demonstrate improvement -- specifically in recruiting a broader mix of skills -- the formula largely works, but is it enough going forward?

Coming up in the next couple of days we'll look at Crean's effort to remake the nature of the Marquette roster -- and what that could mean for the program. On to the offseason!

Post-season Numbers - Where are my turnovers?

(with a bonus McNeal is a stud edition)

Numbers for all five games of the post-season

When we look at the final numbers for the post-season, there are several interesting things to note. Unfortunately, the numbers do not say that we actually won our final game. First, our effective Field Goal % defense was worse than our opponents. However, our Offensive Rebounding percentage (OR%) was significantly better. Returning to the formula that worked in the non-conference part of the season, Marquette did an excellent job on the boards. Finally, our opponents didn't turn the ball over as much, and actually had an advantage over MU in this area.

What happened to the turnovers?

As we have covered in a previous post about turnovers and Marquette, a turnover rate above 20% for our opponents usually means we win. During the strong part of the last twelve games, Marquette was tremendous at forcing turnovers. However, this ability went away especially in the post-season. The graph above shows two trends. The first trend (line) shows our opponent's average turnover rate. Marquette's opponents were averaging a turnover rate well above 20%, which then slipped going into the post season.

The second trend (bar) shows our ability to influence turnovers. As an example, an opponent that usually averages 20% turnover rate but had a 25% turnover rate against Marquette would mean that Marquette influenced the turnover rate by 5%. This trend mimics the previous trend, but clearly highlights that Kentucky and Stanford did a better than normal job protecting the ball against Marquette.

Cracked Sidewalks wonders if this is particular to Marquette, or if teams in general just value the ball better in the NCAA tournament. If the latter, the implication is that an aggressive defense based on generating steals may be susceptible come tourney time.

But At least Offensive Rebounding came back strong

Offensive Rebounding for Marquette was an up and down affair during the season. There is no doubt, however, that it was one of the keys for our victories in the post-season. For Marquette to out-rebound Stanford shows just how well the team was doing in this area of play. After all, Stanford is one of the top rebounding teams in the country.

Individual Player Ratings - or McNeal is a Stud

Look, it's no secret that McNeal was a stud over the end of the season, but when we look at the numbers it really stands out. In the post-season, Marquette had a total of 10 net points, meaning that the final margin of all five games was MU +10. Jerel had a positive net point contribution of THIRTY FRICKING POINTS. Pretty much everyone else was either neutral or negative. David Cubillan, in particular, had a very rough end to the season.

Taking his game to the next level...

This graph shows exactly how McNeal took his game to the next level over the end of the season. James finished with the second most net points on the team, but McNeal just was incredible, with net positive contributions in every single game over the last twelve games. Well done, Jerel... well done.

Gloomy Video

Again, props to SoCalwarrior for shooting some footage. Filed under "sad but true."

2007 Recap, 2008 Predictions

Last season, after the MSU debacle, I wrote a post with a number of predictions, some funny, some realistic. Most came true. We're all in a funk right now, and for lack of something more substantive, let's review how I did:

The March 2007 post started out: "Ok, a few days have gone by, we're all still licking our wounds. Time to talk about the future." Ouch. Still applicable in March 2008.

1. 2007: I predict ...DJ will be on the team next year. And the "shooting slump" will be a distant memory. I predict he'll be better than he was Freshman year, and stay all 4 years at Marquette and be an Academic All-American. Mostly right. DJ was at MU and his shooting improved somewhat.
   
2. 2007: I predict one guy will leave the team, and one incoming recruit will not arrive. Half Credit. Saunders didn't make the team.
   
   
   
3. 2007: I predict Mr. Basketball Scott Christopherson will not red shirt. Bingo. Probably should have, though.
   
   
4. 2007: I predict TC will sign a juco guy this summer. For grins and chuckles only. Half Credit. Fulce may not be for G&C.
   
   
5. 2007: Last year, Marquette basketball fans raised over $1,300 for Al's Run. I predict we double that number next year. Sadly, not double, but $1645 isn't chump change.
   
   
6. 2007: We'll start the pre-season ranked about 15th. Close. Some services ranked us as high as 8th, others around 13-14.
   
   
7. 2007: I predict Mo Acker will be a fantastic addition to the team. I predict we'll sneak him on the court as a 6th man, being so short, no refs notice. -- But seriously, Mo will be a difference maker next year. Great defender, great 3 point shot, lightening quick. Pretty close. Mo hit a lot of big shots this year. I always pick an unsung guy, and Mo was my favorite player this year.
   
   
8. 2007: There'll be a bobblehead next year. I'll guess Jim McIllvane .. or maybe Al McGuire? My vote is for Joe Chapman. And I'm thinking the George Thompson bobblehead is two years away. Scratch that. The bobblehead will be Hank Raymonds. Oh, who am I kidding. There'll be another D. Wade bobblehead, belt buckle, voodoo doll, keychain, snowglobe, and/or t-shirt giveaway. "Wade Bucks," spendable at the concession stands, will drop from the Bradley Center ceiling. Not even close. No Bobblehead. 5 year Final Four paperweight.
   
   
9. 2007: I'll predict a Lazar Laser Pointer night giveaway .. hmm .. given out after the game. Close. How about them light sticks for the GTown game?
   
   
10. 2007: And someone else's number will be retired. Tony Smith is due. Wrong again.
    
    
11. 2007: I predict none of the incoming players will have 3, 11, 14, 15, 20, 24, 41, 43, 44, or 77 as their jersey number. For sure. No doubt about it. No brainer.
    
    
12. 2007: The Jesse White Tumblers will play half time this year. And those inflatable zoo animal guys. Can't remember what they were called. Zooropa or something? They'll be back. Half Credit. Zoomania came back at the GTown game.
    
    
13. 2007: MU will have its 3rd annual Haunted Hoops scrimmage again. Layup.
    
    
14. 2007: I'll guess Robert Jackson is some sort of assistant coach next year. I'll predict there'll be some interest for Todd Townsend at another program. Pure speculation, but he needs exposure to another system. Double-T was my favorite player years ago. All the other assistants will stay. Todd Townsend did go to Northeastern.
    
    
15. 2007: I'll predict our OOC home schedule contains more high interest games than last year's, including homers against UWM and UWGB and a mystery team. Izzo now owes Crean, so maybe MSU will come to the BC gratis? Added to 9 BE home games, the season ticket holders will be happier with the value. Partial Credit. UWM was a well attended game, but UWGB didn't happen, nor did any other high-interest OOC home game. With the 9 BE games, there were a boatload of high quality games at the BC this year.
    
    
16. 2007: I also predict there'll be a lot of complaints about the reseating process for season ticket holders, since it was announced it will be held at the Al, and not the Bradley Center where people can sit down and start their personal ass-groove. No surprise here.
    
    
17. 2007: I predict after 11 years of going to the Bradley Center, I will finally get on the jumbotron next season. Come on. My kid is very cute. Nope, but the old couple behind me got on the Kiss-Cam TWICE. So unfair.
    
    
18. 2007: I'll predict we win the Maui Invitational in November .. but lose to UW in Madison, extending their streak, and that Christmas will be canceled (again) because of the loss. Exactly wrong!
    
    
19. 2007: I predict 1290/1510AM will boost their power output. Or an angry mob will burn down their antenna tower. One or the other, not sure which. I predict "Antenna Night Giveaway" where all in attendance at the Bradley Center will receive a powerful AM radio antenna so they can listen to the post-game as they drive home. Partial credit. We're now on 540AM, which flipped the trouble. People inside the city get a poorer signal, those outside Milwaukee get a much better signal. Keep trying, ESPN Radio, keep trying.
    
    
20. 2007: And speaking of media, I predict there'll be a lot of complaints about ESPN's contract with the Big East. While every game will be "broadcast," a great number of games will be on ESPNU (satellite only) and herky-jerky ESPN360, which few receive. This did not happen, glad to say. MU had a great TV package this year.
    
    
21. 2007: I'll predict on a post-game show, Crean will say the crowd at the Bradley Center was phenomenal. This happened 42 times.
    
    
22. 2007: I predict the student section, after half don't show up for a "lesser" game, will be demoted to the "9th best Student Section in the Country." True dat. MU has a core group of ~1000 students that show up rain or shine, and ~3000 who only show up when they feel like it. Discouraging.
    
    
23. 2007: I predict one game there'll be an announcement that the crowd is the biggest in Wisconsin history. It happens every year. Partial Credit. A new record of 19,085 was set vs. GTown, but the announcement was not made because PuertoRicanNightmare complained about the announcement so much, MU didn't make it.
    
    
24. 2007: I predict Tom Crean will invite the Cracked Sidewalks team on a road game trip. (cough) SADLY, FALSE.
    
    
25. 2007: I'll predict no hand or wrist injuries to anyone on the team. There'll be a concussion or two, of course. There always is. Nope. DJ hurt his wrist.
    
    
26. 2007: I predict we'll go 12-6 in the Big East. 12-6 was close. I lowerered my expectations to 11-7 before the season began.
    
    
27. 2007: We'll get a better seed next year in the NCAAs, like a #3-4, win 1 game and lose in the 2nd round -- and that one of those games will be against another of Coach Crean's buddies, prompting 2,000 more stories about how tough it is to play against a friend. Very close. We bettered our seed by 2, did win one, lose the next. And the stories weren't about the Stanford Basketball Coach and Crean, it was about their Football Coach, Harbaugh, and Crean.

2008 Predictions:

1. DJ, Wes, and McNeal will all be back for their Senior year. Since we are over committed on scholarships, someone will have to leave. One could guess that Pat Hazel may want playing time at another university.
   
   
2. It wouldn't shock me if Buzz Williams got a head coaching gig somewhere. Didn't I read TCU was sniffing around? All the other coaches stay.
   
   
3. Another Former MU player will join the coaching staff, because it happens every year. What's Scott Merritt up to these days?
   
   
4. Mbakwe will get better. I don't see him exploding like Lazar did, though.
   
   
5. Scott Christoperson .. won't play many minutes in Big East play next year. While Scott may be our future long distance shooter, I can't see him getting quick enough to defend BE players.
   
   
6. Marquette will go 12-6 next year, 1-1 in the BET, 1-1 in the NCAAs. I think I've seen this movie before. While Fitz and Ooze will be missed the most, the incoming freshmen Fulce, Williams, Taylor, O'Tule will fill the gap, but they are freshmen on a team with 3 starting seniors.
   
   
7. It's going to be a long off-season.

Sorry for the lame predictions this year. Still gloomy from our Stanford loss.

Post-Game - Video Closure

Sorry, we at Cracked Sidewalks have been too bummed to write much about yesterday's loss to Stanford. You all watched the game anyhow. What are we going to tell you? That McNeal is a stud? That the Lopez twins are great players but need to keep their mouths shut? Like you didn't know that.

I'm sure if our heartbreak mends today, we'll write something later. Maybe a few dozen Cadbury bunnies will clear up our angst.

In the meantime..

Tom Crean didn't make it on Homer's radio broadcast, and ESPNNews didn't carry the MU press conference after the game. After Tivo-ing every news broadcast I could find, to hear something from the team, I've got this.

Here's some closure for you:

ARRRRRRRRRRGH..........

gut-wrenching loss on a remarkable shot in overtime......heck of a game. I am sick to my stomach.

Know your opponent: Stanford

Kudos to Seth for this comment in the post below (and one before that) about his beloved Stanford Cardinal. So now -- somewhat unplanned -- here is "Know your opponent - Stanford":

**************
Stanford fan here and newcomer to your very impressive blog. I've always had a soft spot for Marquette and Al McGuire was always one of my favorite coaches and commentators: will always remember him goading Arthur Lee into dancing after Stanford advanced to the Final Four ten years ago this month.

As for the two Stanford losses you write about: I think you can discard the loss at Oregon, as it was earlier in the year before Stanford really gelled. When Stanford and Oregon played again in Palo Alto later, Stanford crushed the Ducks.

The loss at USC does, however, provide a template you can look to try to emulate. Sure, Stanford was flat after having a share of the Pac-10 title taken away by the refs at UCLA two nights before, but they were just not focused on the boards enough. Also, USC's bigs are a bit undersized but very athletic and talented, plus their wings and guards are big, strong, and athletic enough to crash the offensive glass. Hayward and Matthews may fit the mold there, which is a big concern for us. The Lopez twins go for the spectacular block too much sometimes; they have to stay home and be content with defending/altering the shot and collecting the rebound.

I'm pretty concerned with the matchup against Lazar Hayward. He looked great against Kentucky. Strong, athletic, and a credible outside threat. Kind of sounds like Mailk Hairston of Oregon. Then again, Robin Lopez shut Hairston down pretty well. (Robin is outstanding at defending bigs that try to score outside the paint: Ryan Anderson of Cal had his way against pretty much everyone this year, but Robin convincingly shut him down twice.)

Our guards are not much offensively unless Goods gets hot, but I like them collectively on defense. Even the weak link Mitch Johnson has improved quite a bit. Darren Collison effectively used screens to hit 12-foot jumpers and had the running teardrop layup in his arsenal to clear the long reach of the Lopez twins. Goods totally shut down talented two guards like Derrick Low and Russell Westbrook in Pac-10 tournament; he will need to bring his "A" game defensively today, as well.

Regarding the "Stanford by the numbers" post -- Stanford has done a good job tightening up its offense in the last part of the year and limiting their turnovers, even against UCLA's monster backcourt.

If you're talking about the last twelve games: Stanford did have a rough patch, losing at Arizona State and barely winning at Arizona. Washington and Goods were dinged up and the defense took a hit because of that, but Washington is looking better than ever now. However, I'd point to their performance in the Pac-10 tournament -- beating Arizona and Washington State before taking UCLA down to the final shot -- as a more accurate indicator of how well they're playing now.

I think we're better than Wisconsin. Don't know that we're as good as Louisville, but we would give them a much better game this year.

Looking forward to an exciting game today!

Thanks Seth!!

The Sweet 16 awaits

UPDATED
Marquette aims to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2003 when the Golden Eagles (25-9) take on the Stanford Cardinal (27-7) this afternoon in Anaheim.

After an impressive win against Kentucky, the task grows taller for Marquette this afternoon. The Cardinal are led by the seven-foot twins, Brook and Robin Lopez. Brook Lopez, a sure-fire NBA lottery pick, leads the team with 18 points and 8 rebounds per game. Robin Lopez contributes 10 points, 5 boards and 2.5 blocks per game.

With the Lopez twins anchoring the lane, Stanford is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and they've dominated the backboards all season long, especially on the offensive glass. Per Rosiak, Crean likens the matchup to facing Thabeet and Hibbert in the same lineup - - which might be true if the Stanford pair wasn't better.

So, the antidote to ridiculous height and strength is simple, right? Run, shoot well and crash the boards. Perhaps Ousmane Barro, who will set the Marquette career record for games played today (127) will deliver a magical performance. Or maybe Lazar Hayward has more posterization remaining in his repertoire (read more below).

Seriously though, USC topped the Cardinal 77-64 late in the year despite the acute height disadvantage. USC dominated the backboards, taking home and advantage on both sides of the glass to win the game. The Cardinal also fell at Oregon, a smaller, perimeter oriented team. The Ducks won despite being manhandled on the glass and losing the turnover battle because they converted at the charity stripe and limited the Cardinal to just 16% shooting from beyond the arc. Of course, the Cardinal hitting on just 52% of their free throws helped too.

In this battle of opposites, Stanford appears to have the upper hand but perhaps the Golden Eagles have something on their side, karma. After shedding the weight of unrealized expectations on Thursday, Marquette soars into Saturday's tilt with nothing to lose. For the second week in a row, this group broke through to new heights -- first by advancing to the Big East tournament semifinals, and now by winning an NCAA opening round game. Factor in MU's tough schedule (the Golden Eagles played a whopping 12 games against the RPI top 30), the Big East's 7-1 start in NCAA play, and that marvelous backcourt depth ........ hey, you never know.

In the end, here is what we do know:

• Stanford is ginormous. Marquette is not.
• Marquette is fast and quick. Stanford is not.

Opposites.

Still need more? Henry Sugar has it covered with this boffo analysis of the Cardinal -- and this confidence-related epiphany on MUScoop.

Tip-off is scheduled for 5:45pm CST on CBS. Ring Out Ahoya!

Once again, Cracked Sidewalks will be there to cover the game in-person.

Media Updates

• The San Franscisco Chronicle previews the game (thanks to MLB for the tip)
• SF Chronicle on the Cardinal's concern with Dominic James.
• Chicago Tribune previews the game - hey, with no Flatlander programs in the tourney, they might as well adopt the Warriors.
  
• Rosiak on the off-day in Anaheim.
• Lilliputians take on Gigantaur U -- nice preview by USAToday.
• LATimes: Marquette tries to measure up against Stanford.
• SJMerc says the Cardinal is more athletic than in years past.
• Josh Peter from Yahoo! says MU is tough enough.
• LATimes with the Harbaugh angle.
• AP preview.
• Rosiak on the Stanford 7-footers.
• Oakland Tribune on the game.
• Scout.com previews the game.
  

Getting to Know Stanford - By the Numbers

Here are the Important Numbers to Know about Stanford. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

Stanford has an overall Pomeroy Rating of #10. (Marquette is still at #12) Like Kentucky, Stanford prefers a slower pace to the game at 65 possessions / game, which is #242 in the country.

Stanford's Offensive Efficiency (115.8 - Rank of #25) gets better because of:

• Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) - average of 50.1% (national rank of 155)
• Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) - average of 39.8% (national rank of 7)
  

Like every team, the Cardinal's offense looks to how well they do at field goal percentage. In this area, they are average. However, as one might expect for a team with two seven-footers, they do an outstanding job at offensive rebounding. Digging into Stanford's offensive numbers further, they are #6 in the country at not getting blocked and they shoot one of the lowest amount of threes in the country (#316).

Stanford's Defensive Efficiency (86.2 - Rank of #6) gets better because of:

• Limiting Turnovers - average TO Rate of 18.9% (rank of 54)
• Forcing Turnovers - average TO Rate for opponents of 17.8 (rank of 318)

I find it interesting that how often they turn the ball over impacts their defensive efficiency. Obviously, it will be key for Marquette to force a lot of turnovers. Also, their Defensive Efficiency gets worse when:

• Opponents get a good eFG% - average rate of 43.8% (#8 in the country)
• Opponents do well at OR% - average rate of 28.4% (#17 in the country)
  

Stanford is really good defensively, and they don't have any areas that Marquette usually exploits. Offensive Rebounding has been huge for Marquette in the post-season, and tomorrow's game will provide a huge test. Did we also mention that they're #6 in the country at preventing 2-point baskets and #35 in the country at blocking shots? These are just like the strengths of Georgetown, Louisville, and Connecticut.

How well have the Cardinal been playing lately?


Here is some good news. Over their last twelve games, Stanford's Offense and their Defense have been getting worse. In fact, until their rout of Cornell, Stanford was at a point where they were not playing winning basketball. Their ORtg (106.8) and DRtg (99.2) over the last five games are not nearly as impressive as their season numbers. Based on how well they have been playing and how well we have been playing over the last five games (using the Bill James log5 method), the numbers give us a 42% chance of winning the game. Of course, numbers don't play on the basketball court...

Summary
Stanford has better offensive and defensive numbers than Marquette, and they have strengths in areas that have caused us a lot of problems. This is one tough matchup. However, Stanford is impacted on both ends by the Turnover battle, which is an area Marquette will need to win. Plus, the Cardinal have not been playing as well lately, so there are some opportunities for Marquette to exploit.

Finally, remember the lesson from another good team. That team is #1 at defense according to Pomeroy. They don't turn the ball over much, they usually win offensive rebounding, they really limit two point baskets, and they get to the free throw line a lot. They also have a lot of size inside. Marquette managed to do just fine in pulling out a win at Wisconsin thanks to crashing the offensive boards and forcing a lot of turnovers.

Jack Harbaugh Fires 'em Up : Bootleg Video

This is shot during the pep rally before the UK game yesterday. Thanks, SoCalwarrior!

The video is a bit shaky .. skip forward a bit. You can tell Jack has given halftime speeches before!



UPDATED: Here's another great video by SoCalwarrior:

Al Goes Out In Style....must read material

Courtesy of a faithful Cracked Sidewalks reader, here is the actual Sports Illustrated cover story recounting Marquette's 1977 National Championship. If that link is slow, here's the landing page.

Good reading and thanks!!

Kentucky Media Update and Numbers Recap

UPDATED
Great posts already from Hilltopper and MUWarrior92, and if you haven't checked it out, we highly encourage you to look at "On Golden Pond" and "Time to Exhale". There are a ton of outstanding video clips and stories.

• This Chicago Tribune article recaps the game.
• ESPN.com has the AP recap, and they also have Instant Analysis. There's also an article by Gene Wojciechowski that focuses on the Cats, but has some complementary info about Marquette's Defense.
• Rosiak's feature article talks about balance and relief, where the jsonline blog has a ton of entries (lots of good stuff).
• Here is a transcript of the postgame press conference, if you just can't get enough.
• CBSSports.com has a good article about Marquette's experience under pressure.
• From the Kentucky side, Matt Jones' KentuckySportsRadio.com has lots of coverage from their perspective.
• Yahoo Sports says we're no longer first round flops. Amen
  

In addition, Cracked Sidewalks wanted to commend the Kentucky fans for being good sports, even in defeat. The back and forth interaction, including cross-posting, and discussion on both sides was of a quality level. Our respect for Kentucky basketball has been increased this week.

Numbers Recap
Don't know what all of these numbers mean? Take a look at our explanation for Team Stats and Individual Stats first.

Despite the Kentucky Preview focusing on their defensive abilities, this was an offensive game that Marquette managed to win. We came out ahead in three of the four factors, especially on Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%). This was a key area for Marquette in the non-conference portion of our schedule, especially against UW@Madison, and the team has been on a roll at Offensive Rebounding in the last four games. Stanford will provide a real test (more on that later).

Individual Player Review



No surprise that the top four performers in this game were the top four players on our team. It was yet another good game by McNeal. James was just behind McNeal, and thanks to shooting 8/10 from the free throw line, ended up positive net points.

We're going to have more information here at Cracked Sidewalks as we begin looking towards Stanford, so keep checking back regularly.

On Golden Pond....a look back at Thursday

What a relief. I'm thrilled with the win but more relieved then anything. Relieved for the staff, relieved for the fans but most of all the players. The last two NCAA appearances were tough on MU. Significant injuries and youth played a big role and today they had to take on one of the giant programs of all-time. It was weird seeing Kentucky out there as the underdog but in a sense I was glad MU played someone with that kind of pedigree. Not that there was a chance MU would come into this game overconfident, but anything extra to pump them up was a good thing in my mind. As it turns out, not a bad day at all....let's take a look back at the sites and sounds of today.

The Pep Rally - 9:15am DoubleTree Hotel Anaheim, California

Pulled into the hotel and the cheerleaders, band and PRN's favorite mascot were outside the lobby in full throat. Managed to get inside and spotted a few friendly faces, including soon to be superstar sports agent Bill Robers (MU alum) and his lovely wife. Gerry Boyle, Father Wild, Greg Kliehbon (sp?) were there along with many faces from other trips over the years. Good turnout for a 2000 mile trip with a few So. Cal alumni as well.

Found Bill Cords in the crowd and spoke with him for about 10 minutes. He looks terrific. Well rested, healthy...what retirement should be. But you could tell that even though he's not the AD any longer, he was definitely into this event and the game. You can't just drop your life's work because you aren't punching a time card any longer. Always good to talk to him. He helped rebuild a winner when it looked hopeless at times.

About 9:30am the players started coming down through the lobby and outside to the bus. I captured a few videos showing them on their way to the most important game of the season.






After they loaded the bus, they were given a police escort from Anaheim's finest over to the Honda Center. Meanwhile the fans retreated back into the hotel for a pep talk from Jack Harbaugh.



The Pep Talk

You could tell this guy was a lifelong coach. I've heard him give a few of these before, but today's was very good. My video is terrible and I'm hoping someone else has some better clips. He started off by introducing his son, former NFL QB and current Stanford head football coach, Jim Harbaugh to the audience.



Jack then went into what today means. What it means especially for the seniors. For Barro, for Fitzgerald, for Blackledge. I'll post the video if I get it because I can't do it justice. It just struck a chord for me personally. He said the last four years we have been Barro's family and his teammates have been his brothers. Today could be his last game every with this family and these brothers. He would bring it all to the game, every last bit of energy. The same with Fitz and Lawrence. It was well stated. Maximum effort.

He then implored us all to make the Honda Center our home, to scream and yell and make our guys feel like it was our building. He divided the room into two and had a mini-competition between the two sides in terms of loudness. The fans were ready at this point...bring on the game.


Bumping into Joanie...cute story

So we leave the conference room and my wife tells me that the woman she saw yesterday at the Block of Orange (a large So Cal mall)shopping was in the room where the pep talk just happened. I asked her to describe which one. She said the gal with brown hair and the little boy. I started to laugh....you mean "THAT ONE"?

She replied, "yes".

Well, here's the background. Yesterday my wife tells me when I get home from work that she bumped into a Marquette fan at the mall while she was shopping with a girlfriend. My wife made a comment to her that it was great to see a MU fan and that her husband (me) went to MU, etc, etc. Well, my wife asked her yesterday if she was going to the game today and if she was all squared away with tickets. LOL. Joanie said she was all taken care of.

So that leads us back to today. I tell my wife, well honey, that's Joanie Crean...the wife of our head coach and I think not only is she going to the game today, her ticket situation is probably all squared away too.

Just then Joanie comes out, sees my wife and I think they had the 24 hour mall flashback for one second as they recognized each other. She was super nice, spoke to us for a few minutes and brought Reilly over. Very nice family. Very generous with her time.

Off to the Honda Center

So we got into my truck and gave a lift to Tim Vetscher and three other MU supporters. Vetscher worked as a student for me in 1997 selling season tickets to MU faithful. Now he's a television reporter in Phoenix....always good to see Tim. He participates on MU scoop from time to time.

We arrived at the Honda Center at 10:25am just before the doors opened.




My wife and I had never attended a Marquette game together in 10 years...at least not sitting together. When I worked at MU during the games, she was usually on the other side of the arena with our 3 month old son in the baby bjorn...so today was going to test our marriage.

We waited the hour for the game to tip off, I was nervous and she was the rock that she always is.

Attendance was quite sparse from what I'm used to at the Bradley Center and hosting those first two rounds. Milwaukee really does a super job of supporting the NCAA tournament.

At 11:25 they did the national anthem by the the MU band...well done. That was followed by player introductions.





I won't get into the game itself, most others have already done that. I did capture (poorly) a few final videos of the last seconds of the game including my comment "FINALLY" that is caught on video....it's been awhile and it's good to finally get another NCAA tournament win. The MU fans were ecstatic and giving Joe Crawford props for a tremendous game.




Now we've got a day off to figure out how to handle two 7 footers who have pushed UCLA to the brink twice in the last 14 days. It's good to be in the NCAAs again...and winning.

Time to exhale: Marquette advances in the NCAA Tournament

Marquette fought off Kentucky in the final minutes to notch their first NCAA tournament victory in the post-Wade era, winning by a final score of 74-66. With the victory Marquette advances to play the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday in Anaheim.

Jerel McNeal hit for 20 points (8-15 shooting), and Lazar Hayward netted 16 points (7 -11 shooting). Dominic James added 15 points and three assists (and zero turnovers in 29 minutes). Marquette shot 44% for the game.

Marquette led by as many as 11 in the second half, but Wildcat Joe Crawford had the game of his life, hitting 35 points, keeping UK in the game longer than expected.

With just about five minutes remaining, the Wildcats cut the lead to just three at 56-53 when Dominic James delivered in the game's key sequence. Following an offensive rebound by Dan Fitzgerald, James drilled an open three-pointer with 4:23 remaining to boost the MU lead to 59-53. After a UK miss, James took advantage of Ramel Bradley's tentative defensive play with four fouls to drive past the UK guard for the layup, stretching the Marquette lead to 61-53 with 3:14 to play.

Wesley Matthews sealed the win by sinking eight consecutive free throws in the last 30 seconds of the game. Matthews finished with 13 points. Overall, MU was an impressive 23-29 from the charity stripe on the afternoon.

Note to teams playing at the Honda Center, the games are being played under "West Coast Rules" whereby intentional fouls don't exist. Twice in the last minute, UK purposely fouled Dwight Burke, the worst FT shooter on the court, far far away from the ball. Twice, the refs applied West Coast Rules and neglected to call an intentional. Oh, well.

Tipoff for the MU-Stanford game is TBD -- either 5pm or 8pm.

This day has been a long time coming, and I've been dreading it all season. Lose, and we're one and done once again. Win, and we've got the monkey off our backs. I hardly slept last night, but I woke up believing this was our day.

I admit, it was very odd seeing Marquette's name on a bracket line to the right. LET'S GO WARRIORS!

AP Wrap / Official Box

Marquette Press Conference:

Live blogging

Marquette92 is live blogging from Anaheim here:

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=7510

Let's Dance: Marquette takes on Kentucky in tourney opener

UPDATED
When Marquette and Kentucky renew acquaintances on Thursday in Anaheim, the Golden Eagles will look to earn their first NCAA tournament win since the magical run to the 2003 Final Four - - a run that included a memorable win over the then top-seeded Wildcats.

Five years later, the roles are reversed and the pressure is squarely on the Golden Eagles. Despite making its third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance, the Marquette fanbase is desperate for a win in March, and as a healthy, higher-seeded team, expectations are understandably high in Warrior Nation.

Against a thin Kentucky squad that goes only six or seven deep, look for the Golden Eagles to commit to a faster pace -- and to drive and dish more than usual. As we saw last week in New York, MU will push the ball off of both makes and misses -- secondary fast break baskets are a vital part of the arsenal -- to create a decidedly up-tempo game that minimizes halfcourt sets.

Of course, we also saw the Ghost of Offensive Despair in the Big East Tournament when MU endured a 13 minute stretch without a made field goal against Pitt .......a bitter reminder of MU's abominable offensive effort against Michigan State in last season's NCAA tournament.

Absent effective shooters, Marquette has struggled against teams that lock down the paint -- much like the Wildcats have done this season. Since January when facing teams that defend the interior exceptionally well -- Louisville, UConn and Georgetown -- Marquette went a combined 0-5 and shot roughly 31% in those games. Realize that UK has a similar defensive profile, but the Wildcats turn the ball over more than just about anybody you'd expect to see in the NCAA tournament. Therein lies a key to the game.

We've already run detailed numbers previews for Kentucky and Marquette -- and now it is finally time for our favorite time of year, Basketball Christmas season. Moreover, Hilltopper says MU won't lose on his birthday. Ah, it really is the most wonderful time of the year (if MU wins on Thursday). Anyway, here is the boiled down version for the game. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

Top Five Numbers to Know about Marquette v. Kentucky

• 80% - Pomeroy predicts an 80% chance of Marquette victory
• 291 - Kentucky's rank at protecting the ball
  
• Kentucky turns the ball over on almost one out of every four possessions
• Marquette is #48 in the country at forcing turnovers
• 25 - Kentucky's rank at getting to the Free Throw line
• They get to the line 30% of the time that they take a shot
• Marquette is #264 in the country at preventing our opponents from shooting free throws
• 63.9 - Average number of possessions for Kentucky
• This is one of the slowest paces in the country (#281)
• Tempo will play a huge role in the game
  
• 6 - The rank of Marquette's defense according to Pomeroy
• This is anchored by our tough perimeter defense at getting steals (#5 in the nation) and preventing three-pointers (#3 in the nation)
• Be confident that we have an elite defense

Tipoff is scheduled for 1:30pm CDT on CBS.

MEDIA UPDATES

• Don't forget to join the Cracked Sidewalks/MUScoop pick'em contest -- just for fun.
• The Journal-Sentinel has a cool widget that breaks down the individual matchups for the game here.
• Rosiak blogged overnight -- good info on UK and more.
• Kentucky Sports Radio (ESPN Radio in Louisville's blog) previews the game. Nice work Matt!
• Yahoo! on the Blue Collar Cats.
  
• Nick Williams was named Alabama 6A Player of the Year (Tip: John Pudner) by the Alabama Sports Writers Association. Congratulations, Nick, and we're excited to have you join the team next year. By the way, don't forget to check out Nick Williams' wiki page.
• The Omaha World-Herald has a great story about the fight between Bernard Toone and Al McGuire in 1977 (Tip: Ben), which helped kick-start MU's run to the National Championship. Great story, although I think that such events would receive decidedly less favorable coverage in 2008.
• The SportsLifer wonders if there is a Cinderella to be had this year (he figures MU was one in 2003).
• Rosiak says MU wants to avoid the slow starts that have plagued them in the NCAAs.
  
• Lunardi picks MU to win by 15 in the opening round.
• CBS Sportsline gives MU the nod too over UK as well.
• Seth Davis -- well, he picks MU to fall short against the Wildcats. However, Wisconsin native Luke Winn sees MU flying into the Sweet 16. Nice.
• Chicago Tribune on UK - - happy to be back in the tourney.
• Buzz Williams talks up his old boss, Billy Gillispie.
• The Louisville Courier-Journal talks about the impact of the 2003 MU win over UK on the recruiting trail.

This post is a joint contribution by Henry Sugar and NYWarrior

Know Thyself - Marquette's Numbers

Now that we've gone through an entire regular season, Marquette fans have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Or do we? After all, it's fairly common for fans to say that Marquette needs to force a lot of turnovers (true) or hit their three pointers (not quite true) in order to win. Therefore, in an effort for MU to "Know Thyself", we wanted to take a dive into the numbers for Marquette.

Marquette's Pomeroy Rating is #12. In fact, we've been hovering around the Top 10 all season, so we certainly are better than our seed (at least according to Pomeroy).

Marquette's Offensive Efficiency (Rank of #38) depends on:

• Our effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and... that's it.
• Seriously, how well we do on offense basically boils down to the field goal percentage that Marquette achieves. For the season, our eFG% averages 50.7% (national rank of 141)
  
• Unfortunately, our offensive efficiency rank has been falling in the last month or so. The current rank of 38 is our lowest of the season and we are especially trending poorly at eFG%. Not. Good.
  

Of course, looking at the MU Scouting Report, we can see that MU is good in two other areas offensively.

• Marquette is #27 in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
  
• We are #48 in the country at Turnover Rate (protecting the ball).
  

As we see below, OR% has been somewhat up and down for the whole season, but has been trending favorably lately. Marquette was ferocious on the boards in the Big East Tournament, and Kentucky is average at best at preventing Offensive Rebounds.

Where our team has really been good has been on the defensive end. Marquette's Defensive Efficiency (Rank of #6) depends on:

• Our Opponent's effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
  
• MU is #25 in the country at eFG% defense, holding opponents to an eFG% of 45.9%
  
• Our Opponent's Turnover Rate
• Marquette is #35 in the country at forcing turnovers, forcing a turnover rate of 23.9%, or almost one in four possessions
  
• Our Opponent's Free Throw Rate - if they shoot more free throws, then our defense suffers
  
• MU is #264 in the country at preventing their opponent from getting to the line
  

One can see that Marquette's defense is based on limiting our opponents from getting easy shots, and by forcing a lot of turnovers. How is Marquette able to limit our opponents and force turnovers? We are #3 in the country at three-point defense and we are #5 in the country at stealing the ball. Our perimeter defense is really quite good. Considering that Kentucky has adjusted their game plan to start on the perimeter more, that's a good sign for Marquette.

As is surely no surprise to Marquette fans, when we foul our opponents a lot we tend to lose. Fouls are going to play a huge role in this game on both sides.

Summary
How does Marquette win? Marquette has established their ability to win on the defensive end. Everything derives from the defensive pressure on the perimeter. Unfortunately, our offensive capabilities are not at the same level.

The last two NCAA tournament games have been an exaggeration of that team's capabilities. In 2006 (overall rating of 28 ; 7 seed in tournament), our Steve-Novak-driven offense was better than our defense, and that team got torched defensively by Alabama. In 2007 (overall Pomeroy rating of 38 ; 8 seed in tournament), our defense was better than our offense, and without Jerel McNeal we... let's not rehash the Michigan State game again. The fear is clearly that this year's team will falter offensively.

However, unlike the last two years, Marquette has a much stronger Pomeroy rating and we are underseeded instead of overseeded. In addition, this year's team doesn't just have a good defense. We have an elite defense that can help propel us forward.

Media Updates for Wednesday

UPDATED
Here's what folks all around the country are saying about the upcoming Marquette-Kentucky matchup:

• IWB's SportsBubbler site has video of the TC press conference from yesterday.
  
• The latest installment of the BIG EAST CAST is up and ready for your ears.
  
• In case you didn't stay up late, here is Todd Rosiak's chat transcript from last night.
• Rosiak looks into how and when the Wildcats hit their stride this season after a rough start.
• Rosiak's weekly Golden Eagles capsule.
  
• The Chicago Tribune, Marquette's hometown paper in March, says Dominic James is ready to flip the switch ..... to 'ON' we hope.
• The ChiTrib again talks about the matchup on Thursday --one that Crean thinks he's seen before - "They are very similar to Pittsburgh," Crean said. "They have outstanding guard play [and] forwards who can make plays."
• The Louisville Courier-Journal notes that Thursday's game is all about the guards. Gillispie noted MU's overall speed as a concern,
  

  "I think it's a very, very scary matchup for anyone that plays them because they have a really good team, and they're really, really fast at every single position, I believe," Gillispie said. "The most important thing is, they're extremely well-coached, and they play extremely hard every single time they play."

• The AP takes a UK perspective on the Wildcats' "scary" matchup on Thursday.
• The smarter reporter at the Appleton Post-Crescent takes MU as the Dairyland State's most likely to advance in their clever 'point-counterpoint. feature.
• Kentucky.com educates their readers on all things Marquette.
  
• John Clay looks at how the Cats have dealt with the different styles of play from opponents this season.
• BTW, here's a fun thread at the UK Rivals site -- 'what was your first memory of Marquette basketball"
• Basketball Prospectus breaks down the South and West Regions. Marquette is given an 80% chance of winning their first game and a 1% chance of winning the National Championship. Fun breakdown of all the teams to read, and some nice coverage of MU. "So you're telling me there's a chance..."
• The Sports Gal (espn.com) predicts Marquette to lose to Memphis in the Elite Eight. This comes after our defeat of Kentucky and Cornell. Wait! what? Not much respect for Stanford from the Sports Gal...
  

Don't forget to read our entry on 'Know Your Opponent', a special Q/A from a UK fan right here.

Much more to come today and tomorrow as gametime approaches.

Bracket time. Sign up for our NCAA Tournament pick'em

Crackedsidewalks.com and muscoop.com are hosting an NCAA Tournament Pick'em bracket contest...except that there are no prizes.

Click here to enter your picks


1 point for first round correct
2 points for second round correct
3 points for third round correct
4 points for fourth round correct
6 points for Final Four round correct
10 points for champion picked correctly

This is just for fun, no prizes. Brackets automatically close at 12:05pm EST on Thursday


Best of luck and GO MARQUETTE!!!

Know your opponent: a fan's perspective on the Kentucky Wildcats

.......ah, time to go back to one of our favorite formulas here at Cracked Sidewalks, the venerable 'know your opponent' Q/A. Today we're pleased to welcome Brandon Eaves, a die-hard Kentucky basketball fan who was kind enough to get us smart on the Wildcats. Brandon posts regularly on TheCatsDomain - - here u go.......

Like MU, UK looks to be a perimeter-oriented team. Can you describe their style of play?
UK is a team that really focuses on defense first and foremost. Offensively, UK likes to keep to game in the 60-70 point range. They try to limit the number of possessions that each team has and are deliberate in their half court sets and will wait until the shot clock gets under 10 seconds before executing their play. They are perimeter oriented to the degree in that they like to start their offense from there but they aren’t really a 3-point shooting team primarily. UK will take the 3 when it’s open but they will usually look to take the ball to the basket first and foremost. Overall, the style of UK could be described as precision based. The Wildcats take a lot of time setting up their plays, but it doesn’t feel like they are slowing the game down. You’ll see what I mean on Thursday.

Seniors Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford lead the Wildcats in scoring, and are both very efficient offensive players. What should MU look for from the Wildcats' backcourt aces?
Bradley is the brains and Crawford is the muscle. Another way to say it is that Bradley is the trigger and Crawford is the bullet. With Bradley you will see a guy who is very smooth, very collected, and very smart. He is an excellent ball handler, solid scorer, and great passer. Nearly everything UK does on offense will run through Bradley. He has the ability to drive to the basket and hit from the outside. There have been games where he single-handedly was the reason UK won the game. He is a scorer but he will look for the assist first.

Joe Crawford is the type of player that you really never want to have to leave your program. Joe is a guy that will very quietly put 35 points on you if you don’t keep him in check; and if you do try to keep in him check he will still go for 24 points against you. He is not as skilled of a ball handler as Bradley, but he is a much more dominant scoring threat and he will get in the mix of things and pull out a fair share of rebounds. He is a well built, stocky, guard that only needs a small sliver of space to burn his defender. He can hit the 3 from about 25 feet consistently so teams need to put someone on him all the time. Zone defenses will get torn apart if Crawford isn’t specifically targeted.

Crawford and Bradley are the stars of the team. You should expect to see both of them handle the ball a lot and they will most likely play almost all of the game.

What kind of opponent do the Wildcats have the the most success against?
It’s kind of hard to say. UK has played against several types of strategies this season and they have had success in the second half of the season after the team came together. However, teams that rely heavily on one or two people to be the scorers or the main playmakers generally have a tough time against UK.

What kind of opponents can make the Wildcats struggle?
Teams that like to get up and down the court and score in the 80-90 and up point range tend to give UK problems. UK doesn’t have a very deep bench so keeping players as fresh as they can be is a priority for UK.

Despite losing losing Patrick Patterson, the Wildcats didn't miss a beat down the stretch. Did the team adapt its style of play after Patterson was lost for the season?
They did. When Patterson was in the game the idea was to go to Patterson first and let him dominate the inside. Now that Patterson is out, the idea is for everything to start with Bradley or Crawford. UK went from an inside-out mentality to an outside-in mentality. It seems to have worked for them.

We've talked about the stars - - is there another player on the UK roster that might surprise everybody with a breakthrough performance on Thursday?
Keep an eye on Perry Stevenson and Derrick Jasper. Stevenson will come in off the bench but he is a tremendous shot blocker with his long arms and lanky body. Jasper is a guy that has been streaky this season, but if he’s on he’s fantastic. Stevenson is also very good at blocking free throws, so you guys better be ready! :-)

Brandon, thanks for your time!

Will the MU game be on television in your area? Chicago fans you get Purdue. See preliminary listings

We don't have a coverage map yet, but we do have the listings from CBS where the game will be broadcast constantly vs partially based on where you live.

Of course there are other options like Directv's Mega March Madness where each game will be in HD will get you the game wherever you live. Some markets will multicast games, but there are only about 25 of those markets in the country out of 210 total. Then there is the online version you can watch for free but free is basically getting what you pay for.


You folks in Chicago are not getting the game unfortunately because you're getting the Purdue game. NYC fans aren't either.

http://www.muscoop.com/pickem/320-2-prelim.map.pdf

Other maps

March 20th Afternoon Games

http://www.muscoop.com/pickem/320-1-prelim.map.pdf

March 20th Stanford-Cornell National Game

http://www.muscoop.com/pickem/320-2a-prelim.map.pdf

March 20th Evening Games 1

http://www.muscoop.com/pickem/320-3-prelim.map.pdf

March 20th Evening Games 2

http://www.muscoop.com/pickem/320-4-prelim.map.pdf

Tuesday Media Updates

There's loads of interest in the MU/UK matchup -- just what you'd expect.

• First off, MU is a popular choice to get bounced in Round One this week. Paul Zeise at the Pittsburgh News-Gazette is one of the Cassandras, even though he insists MU will lose because it relies too much on the three-point shot. This is the kind of over-simplification you'd expect from somebody who doesn't cover the team, and wrongly assumes that since MU relies on guards it must rely on the trey. Zeise might be curious to know that MU shoots the three-ball just about as well as its next opponent - 35% to 36%.
  
• Not to be outdone, the Cincinnati Enquirer picks a Kentucky upset in the opener. Jonathan Smith of the Kentucky Kernel doesn't pick a UK win but he notes that the 'Cats have a 'favorable' matchup. Digger and Dickie V -- who also picked UK -- must be thrilled.
• Rosiak jumps back in the saddle with a feature on Jerel McNeal's return to the NCAA tourney this year.
  
• Shannon Ryan of the Chicago Tribune offers a recipe for an MU win: a) don't snooze (honest), b) defend, defend, defend and c) be board bullies.
• Chris Jenkins of the AP is back with another feature, this one on Lazar Hayward, who, according to Dominic James, is the key to a run in March.
• Kentucky Sports Radio is getting amped up -- 60 hours until tournament time, the best time of the year for hoops junkies.
  

TYSHAWN TAYLOR UPDATE
This is OT from the NCAA tournament -- but congratulations to Tyshawn Taylor and the St. Anthony's Friars who finished the season 32-0 with a 62-39 win over Science Park. With the win, the Star-Ledger claims this group is the the second-best group Hurley has ever coached. Considering Bob Hurley has won more than two dozen state titles, that's quite a statement. Wow. Zagoria covers the champs here.

Congrats, Tyshawn!!

Marquette finishes in the top 10 for graduation rates among NCAA teams

Lapchick concluded, “As always, there are schools that win big enough to be here in March and graduate their student-athletes. If we were to choose a Top Ten for Graduation Success Rates,these schools would be there: Butler, Davidson, Marquette, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Purdue, San Diego, Villanova, Western Kentucky, and Xavier. The Final Four would include Butler, Notre Dame, Purdue and Western Kentucky.”

Those were the findings of Richard Lapchick in his annual survey of the NCAA Tournament and academics released today.

The entire study can be found here....Marquette finished with a 89% graduation rate.

PDF of Ethics in Sports Study


Our pals in Madison finished with a rather pedestrian 67% (only 40% for African American players).

Another nice accomplishment by Marquette University, Tom Crean, the players and the academic staff.

Getting to Know Kentucky - By the Numbers

Here are the Important Numbers to Know about Kentucky. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

We're going to change up the format a bit because it's the NCAA Tournament -- note that earlier we did a sweep around the Internet to catch all of the day's best media updates.

Let's focus on UK right now:

Overall Pomeroy Rating of 61. That's one of the lowest for any at-large team in the NCAA tournament.
Adjusted tempo of 63.9 possessions / game (#281 in the country).

Kentucky's Offensive Efficiency (National rank of 95) Depends on:

• effective Field Goal % - Average of 52.6% (national rank of 62)
• Offensive Rebounding % - Average of 32.2 (national rank of 203)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky does well at eFG%, but how well they do offensively also depends on their ability to offensive rebound and prevent their opponents from getting to the line. Both areas are relatively weak for Kentucky.

Although it's not correlated with their offensive efficiency, Kentucky is also one of the best teams in the country at getting to the free throw line. They shoot a free throw 30.3% of the time that they take a field goal attempt (#25 in the country). Marquette is #264 in the country at preventing our opponents from getting to the free throw line.

Kentucky's Defensive Efficiency (national rank of 39) Depends on:

• Opponents' eFG% - Average of 44.9% (national rank of 21)
• Forcing Opponents Turnovers - Average of 19.5% (national rank of 252)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky's eFG% defense is actually very strong (more on this in a bit). However, just like offensive efficiency, their defensive strength comes from a weak area of forcing turnovers. Note that their ability to prevent opponents from getting to the free throw line affects both their offense and their defense. Marquette must get to the free throw line!

The Wildcat's eFG% defense is anchored by an exceptionally strong ability to limit 2-point field goals (#17 in the country) and to block shots (#33 in the country). If this sounds familiar, it's because it is similar to the strengths of Georgetown, Louisville, and Connecticut.

Combined with the free throw rate and yes, those are warning bells going off. The areas where Kentucky is strong are areas that Marquette has struggled this year. The key difference between Kentucky and the previously mentioned teams is that Kentucky also has a lot more exploitable weaknesses.

• Kentucky turns the ball over on more than 23% of all possessions (#291 in the country). That is sweet, sweet music for Marquette.
• Kentucky is mediocre at limiting opponents' offensive rebounds (#141 in the country). Although MU's OR% has been up and down this year, we are still #27 in the country, and our performance was very strong in the BET.
• As previously mentioned, Kentucky does a poor job of limiting opponents from getting to the free throw line.
• They also do a poor job of forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding.

Basically, the game will come down to how well Marquette forces turnovers/gets offensive rebounds vs how well Kentucky does at forcing a half-court game and preventing easy 2-point baskets.

How has Kentucky been Trending?

Here's a view of how Kentucky has been trending since the start of conference play. Conventional wisdom is that Kentucky has been playing well lately based on a record of 7-3 in their last 10 games. However, their offense and defense run in parallel paths. In other words, when the offense gets better, the defense gets worse (and vice versa).

For a long stretch (Vanderbilt -> Tennessee #2), their defense was worse than their offense. Teams don't win much when that happens, but yet Kentucky kept winning. Lately, their offense has been improving, but their defense has also been getting worse, although the team is still playing winning basketball. I would say that the conventional wisdom on Kentucky playing well is focusing more on their offensive improvements and less on defensive shortcomings.

Keep coming back regularly to Cracked Sidewalks, where we'll have lots more analysis and media updates.

NCAA 2008 media updates

Here's hoping the Cracked Sidewalks readership has a subdued, manageable work week -- after all, there's an NCAA tournament to prepare for.

Here are this morning's key media updates -- pls note that MU beat reporter Todd Rosiak will host a chat at 8pm CST on Tuesday live from Anaheim.

• Tipoff is scheduled for 1:30pm CDT on Thursday afternoon.
• Rosiak has tidbits from Selection Sunday, including details on Buzz Williams' past experience as an assistant with UK head coach Billy Gillispie.
• The Sporting News has a preview capsule for this opening round matchup. TSN figures this game is all about the guards, "The fun part will be watching four seasoned, upperclass guards go at it. Bradley and McNeal are two of the best in the nation. In what promises to be a defensive taffy pull out top, it'll almost surely come down to whether James or Crawford or someone unusual goes on a binge."
• The AP looks at UK earning a bid in Gillispie's first season at the helm in Lexington - on the heels of 11 wins in their last 13 games.
• In a dueling AP entry, Chris Jenkins looks at MU's reaction to the bid -- including relief at being healthy in March.
• Kentucky.com notes that UK fans 'drool' for a shot at revenge with MU. Drool, that sounds about right. HAHAHAHAHAHA
• The News-Enterprise looks at the matchup, where UK is looking forward to a 'fresh start' in the post season.
• Columnist John Clay calls KU's return to the NCAA tourney 'Hollywood Material'...as if the previous 16 consecutive appearances -- which included a handful of national titles -weren't noteworthy.
• Clay also has a blog to check out.
  
• Rosiak on MU v UK ..... with roles reversed from the 2003 scenario -- and now it is time for the program to take the next step. Amen to that.
• The Chicago Tribune's capsules of the South Region
• The Chicago Tribune's preview of the South Region. Marquette is both struggling and a potential Cinderella.
• ESPN (video link) breaks down the South Region.
• Here's an official bracket from the NCAA
• Over at MUScoop, poster MUDish has a great breakdown of UK and MU
  

In case you are interested, here's the complete line-up of games in Anaheim on Thursday, all times PDT:

No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Kentucky - 11:30 a.m
No. 3 Stanford vs. No. 14 Cornell - 25 minutes following
No. 8 Brigham Young vs. No. 9 Texas A&M - 4:25 p.m.
No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 16 Mississippi Valley State - 25 minutes following

Much more to come all week long..........

Marquette v Kentucky in round one of the 2008 NCAA tournament

UPDATED
Marquette (24-9) slides in as a #6 seed in the South Regional to face the #11 seed Kentucky Wildcats (18-12) on Thursday at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The winner gets #3 seed Stanford. 2008 marks the third consecutive NCAA appearance for Marquette, something it had not done in 28 years -- as we point out in this jog down memory lane.

The UK game looks to be a good matchup for Marquette. Kentucky turns the ball over more than just about any team in the nation, the Wildcats struggle on the offensive glass, and they will be without their best player - freshman big man Patrick Patterson (who averaged 16 points and nearly 8 boards before his season-ending injury in late February). We'll analyze the matchups throughout the week, so check back often.

This will be the 10th matchup between MU and UK in the NCAA tournament. MU fans fondly remember the last two games -- a win in 1994 to send the Golden Eagles to the Sweet 16, and a win in 2003 to punch a ticket to the Final Four. The 7,000+ UK fans online at their Rivals site might have a different perspective.

The Sporting News wonders if this is the year that MU can break through and earn an NCAA win - - check out their South Regional capsule. Reaction at MUScoop here.

Once again the Big East sent more teams to the tournament than any other league -- eight (GU #2, Louisville #3, Pitt #4, UConn #4, ND #5, WVU #7, Villanova #12). The Big Televen sent just four teams.

Game times will be announced on Monday. We'll keep you posted.

1980 ..... remember way back when?

1980 ....remember way back when? The United States hockey team pulled off the miracle of all miracles in Lake Placid while our Summer athletes boycotted the Moscow games. Ronald Reagan was elected president of the US. Interest rates and unemployment were horrific, gas lines often lasting more than an hour. Mt. St. Helens blew her top, John Lennon was murdered, two nations in the Middle East named Iran and Iraq started a war, millions watched Dallas to see who shot JR, the Empire Strikes Back was the highest grossing movie, the fax machine was introduced, and Pac Man became a hit at the arcade.



Cost of a new home: $76,400.00
Cost of a new car: $7210.00
Median Household Income: $17,710.00
Cost of a first-class stamp: $0.15
Cost of a gallon of regular gas: $1.25
Cost of a dozen eggs: $0.91
Cost of a gallon of Milk: $2.16
Dow Jones: 1000 high and 759 low
Unemployment 9.8%
Interest Rates: 13.5%
Tom Crean turned 13 years old
Sergio Garcia, Albert Pujols, Macaulay Calkin, Hank Blalock were all born
Alfred Hitchcock, Peter Sellers, Steve McQueen, and John Lennon all died
#1 song was "Please Don't Go" by KC and the Sunshine Band
#1 album was "The Wall" by Pink Floyd










Why bring this up...well 1980 was also the last time Marquette made the NCAA tournament three straight years. That's right, 28 years. The Hank Raymonds led club was the last to accomplish this feat capping a 13 year streak of NCAA invites (MU turned down the 1970 bid but was invited).

Congratulations to Marquette, Coach Crean and the players for bringing MU back to the big time and on a consistent basis.

Ray Floriani wraps up Marquette at MSG

The following is the latest contribution from Ray Floriani, a New Jersey-based freelance basketball reporter.
**********************************************

Marquette is out and home. Next is Selection Sunday where Tom Crean & co. will learn their seed, opponent and destination. A few observations on last night’s semifinal action.

Thought a big key to Pitt-Marquette was the Panthers getting out of the gate quickly. It’s tough to spot an opponent, especially the quality of Pitt, a double digit lead early in the contest.

Marquette showed a lot of grit and determination in battling back. What looked like a potential rout was a one possession game in the final minutes. Jerel McNeal continued his fine play through the tournament with 17 points. Dominic James scored his first points with 7:39 left in the game. James did finish with eight and every point was critical during the late game run.

While James struggled to score, thought Lazar Hayward came up with a nice game. The 6-6 sophomore scored 10 points while grabbing 6 boards. Hayward was effective from the perimeter as well as in the lane.

Sam Young. What can you say ? He’s had a great week and if the Panthers win tonight, should be the tournament MVP. The Pitt forward had a game high 22 points and a huge rebound with 34 seconds to go and the game still for the taking. The 6-6 junior is a tough matchup problem because he can take opponents off the dribble and is very strong inside. He was a major difference for Pitt.

Game was 67 possessions with Pitt enjoying a 102-91 efficiency advantage. Significant numbers (read more below) were Marquette’s 47% offensive rebounding percentage and Pitt‘s 16% turnover ratio. Marquette couldn’t match that last number with 8 assists 16 turnovers and a 24% TO rate.

Poise. Pitt thrives in the bright lights of MSG. They have a number of New York area players and love competing at the ‘world’s most famous arena’. Usually teams that surrender a significant lead will succumb to the pressure of the fast charging opponent and those bright lights which suddenly feel uncomfortably hot. Not the Panthers who treat the Garden as a second home.

Quotable: Jamie Dixon , the Pitt coach…”Marquette battled back and we were fortunate to win because they out rebounded us 47-32 and had 21 offensive boards. The big difference for us was taking care of the ball (11 turnovers).”

In the opener it was vintage Georgetown over West Virginia. Roy Hibbert went scoreless a day earlier against Villanova but tonight the Hoyas went to their big man early and often. Hibbert

Hoyas did a great job keeping fresh bodies on WVU’s Joe Alexander who had 12 points but struggled through a 5 of 16 shooting night.

Great to meet several fans and run into friends in the Marquette section. Always good to touch base and talk basketball in general with ’NY Warrior’.

Final note on Tom Crean. Ran into Jeff Nix a few times this week. A good friend Nix served a number of years in the Knick organization from assistant coach to scout and front office. Late this Summer he was let go in another colossal move of stupidity by the Knick organization. Seems Nix is involved helping out with Tom Crean’s radio show. “When it happened Tom was the first to call me,” Nix recalled . “He gave me the ’olive branch’ and said I could help with his show. That allowed me to get right back into it (the game ) again.”

Just another case of Crean the intense competitor showing his sincere caring off the floor.

Read why the Knicks fired Nix.

Panthers ground Golden Eagles in Big East Semis

Marquette's bid to reach its first Big East Tournament final fell short last night with a 68-61 loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers in Madison Square Garden.

Pittsburgh was led by the steady, productive Sam Young. Young, the best player in the BET this year, dominated the Golden Eagles on his way to 22 points and four rebounds in 39 minutes of action. Young was an impossible matchup for Marquette -- too big for Jerel McNeal, too quick for Dwight Burke.

The Panthers, who never trailed, raced out to a 16-4 lead early and held MU comfortably at bay for most of the night. The Golden Eagles closed to within three points in the game's final minute but the Panthers, who shot an impressive 49% from the field, always had an answer.

Meanwhile the MU offense struggled all night. The Golden Eagles shot a miserable 31% from the field and lost the turnover battle (16-11). MU out-rebounded the Panthers 41-30.

Marquette was led once more by Jerel McNeal with 17 points. Wesley Matthews and Lazar Hayward each chipped in 10 points, while Dominic James finished with eight. Dwight Burke played well off the bench again last night, grabbing a team-high ten rebounds to go along with four points.

Emotions ran high for Marquette in the second half, and lead official Tim Higgins threw gasoline on the fire (did he or didn't he try to eject Jerel McNeal -- the subject of a pair of lousy calls by the silver-haired court master). The predictably thin-skinned Higgins clearly came unglued in the midst of an emotional game and delivered an embarrassing effort on national television, which is nothing new. Rosiak details all of this in his entry linked below.

Regardless, in the end the Panthers were the better team on Friday night and Sam Young was the best player on the floor.

Next up for MU (24-9) is Selection Sunday where the Golden Eagles hope to claim a #4 seed. The Bracket Project has MU slotted as a 6.

AP recap
Box Score
Rosiak's recap
Rosiak's outstanding blog recap

Bring On Pittsburgh!

UPDATED
After the rubber match against Notre Dame yielded a Marquette Victory, MU Nation now readies themselves for a semi-final game against Pittsburgh. Game time is tonight on ESPN at 8:30 Milwaukee time.

There was a certain pep in our steps after finding out that Pitt had defeated Louisville. After all, let's face it... Louisville pretty much wiped the floor with Marquette both times. However, in our first game, Marquette thumped Pitt. In addition, Marquette has a recent record of 4-2 against Pitt and we match up fairly well. There is a decent chance that MU can end up in the Big East finals.

However, Pitt enters this game having won five of their last six games, including a stunning win at Syracuse and last night's overtime victory against Louisville. In last night's game, Sam Young contributed 21 points and 12 rebounds. Young was selected as the Big East Most Improved Player, and was also the Cracked Sidewalks choice as well. If nothing else, in their last five games, Pitt defeated two teams against whom Marquette struggled mightily.

As a blog commenter noted, that first game was Levance Fields' first game back after injury, and he was ineffectual. Since that point, he has worked his way back into the full rotation. As the starting PG, Fields does a great job protecting the ball, which will make it harder to force as many turnovers. Furthermore, the Pitt fan base travels well, and will certainly comprise the majority of cheering fans tonight. There is a lot going well for Pitt right now, and they will also have the motivational edge of exacting revenge for the last game. Do not expect that tonight's game will have the same blowout result as the game at the Bradley Center!

What led to our victory against Pitt? Looking at the Pittsburgh Numbers Recap, we can see that Marquette had an edge in every single one of the four factors. Marquette also dominated on defense, holding Pitt to an efficiency far worse than normal. Marquette shot extremely well, forced Pitt into far more turnovers than normal, and turned the game into one at MU's tempo. Not that it had anything to do with the victory, but this was also the game that Trevor Mbakwe was first cleared to play.

For tonight's game, not much is different than the first Game Preview for Pittsburgh. Pitt remains a team with a stronger offense than defense, highlighted by their ferocity on the offensive glass and stinginess with turnovers.

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Pittsburgh.

• 118.2 - The Offensive Efficiency that Pitt averages on Offense
• That's #12 in the country, at 1.18 points / possession
• 242 - Pitt's national rank at pace
• Pitt plays one of the slowest paces in D1, and they have to.
  
• Their defense is correlated with pace, meaning that the slower the tempo the better their defense
• 67 - Pitt's national rank at defense
• Despite a good showing against Louisville, don't believe the hype about the Pittsburgh defense!
• Only once in the last ten games has their defense been better than average (below 100), although it was last night
  
• Pitt wins games on the offensive end of the court
• 9 - Pitt's national rank at Offensive Rebounding Percentage
• Pitt grabs almost 40% of all potential offensive rebounds. That's obviously pretty good.
• 18.7% - Pitt's turnover rate on offense
• That's #37 in the country
  
• When we played them last, Pitt was harassed into a turnover rate of 23%

The formula for Marquette to beat Pitt is simple. Force turnovers, push the pace, and keep them off the offensive glass. Even with the return of Fields, Marquette matches up well in all of those areas, so expect a much tighter game than last time but a Marquette victory.

edit: Added information about Levance Fields

McNeal Destroys Notre Dame

UPDATED

Jerel McNeal went off for 28 points to defeat #14 Notre Dame in the 2nd round of the BET, in what is the biggest post-season victory for Marquette in the Post-Wade era. Marquette beat the hated Domers 89-79.

Marquette, down 10 early in the 2nd half, came roaring back to take and keep a 10 point lead. MU scored a whopping 57 points in the 2nd half. MU shot a blistering 52% for the night.

McNeal was beyond superlative, hitting 9 for 16, including 4 for 7 from long range. Lazar chipped in 16 and James 10. DJ had 10 points and you take a line score of 10/6/6 any day of the week.

Mo Acker started slow, missing his first couple shots, but he heated up, collecting 11 points with several daggers in the final 5 minutes.

Barro did a very decent job guarding ND's Harangody, who ended up with 13.

Marquette will face Pittsburgh, as the Panthers upset Louisville, who most picked to win the BET. Same Bat-Time, Same Bat-Channel. 8:30 CST, ESPN.

Marquette white-washed Pittsburgh last month, beating them at the Bradley Center by 18 points. Pitt may have some tired legs, using 8 players in their OT win. MU used 11 players tonight, in regulation.

Fire up, Marquette!

• Wrap/Official Box Score
• Video Highlights
• Chicago Tribune's coverage of the game (mostly from an ND perspective)
• Separate story on McNeal by the Chicago Tribune
• Rosiak's Recap
• Rosiak's blog focuses more on the favorable matchups from the 6th seed. Lots of good stuff in Rosiak's blog (as usual)
• ESPN's video highlights of the game

Round 1 of our Big East Tourney Pickem is completed

First, on behalf of MUSCOOP.com and CRACKEDSIDEWALKS.com...thanks for joining.

532 entrants this year, surpassing last year by a ton.



The results are up and can be found at the link below with several reports to choose from.


With such a limited number of teams, you can imagine there is a huge tie for first place. The reports will tell you how many points you have, what you can finish with, what the scenarios are for you to choose from, if you've been eliminated from a top 50 position and so on. Of course, there are no prizes so the 50 number doesn’t really mean anything. :)

Interesting to note that Louisville was the slam dunk prediction to win with 293 entrants choosing them. UCONN was second and conference champ G'Town was picked 3rd most.

http://pickem.muscoop.com/reportpackage.html

The link above is where you will go each day to get the results.

Thanks again

MU advances to play Notre Dame in the BET

MU overcame the feisty Seton Hall Pirates 67-54 to advance to the quarterfinal round of the Big East tourney. In one of the ugliest games in recent memory, Jerel McNeal's sublime performance was the difference. The slashing guard led MU with 21 points, hauled in 9 boards and dished out four assists. Dominic James landed up with 11 points, five boards and four steals -- each of which came in the last three minutes of regulation to help seal the victory. Lazar Hayward came through with a big second half, earning another double/double with 15 and 10.

The story of the night was offensive rebounding where MU snared 21 boards on their way to a 52-29 advantage on the glass. Despite that dominance, MU was unable to convert consistently (the Golden Eagles only shot 34% from the floor) and was miserable at the charity stripe (20-35, 57%).

Survive and advance.

Seton Hall Media Updates

• Box Score
• AP recap
• Rosiak's recap
• Adam Zagoria blogs the game
• Ray Floriani on Day One at the BET
• Rosiak's blog on the night
  

With the win, Marquette improves to 23-8 on the season and will lace'em up against the Notre Dame Fightin' Irish tonight at 8pm CST. Marquette and Notre Dame split the regular season matchups with each team winning at home. Here's a quick look back:

MU/ND Game One
MU knocks off ND - game recap.
MU knocks off ND --numbers recap.

ND knocks off MU - game recap
ND knocks off MU -- numbers recap.

Ray Floriani reports from Day One of the BET

NEW YORK CITY - After almost twelve hours of basketball we found out the higher seeds ‘held serve’ for the first time this century. You have to go to 1997 to find the last time there wasn’t at least one upset in the Big East Tournament’s opening round.

General stat notes…

Best offensive efficiency of the day - Villanova 116
Poorest offensive efficiency - Seton Hall 77
Slowest paced contest - PC- West Virginia a 64 possession game.
Fastest pace - ‘Nova-Syracuse 71 possessions

The keys to Marquette’s victory over Seton Hall per Tom Crean were rebounding and Jerel McNeal. Marquette owned the boards 56-37. The edge was 25-13 off the offensive glass, In fact Marquette had 25 offensive boards while the Hall had 24 defensive rebounds. Marquette‘s ORB percentage was an obscene 51%. Marquette’s board prowess played no small part in fouling out three Seton Hall frontcourt players.

Last season McNeal was on the sidelines with an injury. Against the Hall he had a 21 point, 9 rebound, 4 assist night. Just a sterling all-around effort. His 9 boards were more than any Seton Hall player.

Crean didn’t mention it but Marquette took great care of the ball (15% TO rate) against a team that likes to pressure. Thought the Marquette mentor made a great move early second half. Guards did most of the scoring for the Golden Eagles the first 20 minutes so Crean called Lazar Hayward’s number down low the initial two possessions after intermission. Gets the big man involved and gives the Hall something else to worry about on D.

Tough question. Bobby Gonzalez was asked about his thoughts regarding Commissioner Mike Tranghese saying , on Tuesday, that the Big East would investigate his behavior this past Sunday. Gonzalez said, “no comment. I’m just here to talk about the fine effort these kids had tonight and we have conducted ourselves with class all year.” Whatever. Let’s just say Gonzalez was a model citizen on the bench tonight.

Marquette and Notre Dame have met 110 times but never in New York. They will have that initial get together in the Big East quarterfinals.

Among those in the house was former Cincinnati and NBA great Oscar Robertson. Want to guess how much the Big O could command in today’s NBA market ?

**Ray Floriani is a New Jersey-based freelance basketball reporter.

Round 3: Marquette takes on Seton Hall in MSG

UPDATED
The sixth-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles will take on the 11th seeded Seton Hall Pirates in the opening round of the 2008 Big East Championship on Wednesday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 8pm CST on ESPN.

Marquette beat the Hall twice during the regular season. At the Bradley Center in January, MU outlasted the Pirates in an ugly, low-scoring affair, 61-56. Home cooking was no better for the Pirates as MU raced out to a 30-10 lead and never looked back, coming away with an 89-64 win.

Seton Hall arrives at MSG in a world of hurt. The Pirates have lost three in a row and eight of ten, including a gut-wrenching loss to rival Rutgers to close the regular season. The RU loss threw SHU head coach Bobby Gonzalez for a loop, leading to a series of embarrassing remarks during and after that game.

Perhaps Marquette can take advantage of the death spiral that is building around the Pirates' season. The Golden Eagles (22-8, 11-7) finished the conference season with back-to-back losses, and will look to recapture the momentum that carried the team to a five-game win streak through much of February.

The most interesting matchup pits Dominic James against SHU's resident thug, senior guard Jamar Nutter. It was Nutter who delivered a harsh intentional foul on James back in January, a collision that injured the Marquette point guard's wrist hindering his play for weeks. Nutter continued the rough play with a forearm shiver to James' chops during the Hall's embarrassing home loss to MU, earning an ejection from the game. Will Nutter go for the three-peat?

For a quick reminder on how MU won the first two meetings, look inside the numbers:

• Seton Hall numbers recap, Game 1 where MU won despite one of its worse offensive performances of the season.
• Seton Hall numbers recap, Game 2 where MU delivered a devastating offensive performance highlighted by Yeoman's work on the offensive glass.

Key Numbers to Watch

• Seton Hall protects the ball exceptionally well, turning it over just 16.7% of the time -- good for 9th in the country. Meanwhile, MU forces opponents to cough the ball up nearly 25% of the time. If MU wins the turnover battle, the path to victory will be clearer.
• The Pirates are a middle of the road offensive team, only generating an eFG% of 48% - - 228 teams are more efficient than the Hall.
• Defense continues to be a problem for the Pirates who allow opponents a horrendous 51.6% eFG percentage (248th in the nation). Moreover the Hall cedes the glass with little fight - the Pirates are 314th in the nation in preventing offensive rebounds.

The net: If MU turns the Hall over and attacks the offensive glass, expect good things for the Golden Eagles. If not, we could be in for a nail biter against a lesser opponent.

Media Links

• Marquette game notes
• Big East Basketball Report preview
• Asbury Park Press
• Chicago Tribune preview (hello DePaul fans!)
• Star-Ledger preview focuses on Eugene Harvey
• Rosiak on the Nutter/James drama
  
• The Buffalo News profiles the maturing Lazar Hayward
• BIG EAST CAST delivers an outsanding podcast preview of the BET
  

Media Updates

UPDATED
Just a few quick links before things kick off tomorrow night.

Basketball Prospectus previews the conference tourneys for the Big East, as well as Conference USA, Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and the Pac-10. Marquette is given a 90% chance of beating Seton Hall and a 56% chance of making it to the semi's. Our odds of winning the whole tournament? 15%! Pomeroy also says:

I believe Marquette would be the first team to go 4-0 in two different conference tourneys if they were to pull this off. Back in '97, they won the CUSA Tourney by winning four games in four days.

Dwyane Wade's season is over. If you didn't catch it this morning, Steve Novak was also on the front of espn.com.

The JSOnline Weekly Marquette Report (still not calling it Golden Eagles) covers who is Hot and who is Not

Rosiak's preview calls Seton Hall a good matchup, and discusses how our current draw in the Big EAST tournament is favorable. Concerned about winning three times in one season against an opponent? According to Spiral97 at MUScoop.com, in 2007 a team that won the first two games ended up winning 71.4% of the time.

The Journal-Sentinel also published their All-State Starting Five CB Team, and Dominic James was left off of the list. Michael Flowers was named Player of the Year, so good for him. Frankly, I really can't quibble with Dominic James being left off the list. He finished third in cumulative net points for Marquette at 81.2 pts, just behind Lazar Hayward (82.8 pts) and Jerel McNeal (98.0 points). However, I do have to wonder how much of this is due to the fact that James has had two highly criticized games in the last week. Is this just an example of recency bias?

Former Marquette recruiting target Frank Ben-Eze has decommitted from Harvard, according to the NY Times. Although, Marquette is already one player over the signing limit, there is a good chance we'll see him more in the future. Connecticut, Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, DePaul and Rutgers have already inquired about Ben-Eze's availability.

The Bracket Project, an aggregation of NCAA seeding prognostications, has MU listed as a 6 seed right now.

Finally, The Big East Basketball Report posted its annual post-season bloggers' all conference selections. Click here to check it out.

Here's a look at the 2007-2008 Cracked Sidewalks All-Big East ballot:

Big East POY
Luke Harangody: toughest player in the Big East

FIRST TEAM
Roy Hibbert .... best player on the best team in the league
Donte Greene .... high energy, productive player
AJ Price ... finally arrives as the player many expected to see years ago
Kyle McAlarney ...... exceptional bounce back season
Terrence Williams ..... best all-around player in the league

SECOND TEAM
Jerel McNeal .... one of the league's best disruptors
Dominic James ... played through injury and turned in a productive season
Kentrell Gransberry .... a beast on the blocks
Deonta Vaughn ... key to the surprising Bearcats
Jeff Adrien .... an absolute load for the Huskies

THIRD TEAM
Sam Young ..... versatile forward led the Panthers
David Padgett .... Ville's most vital player?
Jerry Smith ..... solid all-around performer
Jonathan Wallace .... under-appreciated talent
Scottie Reynolds .... somewhat of a sophomore slump but still among the best

Big East Freshman of the Year
Dante Greene

All-Freshman FIRST TEAM
Jonny Flynn
Dominique Jones
DaJuan Blair
Mac Koshwal
Dar Tucker

All-Freshman SECOND TEAM
Austin Freeman
Justin Burrell
Mike Coburn
Antonio Pena
Corey Fisher

Coach of the Year
John Thompson

Defensive Player of the Year
Hasheem Thabeet

Most Improved Player
Sam Young

4th annual Big East Tournament Pool Party

Welcome back to this year's version of the Big East Tournament Pool. It's free again (sorry, no prizes...just for fun). Last year we had 426 fellow Big East folks join.

This is sponsored again by MUscoop, one of the leading MU basketball communities, and the crew here at Cracked Sidewalks.

Picks are due by 11:59am Wednesday morning.

The bracket link is below. Don't use your real name, just make up a nickname. Everything is fairly self explanatory.

1 point for first round picked correctly

2 points for second round

4 points for semis

8 points for picking the champ


Points in the final is the first tie breaker

Click here to jump into the pool

Good luck

Syracuse Numbers Recap

Don't know what all of these numbers mean? Take a look at our explanation for Team Stats and Individual Stats first.

Four Factors Review

Despite looking lost and confused for much of the game against the Syracuse 2-3 zone, Marquette had an about average day offensively. It was worse than our season average, but still not that bad. As evidenced by the 118.2 efficiency that Syracuse achieved, this was a game lost on the defensive end. Interestingly enough, although Syracuse is one of the top teams in the country at offensive rebounding percentage, that was the only one of the four factors that Marquette won. Thanks to their dominating inside presence, Syracuse was able to achieve an eFG% of 63%. In addition, Syracuse enjoyed a notable advantage at Free Throw Rate.

What really hurts, however, was that Marquette lost the Turnover Rate battle. Remember that for the season, Syracuse averages a turnover rate of 21.2%, so they did better than that against our vaunted defense. This is an aspect that Marquette almost always wins.

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Trends


First of all, please note that none of these numbers include results against Florida Gulf Coast. It was a cupcake game, it skews the numbers, and I don't think that it's representative of how well the team is playing. The story is not pretty here. Marquette is heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time. Our offense and our defense are both getting worse.

Underachieving

Our final Big EAST numbers for Offensive and Defensive Efficiency are 104.8 (Offense) and 98.9 (Defense). A team with those offensive and defensive numbers should have a final record of 11.9 - 6.1. Given that Marquette finished with a final record of 11-7, this means that the team underachieved.

effective Field Goal Percentage Trends

Hey, look! More bad news. Our offensive and defensive effective Field Goal percentages are also heading in the wrong directions again. Not only that, but...

Offensive Rebounding Trends

... the roller coaster that has been our offensive rebounding percentage is once again on the decline. Our offensive rebounding is getting worse and our opponents' offensive rebounding is getting better.

Individual Player Ratings

The only player that had a decent game was Jerel McNeal, but this is also an area where the defensive ratings fall short. Because the Box Score doesn't capture the number of times that Donte Greene scored an easy post-up basket on McNeal, his defensive ratings show up well. Everyone else pretty much had a hand in the seventeen point loss, and the worst impact on the game came from our floor general.

Summary

I'm decidedly bearish on Marquette's prospects for the post-season. Almost all of the numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and our team's strengths are in decline. The team has even underachieved according to those numbers. Not only that, but ignoring the numbers, Marquette is still only 3-8 against the RPI Top 50 teams. I'm not trying to be "doom and gloom" here, but if MU was a stock, I'd short it. It's too bad that fanhood isn't something that people can just dump and eliminate losses.

Of course, tomorrow is a new day, and the Big EAST Tournament is another chance to start fresh. Looks like we're going to face Seton Hall (according to Rosiak) for the third time this season. Game time will be 8 pm on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden.

MU Ends Season with Thumping at Syracuse

Marquette, a pre-season Top 10 team, was picked to compete for the Big East Title, instead ended the season with a whimper, losing at Syracuse by fifteen, 87-72.

Marquette could not stop Syracuse's starters, two of whom hit 20+ points, and 4 hit double digits. Syracuse shot a blistering 58%. On the other side of the court, Syracuse served up a 2-3 zone that, for the 800th time, has proven to be Marquette's kryptonite.

Jerel McNeal had 22 points and 6 rebounds, the only bright spot for Marquette.

While my prediction to finish the BE season 11-7 was derided as pessimistic the time, it turned out to be spot on. Marquette returned their entire 10-6 team from last year, but the team I observed in practices and pre-season scrimmages this year appeared to have the exact same strengths and weaknesses as last year's squad. Same team = same results.

However .. while the team met my "expectations" I am disappointed, as they were low expectations. 5 of our 7 BE losses were blowout-double-digit thumpings. 9 of our 11 wins came against the lower half of the Big East. While we had no "bad" losses, we had few wins versus quality teams, winning 3 of 11 games versus Top 50, a stat that does not bode well for the NCAA Tournament.

Many thought we'd compete for the Big East Title. Instead, we ended firmly in the middle of the pack. Three years of the "Big 3" have gained us a 4th place finish, 5th place, and now 6th place. Time is slipping away.

Marquette has locked up the #6 seed in the BET, and should play 8pm CST on Wednesday, most likely versus Seton Hall, who MU beat twice this year. A second round matchup versus Notre Dame is predicted, which is much better than if we were a #5 seed, playing UConn in the 2nd round

AP Wrap / Official Box / Play by Play

Marquette Closes Out Regular Season Against Syracuse

Fresh off of a dominating defensive victory over Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette (22-7, 11-6) now readies itself for their final regular season game of the year. On Saturday, Marquette will face a Syracuse squad that is 18-12 (8-9). The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 3 pm Milwaukee time. John Saunders and Len Elmore will be on the sidelines for MU's 13th national broadcast of the season.

The Orange are firmly off the bubble, but are looking to close out with a strong run and hopeful NCAA berth. In fact, Andy Katz has an article talking about Syracuse and the bubble. Due to injuries, the 'Cuse have been relying on seven players, including some talented freshmen and sophomores. At this point, Syracuse is a team that has been backed into a corner, so Marquette will have a very difficult time emerging with the win.

On the other hand, despite the heartbreaking loss to Georgetown, Marquette has mostly been playing well in the last seven games. This is especially true on the defensive end, and MU wants to recapture momentum heading into the post season. If nothing else, a loss to Syracuse will result in the team finishing sixth in the Big East (behind West Virginia). Barring an extended run in the Big East Tournament, a loss will almost certainly cost Marquette a seed in the NCAA tournament. For a fan base that is craving for the team to fulfill expectations of postseason success, good seeding will play a major role.

After players return from injuries, and Boeheim welcomes a solid recruiting class, the true window for Syracuse will be next year anyways. Let's look for Marquette to extinguish 'Cuse's NCAA hopes tomorrow. Our window is this year.

Top Five Numbers to Know about Syracuse
As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 26 - Syracuse's national rank at pace
• The Orange play one of the quicker tempos in Division 1 at just under 72 possessions per game
• Pace is actually positively correlated with Syracuse's offensive efficiency. In other words, the quicker the pace for the game the better Syracuse does offensively.
• Considering that they play their vaunted 2-3 zone and typically only utilize seven players, this is actually somewhat of a puzzle
• 21.6% - This is the Turnover Rate that Syracuse has on offense
• The 'Cuse have a national rank of 204
• As we have previously discussed, this is a good sign for Marquette's defense
• 19 - Syracuse's rank at Offensive Rebounding Percentage
• The Orange are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country
• Marquette needs to do a good job on the defensive glass
• 10 - Syracuse's national rank for block percentage
• Syracuse averages a block rate of 15.5%
• In the past, Marquette has struggled against teams that do a good job of blocking shots (UConn, Louisville, Georgetown)
• However, the rest of Syracuse's defense is only average (rank of 116)
  
• 53.8% - The field goal percentage that Syracuse averages on two-point baskets
• This is a rank of 14 among Division 1 schools
• A lot of this is due to the efforts of 6'9" sophomore Arinze Onuaku, who has an personal effective Field Goal Percentage of 64.7%. That's 17th best in the country.
• In contrast, Syracuse only averages 33.3% from three point land, which is only 247th in the country

In summary, Syracuse's strengths are their inside play. They do an excellent job of scoring two-point baskets, collecting offensive rebounds, and blocking shots. However, their overall defense is only average. In addition, although Syracuse likes to play a faster pace, this won't seem to harm Marquette. Look for the key to this game to hinge on how well our defense pressures Syracuse into more turnovers than they usually commit. Of course, this is no different than our usual game plan, but even more so given the Syracuse zone.

Media Updates (stay tuned for more links)

• ESPN 360 Preview of the Game
• GoMarquette.com preview
• Game Notes from GoMarquette.com
• Rosiak's Blog is live from Syracuse
  

How to Read Numbers Recaps - Individual Stats

In Part One of "How to Read Numbers Recaps", we looked the breakdown of the team-based stats. After all, basketball is primarily a team game. However, there is obviously a view of how well individual players contribute to the team's success. We attempt to capture this view through the individual ratings.

Below is the basic table that we look at after every game. It may seem busy, because even the walk-ons played, but there is a lot of information contained within this table. For this example, we are going to use the game against Florida Gulf Coast (3/4/08).


What do all of these categories mean, anyways?

Minutes - Self-explanatory

Usage - Usage is the percentage of total possessions that a player consumes. If the game has 67 possessions, how many of those 67 possessions does each player use? Typically, usage shouldn't be any higher than 20-25%. The general idea is that the higher a player's usage, the less efficient they become. It's rare that someone can combine a high usage with a high offensive rating, and these types of players are superstars (like Michael Jordan).

Offensive Rating (ORtg) - Offensive Rating is based on several elements. A player's offensive rating revolves around their role in the offense, how important assists are to their efforts, and how well they do at scoring field goals. On a per-game view, Offensive Ratings should always be compared against the team Offensive Efficiency. If the player has a higher score than the team Offensive Efficiency, then they boosted the average. If the player has a lower score than the team, then that player was a drag on the offense. This higher the offensive rating, the better that player did.

Individual Points Produced - Consider the following scenario: Dominic James makes an assist to Ousmane Barro, who then scores. The team gets two points, but both DJ and Barro should get some credit for producing the two points. After all, Barro doesn't score unless DJ gets him the assist. How does one divide up the credit for the two points? What about the role of offensive rebounds in producing points? Individual points produced attempts to answer these types of questions. Players who get offensive rebounds or give lots of assists get more credit for producing points. Players who receive lots of assists get docked on producing points.

Defensive Rating (DRtg) - Defensive rating is somewhat limited in its capability, and is best used as an approximation. After all, box scores do not presently show any statistics for scenarios where a player is guarded and then misses or makes a shot. Therefore, what is done is to baseline defensive stats off of the team Defensive Efficiency, because the team plays defense. Then, individual player stats are used to adjust individual defensive rating. A player gets credit for defensive statistics like steals, blocks, or defensive rebounds, or they get dinged for committing fouls or not collecting defensive statistics. The lower the defensive rating, the larger the impact that player had on the game.

Net Points Added - In the Florida Gulf Coast game, Marquette ended up winning by a margin of thirty points. Which players had the greatest impact on that win margin? The answer is found in Net Points Added. In every Individual numbers recap, the players are sorted based on net points added from highest to lowest. If a player is positive net points, that player had a positive impact on the game. If a player is negative net points, that player had a negative impact on the game. For the most accurate view, this should always be viewed in the context of Net Points and Individual Points Produced.

Final Note - The total points produced and the total net points added will not always add up to the actual final tally of points and win margin. That's because basketball is a team game and the "team" has to get credit for some of these results too.

Let's look at some examples...

Example - Good production (Lazar Hayward)

In the game, Lazar had box score statistics of 18 points on 6-12 shooting (3-5 from three, 3-6 on FT). He had 11 rebounds (3 offensive), one foul, one turnover, and two steals.

• Lazar had a usage of about 18%, which is around one-fifth of all possessions in the game
• His offensive rating of 116.3 was better than the team average
• Despite scoring 18 points, Lazar only gets credit for producing 13.8 points
• Lazar's defensive rating was much better than the team's defensive efficiency, largely thanks to his eight defensive rebounds
• Out of the 13.8 points produced, Lazar's net impact on the game was 10.4 points of win margin
  

Example - Poor production (David Cubillan)

I'm not picking on Cubillan... he just had the lowest net points score from this game. In the game, David had zero points on 0-1 shooting (0-1 from three), with one assist, one turnover, and one steal.

• David had a very limited usage in the game at less than 3%
• His offensive rating was much worse than the team average
• Despite not scoring, he gets 0.6 points credit from his assist
• David's defensive rating was also worse than the team average
• His net impact on the game was negative 1.8 points. This means that the other players on the team had to contribute more in order to overcome this negative impact

That's the view for how we determine individual player ratings. Most of our detailed graphs and charts on players reference a player's trends on ORtg, DRtg, and Net Points. We'll go ahead and place these articles on the front page so that they can also be referenced in the future. Now, let's get ready for the next game.

How to Read Numbers Recaps - Team Stats

We're going to do something a little different today. The purpose of this article, besides just a recap on Florida Gulf Coast, is to give an overview of the various stats we use and what they mean. In other words, how does one read the numbers recaps? We'll do the review in two parts, team and individual. This is the team overview.

Background on Basketball Statistics

The Four Factors come from the work done by Dean Oliver, whose book "Basketball on Paper" is like Moneyball for basketball. A lot of the work done by Ken Pomeroy is based on the fundamentals of Dean Oliver. All of the analysis that we do is based on his book as well.

The basic premise is that there are Four Factors that dictate how well a team does. The principles are Field Goal Percentage, Turnovers, Offensive Rebounds, and Free Throws. These are all fundamentals of basketball. However, the key difference for the Four Factors is that they've been modified to reflect possession-based statistics. In other words, a team that plays an extremely slow pace (Georgetown - 62 possessions / game) can now be compared to a team that plays at an extremely fast pace (Tennessee - 72 possessions / game). The team's points per game are not comparable, but their points per possession may be comparable.

What's a possession anyways?

A possession is anything that ends the action on the offensive end of the court. Any field goal attempt, any turnover, or even a Free Throw Attempt is a possession. Offensive rebounds negate possessions (because the player extends action on the offensive end of the court). The simplified equation to calculate possessions is FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA. Pretty basic, right?

Four Factor Review (Example - Florida Gulf Coast Game 3/4/08)


Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

The first thing to start with is the Efficiency review. Whichever team wins the Efficiency battle wins the game 100% of the time. Efficiency is as simple as how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. Another format of this is just points / possessions.

Against Florida Gulf Coast, we scored 67 points in just around 66 possessions. That works out to 1.01 points / possession, or an Offensive Efficiency of 100.9. Typically, an Offensive Efficiency of 100 is average, and an Offensive Efficiency above 110 is considered good. Therefore, our offensive output was around average.

Florida Gulf Coast scored only 37 points in 64 possessions, which is 0.58 points per possession, or an MU Defensive Efficiency of 58. Obviously, the lower a team's Defensive Efficiency, the better it did. I usually consider 90 to be the threshold for a poor efficiency outing, so FGC did not do very well at all, thanks to Marquette's defense.

Rating Teams and Tracking Trends

Pomeroy rates all of the teams on the basis of Efficiency Margin. This is simply the difference between Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency. In this game, our Efficiency Margin was 42.9 because the game was a blowout. In games that are fairly close, the Efficiency Margin is obviously close as well.

At Cracked Sidewalks, we track a moving average of Marquette's efficiencies to provide a view of how well the team is playing throughout the season. One always wants to see trends of Marquette's offensive efficiency sloping up, and of Marquette's defensive efficiency sloping down. In addition, by looking at the Efficiency breakdown following a game, one can tell if it was a game decided on the offensive end of the court (both teams with efficiencies above 100) or the defensive end (both teams with efficiencies less than 100).

The Four Factors

effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) - This is the same as regular Field Goal Percentage, but it takes into consideration the extra value of a three point basket. The example I always use is that a team gets the same amount of points (12) if they shoot 4/12 from three as if they shot 6/12 from inside the arc. eFG% adds in the extra value.

This is the most important of the four factors and it plays the greatest role in determining which team wins. I usually look above 55% as a good outing, and below 45% as a poor outing. Against, Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette won the effective Field Goal battle at 52.1%. Our game FG% was 45.8%. The formula for this calculation is (FGM + 0.5*3PM) / FGA.

Turnover Rate (TO Rate) - Turnover Rate is turnovers / possessions. A turnover rate of 20% is considered average. Less than 20% is considered good, and higher than 20% is considered bad. Against Marquette, Florida Gulf Coast turned the ball over 39% of the time, or one out of every two-three possessions. Marquette also did a poor job protecting the ball in this game.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) - This is a little more sophisticated than just looking at total rebounds or a comparison of offensive rebounds between teams. The basic idea is that every defensive rebound is a potential offensive rebound (and vice versa). Consider for example:

• Team A misses forty shots, and grabs 15 offensive rebounds. This means that the opponent secured 25 defensive rebounds. OR% for Team A is 37.5% = 15 / (15 +25)
  
• Team B misses thirty shots, and grabs 15 offensive rebounds. This means that the opponent secures 15 defensive rebounds. OR% for Team B is 50% = 15 / (15 + 15)
  

In each situation, the team pulled down 15 offensive rebounds. However, the offensive rebounding percentage is completely different. Team B dominated the Offensive Rebounding Percentage by obtaining half of all possible rebounds.

Against FGC, we had 10 offensive rebounds and they had 17 defensive rebounds. Our OR% was 37.0% = 10 / (10 + 17). Florida Gulf Coast had 13 offensive rebounds and we had 23 defensive rebounds. FGC's OR% was 36.1% = 13 / (13 + 23). Even though Florida Gulf Coast had more offensive rebounds, we did better at offensive rebounding percentage (marginally).

Free Throw Rate (FTR) - There are a couple different ways of looking at Free Throw Rate. For consistency, the equation is Free Throw Attempts / Field Goal Attempts. In other words, what percent of the time did a field goal result in a free throw attempt? Against FGC, we took 24 free throw attempts against 48 field goal attempts. FGC took 10 free throw attempts against 47 field goal attempts.

In our next view, we'll take a look at how to read the individual player ratings through the FGC review.

Eagles top Eagles

Marquette stomped on FGCU last night 67-37 to improve to 22-7 on the season. Lazar Hayward led MU with 18 points and 11 rebounds.

In their final home game, the MU seniors:

• Barro: 7 points, 8 boards in 22 minutes
• Fitzgerald: 3 points, 3 boards in 21 minutes
• Blackledge: 4 points, 3 rebounds in 8 minutes
• Brice: 2 minutes and a pack of donuts

Thanks fellas.

MU resumes the season on Saturday with a visit to the Carrier Dome.

Here are two videos .. one is the Senior Montage they put together .. update: TT grabbed the video off TWS in near perfect format.



The other video is the introductions and speeches from each Senior.



AP recap

Senior Day: Marquette hosts FGCU

On Tuesday night the Marquette Golden Eagles (21-7, 11-6 in the Big East) wrap up their home schedule when they host the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (10-20, 6-10 in the Atlantic Sun).

OK........look, this game will not come ready-made with adrenaline like last weekend's thrilla against the Hoyas. FGCU was a Blue & Gold Classic commit before that event circled the drain, so MU slotted the game into the last week of the season to jack up the ol' post-season resume. Some are asking 'what is the point of this game' -- here are some answers from the community at MUScoop.

Big deal, the point is that Tuesday is Senior Night for a group of players who have collectively worked their fannies off to represent Marquette exceptionally well on and off the court. So, if you live local get to the BC tonight to thank these four soon-to-be MU graduates:

Ousmane Barro
The lone four-year member of this year's senior class, Ousmane Barro is one of the most experienced players in school history. He has appeared in 120 career games, earning 61 starting assignments, and is currently ranked among the program's top all-time performers in blocks and field goal percentage. He has swatted 91 opposing shot attempts since his arrival in Milwaukee to rank 8th all-time and his 55.9 percent clip from the floor is currently second all-time.



Lawrence Blackledge
He has appeared in 40 career games, earning one starting assignment since arriving from the junior college ranks. He owns game averages of 1.7 points and 1.5 rebounds per outing and has connected on 53.6 percent of his shot opportunities. He is second on the team in 2007-08 in blocks.


Dan Fitzgerald
Forward Dan Fitzgerald will conclude his career at Marquette as one of the top long-distance shooters in program history. He is currently ranked seventh all-time in 3-point field goal percentage (40.8 percent) and owns 107 treys since transferring from Tulane. He has appeared in 88 career games with 17 starts and has knocked down numerous key baskets for the Golden Eagles during his tenure.


Tommy Brice
Tommy Brice has appeared in 21 career games for the Golden Eagles during the past three seasons. He owns a personal-best eight appearances in 2007-08 and netted his first career point with a free throw against Sacramento State on Dec. 15.

Gentlemen, thanks for your hard work and dedication to Marquette University. Enjoy YOUR DAY at the Bradley Center on Tuesday.

Tipoff is scheduled for 7pm CST. The game will be broadcast by Time Warner cable.
Media Updates

• Marquette Game Notes. (**which provided the background for the player detail above, thanks!)
• Appleton Post Crescent preview
• Rosiak on the departing seniors
• FGCU preview written around one of their senior's struggles.
• Scout.com preview

Recapturing Momentum (plus numbers)

What do we have here (again)?

As NYWarrior eloquently pointed out in , "What do we have here?", it's true that Marquette is susceptible to bad matchups. His basic conclusion is that Marquette definitely has a ceiling, and that we are likely to face a first round loss unless the matchup is good. NYWarrior is absolutely right. After all, we are a team that is only 3-7 against top 50 teams. When it matters, we don't beat the good teams. There is legitimate concern that this team will not get it done in the NCAA.

What is causing even more consternation is that this is the most likely window for the team. With the loss of Barro, Fitz, and probably James, we'll lose our most experienced post player and one of the most important members of the team. The post play will be Burke and sophomores/freshmen, and our point guard options will be Acker/Cubillan and freshmen. Despite the return of Matthews/McNeal/Hayward, I fully expect some sort of downslide next year. Couple that with the mantra oft-repeated by Crean-haters of "zero wins without Wade", and the fear is that the team's best opportunity just isn't good enough and the trend of zero wins post-Wade will continue. No true Marquette fan wants that.

Meeting Expectations

I want just one win this year in the NCAA tournament. That is "meeting expectations". It's kind of a bitter pill, honestly, because I had hoped, when the Amigos were freshmen, of a potential Elite Eight / Final-Four type run this year. Now, Sweet Sixteen or beyond is "exceeds expectations". This team has potential and could be special, but let's start with just one win.

Recapturing the Momentum

Heading into the Georgetown game, NYWarrior and I agreed on the following. Excluding Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette needed to win two of the next three games for us to feel confident about the team. This meant beating either Georgetown or Syracuse and winning the first game in the Big East Tournament. The logic behind this statement is that failure to win two out of three would portend that the team was likely to suffer yet another late season fade and NCAA first round flameout.

The opportunity is still there for this team. It's just that the margin of error has been eliminated. Thankfully, the team has the ability to shake out the cobwebs against Florida Gulf Coast. Then, it's time for Marquette to go and step on the dreams of a team just fighting to make the NCAA tournament. Given the right matchups in the BET, MU could even make the semis and win a few games. But it all starts with winning the next two (really three) games and recapturing that momentum heading into the NCAA tournament.

Give Us a Reason to Believe

Here's the deal with the team. We're searching, hoping, and praying for a reason to believe in this team. On Saturday, in front of 19K rabid fans and a national audience, we screamed and we believed and got collectively kicked in the teeth. The team and the fans are heartbroken. Marquette was close to breaking through with a statement win but just fell short.

It's gut check time in Marquette-land.

Give us a reason to maintain that hope. Come out strong against Florida Gulf Coast. Win against Syracuse and we'll believe. The refrain of "We Are Marquette" will ring out loud and clear in Madison Square Garden and wherever we play in the NCAA tournament.

We'll believe that on the first day of the NCAA tournament, MU will meet expectations.

Onto the numbers (with no individual ratings today due to length)

Four Factors Review


Looking at the Four Factors shows something fairly interesting. Each team was able to utilize their strengths. Yet again, Marquette was able to keep their turnovers down and force their opponent into more turnovers than normal. However, Georgetown was able to win the effective Field Goal % battle, which ultimately made the difference. Remember that Georgetown is number one in the country at effective Field Goal defense and number eight in the country at effective Field Goal offense. Although Marquette won the Offensive Rebounding battle and Georgetown won the Free Throw Rate battle, the two percentages were close enough such that the result was a wash.

Of course, there was also another factor at play in the game...

The Fifth Factor

Just kidding, folks. After all, it's not like we've ever complained about officials, ever. Despite what seemed like lots of calls going in Georgetown's favor, Marquette had the opportunity to win and did not. A few more free throws and a non-foul by James and this is all moot.

Time to move on to Florida Gulf Coast and Senior Night. Let's recapture that momentum.

What do we have here?

After Saturdays' heartbreaking loss to Georgetown, Marquette is 21-7 and 11-6 --- fine records with just two regular season games remaining.

However, a closer look reveals a team that is much more susceptible to bad matchup games than just about any Big East 'contender'. Marquette's struggles in halfcourt sets continues to rear its ugly head in games against the nation's best, limiting MU's success in those marquee matchups. The net: for Marquette to win a game or two in the NCAA tournament, this squad must be matched up against an opponent who allows easier baskets in halfcourt sets, otherwise it is hard to like this team's chances. Consider:

• MU is 1-5 against the top four teams in the Big East (1-1 v ND, 0-1 v UConn, 0-2 v Ville, 0-1 v GU), including two losses at the Bradley Center.
  
• UConn, Georgetown, and Louisville are among the nation's best at defending the interior. These squads rank in the top 10 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense inside the arc.
• MU shot 40% or worse from the field against each of these opponents, shooting 34% or less in three of the four games. In fact, the 40% from the field against UConn was propped up by a hot second half in Storrs -- when the game was already in the bag for the Huskies.
  
• The only exception to this equation is Wisconsin, which is 10th nationally in eFG% inside the arc. MU made 47% from the floor that day, way back in December.
  
• Marquette is 3-7 against teams in the RPI top 50, but is 6-0 against teams #51-100.
  

This team definitely has a ceiling.

Despite returning nearly its entire roster year-to-year along with a greatly improved Lazar Hayward, MU remains unable to execute effectively against stingy halfcourt defenses. Moreover, as the year has progressed, MU has shown no discernible improvement against teams that defend the interior well. In fact, there is strong evidence that MU has regressed against teams that fit this profile. The Golden Eagles' 25% shooting from the field in the final 25 minutes of action on Saturday afternoon bears this out.

On the other side of this equation are the teams that do not defend as well inside the arc. MU makes mincemeat of teams like this - - examples include Seton Hall, Villanova, and to some degree Notre Dame. Other signs of hope were noted in in Rosiak's blog wrap-up of the game when he noted that "MU had 15 steals for the third consecutive game. It also forced 20-plus turnovers for the fourth consecutive game." Clearly these trends speak well of MU's strengths, and if the Golden Eagles made just one more free throw in regulation it might not feel like the sky is falling in some quarters.

**BTW, Rosiak's game wrap-up blogs are terrific....he injects a level of commentary and observation that is absent in the straight reporting required of a beat writer. Bueno, Todd!

In summary, teams that force Marquette to execute in the halfcourt beat Marquette. As constructed, the Golden Eagles have a limited offensive arsenal that is more easily defended by opponents who commit to shutting down anything inside. The drive and dish complemented by modest ball reversal only works well in spurts against teams that fit this profile. Unless MU lands up with an NCAA tournament matchup against a squad that struggles to defend the interior, look for the Golden Eagles to be one and done.

Georgetown tops Marquette in overtime

Marquette squandered an 11-point second half lead and fell to the Georgetown Hoyas 70-68 in overtime this afternoon in Milwaukee.

The Golden Eagles used trademark defensive pressure to keep Georgetown out of sync for most of the game, but Patrick Ewing Jr's clutch play in the second half and a critical mistake by Dominic James late in regulation gave the Hoyas new life in overtime.

After weathering the Hoyas' late comeback, Marquette scrambled to gain a three point lead, 63-60, with just seconds remaining in regulation. That's when Jonathan Wallace went to work. Dominic James inexplicably fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt with less than three seconds remaining. The GU senior confidently drained all three freebies, tying the game at 63-63 and forcing overtime. Earlier in the second half, James fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt as well.

Late in overtime MU had a chance to tie the game, regaining possession with nine seconds remaining. MU failed to get a shot off, as James indecisively turned the ball over to end the game.

After trailing by 11 midway through the second half, Ewing keyed the Hoyas' revival. The forward buried a pivotal three-pointer to bring the Hoyas to within 54-50 with six minutes to play, and doled out a pair of assists, one to Wallace to give the Hoyas a 56-55 with 3:35 to play, their first lead since early in the opening minutes.

Wesley Matthews paced the Golden Eagles with a season-high 22 points. Jerel McNeal had 17 points, and Dominic James 15. Lazar Hayward was outclassed by DaJuan Summers, going 0-8 from the floor with four rebounds.

Although MU forced 21 Georgetown turnovers, that advantage was negated by the Golden Eagles' poor free throw shooting (61% on 22 of 36 from the stripe).

Wallace and Hibbert led the Hoyas with 20 points each.

With the loss, MU falls to 21-7 overall and 11-6 in the Big East.

Media Updates
Box Score