MU’s best FT of the Century (96%) beats LSU; Gardner’s 81% tops of any BIG man in country

I’m not sure if MU fans realize what they saw Saturday when MU hit 24 of 25 free throws to beat LSU 84-80.  The 96% from the line is the best Marquette has shot in 409 games this century (since the 2000-2001 season began).  It is very rare for a team's free throw shooting to change who wins or loses the game, but the was not only the greatest shooting percentage of the century but MU did it in a game in which MU would have LOST the game with average free throw shooting of 17 of 25.

The team was led by a 9-9 performance by 6-foot-8, 270 pound Davante Gardner.  There are 49 players 270 pounds or bigger in D1 basketball, and they average 56% from the line and Davante’s 81% for the season makes him the only of these 49 above 75%.

Overall, D1 players average hitting 69% of their free throws, so every time a player hits a free throw he “adds” .31 points above what was expected, and every time he misses he takes .69 off the board (see end of this points for the very advanced calculations for 1-and-1 front ends, offensive rebounds etc., but this basic formula is close).

On Saturday, the team shot even better than Steve Novak did for his career.  Novak made 63 more shots that an average player would have when he went 243 of 261 (93%) so for his career. The rest of MU's players this Century have combined for a 71% mark from the line, so with Novak MU has shot three percent better than the average team of the century resulting in 252 more points in 13 seasons than would be average.  So MU's overall 72% from the line beginning in 2000-2001 means instead of scoring 29,799 points in those 409 games, MU has scored 30,031.

	FTM	FTA	FT%	Plus/Minus
Steve Novak	243	261	93%	63
All other MU this century	6,297	8,852	71%	189
Total 21st century	6,540	9,113	72%	252

However Saturday was the first time MU had ever hit 96% from the line in the 344 games in which they got to the line at least 15 times (the average team goes 14 of 20 or 14 of 21 on a given night, so below 15 attempts is very low).  The only two times MU ever shot this high a percent previously was in two losses in which MU rarely made it to the line (12-12 against ECU in 2003 and 7-7 against UAB in 2005).

Saturday was one of the few times free throw shooting was the difference

A point I always stress is how very rare it truly is for free throw shooting to be the difference in a game.  Teams are going to usually shoot fairly close to 69%, and unless it’s a one or two point game, getting to the line and the other three factors (field goal shooting, offensive rebounding and turnovers) are more important than the slight fluctuation of a point or two in scoring based on how well you shoot while there.  However, on Saturday MU scored 7 points MORE than they would have with average (17 of 25) shooting, so they would have lost 77-80 rather than winning 84-80.

Below are MU’s best 20 and worst 10 free throw shooting performances of the century and in 26 of those 30 games the great or terrible free throw shooting did not change the winner of the.  The only other times besides Saturday that it did were the 19-20 outing against Missouri during the Final Four run of 2003 when MU would have lost in regulation with average free throw shooting, the 79-76 win in 2010 vs. Cincy which MU would have lost without 16 of 17, and on the flip side 63-61 loss at South Florida when MU would have won 61-57 with average free throw shooting. 

Of course 1 or 2 points games can be decided by free throw shooting, and MU’s 4 of 9 against Green Bay was two points LESS than expected, so could have meant a shot in overtime to avoid the upset.  But in 278 of 409 MU games this century MU’s free throw shooting has been within 2 points either way of average, while in 92 games MU has shot 3 or points better and in just 39 games MU has shot 3 points or more worse than expected.

The following are the best 20 free throw shooting days, the worst 10, and the Plus/Minus on how many points MU added or subtracted at the line.

Rank	Result	Opponent	MU pts	FT	FTA	FT%	Plus/minus	Season	Change result?
1	W	LSU	84	24	25	96	6.75	2013	Lost 77-80
2	W	@DEP	89	22	23	95.7	6.13	2012	No
3	L	Lville	70	21	22	95.5	5.82	2003	No
4	W	Mizzou	101	19	20	95	5.2	2003	L Reg (W96-92 OT)
5	L	UAB	76	18	19	94.7	4.89	2003	No
6	W	@Cinci	79	16	17	94.1	4.27	2010	Lost 75-76 OT
7	W	UH	76	28	30	93.3	7.3	2005	No
8	W	UWM	64	18	20	90	4.2	2012	No
9	L	@PITT	79	17	19	89.5	3.89	2007	No
10	W	UAB	98	33	37	89.2	7.47	2003	No
11	W	WVU	75	24	27	88.9	5.37	2009	No
12	W	CSU	89	24	27	88.9	5.37	2008	No
13	W	Lville	74	16	18	88.9	3.58	2012	No
14	W	Nova	80	31	35	88.6	6.85	2007	No
15	L	@ND	75	15	17	88.2	3.27	2011	No
16	W	DEP	79	15	17	88.2	3.27	2008	No
17	W	UH	85	15	17	88.2	3.27	2002	No
18	W	PC	96	22	25	88	4.75	2008	No
19	W	@Lville	77	22	25	88	4.75	2004	No
20	W	DEP	82	22	25	88	4.75	2001	No
335	W	@TUL	82	11	21	52.4	-3.49	2005	No
336	W	IPFW	80	12	23	52.2	-3.87	2008	No
337	W	ISU	59	16	31	51.6	-5.39	2007	No
338	W	@WVU	61	10	20	50	-3.8	2012	No
339	L	@Cinci	68	8	16	50	-3.04	2005	No
340	L	@USF	56	10	23	43.5	-5.87	2009	Won 61-57
341	W	WISC	60	7	17	41.2	-4.73	2013	No
342	L	SU	58	6	15	40	-4.35	2007	No
343	W	@USF	59	7	19	36.8	-6.11	2011	No
344	W	UMBC	68	6	18	33.3	-6.42	2007	No

I’m sure LSU fans couldn’t believe Davante Gardner hit all 9 of his free throws despite hard fouls, and running the court twice to take on a hard foul at the rim and save a long pass with a ballet move an end from the end line.  The fact is when teams see a huge guy step to the line they expect to see a Shaq like miss, but with his nine hits, Davante is clearly the best BIG man at the line in America.

Of the 49 guys who weigh 270 or better in D1 ball, the average guy shoots 56% from the line, and only 29 of the 49 are above even 50%. Here are the top 10:

Jer	270-pound or bigger FT	Team	Ft	In	Wt	Yr	FTM	FTA	FT%
54	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6	8	290	Jr	34	42	81%
44	Shaquille Cleare	Maryland	6	9	270	Fr	15	20	75%
50	Ian Chiles	Morgan St.	7	2	270	Jr	18	24	75%
34	Derrick Williams	Richmond	6	6	270	Jr	74	99	75%
42	Reggie Johnson	Miami	6	10	292	Sr	35	49	71%
25	Derrick Nix	Michigan St.	6	9	270	Sr	35	50	70%
41	Stephen Hurt	Lipscomb	6	10	285	Fr	21	30	70%
40	Kendrick Washington	Arkansas St.	6	7	274	Jr	22	33	67%
32	Andre Almeida	Nebraska	6	11	314	Sr	13	20	65%
20	A.J. Hammons	Purdue	7	1	280	Fr	20	31	65%

Advanced Calculations on the impact of free throws

Now for the advanced stats guys, I am sure you are running through a bunch of scenarios that would throw off the simple equation of plus-31% for made free throws and minus-69% for missed free throws.  It is true that this equation only measures the impact of the free throw make or miss itself and not what happens after.

In short, if the free throw made is the front end of a 1-and-1, then the make is actually worth a full point (1.00) because not only have you made the free throw in question (plus 0.31), but you have also given yourself another free throw you would not have had, which results in another 0.69 points on average.  My model estimates that about 1 in 10 free throws are the front end of one-and-ones, but will certainly alter that if someone has actual figures.  If 10% of all free throws are the front end of one-and-ones, then the overall made free throw would be worth plus-0.38 points.

	Impact	Off Reb Pts	Total impact
Made front of 1-1 (10%)	1.00	-	1.00
Made any other (90%)	0.31	-	0.31
Estimated impact of all made FT			0.38
Miss 2nd of 2, 3rd of 3 or "and 1" (43% of misses)	(0.69)	0.25	(0.44)
Miss technical (3%)	(0.69)	-	(0.69)
Miss 1st of 2 or 2nd of 3 (44%)	(0.69)	-	(0.69)
Miss front of 1-1 (10%)	(1.38)	0.25	(1.13)
Estimated impact of all misses			(0.64)

Now on the flip side, if you miss a free throw on which there can be no rebound (technical, first of two or 1^st or 2^nd of three free throws), then you have cost your team 0.69 points.

However, if you miss the front of the one-and-one you have cost yourself not only that free throw (minus .69) but the chance at the 2^nd free throw (another 0.69), so the missed front end of a one-and-one actually costs a team 1.38 points.

But, when you miss that free throw, or any other free throw that results in a chance at a rebound, then your team has about a 25% chance of grabbing the offensive rebound.  Teams grab close to 33% of all offensive rebounds, but I believe it has to be lower on free throws and higher on field goals, so the 25% is an estimate subject to change.

The percentages listed in the left column are also all subject to change, and the result of me running models that could be slightly off.  There have been just 242 technical fouls called on players so far this season, so I expect only about 3% of all foul shots are the result of technical fouls.  The one-and-one front end can obviously only occur on the 7^th, 8^th or 9^th foul of a half and only then if it is NOT an offensive ball possession foul or a shooting foul, so at 0 to 6 per game and even in those cases the 2^nd shot  of the one-and-one not fitting this category, I believe only about 10% of all free throws made or missed are the front end of a one-and-one.

As for the rest of the foul shots and which ones have or do not have rebound opportunities, it looks about even when I run models.

When you make the front end you get a 2^nd shot that can be rebounded, and the final shot of any shooting foul can be rebounded.  The first of two shots cannot be rebounded, but when you get a 3-shot opportunity you have two non-rebound free throws and just one shot that can be rebounded, and then any flagrant has to be added, so when I run simple models it appears that once we get past front ends and technicals, about 44% of shots have a rebound and 43% do not.

If these assumptions are correct then a missed free throw on average costs a team about 0.64 points and a made free throw adds about 0.38 points, and even if it turns out a few of the percentages I have are off a bit it’s not going to change either figure much.

Reminder: Badgers lost at GB after beating eventual NCAA champ Duke; but MU needs win over bubble LSU team to keep forecast as a 10th seed (all seeds, spoilers and bubble teams calculated)

The panic over the loss to Green Bay is a bit out of hand.  Wisconsin lost their last trip to Green Bay three years ago (www.kenpom.com had GB 139th then and 150th now).  The week before they beat eventual national champion Duke.  After that loss, they beat Ohio State by 20 and went onto finish one game out of first place with a 13-5 Big Ten mark.

It's not like the world is going to end tomorrow - I don't think.

However, this does put Marquette squarely on the NCAA bubble along with Saturday's foe LSU, who upset MU last year.  While RPI Forecast does currently forecast Marquette finishing with a 19-11 mark which would put us about 38th in RPI and give us a 10-seed to play Creighton if Selection went exactly by RPI (see below for all seeds, spoilers and bubble teams).  However, while the calcuations below show three spoilers leaving the top 48 RPI teams in the tourney, MU does have a glaring resume weakness that cannot be fixed.  MU will still be 2-3 away from home in non-conference games come Selection Sunday, and the 1-1 mark against teams projected to not finish in the Top 250 of the RPI is a major problem.

Non-conference games not in Bradley Center	RPI Forecast	Result
Butler	20	71-72 loss
Mississippi State	243	89-62 win
USC	134	72-64 win
Florida	5	49-82 loss
Wisconsin-Green Bay	225	47-49 loss

For this reason MU is under the gun to get a 2nd solid non-conference home win Saturday against an LSU team that stunned then 8th ranked MU last season.  While LSU is within a few spots of where www.valueaddbasketball.com picked them at the beginning of the year (putting them on pace to be 62nd in RPI according to RPI Forecast) when comparing the top 4 players on each team LSU has a huge advantage.  As you can see from this table, Hickey is ranked as the 98th best player in the country compared to MU's Davante Gardner being 255th, etc. through the first four, giving LSU a decided edge.

Clearly Marquette is much, much deeper, and dominates the rest of the roster starting with Chris Otule as MU's 5th best player, but can MU force LSU to the bench by increasing the tempo to draw fouls and force minutes from the bench?

Rnk	LSU Player	Ht	Class	VA	Rnk	MU Player	Ht	Class	VA	Edge
98	Hickey, Anthony	5'11"	2 So	6.44	255	Gardner, Davante	6'8"	3 Jr	4.47	LSU
368	Coleman, Shavon	6'5"	3 Jr	3.81	366	Wilson, Jamil	6'7"	3 Jr	3.83	Tie
434	Carmouche, Charles	6'4"	4 Sr	3.5	745	Cadougan, Junior	6'1"	4 Sr	2.42	LSU
475	Morgan, Malik	6'4"	1 Fr	3.33	792	Blue, Vander	6'4"	3 Jr	2.32	LSU
1066	Stringer, Andre	5'9"	3 Jr	1.68	854	Otule, Chris	6'11"	4 Sr	2.15	MU
1517	O'Bryant, Johnny	6'9"	2 So	0.97	971	Anderson, Juan	6'6"	2 So	1.89	MU
1930	Del Piero, Andrew	7'3"	4 Sr	0.46	990	Thomas, Jake	6'3"	3 Jr	1.85	MU
2635	Collins, Corban	6'3"	1 Fr	0	1101	Wilson, Derrick	6'1"	2 So	1.61	MU
3067	Hammink, Shane	6'7"	1 Fr	0	1485	Lockett, Trent	6'5"	4 Sr	1.02	MU
3194	Courtney, Jalen	6'8"	3 Jr	0	1501	Taylor, Steve	6'7"	1 Fr	1	MU
3292	Ludwig, Eddie	6'9"	4 Sr	0	1770	Ferguson, Jamal	6'4"	1 Fr	0.64	MU

In looking at RPI Forecast starting with the projected 10-seeds, MU has a little buffer before getting to the last four teams picked (Georgetown, Maryland, Lehigh and Wisconsin), even after accounting for a projected three spoilers (see percentages below for chance of spoilers by conference).

RPI Forecast	Seed	Spoiler%	Team	W-L	Conf
37	10		Baylor	18-12	B12
38	10		Marquette	19-11	BE
39	10		Colorado St.	18-10	MWC
40	10		California	19-11	P12
41	11		Memphis	22-9	CUSA
42	11		Notre Dame	21-10	BE
43	11		Southern Mississippi	20-9	CUSA
44	11		Temple	21-10	A10
45	12	playin	Georgetown	19-10	BE
46	12	playin	Maryland	22-9	ACC
47	12	playin	Lehigh	21-6	Pat
48	12	playin	Wisconsin	20-11	B10
58	12		Illinois Chicago	21-7	Horz
60	12		North Dakota St.	22-5	Sum
63	13		Spoiler 1
64	13		Canisius	21-8	MAAC
68	13		Spoiler 2
70	13		Akron	20-8	MAC
77	14		Stephen F. Austin	20-4	Slnd
79	14		Louisiana Tech	22-8	WAC
82	14		Spoiler 3
93	14		Florida Gulf Coast	21-7	ASun
96	15		Stony Brook	20-8	AE
102	15		George Mason	20-10	CAA
103	15		Robert Morris	21-10	NEC
107	15		Davidson	18-10	SC
119	16		Weber St.	19-7	BSky
145	16		Harvard	17-10	Ivy
147	16	playin	Pacific	15-13	BW
159	16	playin	Savannah St.	15-13	MEAC
160	16	playin	Gardner Webb	17-10	BSth
186	16	playin	Southern	17-10	SWAC
49	1st out	0.07	Oklahoma	18-12	B12
50	2nd out	0.1	Stanford	19-12	P12
51	3rd out	0.2	Illinois St.	21-9	MVC
52	4th out	0.07	St. Louis	19-11	A10
53	5th out	0.05	Utah	14-14	P12
54	6th out	0.1	Iowa	20-11	B10
56	7th out	0.05	Virginia	21-10	ACC
57	8th out	0.06	Richmond	20-11	A10
59	9th out	0.1	San Diego St.	17-8	MWC
61	10th out	0.07	Alabama	19-11	SEC
62	11th out	0.06	Louisiana St.	19-10	SEC
63	12th out	0.13	St. Mary's	21-8	WCC
65	13th out	0.3	Murray St.	21-5	OVC
66	14th out	0.05	Charlotte	20-10	A10
67	15th out	0.04	Xavier	18-12	A10
68	16th out	0.2	UCLA	19-12	P12
69	17th out	0.2	Eastern Kentucky	21-7	OVC
71	18th out	0.05	Texas A&M	19-12	SEC
72	19th out		Ohio	23-7	MAC
73	20th out	0.03	Saint Joseph's	19-10	A10
74	21st out		Dayton	19-11	A10
75	22nd out	0.1	Santa Clara	18-10	WCC
76	23rd out	0.04	Virginia Tech	17-13	ACC
78	24th out	0.04	Arkansas	18-13	SEC
80	25th out	0.04	Providence	17-13	BE

The total chance of spoilers (a team who pulls an upset win in their conference tournament to make the tournament while the projected automatic bid team also makes it) are listed below.  Because the percentages add up to about 300%, the odds are that translates into 3 total spoilers.

Chance	Most likely spoilers from conference
50%	Ohio Valley (Murray St. Eastern KY)
35%	Pac-12 (Stanford, Utah, UCLA)
30%	Atlantic 10 (St. L, Richmond, Charlotte, Xavier, St. Joe's, Dayton)
30%	Sun Belt (Western Kentucky)
30%	West Coast (St. Mary's, Santa Clara, BYU)
25%	SEC (Alabama, LSU, T A&M, Arka, Tenn)
20%	Missouri Valley (Illinois St.)
15%	ACC (Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Ga Tech, Flo St)
15%	Big 12 (Oklahoma, K-State, WVU)
15%	Big East (Prov, St. Js, Rutgers, SH)
15%	Big Ten (Wisconsin, Iowa, NW)
15%	Conference USA (Central FL, ECU, UAB)
10%	Mountain West (San Diego State)

Below is the rest of the RPI Forecast list starting at the top and going through the 9-seed, the point at which the list above stops.

RPI Forecast	Seed	Spoiler%	Team	W-L	Conf
1	1		Duke	29-2	ACC
2	1		Louisville	26-5	BE
3	1		Syracuse	27-4	BE
4	1		Minnesota	24-7	B10
5	2		Florida	27-3	SEC
6	2		Kansas	26-5	B12
7	2		Gonzaga	26-4	WCC
8	2		Arizona	24-4	P12
9	3		Indiana	26-5	B10
10	3		Michigan	24-6	B10
11	3		Cincinnati	25-6	BE
12	3		Virginia Commonwealth	26-5	A10
13	4		Miami FL	20-8	ACC
14	4		Pittsburgh	26-5	BE
15	4		Wyoming	22-6	MWC
16	4		New Mexico	23-8	MWC
17	5		Illinois	22-9	B10
18	5		Ohio St.	22-8	B10
19	5		Boise St.	19-9	MWC
20	5		Butler	22-8	A10
21	6		Nevada Las Vegas	23-7	MWC
22	6		Colorado	19-11	P12
23	6		Creighton	26-4	MVC
24	6		Belmont	21-5	OVC
25	7		Wichita St.	24-6	MVC
26	7		Oregon	23-8	P12
27	7		Mississippi	23-6	SEC
28	7		North Carolina	20-10	ACC
29	8		Oklahoma St.	22-8	B12
30	8		Missouri	22-9	SEC
31	8		Middle Tennessee	26-5	SB
32	8		Michigan St.	19-11	B10
33	9		North Carolina St.	21-10	ACC
34	9		Kentucky	22-9	SEC
35	9		Bucknell	24-5	Pat
36	9		Iowa St.	22-9	B12

Pomeroy: How it works and how MU jumped from 49th to 36th in a week

In addition to the more important developments, yesterday was a reminder of why it is important to root for Marquette's opponents. I admit that after the University of Arizona's web page noted that I had rated Nick Johnson as the 14th best player in the NCAA (read the story on the University site here), I was happy to see Nick Johnson light up Florida with 4 steals, 3 assists and 3 of 4 shooting from beyond the arc to hand the Gators their first loss.

However, in general good performances by MU's past opponents (Butler and USC) yesterday are a big reason MU shot up to 36th in today's ratings at www.kenpom.com.

Those performances were part of a great day for Marquette basketball.  Most importantly, despite my past bias against a "Catholic League," MU helped lay out a clear vision that could result in a great conference. During MU's win the most important development was Steve Taylor forcing his way to the basket against one of the best shooting defenses in the country for 10 points, while grabbing 6 rebounds and hitting all four free throws after looking shaky from the line earlier.

When MU moved to 36th place, a discussion did start up on MUScoop regarding how MU's Pomeroy rating had fluctuated in between games, so I wanted to lay out an oversimplified how Pomeroy (and the other services) measure impacts and why every time a past MU opponent plays a game it may impact Marquette.

First let's look at the most important factor in Marquette's rating, the score of each game:

MU opponent	Their opponent yesterday	Favored	Won by
Marquette	Savannah State	13	20
	Marquette 7 points better than expected		7
	Weighted as 1/9th of games played		0.78

Marquette was favored by 13 points yesterday and won by 20.  Basically the system says, "Marquette's average performance over the first 8 games was a '50,' and if they are a '50' then they will beat Savannah State by 13 points.  Wait, they won by 20, so they have a '57' for this game and when I average this weekend's performance with the eight '50s' from the previous games then the new average is '50.78', so I need to move that up.  Now actually Pomeroy is much more sophisticated (and better) than this approach because he uses the Pythagorean Theorem first applied to baseball by Bill James which realizes that a 50-40 point win is actually more impressive than a 80-70 win, but let's keep the basic math here.

However, Marquette's rating is based on the rating of every team they have played, and since their ratings change every game that also impacts the '50' rating on the past games.  Yesterday was a very good day for MU opponents overall, as four played:

MU opponent	Their opponent yesterday	Favored	Won by
Florida	Arizona	4	-1
USC	UC Riverside	15	34
Missisippi State	Loyola Chicago	-4	-8
Butler	Indiana	-15	2
	4 opponents 27 pts better than expected	0	27
	27 pts divided by 8 previous opponents		3.78

Kevin O'Neill's defense was dominant, as it often is, and USC held UC Riverside to 11 of 58 shooting to win by 34 points.  That is 19 points better than Pomeroy thought USC was before the game.  Potential future Big East member Butler was expected to lose by 15 points to Tom Crean's Indiana so they were 17 points better than he thought.  Florida and Mississippi State underperformed by 5 and 4 points, respectively, but overall MU's opponents were 27 points better than Pomeroy thought coming in, and even when you take the 4 previous opponents that did not play, the average of MU's opponents yesterday was 3.78 better than their Pomeroy ratings coming into their games.

You take MU being 0.78 better than expected and their opponents' being moved 3.78 better than expected combined to jump MU from 42nd to 36th.

Southeastern LA	at North Texas	-17	-5
	1 opponent 12 pts better
	12 pts divided by 9 opponents		1.33

The only opponent that played today was SELA, which kept it close at North Texas today - only losing by 5 instead of the 17 their ratings would have dictated, which improves the overall opponents ranking by 1.33.

The morale is, always root for all of MU's past opponents and especially pull for Georgetown, South Florida, Seton Hall and Pitt since they will all count twice by the end of the season.

MU faces all juniors & seniors & one of the top defenses in Savannah State at 1 p.m. Saturday

For a quick preview of Savannah State today, the item that jumped out is that everyone who will be on the court will be a Junior or Senior the entire game.  They have experience and appear to be a decent club - I ranked them 150th in Value Add to start the year, though they have been barely staying in the top 200 so far.

They have the 32nd best defense in the country allowing only 90.5 points per 100 trips due to one of the best defenses against shooting (opponents make only 40.1% of their 2-pointers for the 19th best defensive total) and they turn opponents over 24.4% of the time (48th best total).  However, their offense is the 323rd best out of 347 as they are really having trouble shooting.  They held a likely NCAA-bound Tennessee Tech to just a 58-55 win, and grinded out a 39-38 win over Western Illinois en route to a 5-5 start.

They have one pretty legitmate star in No. 44 Jyles Smith, who is blocking 17.2% of all opponents 2-point shots for the 5th best total in the country, and he is grabbing 25% of opponents missed shots for the 43rd best total in the country to finish as the 457th best player.

He is one of six players in the top 1100 and each of them seems to have something they are good at if you look down the right column.  Marquette has 8 (ok, Derrick Wilson is up to 1101st and I'm counting him).

If you believe in comparative scoring then they would win easily since they lost by only 58-40 at Florida, a 15-point better total than Marquette had there.  However, Marquette actually goes in a double digit favorite, but definitely a team that will want to use patience and experience to see if they can frustrate MU and have a shot at the upset.

Jer	Rnk	Savannah St./MEAC	Ht	Class	Off	Def	PG Per	Value Add	National Leader in
44	457	Smith, Jyles	6'8	3 Jr	0	-3.43	0	3.43	5th best shot blocker in country 17,2%, 43rd best rebounder 25.0%
1	818	Blackman, Preston	6'0	4 Sr	0	-0.74	1.5	2.24	Assists
5	898	Smith, Cedric	6'3	4 Sr	0	-1.52	0.5	2.02	Off Reb 11.4%
11	1038	Wilson, Stephen	6'1	3 Jr	1.08	-0.66	0	1.74	Steals 3.5%
22	1043	Hassan, Rashad	6'7	4 Sr	1.01	-0.73	0	1.74	Shooting and Drawing Fouls
34	1080	Louis, Arnold	6'7	4 Sr	0	-1.66	0	1.66	Offensive Rebound 10.8%, Defensive rebounding 20.2%
2	1732	White, Khiry	6'3	3 Jr	0	-0.68	0	0.68	3.8% steals in limited time, but nothing else
0	1820	Burger, Robert	6'0	3 Jr	0	-0.58	0	0.58	5.0% steals in limited minutes
23	1979	Spears, Christopher	6'7	3 Jr	0	-0.4	0	0.4	18.0% defensive rebound in limited play
10	2185	Hendley, Patrick	6'4	3 Jr	0	-0.17	0	0.17	really struggling
20	2397	Williams, Deven	6'0	3 Jr	0.59	0.6	0	0	solid except for shooting slump, few turnovers

VCU would nudge new conference ahead of ACC; Current All-Conference players for Catholic 7 + Butler/Xavier/VCU

After a day of rumors the 7 Catholic, Basketball only schools left the Big East for a new conference which we hope will be called, well, the Big East.  With Xavier and Butler also joining, the addition of VCU would put Marquette right back in the 2nd best conference in the land behind the Big Ten. Below are the averages of each team on www.kenpom.com, and the actual averages of the conferences (I tallied each team on his page since he apparently using some rounding in the conference averages his lists).

The Big Ten would still be the top conference, but VCU would nudge the new conference past the ACC for the 2nd best conference.  If Creighton, St. Louis or Dayton join instead of or in addition to VCU, then the conference would slip a few points from the totals below, but still be in the mix for 2nd best conference.  Below the team listings, I list the 1st through 4th All-Conference teams based on VCU, and then the rest of Marquette's players and then the 10 All-Americans based on www.valueaddbasketball.com, which is updated through Wednesday's games.

Rank	Team	Pyth
17	Virginia Commonwealth	0.903
29	Georgetown	0.854
40	Marquette	0.827
55	Butler	0.789
73	Providence	0.746
80	Seton Hall	0.720
81	Xavier	0.714
85	DePaul	0.698
91	St. John's	0.678
93	Villanova	0.676
1	Big Ten	0.811
2	New Confererence Total	0.760
3	ACC	0.753
4	Big 12	0.736
5	Mountain West	0.724
6	Pac12	0.714
7	SEC	0.700

As for the actual players, VCU would have two of the All-Conference players in the 10-team conference, while Davante Gardner would be the best player on the 3rd team and Jamil Wilson the best on the 4th team.  I know some are frustrated that Vander Blue is only up to 766th (top 20% of all players) despite his excellent play, but through the first few games his shooting percentage was low and turnover rate was high against poor competition.  He was not in the top 1500 then, and his actual Value Add was 0.00.  He has been shooting up - playing great against better competition - so he is on the trajectory to continue shooting up if he keeps playing his best ball against great competition (the opposite of what happened in the past).

Value Add continues to love Shabazz Napier of UConn as the one 1st Team All-American from the current Big East (bottom of list), but I do expect Otto Porter of Georgetown to end up as the top player this year as his 7.17 would be much higher if he had not missed the first several games with a concussion.  In fact, he may well have been the top player in the country by now if he had played those games.  All players are listed on www.valueaddbasketball.com and can be sorted by team, conference, name, etc.

Rnk	All-Conference	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	PG/Per	Total	NBA?
42	Juvonte Reddic	Virginia Commonwealth	6' 9"	Jr	5.14	-2.73	0.00	7.87
43	Bryce Cotton	Providence	6' 1"	Jr	6.29	-0.06	1.50	7.84
48	Fuquan Edwin	Seton Hall	6' 6"	Jr	4.70	-2.91	0.00	7.61
52	Briante Weber	Virginia Commonwealth	6' 2"	So	3.34	-4.12	0.00	7.46
64	Otto Porter	Georgetown	6' 8"	So	3.30	-3.87	0.00	7.17	SF
Rnk	2nd team	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	PG/Per	Total	NBA?
108	Treveon Graham	Virginia Commonwealth	6' 5"	So	5.76	-0.37	0.00	6.13
111	Kadeem Batts	Providence	6' 9"	Jr	4.31	-1.75	0.00	6.06
149	Justin Martin	Xavier	6' 6"	So	5.08	-0.55	0.00	5.63
164	Brandon Young	DePaul	6' 4"	Jr	4.25	0.28	1.50	5.47
213	D'Angelo Harrison	St. John's	6' 3"	So	2.51	-1.29	1.00	4.80	SG
Rnk	3rd team	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	PG/Per	Total	NBA?
244	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6' 8"	Jr	3.13	-1.34	0.00	4.47
252	Andrew Smith (But)	Butler	6' 11"	Sr	4.33	-0.09	0.00	4.42
270	Rotnei Clarke	Butler	6' 0	Sr	5.28	1.47	0.50	4.31
288	Kellen Dunham	Butler	6' 6"	Fr	5.59	1.35	0.00	4.25
309	LaDontae Henton	Providence	6' 6"	So	1.44	-2.67	0.00	4.10
Rnk	4th team	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	PG/Per	Total	NBA?
355	Jamil Wilson	Marquette	6' 7"	Jr	2.71	-1.12	0.00	3.83
369	Khyle Marshall	Butler	6' 6"	Jr	3.81	0.08	0.00	3.73
370	Nate Lubick	Georgetown	6' 8"	Jr	2.14	-1.59	0.00	3.73
426	Cleveland Melvin	DePaul	6' 8"	Jr	2.05	-1.43	0.00	3.48
448	Kyle Smyth	Seton Hall	6' 4"	Sr	3.21	0.31	0.50	3.39
Rnk	Rest of Marquette	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	PG/Per	Total	NBA?
720	Junior Cadougan	Marquette	6' 1"	Sr	1.28	-0.14	1.00	2.42
766	Vander Blue	Marquette	6' 4"	Jr	1.25	-0.07	1.00	2.32
821	Chris Otule	Marquette	6' 11"	Sr	1.50	-0.65	0.00	2.15
933	Juan Anderson	Marquette	6' 6"	So	0.54	-1.35	0.00	1.89
951	Jake Thomas	Marquette	6' 3"	Jr	1.50	-0.35	0.00	1.85
1055	Derrick Wilson	Marquette	6' 1"	So	0.41	-0.70	0.50	1.61
1421	Trent Lockett	Marquette	6' 5"	Sr	0.14	-0.88	0.00	1.02
1441	Steve Taylor	Marquette	6' 7"	Fr	0.56	-0.44	0.00	1.00
1701	Jamal Ferguson	Marquette	6' 4"	Fr	0.13	-0.51	0.00	0.64
Rnk	All-American	Team	Ht	Yr	Offense	Defense	PG/Per	Total	NBA?
1	Erick Green	Virginia Tech	6' 3"	Sr	9.52	-0.74	1.50	11.76	PG
2	Mason Plumlee	Duke	6' 10"	Sr	8.31	-3.40	0.00	11.71	PF
3	Mike Muscala	Bucknell	6' 11"	Sr	8.52	-3.01	0.00	11.53
4	Ed Daniel	Murray St.	6' 7"	Sr	6.98	-3.74	0.00	10.72
5	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	6' 1"	Jr	6.67	-2.35	1.50	10.52	PG
6	C.J. McCollum	Lehigh	6' 3"	Sr	6.81	-1.69	1.50	10.00	PG/SG
7	Ian Clark	Belmont	6' 3"	Sr	7.68	-1.61	0.50	9.79
8	Nate Wolters	South Dakota St.	6' 4"	Sr	6.69	-0.79	2.00	9.49	PG
9	Isaiah Canaan	Murray St.	6' 1"	Sr	7.92	0.65	2.00	9.28	PG
10	Matthew Dellavedova	St. Mary's	6' 4"	Sr	9.13	1.58	1.50	9.05	PG

Exciting Questions: Mayo back? Catholic Big East School Breakaway with Gonzaga?

Exciting news is hitting in the aftermath of the big win over Wisconsin. First, it appears Todd Mayo is done with exams and may be back on the roster afterall. Hopefully Jae Crowder has encouraged his Mavericks teammate O.J. Mayo to get on his little bro, but this would also be a great story of "Tough Love" from Buzz. As I've written, I believe Mayo is the difference between a ranked team and a bubble team this year, but more important is essential to making MU an Elite 8 team next year.

On the conference front, even many of the strongest advocates of sticking it out with the Big East as long as we could realized Louisville had to stay for it to work. With them gone, it looks like the 7 remaining Catholic schools are ready to break and hope to retain the Big East name for a basketball only-conference. I already did a piece ranking all 41 Catholic schools in the country, but today I broke down the 14 schools that might form a Catholic Big East based on the number of NCAA bids they have received in the past 10 years (automatic bids with a 13 or lower seed not counted). the most interesting question is Gonzaga, which apparently wants to join but would require a long flight to Spokane. However, the Zags are the one Catholic school worth it with 14 straight NCAA bids and obviously 10 in the last 10 years. 

Marquette has 8 bids in the last 10 years, the best of any of the seven breakaways, but Xavier also has 8 in 10 years and would seem the most obvious add to bridge the geography between the Midwest and Eastern teams.  A very good 10-team conference with home-and-home is my preference, with Dayton being my choice if it were decided to go all-Catholic, or Butler if not.

There are four other Catholic schools who could be added if the conference wanted to go past 10, but my fear in doing that Marquette being put in a Western Division meaning only traveling every other year to the Eastern markets while traveling to Nebraska and San Francisco to play Creighton and St. Mary's - great programs but I think Gonzaga is the only one absolutely worth the trip.

Catholic Schools	Bids	Current	Notes
Gonzaga	10	WCC	best available, 1 Catholic team worth a long flight
Marquette	8	BE
Xavier	8	A10	keep Cincy market
Villanova	7	BE	prob keep St. Joe's out
Georgetown	6	BE
Dayton	3	A10	prefer Xavier to keep Cincy market
Seton Hall	2	BE
DePaul	1	BE
Providence	1	BE
St. John's	1	BE
If go past 10
Creighton	4	MVC	if build Western Div around Gonzaga (Neb)
St. Mary's	4	WCC	if build Western Div around Gonzaga (San Fran)
Saint Joseph's	3	A10	Backup- Philly already covered with Nova
St. Louis	1	A10	if Western Division, but with no Rick can they compete?

Going out with a bang - Big East dominating BCS foes for one final year

West Virginia is already playing in the Big 12, and UConn is ineligible this year to repeat the feat of a 9-9 Big East team winning the National Title.  Louisville's departure for the ACC was the final blow in the future Big East possibly climbing back to the top of the hoops world.

But while the BCS football schools have destroyed a great Golden Era for the Big East, at least the conference is going out with a bang by dominating those BCS schools this season.  Through Sunday's games, Pomeroy now has the Big East and the Big Ten head-and-shoulders above every other conference.

Big East schools have gone 20-12 against BCS schools so far, but that just starts to tell the story.  If you throw out the nail-biters, games in which one team won by fewer than six points or in overtime, the Big East is 15-5.  Only five times has a BCS school beaten a Big East school by 6 or more in regulation (FL>MU, Miss>Rutg, OK St>USF, Ala>Vill and Bayl>St. John's), while the Big East has in turn beaten 15 BCS schools by 6 or more points.

Team	Proj Conf Wins	Losses	Natl Rnk	Record vs. BCS 20-12 (15-5 when decided by 6+ in regulation)
Louisville	15	3	3	def. Missouri 84-61, lost to Duke 71-76
Syracuse	14	4	4	def. at Arkansas 91-82
Pittsburgh	14	4	7	lost to Mich 67-62
Cincinnati	11	7	16	def. Oregon 77-66, def. Alabama 58-56
Notre Dame	10	8	21	def. Kentucky 64-50
Georgetown	10	8	31	def. UCLA 78-70, lost to Indiana 82-72 OT, def. Tenn 37-36, def. Texas 64-41
Marquette	9	9	38	def. Miss St 89-62, def. USC 72-64, lost to Flo 82-49, def. Wisconsin 60-50
Connecticut	8	10	53	def. Mich St 66-62, def. Wake For 77-71, lost to NC St 69-65
Providence	7	11	71	lost to PSU 55-52 OT, def. Miss St 73-63
Rutgers	7	11	75	lost to Mississippi 80-67
Seton Hall	6	12	80	lost to Wash 84-73 OT, lost to LSU 72-67, def. Wake For 71-67
St. John's	6	12	90	lost to Baylor 97-78, def. South Car 89-65
Villanova	5	13	99	def. Purdue 89-81, lost to Alabama 77-55, def. Vandy 62-52
South Florida	6	12	102	def. Georgia 64-53, lost to Oklahoma St 61-49
DePaul	5	13	105	def. Auburn 80-76

When you add it all together, the Big East calculates just 0.031 behind the Big Ten for the top conference top to bottom, and almost twice as far ahead of the next best conference - the ACC.

Marquette projects to finish 9-9 and in 7th place in a very tough Big East - a record that Pomeroy believes right now would make MU one of seven NCAA locks as the 38th best team in the country.

Pomeroy's top 10 conferences		Rating
1	Big Ten Conference	0.862
2	Big East Conference	0.831
3	Atlantic Coast Conference	0.7817
4	Big 12 Conference	0.774
5	Southeastern Conference	0.741
6	Mountain West Conference	0.74
7	Pac 12 Conference	0.7393
8	Atlantic 10 Conference	0.6948
9	Missouri Valley Conference	0.6671
10	West Coast Conference	0.625

Not a bad finale.   Hopefully the new Big East or whatever conference MU ends up in will be great as well, but it's going to be hard to top the fun of this golden era starting with Steve Novak beating UConn through the twists and turns of conference play this season.

One Thousand Five Hundred Victories

Marquette's win over Wisconsin-madison yesterday was not only a win for in-state bragging rights for another year, it also marked the 1,500th win in program history.  MU becomes the 44th school in Division I to achieve this milestone.  Illinois State became the 43rd school earlier this week.  Later this year Vanderbilt, Dayton, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota should join the club.

What is more impressive is the time in which the 1,500 wins were accumulated.  Of the 43 schools that achieved the mark before Marquette, all but one started playing basketball before MU.  The Warriors first season was 1917.  MU now ranks 28th in winning percentage for schools with at least 1,500 wins.


Below is a list of other Big East notables

Syracuse 1851 wins
St. John's 1742 wins
Notre Dame 1730 wins
Louisville 1670 wins
Cincinnati 1632 wins
UCONN 1576 wins
Villanova 1568 wins
Georgetown 1551 wins

Double digit wins over Pomeroy Top 10: Wade over Kentucky 2003, Novak over UConn 2006, Amigos over WVU 2009 & Cadougan over Wisconsin yesterday

Junior Cadougan dominated Wisconsin for a 60-50 win, marking only the 4th time in 32 chances that Marquette has beaten a Pomeroy Top 10 team by double digits. The other three were Dwayne Wade over Kentucky 83-69 in 2003, Steve Novak over Connecticut 94-79 in 2006 and the Three Amigos over WVU 75-53 in 2009. (complete list of games vs. Pomeroy 32 at bottom)

Wisconsin entered the game with the 9th best offense in the country at 114.1 points per trip down the court and Marquette shut them down at 75.76 points per 100 trips.  This was largely due to the 2nd best player in the game, Vander Blue, coming up with 4 steals to help force 10 Wisconsin turnovers in the first half - more than their average for a game - and on 20.3% of their trips.  Perhaps more importantly, MU held Wisconsin to a slightly below average 29.3% offensive rebounding percentage - an area where Wisconsin has sometimes dominated MU.  The one item where both teams were awful was at the line, where if both teams had hit the average percent of free throws MU would have won 65-57 instead of 60-50 (FT%+- shows MU hit 5 fewer FT than they should have and Wisconsin 7).

	Eff.	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR	FT%+-
Marquette	90.91	51.0%	22.0%	25.0%	32.7%	(5)
Average	100.00	48.0%	21.1%	32.7%	37.6%	-
Wisconsin	75.76	39.4%	20.3%	29.3%	44.2%	(7)

Using the Game NetAvg Cadougan was dominant at 9.89, but when you consider how clutch he was when the Badgers threatened, he was way better than the stats can measure.  A couple of times when the shot clock was about to expire he went to the hoops and scored or got the ball to Vander Blue for a trey.  His 6-to-1 assist to turnover for the game was clutch with the rest of the team struggling with turnovers (including a disturbing 7 by Lockett).  But most importantly, on a night when the rest of the team hit 25% from the line (3 of 12) Cadougan went 4 of 5.

Blue was easily the 2nd best player, but there were also excellent contributions from Davante Gardner, who physically beat up Jared Berggren (22nd best player in Value Add) while holding him scoreless in the first half, Jamil Wilson, and how about Derrick Wilson.  In the Florida game, D. Wilson joined Blue as the only two players with a good game, and his 3 assists made MU point guards 9 assists and 1 turnover for the game.

vs. Wisconsin	FG (3pt)	FGA	FT	FTA	FT%	OR	DR	TP	A	TO	BLK	S	Net Avg
Junior Cadougan, G	7	10	4	5	0.800	0	4	18	6	1	0	1	9.849
Vander Blue, G	7 (2)	14	1	3	0.333	0	5	17	2	0	0	4	5.941
Davante Gardner, F	5	9	-	2	0.000	1	7	10	0	2	3	0	1.444
Jamil Wilson, F	4	6	-	-	0.000	1	2	8	1	2	0	1	1.411
Derrick Wilson, G	1	3	-	2	0.000	2	0	2	3	0	0	2	1.033
Steve Taylor Jr., NA	-	-	-	1	0.000	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Juan Anderson, F	-	1	-	-	0.000	1	3	0	0	2	1	1	0.000
Jake Thomas, G	-	2	-	-	0.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Chris Otule, C	-	-	-	2	0.000	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
Trent Lockett, G	1 (1)	7	2	2	1.000	2	2	5	1	7	0	0	0.000
TOTAL	25	52	7	17	0.412	7	29	60	13	15	6	9
Wisconsin	17	52	9	23	0.391	12	21	50	13	13	3	7

The list of all games Wisconsin has played against teams in Pomeroy's top 10 are listed below.  MU is 8-24 in those games, and they are ordered from most lopsided win to most lopsided loss. Ironically the previous game at Florida was MU's 2nd biggest loss ever to a Top 10 team. Pomeroy's ratings date back to Dwyane Wade's last season, when MU beat Kentucky 83-69.

Date	Season	Pom Rnk	opponent	Result		Location	Margin
Sat Jan 10	2009	9	West Virginia	W, 75-53		Home	22
Tue Jan 3	2006	4	Connecticut	W, 94-79		Home	15
Sat Mar 29	2003	2	Kentucky	W, 83-69		Neutral	14
Sat Dec 8	2013	9	Wisconsin	W, 60-50		Home	10
Sat Dec 3	2012	5	Wisconsin	W, 61-54		Away	7
Thu Feb 24	2011	10	Connecticut	W, 74-67	OT	Away	7
Sat Dec 8	2008	5	Wisconsin	W, 81-76		Away	5
Thu Mar 27	2003	3	Pittsburgh	W, 77-74		Neutral	3
Tue Dec 29	2010	8	West Virginia	L, 63-62		Away	-1
Sat Mar 1	2008	7	Georgetown	L, 70-68	OT	Home	-2
Thu Feb 17	2005	5	Louisville	L, 64-61		Home	-3
Sun Mar 22	2009	6	Missouri	L, 83-79		Neutral	-4
Wed Nov 21	2008	8	Duke	L, 77-73		Neutral	-4
Sat Dec 9	2007	8	Wisconsin	L, 70-66		Home	-4
Sun Mar 1	2009	4	Louisville	L, 62-58		Away	-4
Sat Dec 20	2004	5	Wisconsin	L, 63-59		Away	-4
Mon Nov 22	2011	2	Duke	L, 82-77		Neutral	-5
Sat Dec 11	2011	7	Wisconsin	L, 69-64		Home	-5
Sat Jan 23	2010	4	Syracuse	L, 76-71		Away	-5
Sat Feb 4	2006	7	Villanova	L, 72-67		Away	-5
Sat Jan 7	2012	6	Syracuse	L, 73-66		Away	-7
Tue Jan 25	2011	10	Connecticut	L, 76-68		Home	-8
Sat Jan 8	2011	4	Pittsburgh	L, 89-81		Away	-8
Sat Dec 12	2010	9	Wisconsin	L, 72-63		Away	-9
Wed Feb 25	2009	3	Connecticut	L, 93-82		Home	-11
Mon Feb 4	2008	6	Louisville	L, 71-57		Home	-14
Wed Mar 4	2009	5	Pittsburgh	L, 90-75		Away	-15
Sat Feb 10	2007	5	Georgetown	L, 76-58		Away	-18
Thu Jan 17	2008	6	Louisville	L, 71-51		Away	-20
Sat Apr 5	2003	1	Kansas	L, 94-61		Neutral	-33
Thu Nov 29	2013	2	Florida	L, 82-49		Away	-33
Wed Jan 26	2005	5	Louisville	L, 99-52		Away	-47

Ryan's Badgers 8th biggest overachievers to come into Bradley Center at 5 p.m. today (ESPN2) as 2 1/2 to 4 point favorites

At the beginning of the season www.valueaddbasketball.com projected Wisconsin as the 25th best team in the country, but I certainly anticipated a win at the Bradley Center today due to Marquette's home court advantage.  Once it was announced Todd Mayo would not play this year it dropped Marquette out of the Value Add projected Top 40, but when Wisconsin lost Josh Gasser, one of the projected top 100 players in the country, it appeared Marquette would be a solid favorite to win a tight game today.

But give Bo Ryan his due - once again his sum is better than the projected individual players of the team.  His system is working again, putting Wisconsin at No. 9 in www.kenpom.com (making them the 8th biggest overachiever over Value Add projections based on the ratio of preseason Value Add to current Pomeroy rankings).  Jared Berggren was projected as an elite 130th best player of 4000 this year, and he has been even better at 22nd.  Ben Brust was projected in the top 10% of the country (314th) and instead has been even better in just missing the top 1% at 53rd.  Freshman Sam Dekker has almost lived up to his freshman billing at a projected 233rd best in the country, coming in just a little lower as one of the best 8% of all players in the country (320th).

We can make fun of the slow pace - and I do for fun - but put it all together and Las Vegas has moved Wisconsin to a 2 1/2 point favorite today and Pomeroy has them as a 4-point favorite to come into our building at 5 p.m. and win.

Below are the 25 teams that have most overcome their projected Value this year, followed by the 10 biggest duds led by UCLA and Memphis.  Most teams have been pretty close to their projection, and almost one-third have been with 10% of their preseason ranking (e.g. ranked 44th after being projected 40th, or 20th after being projected 22nd).  A few of the duds were due to players not actually playing, such as non-qualifications at Providence or me still having Terrell Stoglin in the database for Maryland after he had left.

	Underestimated by Value Add	Conf	Actual	Projected	Better
1	Florida	SEC	2	15	7.50
2	Gonzaga	WCC	8	34	4.25
3	Michigan	B10	7	29	4.14
4	Syracuse	BE	5	19	3.80
5	Duke	ACC	4	13	3.25
6	Cincinnati	BE	15	43	2.87
7	Virginia Commonwealth	A10	18	50	2.78
8	Wisconsin	B10	9	25	2.78
9	Purdue	B10	36	97	2.69
10	Belmont	OVC	31	81	2.61
11	Wichita St.	MVC	28	73	2.61
12	Illinois	B10	42	108	2.57
13	Clemson	ACC	51	130	2.55
14	Middle Tennessee	SB	40	92	2.30
15	Wyoming	MWC	62	140	2.26
16	North Dakota St.	Sum	66	141	2.14
17	Illinois Chicago	Horz	141	301	2.13
18	Bucknell	Pat	39	80	2.05
19	Santa Clara	WCC	123	251	2.04
20	New Mexico St.	WAC	99	198	2.00
21	Minnesota	B10	10	20	2.00
22	Virginia	ACC	35	69	1.97
23	San Francisco	WCC	108	211	1.95
24	Boise St.	MWC	74	142	1.92
25	UC Irvine	BW	149	278	1.87
	Value Add projection duds	Conf	Actual	Projected	Better
1	UCLA	P12	33	2	0.06
2	Memphis	CUSA	25	3	0.12
3	North Carolina St.	ACC	29	6	0.21
4	Arkansas	SEC	98	21	0.21
5	Baylor	B12	27	7	0.26
6	Texas	B12	41	11	0.27
7	Texas Tech	B12	210	62	0.30
8	Maryland	ACC	70	22	0.31
9	Houston	CUSA	199	63	0.32
10	Providence	BE	75	24	0.32

Top 40 Catholic basketball teams and 'All-Catholic team'

I oppose the formation of a "Catholic League" for basketball.  However, I ranked the Catholic Universities who play D1 hoops in light of the tumult of realignment news surrounding Louisville leaving the heavily Catholic Big East, the Catholic flagship Notre Dame going back to the football championship, and the passing away of the great Rick Majerus who bookended his career at Jesuit schools Marquette and St. Louis.

Below I ranked the top 40 colleges and top 40 players on Catholic teams into eight "All-Catholic squads."  Obviously by "All-Catholic" I mean players who play for Catholic schools, so if we did these for football Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o would be at the top of the "All-Catholic" football list for playing for Notre Dame, while a young Catholic Jim McMahon would not have been listed as a "All-Catholic" quarterback when he led Brigham Young.  I based the team rating mainly on www.kenpom.com through today, but if a team was ranked then I averaged that with both the AP and ESPN poll.  For players, I based it half on the average of their latest Value Add appearing as "2013 Act" and their projected Value Add based on all of last season ("2013 Proj") as they both appear on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

While Notre Dame had the huge upset of Kentucky, and I expect Georgetown to shoot to the top now that Otto Porter is back from his concussion, right now you have to look further west for the top two Catholic teams in the land.

Kevin Pangos (3.9 APG) and Elias Harris (15.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg) both make the "2nd All-Catholic Team" (see all 8 teams below the team ratings) as two of the top 10 Catholic players in the country who are also expected to play in the NBA.  They have led Gonzaga to lopsided wins over West Virginia, Oklahoma, Davidson and others en route to an 8-0 record and the top shooting team in the country (53.3% field goal percentages).  Comments on other teams appear below the list of teams.  Here are the top 40 - and by the way St. Francis of Pennsylvania is the only Catholic team that does not make the top 40 since there are 41 Catholics teams:

	Catholic University	Conf	Pom	AP	ESPN	Ave
1	Gonzaga	WCC	3	10	10	8
2	Creighton	MVC	32	16	13	20
3	Notre Dame	BE	20	22	25	22
4	Georgetown	BE	37	15	23	25
5	Saint Joseph's	A10	27			27
6	St. Louis	A10	46			46
7	Marquette	BE	50	43		47
8	St. Mary's	WCC	66			66
9	Providence	BE	70			70
10	Seton Hall	BE	73			73
11	St. John's	BE	79			79
12	La Salle	A10	83			83
13	Xavier	A10	89			89
14	St. Bonaventure	A10	95			95
15	Dayton	A10	96			96
16	Villanova	BE	98			98
17	Iona	MAAC	102			102
18	Santa Clara	WCC	113			113
19	DePaul	BE	117			117
20	Loyola MD	MAAC	118			118
21	Detroit	Horz	130			130
22	San Francisco	WCC	137			137
23	Boston College	ACC	151			151
24	Fairfield	MAAC	155			155
25	Niagara	MAAC	158			158
26	Duquesne	A10	171			171
27	Manhattan	MAAC	177			177
28	Loyola Marymount	WCC	181			181
29	San Diego	WCC	191			191
30	St. Francis NY	NEC	202			202
31	Canisius	MAAC	210			210
32	Holy Cross	Pat	216			216
33	Siena	MAAC	218			218
34	Portland	WCC	223			223
35	Sacred Heart	NEC	232			232
36	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	237			237
37	Loyola Chicago	Horz	238			238
38	St. Peter's	MAAC	254			254
39	Fordham	A10	257			257
40	Seattle	WAC	268			268

National Player of the Year candidate Doug McDermott has helped Creighton nudge out Notre Dame and Georgetown as the second best Catholic team.  However, Otto Porter is my pick for Big East POY and would almost certainly rank 1st on this list if he had not missed the first several games with a concussion.  Jack Cooley has been even better than advertised to help the Irish rank #3 just ahead of Georgetown.  Stars Matthew Dellavedova (16.6 ppg, 5.4 apg) and Bryce Cooley (22.1 ppg, 4.4 apg) round out the 1st team and have run great offenses for St. Mary's and Providence to make them #8 and #9 respectively - the latter despite the Friars not having a couple of stars qualify.

	1st team 'All Catholic'	School	Ht	Yr	28-Nov	Proj	Ave
1	Matthew Dellavedova	St. Mary's	6' 4"	Sr	9.11	7.03	8.07
2	Doug McDermott	Creighton	6' 8"	Jr	5.30	10.23	7.77
3	Bryce Cotton	Providence	6' 1"	Jr	9.90	5.42	7.66
4	Jack Cooley	Notre Dame	6' 9"	Sr	7.12	7.82	7.47
5	Otto Porter	Georgetown	6' 8"	So	5.62	9.08	7.35

In addition to the Gonzaga duo on the 2nd team, we've all seen how great Edwin (17.9 ppg) has been for Seton Hall (#10).  Armand is only 2nd on Iona (behind Momo Jones) at 20.6 ppg, but put up 28 to crush Wake Forest 94-68 and has Iona 17th at 3-2.  While St. Francis NY is only 30th as a team, Cannon's 16.0 ppg and 9.6 rpg included an 11-rebound performance at Illinois.

	2nd team 'All Catholic'	School	Ht	Yr	28-Nov	Proj	Ave
6	Fuquan Edwin	Seton Hall	6' 6"	Jr	8.04	6.54	7.29
7	Jalen Cannon	St. Francis NY	6' 6"	So	8.29	5.64	6.97
8	Elias Harris	Gonzaga	6' 8"	Sr	8.49	5.12	6.81
9	Kevin Pangos	Gonzaga	6' 2"	So	5.37	8.08	6.73
10	Sean Armand	Iona	6' 4"	Jr	9.26	4.11	6.69

Pomeroy calculated St. Joseph's as the 5th best Catholic School, but Hawks fans will be quick to remind him of Galloway's 13 point, 3 assist performance in their upset of Notre Dame and his customary two steals in a route of Harvard. Harrison's 26 point, 6 rebound performance to lead a route of South Carolina has St. John's up to #11 and closing on Marquette.

	3rd team 'All Catholic'	School	Ht	Yr	28-Nov	Proj	Ave
11	Ray McCallum	Detroit	6' 3"	Jr	7.00	6.19	6.60
12	D'Angelo Harrison	St. John's	6' 3"	So	5.72	7.43	6.58
13	Langston Galloway	Saint Joseph's	6' 2"	Jr	4.45	8.55	6.50
14	Anthony Ireland	Loyola Marymount	5' 10"	Jr	7.52	4.60	6.06
15	Marc Trasolini	Santa Clara	6' 9"	Sr	9.14	2.89	6.02

Evans 14.0 ppg and 6.9 rpg are fantastic numbers when you consider that the team that Majerus built at St. Louis is ranked 6th and one spot ahead of Marquette despite scoring only 64.4 ppg - the 247th best total in the US.  Momo Jones is the second half of Iona's one-two punch, while Dillard has led Dayton to the 15th best spot among Catholic schools.

	4th team 'All Catholic'	School	Ht	Yr	28-Nov	Proj	Ave
16	Kevin Dillard	Dayton	6' 0	Sr	6.14	5.43	5.79
17	George Beamon	Manhattan	6' 4"	Sr	5.83	4.90	5.37
18	Eric Atkins	Notre Dame	6' 2"	Jr	6.06	4.59	5.33
19	Dwayne Evans	St. Louis	6' 5"	Jr	6.78	3.83	5.31
20	Lamont Jones	Iona	6' 0	Sr	7.27	3.00	5.14

You see some of the additional stars on the power teams above in addition to Cormier leading Loyola-MD into the #20 spot and ahead of the other two Loyola schools.

	5th team 'All Catholic'	School	Ht	Yr	28-Nov	Proj	Ave
21	Jerian Grant	Notre Dame	6' 5"	Jr	3.40	6.76	5.08
22	C.J. Aiken	Saint Joseph's	6' 9"	Jr	3.98	6.15	5.07
23	Stephen Holt	St. Mary's	6' 4"	Jr	4.42	5.39	4.91
24	Dylon Cormier	Loyola MD	6' 2"	Jr	5.48	4.23	4.86
25	Grant Gibbs	Creighton	6' 5"	Sr	5.69	3.89	4.79

While Marquette ranks #7 among Catholic schools and is still getting one vote for 25th from an AP writer, the strong stats of Davante Gardner and Jamil Wilson were mainly rolled up against terrible defenses prior to being shut down by Florida.  Like St. Louis, MU right now is a bubble team, but certainly has the incredible depth on the roster to move way up. Despite the slaughter at Florida, Derrick Wilson and Vander Blue were the two players who improved their Value Add during the game.

	6th team 'All Catholic'	School	Ht	Yr	28-Nov	Proj	Ave
26	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6' 8"	Jr	4.58	4.87	4.73
27	Kevin Foster (SC)	Santa Clara	6' 2"	Sr	9.36	0.00	4.68
28	Johnny Dee	San Diego	6' 0	So	4.66	4.65	4.66
29	Jamil Wilson	Marquette	6' 7"	Jr	5.50	3.56	4.53
30	LaDontae Henton	Providence	6' 6"	So	2.22	6.80	4.51

DePaul hopes a new arena will revive their program, but it took 19 points and 5 assists from Young (16.7 ppg, 4.1 apg) to deliver a desperate road win at Auburn to get DePaul to 4-3.

	7th team 'All Catholic'	School	Ht	Yr	28-Nov	Proj	Ave
31	Gregory Echenique	Creighton	6' 9"	Sr	5.10	3.52	4.31
32	Carl Jones	Saint Joseph's	5' 11"	Sr	5.29	3.28	4.29
33	Brandon Young	DePaul	6' 4"	Jr	4.47	4.08	4.28
34	Ronald Roberts	Saint Joseph's	6' 8"	Jr	5.04	3.50	4.27
35	Juan'ya Green	Niagara	6' 3"	So	5.33	3.04	4.19

 LaSalle has actually had very balanced play from five players to become the 12th best Catholic school to date, but Duren and Wright are the returning 1-2 punch that both sneak into the top 40 Catholic players - or 8th team "All-Catholic."

	8th team 'All Catholic'	School	Ht	Yr	28-Nov	Proj	Ave
36	Tyreek Duren	La Salle	6' 0	Jr	2.46	5.86	4.16
37	Cody Doolin	San Francisco	6' 2"	Jr	5.07	3.16	4.12
38	Ethan Wragge	Creighton	6' 7"	Jr	5.30	2.91	4.11
39	Jerrell Wright	La Salle	6' 8"	So	2.35	5.67	4.01
40	O.D. Anosike	Siena	6' 8"	Sr	4.44	3.43	3.94

Obviously Marquette has another chance to show the depth can produce Saturday when they host Wisconsin.  Their three potential big games before this were cancelled (Ohio State), averted by a buzzer beater in the previous game (UNC) and a disaster (33-point loss at Florida).  A loss Saturday would mean MU has no chances for a non-conference win against a current top 100 Pomeroy team, so this is a chance to show the potential.

Video tributes to Rick Majerus

Andy Katz

Digger Phelps

Fran Fraschilla

Seth Greenberg

 

Tom Crean (11:13 of video)


Local news video of Majerus passing can be found here.   http://bcove.me/kxkz63m6

Remembering Rick Majerus

"Absolutely heartbroken with these reports. Prayers to Coach Majerus' family and all the wonderful student-athletes & staff at Saint Louis U."
- Frank Haith


"Rick Majerus was on my Mount Rushmore of basketball teachers along with Hubie Brown, Bob Knight, Dick Bennett and Bob Hurley."
- Fran Fraschilla


"RIP to my friend and mentor Coach Majerus. I learned so much about the game and life. We lost a One of the best! My heart is heavy tonight."
- Porter Moser


"As an institution, a program, and as a coach, we are saddened by Coach Majerus' passing.   The game has lost one of the great innovators whose mark will never be forgotten.  He will be missed by the entire college basketball community. Our thoughts and prayers are with the Majerus family."
- Buzz Williams


"He was a brilliant, brilliant coach.  There was a point in my career when I was asked, 'What coach would you pay to see?' I told them that if I could go to anybody's practice, it'd be Rick Majerus'. I never got to do that."
- Tom Crean


"I was saddened to hear about the losses. Rick's one of the all-time greats."
- John Calipari


"That's a tough one for me," said an emotional Rivers, visibly shaken by Majerus' death. "He's the one that gave me my name.  I knew before (the game) that he wasn't going to make it through the night. I don't want to talk much about it.''"
- Doc Rivers 


“He’s done so much for basketball at Marquette and all through the state of Wisconsin.  For me personally, he’s always been there. He’s one of those guys who, if you don’t see Rick for a while and when something was going wrong and you needed help, boom, he’d be there. He did so much for me over the years when I was trying to get my career going. Just extending himself and giving you whatever it is you needed, whether it was a phone call, having me come out to Salt Lake and staying with him four or five weeks at a time working. He’d basically give you the shirt off his back, if that’s what you needed. He would do whatever it took. He’s going to be really missed. Great person.”
- Jim Boylan 


"a fundamentalist guy with a great basketball mind"
- Jerry Sloan


"Very sad to hear of the passing of Rick Majerus. I loved covering him and getting to know him. Huge loss to basketball, to say the least."
- Pat Forde


"So sad to hear about the passing of former ESPN colleague and one helluva coach Rick Majerus. He will be missed by many. May he RIP."
- Dick Vitale


''Rick would hold court at night with a case of beer in the basement.  Phenomenal coach, a better person, cared about family, cared about people. He will be missed by everyone.'
- Steve Fisher

''We've certainly lost a member of the coaching fraternity that all of us respect.  It became very apparent when you prepared for his team and watched him coach against your team that there are very few coaches that are more prepared, more detail-oriented that knew the game comprehensively than Rick Majerus. You could also sense that basketball, the game, the love of the game was really part of his life.''
- Sean Miller


''He was a great coach and a really, really good person.  It's a sad day for basketball because he was a brilliant man.''
- Ben Howland


 

 

Rick Majerus dead at age 64. RIP

Former Marquette basketball coach Rick Majerus passed away this evening at the age of 64.  Majerus had a history of heart troubles for many years and recently resigned from his head coaching position at Saint Louis University.

A true warrior.  RIP Coach Majerus.


http://www.blocku.com/2012/12/1/3716138/utah-legend-rick-majerus-has-passed-away