Happy National Marquette Day!

Scrambled Eggs is celebrating National Marquette Day by having a giddy pod discussing the Marquette victory over Xavier. We start by talking about what a game Markus Howard had and the records he tied or broke. We then talk about the new starting line-up and it's impact on the game and potentially the rest of the season. Related to the new line-up, we discuss JaJuan Johnson's DNP-CD and wildly speculate about cause and length of the "suspension". The conversation turns to the last 4 games of the regular season with Marquette squarely on the bubble. Needless to say, the St John's game on Tuesday for Al's Night is absolutely critical. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Year three of the rebuild....how it is going thus far?

I've long been an advocate that it takes four to five years to do a rebuild correctly.  Allows for two freshman classes in to matriculate, concentrate on the high school ranks, build the culture from top to bottom, add pieces where need be (transfers, etc).  Some coaches turn things around faster, others never make it.  Some take shortcuts, or have a roster waiting for them that is more ready to go.  How good the conference is or the schedule also has tremendous bearing in the results. Very difficult to compare one situation to another because none of them are alike.  One position player can make all the difference in the world.

Where do we stand as the end of February approaches in year three of the rebuild for Coach Wojo? Simply put, we're absolutely heading in the right direction and possibly ahead of timelines.  Some fans will demand turnarounds in 2 or 3 years, but looking at what Wojo inherited, what players remained, the quality of the league last year and this year, we're doing just fine thank you.

In Buzz's last year at MU, a year chosen to win newly formed weaker Big East (a conference that would finish ranked 4th overall), MU finished the year 6th and Buzz left for Virginia Tech.  Half of the freshman on that team are gone. The one incoming Buzz recruit willing to sign, Sandy Cohen, is now in the Horizon League.  Buzz was able to bring over Luke Fischer in a transfer for the second semester of Wojo's first year, and has been a solid player for the Warriors.

This season, we are currently trending ahead of Buzz's last year in every major computerized rating system.  Using Ken Pomeroy, Jeff Sagarin, RPI, and BPI as source data.  In fact, looking at this year's team, they are not far behind in some ratings of Buzz's 2012-13 year that won the Big East and ran to the Elite 8.  What's equally impressive is Wojo is doing in a conference ranked higher than Buzz's final year.  The Big East currently sits 3rd and has reigning national champion Villanova ready for another deep run.

Plenty of work still to be done and a finish with or without a NCAA berth would not be surprising. The margin for error is small.  We are a bubble team no matter how you slice it. Our defense has plenty of issues, we are young at key positions and lack depth in areas as well.  If our three ball shooting is off, it's over. That being said, this is a team that is capable on any given night and using data comparisons, has progressed nicely in Wojo's first three years at the helm. The doom and gloomers, step back from the ledge. If it doesn't happen this year, it will next.

Where does #mubb go from here?

Well, things look a lot different in mid-February than they did in late January. The pod starts with an overview of the poor performance and Georgetown and looks at it within the context of the last 3 weeks. The defense has struggled all season but recently the offense has struggled as well. With the context of the on-going struggles, we discuss some concerning quotes Duane Wilson shared after the Georgetown game. Does it mean the staff has lost this team, or is this a sign of immaturity within the roster? We then talk about the balance of the season and what Marquette has to do to make the tournament for the first time in four years. Lastly, we focus on the upcoming Xavier game and National Marquette game, including the "stripe out". Let's try to make this thing work, so if you are going to the game wear the right colors. Let's hope we can pull off the stripe out and a victory the team desperately needs. Download this episode (right click and save)

Comparing NCAA's Release of Top 16 with Value Add's New Injury Adjusted Rankings

Well, that was depressing. It looks like the scouting report on Marquette's previous unstoppable offense is going to require some adjustments. The new Value Add rankings adjust for players who are no longer suiting up for the season or have returned (e.g. Arizona shoots up from 22nd to 7th in the rankings due to Allonzo Trier finally taking the court in the 19th game of the season. On the flipside, Xavier drops all the way from 27th to 53rd after losing Edmond Sumner and will need Trevon Bluiett and company to step up. The five teams the most hurt by losing players:

1. Xavier 6.64 (Trevon Bluiett #5)
2. St. Joseph’s 5.45
3. Creighton 5.16
4. Ohio 3.56
5. Indiana 3.35

Going into Saturday's blowout loss at Georgetown, Marquette still calculated as a No. 9 seed with Luke Fischer cracking the top 5% of all players (top 200) and Andrew Rowsey cracking the top 300.

Here are the Value Add individual rankings going into Saturday, complete with notes on players who have returned to give a boost or been lost to injury. The team totals in light of these adjustments are here and summarized below as how the seeds would be awarded based purely on the sum values of the players now on the floor, with today's NCAA Top 16 rating in parenthesis.

Seed Team Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game Conf
1 Gonzaga 49.06 WCC (actual No. 4 overall)
1 Virginia 47.69 ACC (actual No. 10 overall)
1 North Carolina 46.83 ACC (actual No. 5 overall)
1 Villanova 45.75 BE (actual No. 1 overall)

2 Louisville 44.82 ACC (actual No. 7 overall)
2 Florida 43.94 SEC (actual No. 11 overall)
2 Arizona 43.79 P12 (actual No. 6 overall)
2 Kentucky 43.03 SEC (actual No. 12 overall)

3 West Virginia 42.57 B12 (actual No. 14 overall)
3 Wichita St. 42.23 MVC
3 Baylor 42.21 B12 (actual No. 3 overall)
3 Kansas 42.17 B12 (actual No. 2 overall)

4 Southern Methodist 42.09 Amer
4 Wisconsin 41.97 B10
4 Duke 41.05 ACC (actual No. 16 overall)
4 Florida St. 39.65 ACC (actual No. 6 overall)

5 Purdue 39.62 B10
5 St. Mary’s 39.24 WCC
5 Butler 38.68 BE (actual No. 13 overall)
5 UCLA 38.51 P12 (actual No. 15 overall)

6 Oregon 37.51 P12 (actual No. 8 overall)
6 Cincinnati 37.36 Amer
6 Oklahoma St. 36.73 B12
6 Iowa St. 36.57 B12

7 Dayton 35.77 A10
7 Notre Dame 35.69 ACC
7 Wake Forest 35.32 ACC
7 Michigan 34.76 B10

8 South Carolina 34.76 SEC
8 Kansas St. 34.2 B12
8 Utah 33.21 P12
8 Northwestern 33.1 B10

9 Clemson 32.1 ACC
9 Marquette 31.83 BE
9 Texas Tech 31.7 B12
9 Maryland 31.67 B10

10 Minnesota 31.66 B10
10 Houston 31.46 Amer
10 Miami FL 31.13 ACC
10 Texas Christian 30.95 B12

11 Illinois St. 30.74 MVC
11 Creighton 30.39 BE
11.5 Virginia Commonwealth 30.37 A10
11.5 Syracuse 30.29 ACC
11.5 Rhode Island 30.25 A10
11.5 Southern California 30.15 P12

12 Middle Tennessee 28.85 CUSA
12 UNC Wilmington 28.61 CAA
12 Nevada 26.93 MWC
12 Belmont 25.89 OVC

13 Vermont 25.85 AE
13 Chattanooga 25.74 SC
13 Bucknell 25.15 Pat
13 Princeton 24.88 Ivy

14 Texas Arlington 24.54 SB
14 New Mexico St. 23.38 WAC
14 Valparaiso 22.62 Horz
14 Akron 22.53 MAC

15 Monmouth 22.43 MAAC
15 North Carolina Central 21.53 MEAC
15 Fort Wayne 21.24 Sum
15 UNC Asheville 20.9 BSth

16 UC Irvine 20.43 BW
16 Florida Gulf Coast 19.73 ASun
16.5 Eastern Washington 16.92 BSky
16.5 Texas A&;M Corpus Christi 14.07 Slnd
16.5 Wagner 11.85 NEC
16.5 Texas Southern 10.9 SWAC

Catching up on the last couple of games, diving into numbers, and.....UCONN???

We're back on the podcasting train after a few games with less than stellar results, so we start with reviewing the last 3 games for Marquette. Part of the discussion is again, what went wrong and is there anything to do to fix it. We then spend some considerable time advertising for KenPom by digging through some offensive(posted below) and defensive numbers to get a sense of what this team might be able to tweak over the next few weeks to get wins that they need to make the tournament. We also talk about the tournament and what Marquette's odds are of making it, and one of us uses the term super soft bubble. The bubble talk leads to a discussion around the last 6 games on #mubb schedule and whether they can win at least 3(preferably 4) and if so against who. Then the conversation takes a turn for the unexpected and we talk UCONN to the Big East rumors and what the circumstances would be where that would happen. We close out the show with a quick discussion of Georgetown and a prediction of the results. And we take a few pokes at Anonymous Eagle along the way. Enjoy! Offensive efficiency vs shot volume Download this episode (right click and save)

Big East Tourney Chances Devastated by Injuries to Sumner and Watson

The Big East's chances for a monumental tournament were dealt severe blows with season-ending injuries to point guards for two of their four ranked teams project both as first round losers rather than winners.

The injury to Mo Watson before Creighton's game against Marquette indicates their Sagarin Rating of 87.56 (21st overall) is actually 84.12 (34th, one spot behind Marquette) without Watson, whose Value Add is 5.40 (points per game impact). Due to the Domino effect of losing a player (see explanation in Big Apple Buckets), you subtract the value of a team's seventh best player (1.96 for Creighton) to get the actual impact in points per game off their Sagarin Rating so 87.56 for season to date, MINUS 5.40 for how many of those points were the result of Watson being on the floor, PLUS 1.96 to estimate the overall additional points based on the strength of Creighton's other players who need to extend their game.

Unfortunately, the news is even more devastating for Xavier with Edmond Sumner going down for the season with an ACL. Sumner is a top 100 player with a 7.32 Points Per Game Impact (Value Add), so the math for Xavier's Sagarin Rating without him is 86.79 (24th best) MINUS his 7.32, PLUS their 7th best player's 1.89 for a new rating of 81.36 for 56th place without Sumner. They should certainly still make the tournament, but they will need players to step up beyond what is expected to get a win in the tournament.

On the flip side, I do not see any Big East teams who have a late comer (2nd semester transfer or player returning from injury) who will elevate them substantially. However, to give an example of teams that might be improving, I point to star Austin Wiley of my hometown team Auburn. My graphics are not great, but Wiley is a potentially dominant center who so far is worth 1.96 points - but when you scroll to the right the final number of ^12^ indicates he only played 12 of the teams 21 games.

Because he has played in tougher SEC games, you would expect his value to actually be at least double even though he has played slightly more than half the games. (When a player is not on the floor he gets a ZERO Value Add for that game). Therefore he is probably about a 3.92 rather than a 1.96, so if you add the additional 1.96 to Auburn's Sagarin rating of 78.94, the real team rating with Wiley is 80.83, a jump from 72nd to 60th.

Auburn has an uphill battle to make the tournament because the games they played before Wiley still count, but it appears Bruce Pearl has a team that is at least on the verge of being March Madness quality, so if they can win 22 games between the regular season and SEC tournament - starting with a win against a hot Tennessee team tonight, they could sneak in. Unlikely, but at 60th a team that could easily make the NIT and win at least one game.

I hope this post works as a Value Add guide to measure the impact of missing and returning players and understand who much they impact a teams actual Sagarin rating and if they should be favored in a given game.

Reinhardt and Wilson surge to give MU one of deepest teams; 8-seed in tournament

In a season  highlighted by the play of two of the top freshmen in the country, veterans Katin Reinhardt and Duane Wilson surged to carry Marquette to an projected 8-seed Monday according to both ESPN and CBS Sports. 

Due to slow starts to the season in which they were worth close to 0.00 points per game, Wilson and Reinhardt still rank as the 8th and 7th most valuable players over the season as a whole, worth an improvement of 1.99 and 2.43 in Marquette's victory/defeat margin for game due to great recent performances.

Marquette's ability to have eight different players who can be the difference in a big game makes them one of the most balanced teams in the country. Only 10 teams have eight players ranked higher than Wilson's 1.99 Value Add, and only 14 teams have seven players with a higher rating than Reinhardt's surging 2.43. Here are the teams, followed by where all of Marquette's players rank.

It is very hard to be a projected 8-seed with no players in the Top 200, but Marquette is doing it with incredible balance. Marquette's victim Villanova is the only team in the nation with three top 50 players in Josh Hart (ranked No. 1), Jalen Brunson (No. 14) and Mikal Bridges (No. 47).

Rnk	Best 8th Players 1/29/2017	Teams w/ Deepest Bench	Value
1	Mamadi Diakite #25	Virginia	3.34
2	Killian Tillie #33	Gonzaga	3.12
3	Zach Brown #1	Wichita St.	3.05
4	VJ King #0	Louisville	2.49
5	John Egbunu #15	Florida	2.47
6	Kethan Savage #11	Butler	2.44
7	Dominique Hawkins #25	Kentucky	2.33
8	CJ Walker #2	Florida St.	2.15
9	Theo Pinson #1	North Carolina	2.07
10	Parker Van Dyke #5	Utah	2.04
11	Keanu Pinder #25	Arizona	1.99
12	Duane Wilson #1	Marquette	1.99
13	Dustin Thomas #13	Arkansas	1.90
14	Justin Jenifer #3	Cincinnati	1.89
15	King McClure #22	Baylor	1.88
16	Ebuka Izundu #15	Miami FL	1.86
17	Sagaba Konate #50	West Virginia	1.83
18	Admiral Schofield #5	Tennessee	1.78
19	Kaiser Gates #22	Xavier	1.76
20	Isaac Banks #10	East Tennessee St.	1.62

Rnk	Best 7th Players 1/29/2017	Teams w/ Deepest Bench	Value
1	Josh Perkins #13	Gonzaga	4.30
2	Anas Mahmoud #14	Louisville	4.10
3	Justin Leon #23	Florida	3.51
4	Jack Salt #33	Virginia	3.48
5	Shaquille Morris #24	Wichita St.	3.44
6	Nate Fowler #51	Butler	3.44
7	Casey Benson #2	Oregon	3.03
8	Terry Maston #31	Baylor	2.87
9	Nate Britt #0	North Carolina	2.71
10	Lamont West #15	West Virginia	2.71
11	Carlton Bragg #15	Kansas	2.60
12	Khalil Iverson #21	Wisconsin	2.60
13	Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman #12	Michigan	2.49
14	Mychal Mulder #11	Kentucky	2.45
15	Katin Reinhardt #22	Marquette	2.43
16	Ryan Cline #14	Purdue	2.33
17	Temple Gibbs #2	Notre Dame	2.29
18	Devontavius Payne #1	East Tennessee St.	2.27
19	Eric Paschall #4	Villanova	2.27
20	Jarquez Smith #23	Florida St.	2.26

Marquette player ranks.

Rnk	Player	Pts/Gm
207	Luke Fischer #40	5.84
346	Markus Howard #0	4.82
360	Andrew Rowsey #30	4.75
395	Sam Hauser #10	4.46
423	JaJuan Johnson #23	4.32
582	Haanif Cheatham #25	3.69
962	Katin Reinhardt #22	2.43
1151	Duane Wilson #1	1.99
2012	Traci Carter #21	0.61
2102	Matt Heldt #12	0.52
9999	Sandy Cohen #5	0.00

It was still a good week for #mubb

The Scrambled Eggs pod refuses to let losing to Providence to cause us panic or not enjoy the last week and a half of Marquette basketball. As part of that theme, we decided to go out of order and get the Providence game analysis out of the way first. We then talk about the Villanova game and how the experience was for each of us with one of us at the Bradley Center and the other on tape delay. We then play a new game for predicting the future associated with Marquette basketball: "Fact or Alternative Fact". Lastly, we close out with some light recruiting/roster discussion and why this is a most not lose week. Bottom line, MU is in good position, but this week better result in two wins or we've given it all back. As always, enjoy! Couldn't help myself Download this episode (right click and save)

What a difference a quality win makes

Prepare yourselves, we thought this was going to be a relatively quick pod after a big Marquette win on Saturday against Creighton; turns out we have a lot to talk about. We talk about the big win, did it matter that Watson didn't play for Creighton, and how much the win impacts Marquette for the rest of the season. We also preview the Villanova game including debating the relative values of a win or a loss in the game. We also spend some time cajoling fans to show up at the Bradley Center on Tuesday. As always, enjoy the pod. Download this episode (right click and save)

Apparently hope isn't a strategy, but that doesn't stop us from trying

Every MU fan in the 2nd Half against Butler Marquette is where we thought they would be after the Seton Hall, DePaul and Butler games...the only problem is the way they got there. We start out with a quick review of the first two games played since our last pod and any impressions we took from them. Then we turn to the crater that is Marquette's defense after the Butler game. We talk about the "collapse" and where the blame lays (spoiler: a lot of places), put into context how bad the defense was, and ask what should change. We also have a discussion of Luke Fischer performance and whether it is time for a change in the 5 spot, or at least a significant modification of minute distribution. Next up is a Creighton match-up that has a different look to it now that their senior PG, Mo Watson, went down with an ACL tear. We discuss whether that gives us a better chance and how it impacts the game. We close out the pod with some light recruiting news. Enjoy and let's hope the team forgets to pack it's ole defense for this road trip. Download this episode (right click and save)

Howard Surging, MU 1st Four Out in Value Add

While Markus Howard continues to surge toward the top 5% (top 200) of all players at www.valueaddbasketball.com, the earlier departure of Traci Carter lowers Marquette's team Value Add just enough to classify as the "1st Four Out," the same status MU has with Jerry Palm. Meanwhile, RPI Forecast calculates MU in the "Next Four Out."

The basic rule is that if a player has to miss a game it will cost a team his Value Add, however it will be slightly lower if the 9th best player on the team is higher than zero. So if Luke Fischer misses a game, his 6.39 Value Add indicates Marquette is actually about 5.39 points worse off since Katin Reinhardt is in the 9th spot and worth 1.00. This is not due to Reinhardt "replacing" Fischer as it would be in baseball WAR where a backup shortstop replaces a short stop, but rather the "domino" effect outlined in this Big Apples piece on each player becoming a little less efficient as they are stretched to take on more minutes and tougher shots.

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That was a suboptimal performance from Marquette, let's see if they can bounce back

Two Marquette games and two bad outcomes for very different reasons. First we focus on the most recent game, the drubbing in Philadelphia by Villanova. The game was a reflection of the talent disparity between Marquette and Villanova, but we try and figure out how reflective the result is on how MU can perform the rest of the season. We also talk about the performance of Luke Fischer and Haanif Cheatham's offensive issues within Big East play. We shift the topic to the tough, last minute loss at Seton Hall. With much chagrin, we relive the last minutes of the game and discuss what that may tell us about the team going forward. Having talked about all that, we take stock of where the team is currently and what might happen over the next several weeks. We talk about the rematch with Seton Hall and the always unsettling match up with DePail. While the last week has been pretty dishearening for Marquette fans, we find reason to be positive about the upcoming week for Marquette. Last, we spend a little time talking about potential recruit Harry Froling. Enjoy the week and lets hope Marquette can take a couple of victories this week. Download this episode (right click and save)

Marquette shoots for second win over a No. 1 team

Marquette will try for a win over a No. 1 ranked team for the only time besides Dwyane Wade's win over Kentucky.

Kenpom gives Marquette a 14% chance of the upset in the toughest game of the year - at Villanova. Based on Value Add, Nova's offense beats out Creighton for best in the conference, and their defense beats out Xavier for best. Marquette still ranks ahead of Seton Hall despite the heartbreaking loss there.

Rnk	Team	Off	Def	Value Add
2	Villanova	37.3	-11.06	48.54
12	Butler	32.82	-9.36	43.07
18	Xavier	30.7	-9.99	40.69
25	Creighton	34.41	-4.41	39.43
36	Marquette	29.19	-5.37	35.01
52	Seton Hall	24.5	-7.56	32.66
68	Georgetown	26.43	-3.13	31.04
74	Providence	21.52	-8.35	29.98
108	St. John's	22.75	-2.65	26.06
198	DePaul	19.69	1.03	20.72

Nova has three of the top six players in the conference, while Marquette is very balanced, with five players in the top 500, however noone in the top 200 or top 15 in the Big East.

Season Rank	Player	Team	Value
1	Josh Hart^ 3	Villanova	16.11
11	JP Macura^ 55	Xavier	11.21
34	Jalen Brunson^ 1	Villanova	9.96
64	Shamorie Ponds^ 2	St. John's	9.1
68	Khyri Thomas^ 2	Creighton	8.95
76	Mikal Bridges^ 25	Villanova	8.74
77	Rodney Pryor^ 23	Georgetown	8.72
83	Justin Patton^ 23	Creighton	8.58
84	Andrew Chrabascz^ 45	Butler	8.56
88	Edmond Sumner^ 4	Xavier	8.51
92	Trevon Bluiett^ 5	Xavier	8.48
134	Khadeen Carrington^ 0	Seton Hall	7.51
149	LJ Peak^ 0	Georgetown	7.39
165	Emmitt Holt^ 15	Providence	7.22
166	Tyler Lewis^ 1	Butler	7.18
202	Maurice Watson^ 10	Creighton	6.78
210	Jalen Lindsey^ 21	Providence	6.67
223	Luke Fischer^ 40	Marquette	6.59
232	Angel Delgado^ 31	Seton Hall	6.53
239	Kris Jenkins^ 2	Villanova	6.45
256	Rodney Bullock^ 5	Providence	6.31
278	Tyler Wideman^ 4	Butler	6.2
281	Kelan Martin^ 30	Butler	6.17
295	JaJuan Johnson^ 23	Marquette	6.06
373	Desi Rodriguez^ 20	Seton Hall	5.44
384	Sam Hauser^ 10	Marquette	5.32
403	Kamar Baldwin^ 3	Butler	5.24
406	Avery Woodson^ 0	Butler	5.22
422	Jessie Govan^ 15	Georgetown	5.12
428	Markus Howard^ 0	Marquette	5.1
431	Tre'Darius McCallum^ 10	DePaul	5.09
441	Marcus Foster^ 0	Creighton	5.05
490	Haanif Cheatham^ 25	Marquette	4.79
492	RaShid Gaston^ 35	Xavier	4.77

First Big East win to get ready for the new year!

Podcast has been on a break for the holidays, somewhat unplanned but after the first big win of the Big East system, we're back to talk about Marquette basketball. We jump right in and talk about the victory over Georgetown this past Wednesday. As part of that discussion we highlight the outstanding performance of Markus Howard who, you may have heard, is only 17. We also chat about how the coaching staff seems to be finally getting the players into the roles they desire them so that the whole is greater than the parts. We also have to talk about JaJuan Johnson's post-game "observations" of Georgetown's defensive intensity and while we're having fun we talk about Wojo's interview of Markus Howard, which gave us a look into "fun" Wojo which we haven't really seen before (http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/marquette/2016/12/29/wojciechowski-has-fun-howard-after-win/95948696/). As we transition to the upcoming games, we talk about whether Seton Hall is the same match up this year as last year. Additionally, going to Philadelphia and taking on the number 1 team in the country is going to be a tall ask for anyone. We break down what has to happen in each game for Marquette to give themselves a chance to win. Bottom line, this next week is going to be very tough for Marquette but if they can win at least one of them that leaves them on schedule to a top 5 Big East finish. It's going to be an interesting week for Marquette, let's see how this plays out together. Download this episode (right click and save)

53% Chance at Bid; Updated Top 50; JJJ Closing on MVP

A year ago I wrote that Marquette needed 23 wins to make the NCAA tournament and had a 3.2% chance of making the tournament. I will not recreate the math here, but using the same combination of RPI Forecast, MU needs only 20 total wins this year (season and/or Big East tournament) and has a 54 percent chance at a bid.

I ran an extremely detailed effort today to review all player changes and other factors, and rank MU as having the 43rd best chance at making the tournament (see top 50 here).

The two impact performances vs. Georgetown resulted in Marquette becoming on of only eight teams with five players in the top 10% of all players, and JuJuan Johnson (worth 6.50 points per game) almost taking over first place from Luke Fischer (6.57).

Nat'l Rnk	Top 10% of all players	Pt Value
225	Luke Fischer #40	6.57
230	JaJuan Johnson #23	6.50
384	Haanif Cheatham #25	5.43
396	Sam Hauser #10	5.36
411	Markus Howard #0	5.25

There are now 4,123 players rated in www.valueaddbasketball.com, leaving Howard just in the top 10 percent - and keep in mind players get a ZERO when they miss a game.

The only other teams with that balance are Arizona, Clemson, Duke, Louisville, UNC, Purdue and SMU.

A 50% better chance of making the tournament than last year is a nice Christmas Present.

Georgetown's two All-Big East Players Next Up; MU one of Few Teams with 4 in Top 10%

The Georgetown Hoyas will be the first to visit after Christmas, and they bring two of the top six Big East players in Rodney Pryor and LJ Peak.

Marquette counters with balance. Markus Howard might be be in the top 10% of all Value Add players (top 400) if not for the concussion, and even without him Marquette is one of only 22 teams with four players in the top 10 percent at www.valueaddbasketball.com. MU joins fellow Big East teams Butler, Seton Hall and Villanova as well as the ACC's Clemson, Duke and North Carolina; the American's Cincinnati and SMU; the Big Ten's Indiana, Michigan, Purdue and Wisconsin; the Big 12s Baylor and Texas Tech; the MVC's Wichita St.; the Pac 12s Oregon, UCLA and USC; the SEC's Kentucky and South Carolina; and finally the WCC's Gonzaga.

While we will need to clean up the headers, Value Add also now indicates when an injured player will return (Gone if left team, Sea if out for season, or the month they will return) and how many games they have played. Remember that any time a player misses a game his Value Add ranking for that game is 0.0, so Bradley Hayes for Georgetown has a Value Add ranking of 1.50, but when you notice he has played only 8 games while his teammates have played 12, you realize he would be worth about 50% more (2.25 Value Add) if he has not had to sit out the first four games.

Rnk	Player	VA4D	Team	Pos/Inj	Ht	Class
1	Josh Hart, No.3	16.2	Villanova	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 5"	Sr
17	JP Macura, No.55	10.9	Xavier	PG*1.2*12Gms	6' 5"	Jr
28	Rodney Pryor, No.23	10.3	Georgetown	C*1*12Gms	6' 5"	Sr
31	Mikal Bridges, No.25	10.2	Villanova	SF*1*12Gms	6' 7"	So
43	Trevon Bluiett, No.5	9.7	Xavier	SF*1*12Gms	6' 6"	Jr
44	LJ Peak, No.0	9.7	Georgetown	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 5"	Jr
65	Khyri Thomas, No.2	8.9	Creighton	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 3"	So
69	Shamorie Ponds, No.2	8.8	St. John's	SG*1.1*13Gms	6' 1"	Fr
73	Andrew Chrabascz, No.45	8.8	Butler	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 7"	Sr
92	Jalen Brunson, No.1	8.3	Villanova	PG*1.2*12Gms	6' 2"	So
95	Emmitt Holt, No.15	8.2	Providence	SG*1.1*11Gms	6' 7"	Jr
101	Edmond Sumner, No.4	8.1	Xavier	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 6"	So
115	Tyler Lewis, No.1	7.9	Butler	PG*1.2*12Gms	5' 11"	Sr
124	Justin Patton, No.23	7.7	Creighton	C*1*12Gms	7' 0	Fr
152	Jalen Lindsey, No.21	7.3	Providence	C*1*12Gms	6' 7"	Jr
171	Khadeen Carrington, No.0	7.1	Seton Hall	SG*1.1*11Gms	6' 4"	Jr
191	Rodney Bullock, No.5	6.8	Providence	SF*1*12Gms	6' 8"	Jr
223	Kris Jenkins, No.2	6.6	Villanova	PF*1*12Gms	6' 6"	Sr
237	Luke Fischer, No.40	6.4	Marquette	C*1*12Gms	6' 11"	Sr
263	Angel Delgado, No.31	6.2	Seton Hall	C*1*11Gms	6' 10"	Jr
274	Kelan Martin, No.30	6.2	Butler	PF*1*12Gms	6' 7"	Jr
287	Haanif Cheatham, No.25	6.1	Marquette	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 5"	So
298	Jessie Govan, No.15	6	Georgetown	PF*1*12Gms	6' 10"	So
302	JaJuan Johnson, No.23	6	Marquette	SF*1*12Gms	6' 5"	Sr
354	Myles Powell, No.13	5.7	Seton Hall	SG*1.1*11Gms	6' 2"	Fr
359	Desi Rodriguez, No.20	5.6	Seton Hall	SF*1*11Gms	6' 6"	Jr
381	Tyler Wideman, No.4	5.5	Butler	C*1*12Gms	6' 8"	Jr
382	Maurice Watson, No.10	5.5	Creighton	PG*1.2*12Gms	5' 10"	Sr
392	Sam Hauser, No.10	5.4	Marquette	PF*1*12Gms	6' 6"	Fr
415	Marcus Foster, No.0	5.3	Creighton	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 3"	Jr
479	Eli Cain, No.11	4.9	DePaul	SF*1*12Gms	6' 6"	So
482	Kamar Baldwin, No.3	4.9	Butler	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 0	Fr
527	Darryl Reynolds, No.45	4.6	Villanova	C*1*12Gms	6' 9"	Sr
528	RaShid Gaston, No.35	4.6	Xavier	C*1*12Gms	6' 9"	Sr
609	Markus Howard, No.0	4.2	Marquette	PG*1.2*11Gms	5' 11"	Fr
616	Avery Woodson, No.0	4.2	Butler	PG*1.2*12Gms	6' 2"	Sr
621	Donte DiVincenzo, No.10	4.2	Villanova	SF*1*12Gms	6' 5"	So
672	Kyron Cartwright, No.24	4	Providence	PG*1.2*12Gms	5' 11"	Jr
733	Marcus LoVett, No.15	3.7	St. John's	PG*1.2*10Gms	6' 0	Fr
742	Tre'Darius McCallum, No.10	3.7	DePaul	PF*1*12Gms	6' 7"	Jr
780	Toby Hegner, No.32	3.5	Creighton	C*1*12Gms	6' 10"	Jr
817	Nate Fowler, No.51	3.4	Butler	PF*1*12Gms	6' 10"	So
846	Tariq Owens, No.11	3.3	St. John's	C*1*13Gms	6' 11"	So
847	Madison Jones, No.30	3.3	Seton Hall	PG*1.2*11Gms	6' 2"	Sr
894	Cole Huff, No.13	3.1	Creighton	SF*1*12Gms	6' 8"	Sr
946	Andrew Rowsey, No.30	3	Marquette	PG*1.2*12Gms	5' 10"	Jr
969	Eric Paschall, No.4	2.9	Villanova	C*1*12Gms	6' 7"	So
1034	Michael Nzei, No.1	2.7	Seton Hall	C*1*11Gms	6' 8"	So
1037	Ryan Fazekas, No.35	2.7	Providence	PF*1*12Gms	6' 8"	So
1132	Sean O'Mara, No.54	2.5	Xavier	C*1*12Gms	6' 10"	Jr
1183	Duane Wilson, No.1	2.3	Marquette	SG*1.1*12Gms	6' 2"	Jr

Holidays are upon us, let's hope Marquette can unwrap a new defense

Welcome back to the Scrambled Eggs podcast, holiday edition. It's a holiday edition in that we mention Christmas at some point. Other than that the focus is on Marquette basketball: So what happened. First we talk about the most recent news, Traci Carter deciding to leave the program at semester end. Given our proclivity to overreact in the past, this is a somewhat measured discussion about the impact of Traci leaving and how Marquette basketball moves forward from here. It also generates a discussion about roster turnover and what Wojo may do with 3 more open scholarships for next year (Wally, Sandy and Traci scholarships). We then turn to the terrible result at the end of #BadgerHateWeek with a convincing drubbing of Marquette by the hated red menace. We talk about what happened in the game, what it means for the season as a whole, and most critically what the hell is up with the defense. We have a detailed discussion about Marquette's defense and how they move forward into the Big East with a boat we can row really fast(offense) but is leaking like a sieve(defense). We close out with thoughts on the Big East and what challenges face Marquette come December 28th. As always we hope you enjoy the pod and hope everyone enjoys the holidays with their loved ones and Marquette basketball. Download this episode (right click and save)

3 Freshman in American have hit 20+ 3-pointers at 50% clip, and 2 of them are ...

Marquette is one of 14 teams with more than one freshman in the top 20% of all players according to Value Add Basketball. Kentucky has four, while Arizona, Auburn, Florida State, Maryland and Miami FL have three.

Sam Hauser (600th of 4000+) and Markus Howard (682nd and skyrocketing) let MU join UCLA, Michigan State, Virginia, Appalachian State, St. John's Penn State and Drexel with two elite freshman.

During Saturday's loss to Wisconsin, Sam Hauser was finally stopped, but the other incredible freshman three-point shooter was incredible again.

When it comes to hitting threes, Marquette's freshman lap the field. There are only three freshman in the country who have hit at least 20 three-pointers at a 50% clip - MUs two stars and Hofstra's Eli Pemberton.

Josh Hart is the top ranked player in any of the Power 6 Conferences in both Value Add and www.kenpom.com at this point.

Here are the top 10 freshman three-point shooters among those who have hit at least 20 this season.

Freshman with 20+ 3PM	3PM-3PA	Pct
Eli Pemberton, No.5, Hofstra	21-41	51.2%
Sam Hauser, No.10, Marquette	23-45	51.1%
Markus Howard, No.0, Marquette	21-42	50.0%
Kari Jonsson, No.12, Drexel	22-46	47.8%
Lauri Markkanen, No.10, Arizona	21-44	47.7%
Isaiah Ross, No.2, UMKC	20-43	46.5%
Lonzo Ball, No.2, UCLA	24-53	45.3%
Marcus LoVett, No.15, St. John's	20-45	44.4%
Shamorie Ponds, No.2, St. John's	31-70	44.3%
Myles Powell, No.13, Seton Hall	22-53	41.5%

The team delivered important wins, now we can focus on #BadgerHateWeek

The most hateful time of year is here and we're excited to talk about it. However, first we have to talk about the two wins Marquette got this week, on the road against Georgia and at home against a frisky Fresno State. We talk about the team's performance in both games, especially the freshman, Sam Hauser and Markus Howard. After spending time breaking down critical performances and concerns over Haanif Cheatham's slump, we jump into #BadgerHateWeek The discussion covers the ins and outs of Saturday's game against our hated rival, including keys to the games, player match ups, and predictions. We have a lot of fun hating on the red menace, we hope you enjoy it with us. Ring Out Ahoya! Download this episode (right click and save)

Current Forecast: Play-in Game in Dayton then Wisconsin in NCAA 1st Round

As Marquette gets ready for the Wisconsin Badgers, and interesting forecast played out on the RPI Forecast site. If bids were passed out exclusively by the projected final RPI for each school, with automatic bids accounted for, Marquette would be the third from final at-large bid.

The last four in play in Dayton in the opening week, and under this scenario if every favored team kept winning except for Marquette, the following would be Marquette's path:

Dayton: (12) Wake Forest vs. (12) Marquette

1st Round: Marquette vs. (5) Wisconsin again (the third best 5-seed on the s-curve)

2nd Round: Marquette vs. (4) Saint Mary's

Regional Semi: Marquette vs. (1) Kansas

Regional Championship: Marquette vs. (2) Baylor

Final Four: Marquette vs. (1) North Carolina

National Championship: Marquette vs. (overall No. 1) Villanova

The other Big East teams would be:

Butler (last 3-seed)
Xavier (1st 4-seed)
Creighton (last 5-seed)

With Marquette as the 5th and Final Big East Seed:

Providence (first 2-seed in NIT)

Seton Hall (top 4-seed in NIT)

And Georgetown missing the NIT by three spots though it would be more due to automatic bids for regular season winners that did not win their tournaments.

Obviously this projection could go way up or down based on Saturday against the Badgers.

All filled up on cupcakes, now things get intersting

We're back with a new podcast after we've all fattened up on cupcakes. We spend some time talking about the three games that MU most recently played to decide if there is anything we can gleam from the performance of the team after the sub-optimal performance in NYC. Then, we get into a few impromptu #ScrambledQs starting with a discussion of the starting line-up. That discussion turns to the hot #mubb social media question, what's up with Katin Reinhardt and is he salvageable. We also spend some more time talking about the point guard situation and how fluid it continues to be. That conversation leads to the topic of significance, the road game against Georgia, breaking down how Marquette could win and whether we think they will. We also talk about how important the Georgia game in the context of the season as prompted by Paint Touches. We also talk a little bit about the trap game, Fresno State, and what to be concerned about. We close out with a couple of fun #ScrambledQs: @MUBBNation wanted to know which one of us had the better jumper and @PaintTouches wants to know if we still hate Buzz and/or Crean and if so why? Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Georgia's Maten (6th best), Nova's Hart (12th) toughest MU Opponents

For the first time in four years, Marquette has three players in the 90th percentile (top 400) most valuable players in the country with Luke Fischer (189th), Haanif Cheatham (261st) and JuJuan Johnson (313th). MU fans were spoiled when MU did it from 2006 to 2013, and in 2003 all five MU starters made it including No. 3 Dwyane Wade and No. 39 Travis Diener being in the 99th percentile, or top 1% of all players.

Below is a list of the top 50 players at Value Add Basketball that you will see if you watch the rest of Marquette's games. While Villanova's Josh Hart is making his case for Player of the Year as the 12th most valuable to date, MU faces an even more valuable opponent Sunday in 6-foot-8 Yante Maten of Georgia. Maten scored 30 points against Kansas and could not miss in the first half, and he is ranked among national leaders in blocked shots and rebounds and actually leads the Bulldogs in steals.

The "Actual Value" shows how many points per 100 trips the player is worth to his team per 100 offensive and defensive trips (Value Add 3.0), while the "If Go To" shows how many they would project to be worth if they received the ball at least 16% of the time (Value Add 4.0).

Below I list players by their actual value, but right now www.valueaddbasketball.com ranks by the projected value:

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Actual Val	If GoTo
6	Yante Maten, #1	Georgia	6'8"	13.34	13.34
12	Josh Hart, #3	Villanova	6'5"	12.55	13.80
19	Rodney Pryor, #23	Georgetown	6'5"	12.13	12.13
29	Rodney Bullock, #5	Providence	6'8"	11.71	11.71
37	Ethan Happ, #22	Wisconsin	6'10"	11.17	11.17
40	JP Macura, #55	Xavier	6'5"	10.98	13.18
45	Mikal Bridges, #25	Villanova	6'7"	10.75	13.95
51	Eli Cain, #11	DePaul	6'6"	10.60	10.60
83	Khadeen Carrington, #0	Seton Hall	6'4"	9.65	10.62
90	Keenan Simmons, #45	SIU Edwardsville	6'6"	9.57	15.79
121	Khyri Thomas, #2	Creighton	6'3"	8.91	11.92
140	Jahmel Taylor, #5	Fresno St.	6'0	8.55	13.27
153	Josh Nebo, #32	St. Francis PA	6'8"	8.32	9.34
181	LJ Peak, #0	Georgetown	6'5"	7.97	8.77
189	Luke Fischer, #40	Marquette	6'11"	7.84	10.02
193	Shamorie Ponds, #2	St. John's	6'1"	7.78	8.56
215	Kris Jenkins, #2	Villanova	6'6"	7.57	7.57
220	Trevon Bluiett, #5	Xavier	6'6"	7.54	7.54
227	JJ Frazier, #30	Georgia	5'10"	7.42	8.90
246	Andrew Chrabascz, #45	Butler	6'7"	7.23	9.06
261	Haanif Cheatham, #25	Marquette	6'5"	7.11	8.33
275	Justin Patton, #23	Creighton	7'0	7.04	10.06
277	Edmond Sumner, #4	Xavier	6'6"	7.03	7.73
289	Cullen Russo, #13	Fresno St.	6'9"	6.95	8.17
298	Keith Braxton, #13	St. Francis PA	6'4"	6.87	6.87
305	Bronson Koenig, #24	Wisconsin	6'3"	6.81	7.49
313	JaJuan Johnson, #23	Marquette	6'5"	6.77	6.82
316	Marcus LoVett, #15	St. John's	6'0	6.75	8.09
324	Nigel Hayes, #10	Wisconsin	6'8"	6.70	6.70
376	Kamar Baldwin, #3	Butler	6'0	6.37	10.32
392	Emmitt Holt, #15	Providence	6'7"	6.25	6.88
407	Tre'Darius McCallum, #10	DePaul	6'7"	6.14	6.66
433	Jalen Brunson, #1	Villanova	6'2"	6.00	7.20
434	Myles Powell, #13	Seton Hall	6'2"	6.00	7.81
486	Tyler Lewis, #1	Butler	5'11"	5.71	9.55
535	Desi Rodriguez, #20	Seton Hall	6'6"	5.45	5.45
603	Jalen Lindsey, #21	Providence	6'7"	5.13	8.31
612	Avery Woodson, #0	Butler	6'2"	5.06	9.30
613	Donte DiVincenzo, #10	Villanova	6'5"	5.06	7.78
633	Marcus Foster, #0	Creighton	6'3"	4.93	5.43
652	Tyler Wideman, #4	Butler	6'8"	4.84	7.23
659	Sean O'Mara, #54	Xavier	6'10"	4.81	8.13
660	Darrick Wood, #1	DePaul	6'5"	4.80	8.55
680	Zak Showalter, #3	Wisconsin	6'3"	4.72	9.04
716	Darryl Reynolds, #45	Villanova	6'9"	4.52	7.71
757	Sam Hauser, #10	Marquette	6'7"	4.33	7.81
762	Kelan Martin, #30	Butler	6'7"	4.32	4.32
792	Angel Delgado, #31	Seton Hall	6'10"	4.19	4.19
810	Maurice Watson, #10	Creighton	5'10"	4.12	4.94
826	Michael Nzei, #1	Seton Hall	6'8"	4.05	7.04

Value Add Rankings, Projected NCAA Bids and Impact Players Returning in December

Value Add ranks UNC No. 1, while remaining more skeptical of the AP No. 1 Kentucky. A UNC-Nova (#3) rematch for the national title is possible, but the Value Add dark horse is Utah. The Utes would rank 16th based on their players' Value Add to date, but Value Add projects that big man transfer David Collette in the coming weeks makes them the fifth best team in the country.

On the downside, Virginia's 50.77 is actually No. 1, but that includes 1.9 from Memphis transfer Austin Nichols, who has been kicked off the team. After subtracting out his value UVa falls three spots to No. 4 at 48.87.

ValueAddBasketball.com calculates Marquette with just enough talent to sneak into the last NCAA tournament spot, giving the Big East six teams. That ranks behind only the ACC (12), Big 12 (8) and Big Ten (7), and with a better ratio than the Big Ten. Value Add gives the Pac 12 five teams, but for some reason is particularly unkind to the SEC while giving only Kentucky and Florida a bid. However, a half dozen SEC teams are in the top 66, so that number could grow. The A10, American Athletic and West Coast Conference all have three bids. The other 23 conferences only get one bid.

Marquette will face Fresno State while Value Add calculates they have the 189th best team in the country. The week after that game Karachi Edo will take final exams to try to become eligible at which point Value Add calculates his impact (+5.0 Value Add) moves them up 89 spots to make them the 100th best team. Last year he went 7 of 9 shooting to keep close to Utah in the NCAA.

Here is the ranking of teams that either project to make the tournament, be in the last four out, or to have a player returning in the next few weeks (mid-season transfers or early season injuries) to give a significant Value Add boost in the second number - or in the case of UVa and UConn a big loss.

Rnk	Team	Con	Bid?	Value Add	Trans/Inj	Key Transfers/Injuries changing 2nd number
1	North Carolina	ACC	auto	49.98	49.98	We don't project return value for long-term injuries like Theo Pinson - the players listed below should be back within a couple of weeks.
2	Duke	ACC	bid	49.43	49.43
3	Villanova	BE	auto	48.87	48.87
4	Virginia	ACC	bid	50.77	48.87	Austin Nichols -1.9 Memphis transfer dismissed after strong opener.
5	Utah	P12	auto	40.51	48.51	David Collette +8.0 Value Add's 18th best freshman in 2015 before Utah St. tried for months to block his transfer to Utah, where ex-NBA center Larry Krystkowiak could make him another NBA center.
6	Gonzaga	WCC	auto	47.07	47.07
7	Kansas	B12	auto	46.70	46.70
8	Wichita St.	MVC	auto	46.60	46.60
9	Syracuse	ACC	bid	46.58	46.58
10	Kentucky	SEC	auto	46.57	46.57	AP No. 1
11	Wisconsin	B10	auto	45.28	45.28
12	Louisville	ACC	bid	43.05	43.05
13	Purdue	B10	bid	42.54	42.54
14	Indiana	B10	bid	42.07	42.07
15	Miami FL	ACC	bid	41.86	41.86
16	Clemson	ACC	bid	39.47	41.47	Elijah Thomas +2.0 former top 50 prospect transferred from Texas A&M to play in December.
17	Butler	BE	bid	41.37	41.37
18	Michigan	B10	bid	40.87	40.87
19	Saint Mary's	WCC	bid	40.71	40.71
20	Iowa St.	B12	bid	40.70	40.70
21	Arizona	P12	bid	40.19	40.19	AP No. 8
22	Florida	SEC	bid	40.02	40.02
23	BYU	WCC	bid	39.84	39.84
24	West Virginia	B12	bid	39.44	39.44
25	Xavier	BE	bid	39.20	39.20
26	Oklahoma	B12	bid	38.00	39.00	Dante Buford +1.0 coming off suspension after some action as a freshman.
27	Baylor	B12	bid	38.99	38.99
28	Cincinnati	Amer	auto	38.95	38.95
29	East Tennessee St.	SC	auto	38.81	38.81
30	VCU	A10	auto	38.78	38.78
31	UCLA	P12	bid	38.77	38.77
32	Seton Hall	BE	bid	38.34	38.34
33	Colorado	P12	bid	38.07	38.07
34	Ohio St.	B10	bid	37.99	37.99
35	Creighton	BE	bid	37.74	37.74
36	Texas Tech	B12	bid	37.71	37.71
37	Notre Dame	ACC	bid	37.66	37.66
38	Michigan St.	B10	bid	37.48	37.48
39	Rhode Island	A10	bid	37.34	37.34
40	Virginia Tech	ACC	bid	37.23	37.23
41	Kansas St.	B12	bid	36.91	36.91
42	Florida St.	ACC	bid	36.52	36.52
43	TCU	B12	bid	32.37	36.37	Alex Robinson +4.0 a number of double digit outings at Texas A&M before transfer, enough to take them from 67th to 43rd and make the tournament.
44	Princeton	Ivy	auto	36.31	36.31
45	Wake Forest	ACC	bid	36.08	36.08
46	Houston	Amer	bid	35.98	35.98
47	Dayton	A10	bid	35.79	35.79
48	Marquette	BE	bid	35.21	35.21	Yes the last bid, and no I did not fudge - just ran the numbers.
49	SMU	Amer	last4	35.10	35.10
50	Minnesota	B10	last4	34.97	34.97
51	North Carolina St.	ACC	last4	34.96	34.96
52	California	P12	last4	34.69	34.69
54	UNC Wilmington	CAA	auto	32.66	34.16	Names in italics below would make the tournament by winning their conference Ambrose Mosley +2.5 at UNCW for senior year after being leading 3-point shooter for 27-8 ODU team.
57	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	auto	26.33	33.83	Khalil Ahmad +7.0 conference freshman of the year missing semester for academics, Riley Dearring +1 hit a couple of shots for Wisconsin's tourney team two years ago.
60	St. Bonaventure	A10	gain	32.48	33.48	Nelson Kaputo +1.0 some action as freshman and needs to pass exams to return Dec 17.
70	Ohio	MAC	auto	32.09	32.09
72	San Diego St.	MWC	auto	31.36	31.36
78	Incarnate Word	Slnd	inelig	30.57	30.57	new D1 not eligible yet, but otherwise could make tournament at-large or as conf champ
80	North Dakota St.	Sum	auto	29.94	29.94
83	Valparaiso	Horz	auto	29.63	29.63
84	Charlotte	CUSA	auto	28.09	29.59	Austin Ajukwa +1.5 two seasons at Clemson and should contribute at Charlotte.
89	Georgia Tech	ACC	gain	27.85	29.05	Josh Heath +1.2 takes the court against Tulane Saturday after 4-game suspension.
91	Belmont	OVC	auto	28.84	28.84
100	Fresno St.	MWC	gain	23.21	28.21	Karachi Edo +5.0 capped 3 strong first years with 7 of 9 shooting to keep close to Utah in the NCAA, but must pass exams in mid-December.
103	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	auto	28.06	28.06
107	Missouri	SEC	gain	25.84	27.84	Jordan Barnett +2.0 returns to Missouri from Texas - former top 100 recruit.
110	Winthrop	BSth	auto	27.66	27.66
113	Vermont	AE	auto	27.35	27.35
116	UT Arlington	SB	auto	27.20	27.20
117	Siena	MAAC	auto	27.18	27.18
118	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	auto	27.10	27.10
126	Texas Southern	SWAC	auto	22.74	26.24	Tevon Saddler +3.5 led UNCG in scoring and assists before transfer.
128	Boston University	Pat	auto	26.16	26.16
158	New Mexico St.	WAC	auto	24.36	24.36
159	Montana	BSky	auto	24.36	24.36
167	Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	gain	23.64	24.04	Following teams have significant player changes to their current Value Add Fallou Ndoye +0.4 played in 30 games as a freshman at Mississippi St. then six more last year before transfer.
184	DePaul	BE	gain	22.42	23.42	Austin Grandstaff +0.2 hit some 3-pointers for Ohio State.
191	Western Kentucky	CUSA	gain	21.50	23.00	Jabari McGhee +1.5 hit 62% of his shots (23-37) at Tennessee.
192	Connecticut	Amer	lost	27.46	22.96	Terry Larrier -4.5 off to a great start but season ending knee injury crushing for Uconn.
199	Wagner	NEC	auto	22.46	22.46
224	Kent St.	MAC	gain	19.08	21.08	Taishaun Johnson +2.0 after averaging 12.5 points as a freshman at South Alabama, a nice addition.
235	Norfolk St.	MEAC	auto	20.34	20.34
236	Tennessee Tech	OVC	gain	19.80	20.30	Curtis Phillips +0.5 eight points a game at Campbell.
239	South Florida	Amer	gain	14.63	20.13	Jahmal McMurray +4.5 all-freshman team hopes to return from suspension, Isaiah Manderson 1.0 Texas Tech transfer 4.4 ppg as freshman.
257	Alabama St.	SWAC	gain	15.95	18.95	Demetrius Houston +3.0 returns home to Montgomery after showing promise his freshman year at Mississippi St.
263	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	gain	15.42	18.42	Justin Massey +3.0 solid player at Florida Atlantic as a freshman, then transferred to Brown for 9 games before coming back.
280	Pepperdine	WCC	gain	16.85	17.85	Kameron Edwards +1.0 after scoring 7 points/gm as a freshman he will return from a jaw injury.
294	Howard	MEAC	gain	13.15	17.15	James Daniel +4.0 quest for 2000 points resumes after early season ankle injury.

JJJ 1st Team All-Big East Defense; Cheatham & Fischer 3rd Team All-Big East

Haanif Cheatham and Luke Fischer earn All-Big East 3rd Team Honors in the early going, based on Value Add Calculations. Cheatham improves MU by 6.94 points per 100 offensive trips, and takes 1.21 points off the opponents scoreboard during those trips for a total Version 3 Value Add of 6.94 points.

Version 4.0 (introduced this week) calculates that the average shooting guard is averaging almost 10% less value than other players, so between that adjustment and the calculation of how much value Cheatham could have with 16% of MU's possessions instead of his current 14%, Cheatham calculates to a  potential overall value of 9.48 if MU can get him the ball more.

Only three sophomores (Bridges, Thomas and Cain) and one freshman (LoVett) are more valuable than Cheatham.

Luke Fischer is just behind Cheatham at 9.38 and could definitely use more than 12% of all possessions as he hits over 70 percent of his shots. Both are in the 94th percentile of all players at 265th and 271st nationally of over 4000 players that can be pulled up at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

JuJuan Johnson's -2.76 defensive rating is the fourth best in the Big East, meaning he takes away three points per 100 trips away from opponents over a replacement player. Duane Wilson and Sam Hauser have been very valuable while having the ball 8 percent of the time for MU, indicating  they would both join Johnson as very valuable if they were given the ball a lot more often (16% instead of their current 8%).

These rankings are based on how valuable players would be if given the opportunity to be a major contributor for their team, so players like Baldwin and O'Mara have not truly been worth enough points to make the first two teams, but in theory are playing at that level while on the court and getting the ball.

Nat'l	1st Team All-Big East	Team	Value4.0	V3.0	Poss	Off	Def
23	JP Macura #55	Xavier	14.71	12.25	19%	11.42	-0.83
24	Mikal Bridges #25	Villanova	14.67	11.19	12%	9.14	-2.04
55	Josh Hart #3	Villanova	12.95	11.78	20%	9.41	-2.36
56	Kamar Baldwin #3	Butler	12.95	7.42	9%	3.86	-3.56
95	Khyri Thomas #2	Creighton	11.88	8.15	12%	7.05	-1.1
Nat'l	2nd Team All-Big East	Team	Value4.0	V3.0	Poss	Off	Def
111	Rodney Pryor #23	Georgetown	11.57	11.57	17%	9.69	-1.88
175	LJ Peak #0	Georgetown	10.64	9.67	20%	8.36	-1.31
198	Eli Cain #11	DePaul	10.32	10.32	21%	10.77	0.44
219	Marcus LoVett #15	St. John's	10.02	8.35	24%	8.41	0.06
235	Sean O'Mara #54	Xavier	9.79	5.66	8%	5.08	-0.58
Nat'l	3rd Team All-Big East	Team	Value4.0	V3.0	Poss	Off	Def
243	Tyler Lewis #1	Butler	9.7	5.03	9%	4.99	-0.05
265	Haanif Cheatham #25	Marquette	9.48	8.15	14%	6.94	-1.21
270	Khadeen Carrington #0	Seton Hall	9.39	8.53	19%	8.24	-0.29
271	Luke Fischer #40	Marquette	9.38	7.14	12%	6.13	-1.02
283	Darrick Wood #1	DePaul	9.26	4.82	8%	5.77	0.95
Nat'l	Other High MU Players	Team	Value4.0	V3.0	Poss	Off	Def
499	Duane Wilson #1	Marquette	7.64	4.2	8%	3.36	-0.84
666	JaJuan Johnson #23	Marquette	6.67	6.44	15%	3.68	-2.76
669	Sam Hauser #10	Marquette	6.65	3.87	8%	3.17	-0.7

A piece in Breitbart Sports indicated former MU recruit

Marial Shayok was one of the top 10 Value Add players through Saturday, but he has dropped to 84th as of Thanksgiving.

Maybe we got a little ahead of ourselves

Well, the tone of this podcast has changed rapidly, much like Marquette's performance on the court. No sugar coating it, we got a little over our skis after the first two games of the season with Michigan and Pitt bringing us all back to Earth. We spend time talking about the 2K Classic results and what it means for Marquette. We try to breakdown what went wrong and how it might be corrected. We also have a discussion around the coaching staff and whether or not there is reason to be concerned early in year 3 of the Wojo era. After finishing our moping about the NYC results we turn to some surprising news in the transfer of Sandy Cohen. We discuss what the news means, and how it may have come to this. Then, wrapping up the Eeyore episode of Scrambled Eggs, we look ahead to the rest of the non-conference schedule and look at how it may play out with the new, less rose colored viewpoint. Download this episode (right click and save)

Value Add 4.0 Process and Rankings; High Ranking MU Trio

One year ago Value Add 3.0 provided the most precise value of all 4000 players in D1 basketball, and now Value Add 4.0 finally provides a measurement of how valuable each player would be if they were a Major Contributor for their team. This answers the lingering criticism of how we measure the value of a superstar stuck down the bench at Kentucky.

First we will reveal the top few players, the players from Major Conferences in the Top 1% of all players (top 40), the Big East players in the top 5% of all players (top 200) and the Marquette trio in the top 15% of all players, then we will cover the new math. While we are just updating the tables, you can find the ranking for all 3,898 players by clicking on www.valueaddbasketball.com.

No. 13 on the early list is a painful one for MU, as Brewtown Andy wrote two years ago.
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Rnk	Player	Team	v4.0 if Major	Conf	v3.0 Pts/G	%usage	Pos	GoTo Adj
1	Jacob Van #15	Air Force	16.48	MWC	13.73	16%	PG*1.2	1.00
2	Jeremy Morgan #20	Northern Iowa	16.19	MVC	16.19	21%	PF*1	1.00
3	David DiLeo #14	Central Michigan	15.84	MAC	14.14	14%	PF*1	1.12
4	Marquis Wright #1	Siena	12.30	MAAC	10.25	26%	PG*1.2	1.00
5	Brandon Parrish #11	TCU	12.17	B12	7.02	8%	PF*1	1.73
8	Markelle Fultz #20	Washington	12.03	P12	10.03	31%	PG*1.2	1.00
12	Charles Cooke #4	Dayton	11.02	A10	11.02	23%	PF*1	1.00
13	Marial Shayok #4	Virginia	10.93	ACC	6.72	10%	SG*1.1	1.48
17	Devin Davis #15	Houston	10.73	Amer	10.73	16%	C*1	1.00
19	Josh Hart #3	Villanova	10.51	BE	9.55	20%	SG*1.1	1.00
20	DJ Johnson #4	Kansas St.	10.42	B12	7.36	11%	C*1	1.42
22	Devin Robinson #1	Florida	10.41	SEC	8.14	12%	SF*1	1.28
24	Malcolm Hill #21	Illinois	10.36	B10	10.36	25%	SF*1	1.00
29	ShawnDre' Jones #3	Richmond	9.97	A10	8.31	29%	PG*1.2	1.00
31	Tyus Battle #25	Syracuse	9.86	ACC	5.15	8%	SG*1.1	1.74
32	Mikal Bridges #25	Villanova	9.76	BE	7.56	12%	SF*1	1.29
33	Joel Berry #2	North Carolina	9.76	ACC	7.96	15%	PG*1.2	1.02
35	Anton Beard #31	Arkansas	9.70	SEC	5.13	9%	PG*1.2	1.58
36	Manu Lecomte #20	Baylor	9.61	B12	8.01	19%	PG*1.2	1.00
63	Khyri Thomas #2	Creighton	8.81	BE	6.01	12%	SG*1.1	1.33
68	Kamar Baldwin #3	Butler	8.68	BE	5.16	10%	SG*1.1	1.53
107	Darryl Reynolds #45	Villanova	7.55	BE	4.02	6%	C*1	1.88
120	Shamorie Ponds #2	St. John's	7.30	BE	6.41	15%	SG*1.1	1.03
171	JP Macura #55	Xavier	6.63	BE	5.53	21%	PG*1.2	1.00
182	Justin Patton #23	Creighton	6.49	BE	4.24	10%	C*1	1.53
190	Jalen Brunson #1	Villanova	6.41	BE	5.35	15%	PG*1.2	1.00
222	Luke Fischer #40	Marquette	6.09	BE	4.68	12%	C*1	1.30
371	Haanif Cheatham #25	Marquette	5.00	BE	4.23	14%	SG*1.1	1.08
544	JaJuan Johnson #23	Marquette	3.95	BE	3.95	16%	SF*1	1.00

Based on Value Add 3.0 we know that Luke Fischer improves Marquette's points per 100 trips by 4.68 (almost all on offense right now). He is worth an outstanding 130 points per 100 trips down the court. However, Fischer is only getting 12% of Marquette's overall possessions (on the court for 68% of minutes multiplied by 18% of possessions when on the court equals 12%). Based on Dean Oliver's charts in "Basketball on Paper," we can estimate that Fischer would could impact Marquette's scores by 1.3 times as many points (far right factor) if he could get the ball a solid 16% of all possessions in a game, which calculates to a potential Value of 6.09 points - the 222nd best rating in all of basketball.

We do also monitor the average performance by possession each season. While we list the five traditional positions (Point Guard, Shooting Guard, Small Forward, Power Forward and Center) this position is calculated for each player based on four factors. First, a players assist rate is divided by his defensive rebound percentage, which gives an indication on if he plays more on the perimeter or underneath. The players height is also factored, and finally these factors are compared to all of his teammates so that each team has a pretty even distribution of minutes played at each of the five positions. If a team plays a four guard set, the player who spends the most time inside and/or is tallest is going to be considered a power forward for purposes of comparison to the other "No. 4" players on other teams.

So far this season the teams' three "forward/centers" are averaging about the same value over the 351 teams. Shooting guards rank almost 10% lower in the calculations than the front line players, and point guards rank almost 20% lower, so these players have their rankings further multiplied by 1.1 and 1.2 respectively to show how much they improve their team over a replacement player at the same possession.

The initial Value Add 3.0 Calculation is thus multiplied by the position factor and then the usage factor. If a player already has at least 16% of his team's possessions then he is considered to already be performing at his maximum level.
Therefore JuJuan Johnson's 3.95 ranking is not adjusted upward because he is already possession the ball 16% of the time Marquette has it (partly by coming up with his own steals). That is good enough for 544th in the country, placing him in the top 15% of all players.

Haanif Cheatham's 4.23 is increased slightly (*1.08) based on how much more he could contribute if he had the ball 16% of the time instead of 14%, but he also has that factor multiplied by 1.1 to account for his numbers being even more impressive as a shooting guard.

Now THAT was some fun basketball to watch!

The season is underway with a big opening season win against Vanderbilt and so we react (and in some cases overreact) to the results of the first game of the season. Does the starting line-up tell us anything? Is Sam Hauser for real? Will we ever lose again? All questions we ask ourselves and then answer. We also talk about whether this game gives any signal as to how Wojo has progressed as a coach. Once we soak up every ounce of enjoyment from the Vanderbilt result, we turn to the week ahead including the home opener against Howard, and match-ups against Michigan and Pitt/SMU in NYC. Even the resident podcast pessimist sees reason to believe a 4-0 start is possible. Then we get a little over our skis and mention the word ranking before finding sanity and closing out the podcast. Also, wish Joe (@joemccann3) a very happy birthday today! Enjoy the show. Download this episode (right click and save)

The season is nearly upon us, time to predict it

Marquette basketball is on the cusp of starting the 2016-17 so we're here to talk about it. First stop is to discuss and overreact to what we saw of the exhibition game against Rockhurst. As we talk about the game we also reference back to the "secret" scrimmage against Dayton from two weeks ago. We then talk about the first real game on the schedule, The Veteran's Classic at the US Naval Academy against Vanderbilt. We talk about what the game will look like and if we think Marquette prevails. With the first game prediction out of the way, we then prognosticate the entire season and compare it to the KenPom projections. While one of us is more optimistic than the other, we are both definitely on the positive side of the ledger for the season over all. To close out the projections and the episode we talk about who we think will be the MVP, Newcomer of the Year, and Breakout players this season. Let's get ready for some real basketball! Download this episode (right click and save)

Practice, we're talking about #mubb practice

The season is almost here and regular practice has started so we have an action packed podcast for you. There was a practice held for season ticket holders and Marquette Madness is kind of a practice so we breakdown what we saw at practice and how that projects to this season. As a natural transition, we move to the Tim Gunn portion of the podcast to discuss the sartorial choices by Nike and MU around the new Marquette jerseys. Once we complete our review of MU fashion we move to an early ramp up to #BadgerHateWeek around Duane v Nigel and the student-athlete value proposition. Wrapping up the podcast, we go through recruiting news of players missed and potential commits still out there*. Enjoy! *Since the pod was recorded French has committed to SLU, our breaking news track record is alive and well. Download this episode (right click and save)

Lots of big news from #mubb as summer turns to fall

Football is in full swing now, but there's been some news on the Marquette basketball front so we need to break in with some Scrambled Eggs podcast. We start the show with the most exciting news since the last pod, two new commitments in the form of Theo John and Jamal Cain. Welcome to the program gentlemen! Joining previous commit, Ike Eke, the three represent a significant bolstering of Marquette's frontline options. We discuss what their commitments mean and with theoretically only one roster spot left, who the remaining targets are Hint: they seem to be all big men. Based on the targets in 2017 we can speculate about what the roster looks like in 2017 and 2018 as well as some thoughts around 2018 targets. This all leads to a discussion around what Wojo's team strategy will be based on what we think the rosters will look like from a skill set standpoint. We then get to the Big East conference schedule which was released last week. While we don't go step by step through it, we do review key games or general impressions on what the schedule means including what MU has to do to make a tournament this season. We wrap up with an overview of the half century team that Big East Coast Bias put together based on voting. Oh and a new logo!

Download this episode (right click and save)