St. John's Preview

St. John's Red Storm
January 21, fiserv.forum; March 7, Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY
Coach: Mike Anderson (0-0 at St. John's, 369-200 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 103.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 87.0
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 93

Projected Starters: PG Rasheem Dunn (6'2" Jr), SG Mustapha Heron (6'5" Sr), SF L.J. Figueroa (6'6" Jr), PF David Caraher (6'6" So), C Josh Roberts (6'9" So)

St. John's started the year on a tear, though their 12-0 start was bolstered heavily by playing 10 sub-100 kenpom teams. From there, St. John's showed they could play with anyone, going 3-1 against Marquette and Villanova, the top teams in the Big East. They also showed anyone could play with them, as they went 1-5 against the three teams tied at the bottom of the league (Butler, Providence, DePaul). The Selection Committee rewarded their mediocrity with a NCAA bid as St. John's became the second-worst kenpom ranked team (81) to earn an at-large bid. They responded by taking a beating from Arizona State that wasn't as close as the final score indicated, fired head coach Chris Mullin, and watched five of their top seven players leave the program.

The good news for new head coach Mike Anderson is he has Heron and Figueroa back, both of whom scored 14+ ppg last year. The bad news is he has no other proven high major players. Dunn (St. Francis-NY) and Caraher (Houston Baptist) put up double-digit points, but did so for sub-300 teams. Ian Steere was denied an eligibility waiver, so little used Josh Roberts is likely the man in the middle. The bench features two returning players, none of whom played significant minutes, and a glut of transfers. It's hard to know what to expect from them, though it seems likely that it will take time for this bunch to fit together.

Chris Mullin's plan was to force turnovers and get points in transition, which goes in line with Mike Anderson's strategy. In his 17 years, Anderson's teams have been in the top-20 in defensive turnover percentage a staggering 12 times, which means his teams are usually in the 94th percentile or better forcing turnovers. This leads to lots of transition opportunities, where his teams are most efficient. When his teams do get into the halfcourt, they are still adequate and like to share the ball, focusing on fast passes and attacking. He doesn't call out many set plays, instead allowing his players to have freedom on the offensive end. Defensively, they start with heavy ball pressure and seek to funnel attackers into one monster shot blocker. Guys like Daniel Gafford, Moses Kingsley, and Hunter Mickelson have thrived under Anderson. As he builds his own roster, expect small, quick guards and forwards that aggressively attack the ballhandler and one monster under the hoop.

The general thought is that Anderson's first outing will be a rough one. I tend to agree, but in three prior stops, Anderson has had a winning record each time and averaged a 7-9 record in conference play. He has also showed a knack for finding immediate contributors. With two proven players they can rely on, I expect Anderson will surprise some people. His aggressive style will likely lead to some feast or famine nights, but I have no doubt they will feast at times. I expect them to be in the bottom three, but the Johnnies are better at head coach than they were a year ago and Heron and Figueroa are the type of players that will win some games. Don't overlook this team, but also don't be surprised if in his first year, they have a late-season swoon. Perhaps it's the high-pressure testing players endurance, but in Anderson's first years in the past, his teams are 1-9 against top-50 opposition in February and March. That's the good news. The bad news is that 1 was a victory over Marquette in the 2003 Conference-USA tournament. Of course, Marquette then went to the Final Four, so it wasn't all bad.

Marquette Memory: Buzz Williams' tenure at Marquette ended with a thud. After being picked to win the league in the inaugural "New" Big East, the 2014 team sputtered through the season but still had a chance to secure a bid with two games to play. First, they lost a 1-point decision in double-overtime at Providence. They returned home to take on the Red Storm in what would be Buzz's final game at the Bradley Center. Regulation featured 11 ties and 7 lead chances before St. John's took what looked like a decisive 72-66 lead with 22 seconds to play. Marquette finished regulation with a flurry. Davante Gardner was fouled with 11 seconds to play and automatically sank two free throws. Derrick Wilson made a quick steal and found Jake Thomas for a layup. Then, after a Jamil Wilson foul, Orlando Sanchez missed the front end of a one-and-one and Marquette was off to the races as Todd Mayo hit a buzzer beating layup to force overtime. The teams went back and forth in overtime. The game ultimately featured 18 ties, 13 lead changes, and Derrick Wilson missing a jumper at the buzzer of the second overtime to end the game, any last hopes of an at-large bid, and Buzz Williams' coaching career in Milwaukee.

About that Pomeroy Ranking...

The new kenpom.com rankings are out and Marquette fans should be pleasantly surprised to see their team checking in at #17 in the country. Considering other rankings we've seen include T-Rank having them at #33, Three Man Weave slotting them in at #32, and most of the poll voters having them anywhere from the mid-20s to unranked, this is something many didn't see coming.

First of all, Pistol Brad at Anonymous Eagle did a nice job of breaking down the individual players that likely contributed to the improvement. If you want to check out my Twitter feed, I posted a response to that article, but I felt it deserved a full article, so here we are.

When considering Pomeroy's rankings, we have to remember virtually everything is based on the Four Factors. The factors are effective field goal percent, turnover rate, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate. Let's look at each one individually and determine how they will likely change with Sam and Joey Hauser gone and Koby McEwen, Jayce Johnson, and Greg Elliott in.

Effective Field Goal Percentage: This is a mathematical calculation of how many points a player gets per shot they take. If you need a formula explanation, scroll down to eFG% here. The Hausers take with them 133 made threes and combined to make 40.9% from beyond the arc. The team three point percentage will likely decline and their overall combined eFG% last year was an impressive 56.3%. For comparison sake, if the Hausers were a team, that number would rank 7th in the nation. So what about the replacements? If we consider the most recent seasons for Johnson & Elliott, as well as Koby's first season (when his usage was lower, which it likely will be this year) the three combined for an eFG% of 56.7%. This definitely cherry picks McEwen's stats a bit, but I think it is safe to say that while this number may decline slightly, it won't fall off a cliff as much as some might expect because Marquette should have better interior finishing.

Turnover Rate: While Sam Hauser had an excellent 11.9% turnover rate, Joey was a fairly abysmal 22.3%. Elliott (19.9%), McEwen (19.2%), and Johnson (17.0%) are all significant improvements on Joey's numbers. But the real factor to consider is how much we are hearing about Brenden Bailey being a projected starter. Bailey's stunning 6.3% turnover rate, had he played enough minutes to qualify, would have been 4th in the country. More ballhandlers and better ballhandlers should lead to an improvement in turnover rate.

Offensive Rebounding: For front court players, the Hausers were not good offensive rebounders. Sam pulled down just 3.7% and Joey 3.6% of available offensive rebounds. For comparison, Brendan Bailey pulled down 6.5% of available offensive rebounds, nearly double what either Hauser did. But of players that will replace their minutes, Bailey is on the low end. Jamal Cain got to 7.2% of offensive rebounds, Theo John got to 11.1%, Jayce Johnson got to 14.1% (27th in the country), and Ed Morrow got to 15.5% (he would've ranked 11th had he played just 1.6 more mpg). Even Greg Elliott got to 4.5% of offensive rebounds as a freshman. Quite simply, the departure of the Hausers should VASTLY improve Marquette's offensive rebounding. Last year, Marquette improved 80 spots in the rankings from #211 to #131 in offensive rebounding. I expect a similar improvement this year with the Hauser minutes going to players that are much, much better at crashing the offensive glass.

Free Throw Rate: Sam's 92.4% free throw percentage was a stellar 4th in the nation, but it would've meant far more if he actually got to the line. His 20.9% free throw rate was lower than anyone on the team except Jamal Cain. Joey had a respectable 38.4%, but even that won't be hard to replace. Of the newcomers, McEwen had a 37.4% free throw rate, Elliott had 44.9%, and Jayce Johnson had 59.0%. Marquette should be much better at getting to the line. They may not convert at the same rate, but free throw rate is far more important than percentage because of the dual effect of the raw attempts generating points and the fouls on the defense making it easier to attack offensively.

So on offense, the eFG% should roughly be a wash because interior scoring will be better while the team should be better at turnover rate, free throw rate, and significantly better at offensive rebounding. In terms of overall efficiency, this team actually projects to be better in 2019-20 without the Hausers than it was with them in 2018-19. That said, I think the team would be even higher had they stayed. McEwen and Elliott would still be here and as much as Jayce adds certain qualities the brothers don't have, the improved shooting from deep and the expected improvements from what the brothers actually did in 2018-19 versus them being expected to be better in 2019-20 would've likely led to a top-10 offensive ranking. Still, it's understandable why MU should be better on the offensive end this upcoming season.

Defensively, it's just as easy to see why this team will project to be better without them. When it comes to challenging shots and limiting eFG%, the team will have more athleticism and shot blocking/challenging ability without them. Neither of them excelled at creating turnovers. They were decent but not exceptional defensive rebounders and the addition of Johnson (23rd in the country and 5th among high major players) and particularly Koby McEwen (19th in the country for players 6'4" and under, one of the elite rebounding guards) should more than offset the Hausers. Sam was excellent and Joey average at defending without fouling, so that aspect may get worse, but it is the least important of the four factors and if the other three are all better, it's easy to see why this team should be better overall on the defensive end.

Georgetown Preview

Georgetown Hoyas
January 18, Capitol One Center, Washington, D.C.; February 26, fiserv.forum

Coach: Patrick Ewing (34-29)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 118.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 87.7
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 42

Projected Starters: PG James Akinjo (6'0" So), SG Mac McClung (6'2" So), SF Jamorko Pickett (6'8" Jr), PF Josh LeBlanc (6'7" So), C Omer Yurtseven (7'0" Jr)

Georgetown had about as mediocre a year as one could have last year. Non-con losses to Loyola-Marymount and SMU were head-scratchers and did damage to what was a very favorable schedule. In conference play, they split with 7 of their 9 opponents, sweeping only Providence and being swept by Creighton. So while they won some big games, they lost some bad ones as well. In Ewing's second season, they fell in the kenpom rankings for the second straight year, from 69 under Thompson III to 94 in Ewing's first year and 100 last year. They also lose leading scorer and rebounder Jessie Govan.

So where's the optimism? A great freshman class, buoyed by the Big East Rookie of the Year, James Akinjo. Both of their backcourt debutants averaged over 13 ppg, though multi-talented Josh LeBlanc was the most efficient offensively while providing boards on both ends. In addition, Yurtseven provides a big, experienced presence to be a like-for-like replacement for Govan and immediately is a contender with Theo John for best big man in the Big East. Pickett, the first big recruiting win for Ewing, has been terrible offensively (sub-90 ORtg his first two years) but provides needed length on defense. The bench is thin. Jagan Mosely, Jahvon Blair, and grad transfer Terrell Allen are competent backups, but are 6'3". Galen Alexander is the only real front court relief, aside from a bundle of expected freshmen projects.

On offense, Georgetown plays ultra-fast, a sharp contrast from the Thompson years. Despite finishing in the top two in the league in pace every year under Ewing, they also finished in the bottom four in efficiency. The reason is twofold. First, because players like Blair, Pickett, and Akinjo have been indisputably terrible inside the arc and because Jessie Govan, who had the highest interior usage, was mediocre (52.8 2PFG% the last two years) in that regard. Further, while they're a more efficient team from three, they don't take a ton of shots outside the arc. They will hope another year of experience will improve upon that, but it's the same poor finishers and Omer Yurtseven's 54.8 2PFG% in two years at NC State is only a slight upgrade from Govan. Defensively, there's no real identity. Despite Ewing being a staunch defender as a player (like Wojo) he hasn't been able to convey that to his team.  They don't have enough depth and length to stick with a zone and usually seem overmatched in man. I've seen Hoyas fans indicating that was largely Govan's fault as an immobile tree that only blocked shots, but if the answer to that is Yurtseven, I don't think expectations should change much.

On paper, Georgetown looks like a clear #7 in the Big East. They have some talent, but the ball will likely spend too much time in the hands of less efficient players like Akinjo and McClung. If Yurtseven fits in immediately and they run the offense through him and LeBlanc while finding a defensive identity, maybe they can move up in the pecking order, but they just seem to have too many holes in the starting lineup and especially bench to be a top-half team. The ability to get Ewing's first NCAA berth is there, but it's worth noting that despite the optimism around the program, they have regressed in overall efficiency rankings per Pomeroy in each of his first two seasons.

Marquette Memory: After narrow wins over St. John's and Villanova, Marquette was one win away from reaching the 2010 Big East Tournament final. The only thing standing in their way was a Georgetown team they had beaten 3 straight times, including a 62-59 win in D.C. earlier that year. From the outset, it wasn't meant to be. Georgetown started on a 15-4 run and every time Marquette surged back, the Hoyas had an answer. Maurice Acker's layup pulled Marquette to a manageable 56-51 deficit before a decisive 14-1 Georgetown run put the game away. Greg Monroe led the Hoyas with 23 points, 13 rebounds, and 7 assists as they ran Marquette out of MSG with a 23-point defeat.

Xavier Preview

Xavier Musketeers
January 15, fiserv.forum; January 29, Cintas Center, Cincinnati OH
Coach: Travis Steele (19-16)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 35.7
3-Year kenpom Average: 37.0
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 37

Projected Starters: PG Quinton Goodin (6'4" Sr), SG Paul Scruggs (6'3" Jr), SF Naji Marshall (6'7" Jr), PF Jason Carter (6'8" Jr), C Tyrique Jones (6'9" Sr)

It was a rough start for new head coach Travis Steele, who was staring at a losing overall record and 6-game Big East losing streak on February 9. The Musketeers rallied to win 7 of their next 8 and were only denied a spot in the Big East Tournament title game when eventual champion Villanova rallied from 7 down with under 4:00 to play to force overtime and knock them out in the semifinal. Xavier was invited to the NIT, where they also lost in overtime to the eventual champion, Texas.

Hope is blossoming in Cincinnati. While they did lose three graduate transfers, they return the core of last year's team. Marshall, Scruggs, Goodin, and Jones all averaged double-digit scoring. Marshall is the presumed leader, moving down to the small forward position thanks to the physical presence of grad transfer Jason Carter (who has two years eligibility). Marshall is a multi-talented player that can put up big raw numbers, but has issues with turning the ball over and isn't a particularly good shooter. Scruggs and Goodin are both capable backcourt options, but while both have shown flashes, at least one needs to step up as a reliable second scorer. Jones is the most efficient of them, largely because of his ability to dominate on the offensive glass. The rest of the roster is a question mark. Carter and fellow grad transfer Bryce Moore both have experience, but have to make the step up from bottom of the MAC teams as both finished last in their divisions last year, Carter at Ohio and Moore at Western Michigan. The rest of the roster is freshmen. Of those, expect to see dynamic scoring guard KyKy Tandy and big man Zach Freemantle the most. Tandy offers a downhill attacking ability while Freemantle is expected to be the main front court backup.

Steele was the architect of the Chris Mack offense. While Steele, like many coaches, preached pushing the pace in his early interviews, his actions were the opposite. At their best, Mack's teams spread the floor out with multiple wings and are aggressive attacking toward the basket. This allows them to get to the line and take advantage of stalwart big men like Jones cleaning up the glass. On their face, this team has the roster to do that, with a variety of long players able to play on the perimeter and drive downhill, but Steele played at the slowest pace of any Xavier team since the shot clock was shortened to 30 and the lowest tempo ranking (302) of any Xavier team in the advanced stats era. Defensively, Steele has proven malleable. He often employed a zone last year to try to keep sharpshooter Ryan Welage on the floor, as he was a complete defensive liability. Expect more man this year, though I'll need to see more to be convinced Xavier's defensive strategy is anachronistic. Under both Steele and Mack, their best asset is on the defensive glass. They don't do enough to challenge shots and don't create the turnovers and transition chances Steele talked about when hired. They also allow teams to take and make too many threes while not having the ability to counter that on the offensive end.

I want to like this Xavier team, but there's a lot to clean up for them to be a Big East contender. Their three primary ball-handlers all had turnover rates north of 21% (think Joey Hauser, only at PG, SG, and SF). They were an anemic three-point shooting team and lost their best shooter. And despite having length all over the floor, they don't turn teams over. To be clear, Steele had a tough job, taking over for a great coach and having to replace four seniors, including Trevon Blueitt and J.P. Macura. But currently, there's no clear leader (six players averaged 18+ mpg and 20+% usage last year) and it's hard to see what this team's identity will be. They have a favorable non-conference schedule that has their toughest games (Missouri & Cincinnati) at home with winnable road games (at Wake Forest & TCU) and a non-con tournament where they should be able to get at least 2 wins. I expect Xavier to start strong, but once Big East play starts, I think this team comes back down to earth and finishes around the middle of the pack. They have enough talent to get to the NCAA Tournament, but not enough of a clear identity to be a true contender.

Marquette Memory: Xavier was ranked #6 in the country and on their way to a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament when they opened Big East play at the Bradley Center. Andrew Rowsey led the way in a back-and-forth affair. A Jamal Cain three put Marquette ahead with 10 minutes to play, but a 14-4 run put Xavier in the driver's seat. Marquette did manage to tie it once again, at 80, but cold shooting at the arc from Markus Howard (1/8 from three) likely doomed them in their failed upset bid as the Musketeers left the BC with a 91-87 victory. In a season where Marquette went 0-6 against teams that finished on the top two seed lines, that was maybe their best shot at a resume-affirming win as they instead had to settle for the NIT.

Seton Hall Preview

Seton Hall Pirates
January 11, Prudential Center, South Orange, NJ; February 29, fiserv.forum

Coach: Kevin Willard (169-126 at Seton Hall, 214-175 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 44.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 45.7
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 29

Projected Starters: PG Quincy McKnight (6'3" RS Sr), SG Myles Powell (6'2" Sr), SF Myles Cale (6'6" Jr), PF Sandro Mamukelashvili (6'10" Jr), C Ike Obiagu (7'2" C)

Seton Hall had a roller coaster of a season last year. They had a rocky 1-2 start before finishing non-con on a tear, including wins over Kentucky, Miami, and Maryland away from home. They started conference play 2-0 before dropping six of their next eight games. A three-game winning streak was followed by a three-game losing streak. They rallied at the end, earning home wins over Marquette and Villanova before a trip to the Big East Tournament final proved just enough to earn them an at-large bid. It wasn't overwhelming success, but it was a solid result for what was expected to be a transitional year.

Most of that team comes back for the Pirates. Powell leads the way and, along with Markus Howard, is one of two Big East players that is expected to be in the running for All-American honors. Cale, McKnight, and Mamukelashvili are all decent complementary scoring options. In the middle, Obiagu leads a hosts of bigs, including Romaro Gill, Taurean Thompson, and Tyrese Samuel. While they won't likely contribute much offensively, they have a lot of rim protection options.

On offense, Seton Hall's strategy was basically run everything through Powell. He took 31.4% of the shots when he was on the floor, no other player that averaged double-digit minutes took more than 20%. They ran a ton of screens for him and when he drew extra attention, he would be used as a decoy to open up the bigs down low. It seems their entire offense is either designed for Powell or to take advantage of the attention given to Powell. Defensively, they were decidedly mediocre last year. They want to chase teams off the line and funnel them into the shot blockers, but don't really excel in any aspect. The additional size and experience should help, but consistency has been a problem for them throughout Willard's career so it's hard to expect that with a fairly static roster.

The consensus seems to be that Seton Hall is ready for a breakthrough. The Big East coaches picked them to win the league and they are consistently picked as a top-2 Big East team and top-15 team nationally. I don't see it. This is essentially the same roster that looked certain to go to the NIT in early March. Their offense is completely reliant on one player and their defense is shaky at best. In addition, Kevin Willard has struggled to get the best out of his most talented teams. Powell is a phenomenal talent but there's no one who has shown the ability to be the Robin to his Batman. Further, while you don't need to be a great defensive team to top the polls, you need to be able to get stops, and I'm not convinced Seton Hall can do that. This looks like a tournament team, but I think they're more likely to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the league and in line for a seed in the 6-9 range than the 3-5 pundits seems to be expecting.

Marquette Memory: Let's go all the way back to March of this year. After Marquette choked away a 13-point lead in under 10 minutes at the Rock, Wojo's team faced Seton Hall a second time in 9 days at Madison Square Garden with a trip to the Big East Tournament final on the line. Marquette was leading with 12:48 to play when James Breeding took over the game. The problem being, of course, that James Breeding was a referee. An altercation under the Seton Hall basket led to Marquette starters Sacar Anim and Theo John being thrown out along with Seton Hall's Sandro Mamukelashvili and Myles Powell. Then, inexplicably, despite having been called for both a flagrant and a technical foul, the refs called for Myles Powell to come back from the locker room. Powell rallied the Hall from a 5-point deficit, scoring or assisting on 14 of SHU's final 23 points. Oh, and despite the traveshamockery this game was, Breeding went on to officiate in the Final Four.

Providence Preview

Providence Friars
January 7, fiserv.forum; February 22, Dunkin Donuts Center, Providence RI

Coach: Ed Cooley (162-110 at Providence, 254-179 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 52.7
3-Year kenpom Average: 67.3
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 23

Projected Starters: PG Luwane Pipkins (5'11" RS Sr), SG David Duke (6'5" So), SF A.J. Reeves (6'6" So), PF Alpha Diallo (6'7" Sr), C Nate Watson (6'10" Jr)

The Friars had a respectable non-conference season, despite an upset home loss to Luwane Pipkins' Massachusetts team. Then came the injury to freshman scoring star A.J. Reeves. Reeves was averaging 14.2 ppg before his injury. Reeves missed 9 games in the middle of the season that included a 2-4 start to conference play and after getting back he only scored 6.9 ppg the rest of the way. They finished 7-11 in conference play, but had leads in the second half or overtime of 7 of those losses. Providence was constantly the team that had chances to win and couldn't get it done, which led to them missing the NCAA and accepting a NIT bid.

Ed Cooley returns the majority of last year's team. Diallo is long, do-everything forward that will be expected to carry the load, but he has a lot of help. Watson averaged double-digit scoring and Reeves looked like a go-to scorer in flashes. Transfer Pipkins, who was instrumental in the Friars' upset loss a year ago, is reminiscent of the point guards Cooley has thrived with; guys like Kyron Cartwright, Bryce Cotton, and Vincent Council. He's a quick, heads-up guard that can score and distribute. The question will be if his offensive skills (averaged 18.9 ppg/4.5 apg the last two years at UMass) will translate to the Big East. The other question mark is who the fifth starter will be. Duke seems to be the safe bet, but if Emmitt Holt is healthy, he could be a difference maker. The 6'7" forward was granted a sixth season and, if he's back to his 2017 form, could give the Friars the most complete starting five in the league.

Cooley's offense is predicated on the transition game. He wants his teams to force turnovers and press the attack quickly. They look to drive first, but will kick it out to open shooters and continue pressing the secondary break. Their fluid passing means a lot of assists. Cooley generally runs through a ball-dominant point guard. Last year's lack of success largely came down to not having that guy. Consider this, in Cooley's first seven years at PC, his lead guard had a top-20 in the nation assist rate every single season. Lots of ball movement, lots of passes, and one maestro pulling the strings. On the other end, pressure is the name of the game. Friar defenders will guard tightly and seek to get into passing lanes. They try to take away the dribble and force opposing teams to pass the ball, which allows their long defenders to get into those lanes, create turnovers, and start the attack.

The consensus on the Friars seems to be bottom half of the Big East, fighting for a spot on the bubble. The real outlier is T-Rank, which has them 23rd in the nation. Personally, I think the Friars are very underrated. In a league where few teams have senior leadership, Pipkins and Diallo figure to have the ball in their hands a lot. Both Reeves and Watson have proven themselves to be reliable complimentary scorers. And while it's a big if, if Emmitt Holt comes back and is anything like what he was in 2017, they would be adding a proven, physical 23-year-old Big East big man. Ed Cooley is widely regarded as one of, if not the best coaches in the league outside Jay Wright. His team has athleticism, length, scoring, and experience. This team looks like a comfortable NCAA team, and if healthy, they could be a surprise contender for the Big East title and protected seed in the NCAA Tournament.


Marquette Memory: The lights went out and Whitney Houston's "I Will Always Love You" belted out over the Bradley Center sound system. Phone screens sprang to life, creating a concert like atmosphere in the building, where just moments before, a basketball game had been going on. Most of the fans first realized what was going on when Providence forward Sidiki Johnson fell to the ground, flailing away from a bat flying around the court. Shortly thereafter, players were swinging and throwing towels at the bat. Ed Cooley was shrouded in a towel. The refs tried to resume the action, but there was no deterring the bat until it was serenaded out of the BC by Whitney. After it finally flew through the roof, the game resumed and Marquette finished off an 81-71 victory over the Friars. It was one of the most unforgettable moments in the history of that building.

Villanova Preview

Villanova Wildcats
January 4, fiserv.forum; February 12, Finneran Pavilion, Philadelphia, PA

Coach: Jay Wright (448-175 at Villanova, 570-260 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 9.7
3-Year kenpom Average: 11.0
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 19

Projected Starters: PG Colin Gillespie (6'3" Jr), SG Bryan Antoine (6'5" Fr), SF Jermaine Samuels (6'7" Jr), PF Saddiq Bey (6'8" So), C Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (6'9" Fr)

Villanova started the season in uncharacteristic fashion, losing more non-conference games (4) than they had in the past five seasons combined (3). Jay Wright juggled the lineup, finding more success with additional minutes for Samuels and Bey. That led to an 11-1 start to Big East play before a late-season lull saw them dropping 4 of their last 6 games. Even still, they won the Big East regular season outright and followed it up with a Big East tournament title. The Wildcats fell in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, but you know you have a special program when a "down year" involves winning the double-championship in your league.

'Nova lost their two best players in Phil Booth and Eric Paschall, but have a star-studded recruiting class to replace them along with a cadre of experienced juniors and sophomores that will have them staying in the mix for Big East titles. Gillespie, Samuels, and Bey were all highly efficient role-players that will need to step up and be more productive in expanded roles. Antoine is a shot-maker and the biggest star of the recruiting class, but his health is a question. They hope to have him to start the season, but he could be out until the start of conference play. If he's not around, more will be expected of another 5-star recruit, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, who is expected to start up front ahead of reliable veteran Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree. Jay Wright has a young but talented bench, with Cole Swider and Eric Dixon providing front court depth. Another name to watch is Justin Moore. He isn't as flashy as Antoine, but is a hard-nosed guard that could earn minutes early if Antoine isn't ready to go. If some of the returning guys show they can score, a tougher, defense-first guy may be a welcome addition.

Anyone familiar with the Big East has to be familiar with Villanova. Offensively, they are going to spread the floor with a 5-out offense while raining threes like a meteor shower. And the same long, athletic, lethally accurate athletic mismatches are going to be tough, steadfast defenders that get a hand up on every shot and defend without fouling. The Wildcats have slowed their pace in recent years, particularly on the offensive end, where they have been in the bottom third of tempo each of the past 4 years. This is a slow-down club that plays beautiful offense and suffocating defense.

This Villanova team looks like they will be absolute world-beaters...in 2020-21. While they have the talent to win the Big East this year, they don't have anyone that has proven they can shoulder the load for a contender. If Bey or Gillespie can become a First Team Big East player, if Antoine can be a go-to scorer, if all the newcomers are ready to contribute on both ends, if all those things come together, maybe they can reach their peak this year, but it feels unlikely. There will be bumps along the road and this team just looks a little too young to run over the league this year. We saw that even in a down year, Villanova can win Big East titles. That could be the case this year, but while they look like a top-3 team, I don't think they're the prohibitive favorite so many are making them out to be.

Marquette Memory: Marquette was ranked #8 in the country and atop the Big East when Dominic James went down against UConn. They lost that game and slumped to a 4-game losing streak heading into the Big East Tournament. Things started well enough as Buzz Williams' team drilled St. John's, but then they faced Villanova in the quarterfinals. After falling behind 47-31 at the half, a furious second-half rally allowed Lazar Hayward to hit a three with 1:36 to play that put Marquette ahead 75-74, their first lead since it was 3-2. Two squandered offensive possessions later and Villanova got the ball back with no timeouts and 14 seconds to play. The Wildcats played around the perimeter before Reggie Redding drove the lane with time running down. Jerel McNeal left his man, Reynolds threaded the needle to Dwayne Anderson, and a layup at the buzzer ended Marquette's upset bid. Just one more disappointing loss in a season that saw Final Four aspirations evaporate in the final month of the season.

Creighton Preview

Creighton Blue Jays
January 1, CHI Health Center, Omaha NE; February 18, fiserv.forum

Coach: Greg McDermott (207-109 at Creighton, 487-304 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 41.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 37.7
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 33

Projected Starters: PG Marcus Zegarowski (6'2" So), SG Davion Mintz (6'3" Sr), SF Ty-Shon Alexander (6'4" Jr), PF Mitch Ballock (6'5" Jr), C Christian Bishop (6'7" So)

***Updated to reflect the injury to Jacob Epperson***

The Jays stumbled in their consequential non-conference games and got off to a terrible start in Big East play before rebounding to win their final five conference games & earning a NIT bid, where they were able to win a couple games before squandering a halftime lead and falling on the road at TCU. There were high hopes with everyone expected back, but on an already undersized team, the two bigs that played the most minutes, Martin Krampelj and Samson Froling, left to pursue professional options.

Creighton has a lot of offensive firepower mixed with defensive questions. Five of their top six scorers are back and transfer wing Denzel Mahoney averaged 19.3 ppg as a sophomore at Southeast Missouri State. Alexander and Ballock both have big-time scoring abilities and aside from the bigs, everyone can shoot the three. The Jays suffered a blow when they lost Jacob Epperson, who figured to start at center. That leaves them with the undersized Bishop, who showed a few flashes in limited minutes last year, or Idaho State grad transfer Kelvin Jones, who was marginally efficient for a sub-300 kenpom team. Size will be a challenge all year long, which could lead to another defense-challenged squad.

Offensively, Creighton is lethal. They run a spread motion offense that wants to get efficient shots up before the defense can get set. They take and make a ton of threes, as last year they finished in the top 30 in the percentage of field goals taken beyond the arc, three-point field goal percentage, and the percentage of points gained from three. As a team, they don't crash the offensive glass, but the four guys that played in the middle for them were all good offensive rebounders and shot over 60% from two. The question this year is if Bishop or Jones will be up for that challenge over a sustained Big East season. Defensively, they were a sieve most of last year, but that changed in the final month of the season. Collectively, the team increased their effort, closed out better on threes, and pursued turnovers. Their forced turnover rate went up, opponent three-point shooting went down, and Creighton went from having one of the league's worst defenses to the best over the final five games of conference play.

This Creighton team is a lot like Marquette's 2018 NIT team. Lethal shooters all over the floor, but questions defensively and insecurity at the center position. I initially thought they were a dark horse to challenge for the league title, but without a reliable interior presence this is a team that will live and die on making threes. I feel they went from a likely safe single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament to a team that will be more likely be on the bubble most of the year. The Jays are going to score, but running an undersized, effort-based defense for an entire season will challenge any team.

Marquette Memory:  Marquette started the season as Big East favorites, but the 2014 team was struggling to stay on the bubble when Creighton came to town in February. While the overall record was okay, losses to Ohio State, Wisconsin, San Diego State, Villanova, and Creighton meant Buzz's team didn't have that marquee win on the resume. Doug McDermott and Ethan Wragge were determined to keep it that way. They combined for 47 points as Creighton started the beat-down early and never let up. The loss snapped a 3-game Marquette winning streak and began a slide that led to Buzz Williams' departure as MU lost 5 of their final 7 games. And on a personal note, it was the only time I ever saw Milwaukee Police come into the stands at the Bradley Center as they had to remove a number of rowdy, drunken, abusive Creighton fans.

Very Preliminary Value Add Projections Put MU 30th, Powell & Markus Possible National POY

Click here for the VERY preliminary dump of Value Add Projections for all the players in the system. Due to be swamped at work for a few months, I pulled this together as best I could with a 20 hour marathon day, so corrections or comments are welcome and you can type into Column C on the first slide by any player. 

I purposely just follow my script of what a players value should be this year based on his year in school and the normal progression based on last year's value, as well as rankings of freshmen, JUCOS and www.nbadraft.net rankings. While I have a system for mapping transfers, it is certainly not foil proof, and there are certainly other places errors can be made such as I assume anyone I had down as a senior is no longer eligible, but of course in some cases they are. I also purposely do not spend any extra time adjusting Marquette or other Big East players - if there wasn't already something in the system that would "automatically" generate a projected rankings, then they have a 0.00 for now because that is what would happen with all other teams.

With all those qualifiers, the following are a few tables.

First, in the Big East Villanova ranks 11th in the country, Creighton 22nd,and Marquette 30th for the top three spots. I did not look to see if this jives with preseason forecasts, just ran the numbers with what I had in the system. I also rank every team based on NBA potential, giving each player a ranking of 100 (best) to 1 (longshot) based on DraftNet rankings and then giving each team the total of their players plus 25 extra for each player (so Markus is an 86, which gives MU a 111 which would rank MU 33rd based just on NBA talent.

Team Projection	Rank	Value Add	NBA Talent Rank	Players	NBA Prospects	NBA Talent	2019 Rank	2019 Seed
Villanova	11	42.17	17	10	3	261	30	6
Creighton	22	36.96	38	11	1	112	55	NIT2
Marquette	30	34.13	39	14	1	111	33	5
Seton Hall	34	32.94	85	13	1	28	60	10
Xavier	45	31.46	32	11	3	121	65	NIT3
Georgetown	52	30.97	24	10	2	204	100	NIT3
Butler	64	28.67	52	11	1	87	72	NIT5
Providence	72	27.16	16	10	4	263	79	NIT4
DePaul	114	19.91	30	10	2	139	118
St. John's	138	18.16	66	9	1	59	88	11

Second, here are the Top 25 players that pop up in the projections, and interestingly DraftNet does not have Myles Powell showing up as a prospect yet but he does project as the second best player in the country, whereas they are ranking Markus a good bit higher this year even though he projects just a shade below Powell in 6th in the preseason projections (I did meet with the founder of DraftNet in San Francisco last year and his track record is pretty amazing). Here are the top 25 projected players - and yes please point out any place I am listing someone on the wrong team or who has left.

Name	Rank	Team	Value Add 5	Ht	Class	NBA?
Cassius Winston	1	Michigan St.	12.34	6'1"	Sr	74
Myles Powell	2	Seton Hall	11.16	6'2	Sr
Sam Merrill	3	Utah St.	10.18	6'5	Sr
James Wiseman	4	Memphis	10	7'0"	Fr	98
Jordan Ford	5	Saint Mary's	9.99	6'1	Sr
Markus Howard	6	Marquette	9.83	5'11	Sr	86
Jon Axel Gudmundsson	7	Davidson	9.64	6'5	Sr
Isaiah Stewart	8	Washington	9.5	6'9"	Fr	99
Anthony Lamb	9	Vermont	9.47	6'6	Sr
Davide Moretti	10	Texas Tech	9.17	6'2"	Jr
Desmond Bane	11	TCU	9.10	6'5"	Sr	34
Terry Taylor	12	Austin Peay	9.09	6'5	Jr
Grant Riller	13	Charleston	9.03	6'3	Sr
Anthony Edwards	14	Georgia	9	6'4"	Fr	100
Devon Dotson	15	Kansas	8.91	6'2	So	70
Jarron Cumberland	16	Cincinnati	8.84	6'5	Sr	12
Cameron Reddish	17	Duke	8.8	6'7	1 Fr
Tres Tinkle	18	Oregon St.	8.8	6'8	Sr	30
Kerry Blackshear	19	Florida	8.78	6'10"	Sr	68
Xavier Tillman	20	Michigan St.	8.78	6'8"	Jr
Skylar Mays	21	LSU	8.70	6'4"	Sr
Obi Toppin	22	Dayton	8.64	6'9	So	71
Ignas Brazdeikis	23	Michigan	8.52	6'7"	So	88
Cole Anthony	24	North Carolina	8.5	6'2"	Fr	99
Tyreke Key	25	Indiana St.	8.48	6'2	Jr

Finally as you scroll through the sheet it is organized team by team. If I know a player is not eligible until next season then you see a /2021 by the team name. If I do not have a figure for a player yet, then they have a 0 for now - not an indication that they will not have value,just that they are not ranked yet. Very interesting that besides Markus, MU has two centers projected to be in the top 15% of all players in Theo and Jayce, Ed Morrow is just behind them, and it will be interesting to see if he shoots higher as a true power forward instead of an undersized center, as well as if Symir Torrence is already as strong as he projects - or if the reports of Koby McEwen being even better than his ranking would indicate bear out.

Marquette Player	Proj Value Add		Class	NBA Rank
Dexter Akanno	0		Fr
Sacar Anim	2.25	6'5	Sr
Brendan Bailey	2.09	6'8	So
Jamal Cain	1.04	6'7	Jr
Brendan Carney	0
Greg Elliott	3	6'3	So
Tommy Gardiner	0		So
Markus Howard	9.83	5'11	Sr	86
Osasere Ighodaro/2021	0
Theo John	3.55	6'9	Jr
Jayce Johnson	3.6	7'0	Sr
Michael Kennedy	0
Justin Lewis/2021	0
Koby McEwen	2.36	6'4	Jr
Ed Morrow	3.37	6'7	Sr
Symir Torrence	3.04	6'3"	Fr
Team	34.13			111

That is a quick summary of a cram job to try to get as much as I could organized and into the sheet. It is not on the www.valueaddbasketball.com website yet because I want a few eyes to see it first to note any obvious mistakes.

Central Arkansas Preview

Central Arkansas Bears
December 28, fiserv.forum

Coach: Russ Pennell (49-108 at Central Arkansas, 142-166 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 277.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 274.3
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 281

Projected Starters: PG DeAndre Jones (5'11" Jr), SG Khaleem Bennett (6'4" So), SF Rylan Bergersen (6'6" Jr), PF Eddy Kayouloud (6'7" So), C Hayden Koval (7'0" Jr)

The Bears started 2018-19 in poor fashion, going 5-8 in non-conference play with three of those five wins against non-Division I opponents. Conference play began well as they got off to a 5-2 start, but seven straight losses sank their season as they sputtered to a 14-19 finish. The main reason was a porous defense that allowed over 1.00 points per possession in 17 of 19 losses.

While leading scorer Thatch Unruh is gone, the Bears return four starters from a team that tied for the second-most wins in a single season in program history.  Jones and Koval are proven scorers that can get baskets both inside and outside the arc while Kayouloud flashed big game potential on a number of occasions last year. UCA got a big mid-September boost when BYU transfer Rylan Bergersen was granted immediate eligibility. The wing struggled for minutes with the Cougars, but has the potential to be an immediate difference maker as a sharpshooter with size. This is a team that has a lot of length on the bench, with six additional players between 6'5" and 7'0". The tools are there to improve defensively, the question will be if Pennell can get that out of this team.

UCA runs a five-out motion offense. Even Koval can hit threes when called upon, though don't be surprised to see a heavy rotation on the wings as Pennell searches for someone to replace Unruh's long-range efficiency and scoring. This is an up-tempo offense that moves the ball well, puts up a lot of threes, and when attacking inside, gets to the line. They don't run many set plays but do a good job of creating for each other. At the other end, they simply haven't been good. They don't do much well at all. Pennell has only had a top-300 defense once at UCA and that was a team ranked #268 in efficiency in 2017-18. What that defense did well was block shots (thanks to Koval), force turnovers (thanks to Jones), and forced teams inside with tenacious perimeter defending. They have the players and length to make that work, but that team was also much better at putting the ball in the basket which allowed them to get back and play in a set defense. The better they are at scoring, the better they will be at defending.

When I originally composed this, UCA looked like a dud on paper but I felt they had potential to be better than the pundits were predicting. With the addition of Bergersen, I'm even higher on this team. Their T-Rank jumped from 294 to 281 after that addition and he provides a replacement for Unruh. Their 8-10 record in the Southland was also the second best in program history. Most of the teams in the Southland lost more than the Bears did and after prohibitive favorites Sam Houston State, the league is wide open. I expect them to finish over .500 in league play and contend for a top-half finish. While they will likely be one of the low points on the schedule, when the worst opponents on your schedule look like NET 250-275 opponents, it's a lot better than the 3 average sub-300 opponents MU has faced in Wojo's first 5 seasons.

Marquette Connection: Single season scoring average record, Howard. Single season points scored record, Howard. Single season field goals made, Howard. Single season three point attempts, Howard. Career points scored record, Howard. Wait a minute...Markus doesn't have that one yet! That's because those records come from the Central Arkansas record book, where Markus Howard's older brother Jordan was a star for four years and shattered many of their all-time records. The elder Howard was one of the most prolific scorers in the nation as a Bear, as his 25.3 ppg as a senior ranked 3rd in the country. But there's one record that neither brother could accomplish on their own, and that's the all-time record for points scored by two brothers in NCAA history. In 2013, Seth and Stephen Curry took that record away from Tyler and Ben Hansbrough. Their record stands at 4,736 points. As of the preseason, the Howard brothers have combined for 4,479 points, third best in NCAA history. They are 6 points behind the Hansbroughs and 257 points behind the Currys. There's a chance that by the time this game tips off, the Howard brothers will stand alone atop this list, providing a connection between Central Arkansas and Marquette that remain etched in the NCAA record books for a long, long time. If Jordan is available, a pregame ceremony featuring both Howard brothers to celebrate the cross-program record that will likely be broken either before or during this game would be pretty darn cool.

North Dakota State Preview

North Dakota State Bison
December 20, fiserv.forum

Coach: Dave Richman (96-67)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 181.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 181.7
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 142

Projected Starters: PG Vinnie Shahid (5'11" Sr), SG Jared Samuelson (6'3" Sr), SF Tyree Eady (6'5" So), PF Tyson Ward (6'6" Sr), C Rocky Kreuser (6'10" Jr)

Last year the Bison came into the Summit League Tournament as the hunter. After a 15-15 regular season earned them the league's 4-seed, they capitalized when the top seed South Dakota State lost in the first round. Wins over Oral Roberts and surprising Western Illinois gave them a relatively easy road to the final, where they dominated the first half and coasted to a win and NCAA berth as they defeated Nebraska-Omaha. Their run continued as the won a First Four game in Dayton and played close to overall top-seed Duke in the first half before the Blue Devils put the screws to them in the second half.

Now the Bison go from hunter to hunted. T-Rank has them as the favorites in the Summit as they return five starters all but one key contributor. Shahid and Ward are the stars, the top two scorers, and also lead the team in assists and rebounding, respectively. They present a unique threat as all five starters had at least 24 three-point makes and all shot at least 32.0% from beyond the arc. The Bison bring back experience, talent, and more depth than anyone else in their league. They are going to be a threat to return to the NCAA Tournament and are, on paper, the best buy game opponent Marquette will face this year, albeit by a narrow margin.

What makes the Bison effective is their offense. They were top 100 in eFG%, 3PFG%, 2PFG%, FT%, and literally every player on the roster can to hit the three. They play at a deliberate pace and take and make a lot of threes. This shortens the game and maximizes their ppp. They also are exceptional at not turning the ball over. All of their returning players had a turnover rate under 20%; for comparison sake, Marquette had 5 rotation players with a 20+% turnover rate last year. On defense, they will speed you up while trying to control the offensive glass and keeping opponents off the free throw line. However they are a poor shot defending team. Effective offensive teams are their kryptonite. They lost their first 12 games against kenpom top-150 offenses and finished the season just 2-13. When the Bison can be scrappy and run their offense, they win, but when they have to keep up with teams that can also score, they are in trouble.

The Bison showed promise last year and the table is set for them to win their league and return to the NCAA Tournament. In 5 seasons, Dave Richman has 4 campaigns with 19+ wins and should be confident his team can repeat that feat this year. Marquette has made a habit of having marquee buy games in recent years, and while North Dakota State is not on par with Buffalo or Vermont, this is a high-ceiling team that should be a Quadrant 3 opportunity.

Marquette Connection: This game will be a Minnesota reunion game. Both Vinnie Shahid and Sacar Anim played with the same Howard Pulley AAU team. On the high school side, Theo John's senior year at Champlin Park saw him face off against both Rocky Kreuser's Totino-Grace and Jarius Cook's Park Center teams (John's team won both contests). It will be a North Star showdown at the Fiserv Form.

Grambling State Preview

Grambling State Tigers
December 17, fiserv.forum

Coach: Donte Jackson (34-31)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 286.7
3-Year kenpom Average: 296.7
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 182

Projected Starters: PG Ivy Smith, Jr (6'0" Sr), SG Anthony Gaston (6'4" Sr), SF Dallas Polk-Hilliard (6'7" Sr), PF Axel Mpoyo (6'8" Sr), C Devante Jackson (6'9" Sr)

In 2006, Grambling went 14-13. That was the last time they had a record .500 or better before the arrival of Donte Jackson. In his two seasons with the Tigers, they have reached .500 both years, going 17-14 in his first year and 17-17 last year. That includes back-to-back winning conference seasons and an appearance in the CIT. For years, Grambling has been arguably the worst team in college basketball, but with Jackson at the helm, things are turning around. They are the prohibitive favorite in the SWAC, return 4 starters and their top-7 in points per game. This is an experienced, cohesive team that isn't the anchor chained to a NCAA resume that they once were.

The Tigers bring back almost everyone. Smith will be the likely preseason SWAC Player of the Year and both Polk-Hilliard and Mpoyo have the ability to take over games while also stepping out and shooting threes at about a 45% clip. This isn't just a team of starters, either. Coming off the bench, 6'7" Prince Moss ranked 7th in the nation beyond the arc at 48.5%. They have a monster in the middle with 7'1" Travon Bunch providing rim protection, rebounding, and inside scoring. And in the backcourt, Lasani Johnson, son of NBA great Larry Johnson, will insure there's little dropoff if the back court starters need a breather as he averaged 9.5 ppg/3.4 rpg. This is a team with proven starters and a bench that goes 10 deep.

When Coach Jackson came in, his immediate focus was to upgrade the intensity for the Tigers. That started on the defensive end. This is a team that will hustle, play hard, and challenge every shot. But that intensity also leads to a lot of fouls. Their opponents may struggle to make shots, and they do, but they get to the line a lot. Conversely, that's what Grambling does on the other end as well. Despite being a great three-point shooting team (40.2% was 4th in the country) they are a downhill, attacking team that excels at getting points at the line. Smith is truly the star. He's a true point guard that has the ability to distribute, attack the paint, make free throws, and be a defensive disruptor.

As stunning as this is to say, Grambling is going to be good. It might only be "for the SWAC" good, but considering what this program has been for the past 15 years, that is an accomplishment. Jackson has injected length, talent, motivation, and energy into this team and they have responded. Unlike many transfer-heavy SWAC teams, many of these guys have been playing together for 3 and 4 years, and the transfers come from successful programs (Polk-Hilliard from South Dakota State, Johnson from Stephen F Austin). This has a chance to be a Quadrant 3 game if the Tigers hit their ceiling and this will almost certainly be the best Grambling team in decades.

Marquette Connection: The first name that caught my eye was Travon Bunch. The Racine, WI native had an offer from Buzz Williams in 2013. He later went JUCO and joined Grambling last year. But looking at the Grambling roster...there's a LOT of local connections. Dallas Polk-Hilliard is a Milwaukee native that played at Messmer. Devante Jackson played at Brown Deer. Deontay Long, the #1 recruit in the 2019 Wisconsin class, is redshirting this year after some legal troubles. Why are there so many Milwaukee-area kids at Grambling? Look no further than head coach Donte Jackson. He is also a Milwaukee native and played his freshman year at UW-Milwaukee before transferring out of state. Clearly he's kept his local ties, and because of it, this will be a homecoming for many of his players that grew up in the shadow of Marquette. And for the rest of the year, if you want an underdog to root for, one full of Milwaukee-area kids seems like a good choice.

Practice has started so we shall pod

Official practice not based on a European trip has started for your Marquette basketball team so we need to pod. After a brief intro we talk about some of the news and notes coming from John Fanta as he spent the first day of practice with Wojo and the team (2:06). That leads into a discussion on the Brian Hamilton (The Athletic) article on the State of the Program for #mubb that came out a couple of weeks ago(22:06). We then focus on the commitment news of Osasere Ighodaro and analysis what that means for the 4 remain scholarships in the 2020 class(27:36) We then turn to other recruiting news to take about the general landscape and what Wojo is looking for (32:00) and then close out the pod with a high level overview of the Big East schedule now that it's been released (41:00). The season is neigh and as always, enjoy! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/32ytvt/scrambledeggs_edit_092319.mp3

Kansas State Preview

Kansas State Wildcats
December 7, Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS

Coach: Bruce Weber (150-89 at Kansas State, 463-244 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 44.7
3-Year kenpom Average: 30.7
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 40

Projected Starters: PG David Sloan (6'1" Jr), SG Mike McGuirl (6'2" Jr), SF Cartier Diarra (6'4" Jr), PF Xavier Sneed (6'5" Sr), C Makol Mawien (6'9" Sr)

Last year's Wildcats came in with high hopes. They were fresh off an Elite 8 bid and had 5 upperclassmen starters returning, including seniors Barry Brown, Dean Wade, and Kamau Stokes. After some lofty rankings to start the season, 4 losses by early January, including a road loss at Marquette, had K-State out of the top-25. From there, they rallied. The Wildcats won 12 of their last 14 conference games, earning the 1-seed in the Big 12 Tournament as they unseated Kansas from the top spot for the first time since 2004. From there, they were upset by Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament and fell to 13-seed UC-Irvine in the NCAA Tournament.

Their top-three scorers were Brown, Wade, and Stokes, all of whom are gone. Xavier Sneed tested the NBA Draft waters but decided to return for his senior season. The downside is that offensively, Sneed is the only returning player who averaged double-digit points and an offensive rating over 100. Sloan is a JUCO transfer that will likely get first crack at replacing Brown, but those are big shoes to fill. McGuirl and Diarra were decent bench players, but both are streaky shooters at best. This is an offensively challenged team that lost their three best scorers. Granted, their calling card was on defense, but those losses will be felt on that end as well as both Brown and Stokes were exceptional at guarding and creating turnovers without fouling.

The gameplan for the Wildcats starts with defense. The guards attack the ball-handler to force turnovers. They challenge every shot and limit offensive rebounds. They grind as much time out of possessions in order to shorten the game. And they generally do all of this without fouling. Offensively, they are challenged. They slow the game down on that end as well because Weber believes the best shot is not the closest but the most open. K-State will be patient and seems to operate on the philosophy that they don't have to be a good offensive team, they just have to be good enough to score some points while their defense suffocates you at the other end. At Fiserv Forum last year, we saw firsthand the ideal panacea to K-State's plan. Howard went straight at the Wildcats. He very deliberately fouled Dean Wade out midway through the second half, then went after Makol Mawien and did the same to him. Marquette sped up the game, drew the fouls K-State tries to avoid, and once there was no interior defenders left, scorched them inside the arc.

To me, K-State feels like a team that is about to fall sharply. Weber has struggled for consistency and his most notable achievement in Manhattan was largely due to benefiting from playing a 16-seed in the second round. They should still be a good defensive team, but I don't think they will be as good as they were last year. In the past six years, they have had a top-50 offensive efficiency just once, and losing three of their four most efficient offensive pieces means their #98 ranked offensive will likely be worse. Projections have them as a bubble team, but they look more like a NIT team that lacks the firepower to compete for a NCAA bid. The Octagon of Doom is always a tough place to play, so I don't expect an easy win, but Marquette definitely brings the best player and better team into this contest. I think this will be the first home-and-home high major sweep for Marquette of this century.

Marquette Connection: When Marquette enters the Octagon, they will be looking for their first win ever in Manhattan, having gone 0-5 in road games against KSU in the past. That started with a loss against the #1 ranked Wildcats in 1953. The closest Marquette game was a 56-55 loss on January 2, 1986. That game was the second of three consecutive 1-point losses to the Wildcats in consecutive seasons. Tom Copa led the way with 15 points while David Boone added 17 rebounds for the Warriors. On the upside, Marquette has never lost at the Octagon. It opened in 1988, 9 months after the last time Marquette played in Manhattan.

Five Times As Many Click on Game with Marquette 2003 Than Baseball Posts

Planning for the flight into Milwaukee for the tipoff against Loyola (preview here) at my favorite sports time of the year - who would believe the Brewers potential playoff run without Christian Yelich or that the Packers won their first three after being picked to finish 9-7.

I assumed I was one of the few focused on college basketball - so I was surprised to see that my the link to my Value Add Basketball game (a free dice game which features the 2003 Marquette team) on www.pudnersports.com pulled in 2,800 clicks this week - much more than my two main blogs on my Statis-Pro baseball games which drew a fairly average 205 and 254 clicks respectively last week. In that game the Brewers fell just short of my playoffs with a 47-43 mark (see this post which includes a photo of Tony Dorsett at the Pitt/Penn State game I attended for a little football angle). The fact that I play all roster players regardless of injuries helped the Cubs start strong in the Statis-Pro playoffs.

I started www.pudnersports.com after placing a few posts at www.crackedsidewalks.com that were not Marquette-centric, and realizing I should set up a new blog for those. For those of you who do not use blogger, it gives you a screen shot to check your traffic and see how many clicks each post gets to give you a screen like this.

The story on how to play the basketball game includes links to players for 48 great teams of this Century - the 42 schools which placed a team in the Final Four or the top five of www.kenpom.com and six extra teams with a great player I just wanted to include to round out each conference. I played a few games last season before shifting to baseball, and these will be the Big East standings when I resume to get fired up for Markus Howard and company.

Big East (past & present)	W	L	Pts	PtsAll	Pt Dif
Connecticut 2004	3	1	73	60	13.0
Villanova 2018	2	1	74	69	5.0
Marquette 2003	2	1	73	73	0.0
Louisville 2013	1	1	74	69	5.0
Georgetown 2007	1	1	76	71	5.0
Cincinnati 2002	1	1	71	75	-4.0
Creighton 2014	0	2	72	85	-13.0
Butler 2010	0	2	54	80	-26.0

Marquette 2003 edged 2014 National Player of the Year Doug McDermott  84-83 and defeated Steve Logan's 2002 team 73-62 (not far from their actual 77-63 win in the CUSA Championship). However, Roy Hibbert and the Georgetown 2007 team beatup on MU inside for a 74-62 win, and MU still needs to play the three national champions in the conference - UConn 2004, Louisville 2013 and Villanova 2018.

The results for all 6 conferences games appear in this google doc, or if you can open this image big enough, you can see all results here. Good luck Brewers and Packers for all those back in Milwaukee, but happy to see others geared up for basketball already.

Jacksonville Preview

Jacksonville Dolphins
December 4, fiserv.forum

Coach: Tony Jasick (70-92 at Jacksonville, 122-139 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 287.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 280.7
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 299

Projected Starters: PG Aamahne Santos (5'10" Sr), SG DeAnthony McCallum (6'4" Sr), SF Kevin Norman (6'4" Jr), PF Tyreese Davis (6'6" So), C Dave Bell (6'9" Sr)

The Dolphins had an up and down season last year with the downs generally lasting longer than the ups. When they were good, it was largely down to two players: star guard J.D. Notae, who led the team in scoring, rebounding, and assists and forward Jace Hogan. Any momentum the Dolphins hoped to build was largely hurt with the graduation of Hogan and the transfer of Notae to Arkansas, one of four guards to leave the program this past offseason.

If there's reason for optimism, it's the return of three starters. Santos slides to the point from the SG position, Davis flashed potential before missing the final few games of the season, and Bell anchored the middle after transferring in from Ohio State. In addition, McCallum was a spot-starter and Norman was a JUCO All-American so there is experience in this team.

In Tony Jasick's first three years at Jacksonville, the Dolphins progressively shot more and more threes and did so at a highly effective rate, which was a continuation of what he had taught at IPFW. They seemed to be embracing pace and space, and then the previous coach's players graduated and those numbers fell off a cliff. The one positive adjustment they made was pounding inside, which they have done effectively as Bell, McCallum, and Davis were all over 54% on 2PFGs. But defensively they were one of the worst teams in the country at stopping the three. When you play really fast and let other teams make a lot of threes, it generally doesn't end well.

Jacksonville is one of the two teams on the schedule that are effectively duds. They are a bottom-half of the Atlantic Sun team and will almost certainly be fighting to stay in the top-300 of NET. Losing Notae, Hogan, and another promising guard in Jalyn Hinton hurt their outlook significantly. This is a game Marquette should win comfortably and a game in which Markus Howard in particular could feast. But considering they are the worst T-Rank projected team on the schedule and still in the top-300, that's a good thing. While the Dolphins won't be good, they are a significant upgrade from the teams we've seen in that "bottom of the schedule" classification in past years.

Marquette Connection: The first time Jacksonville played Marquette was a different type of occasion. The Dolphins, less than two years removed from a NCAA title game appearance, already had a top-10 road win over Florida State three weeks earlier. Marquette came in ranked #2 in the nation and undefeated. It was a back-and-forth affair, but ultimately Marquette's All-American center Jim Chones would lead the way to an 88-79 victory, tallying 23 points and 14 rebounds on the night. It would be Chones' final game in a Marquette uniform. Chones left the team in the middle of the season for the ABA at the recommendation of Al McGuire. Marquette would go 4-4 the rest of the way, dropping from #2 in the country down to #7 as they finished the season 24-4.

Texas A&M & Harvard Previews

Texas A&M Aggies
December 1, HP Field House, Orlando FL
Coach: Buzz Williams (0-0 at Texas A&M, 253-155 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 68.7
3-Year kenpom Average: 61.3
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 49

Projected Starters: PG T.J. Starks (6'2" Jr), SG Wendell Mitchell (6'3" Sr), SF Jay Jay Chandler (6'4" Jr), PF Savion Flagg (6'7" Jr), C Josh Nebo (6'9" Sr)

Billy Kennedy's started his final season in College Station 1-4 and it never really looked up from there as the Aggies missed the NCAA and NIT. They do return their top three and five of their top six scorers, so there's reason for optimism. In addition, Williams immediately landed a top-10 JUCO reserve in Quenton Jackson as well as a pair of freshmen in Cashius McNeilly and Emanuel Miller that will be expected to contribute immediately.

Buzz went from three-anemic at Marquette to a heavily perimeter-oriented attack at Virginia Tech. One thing about Williams, he excels at adapting his style to his team. This A&M team is filled with mediocre shooters, so expect them to pound it inside to Flagg and Nebo. Tempo-wise, I expect a slow pace. With the exception of his first year at Marquette with the Amigos, Williams has played slower and last year in Blacksburg was the lowest ranked tempo of his career. With an unfamiliar roster that could struggle to score, a slower pace and mostly zone defense seems likely. That said, there is enough here that a good coach might be able to eke a NCAA bid out of this roster.

Marquette Connection: Shall we talk about the elephant in the room? Paint Touches' contributor Ryan Jackson is a Marquette alum that works at Texas A&M. Oh...the OTHER elephant in the room. After a stellar run at Marquette that included two Sweet 16s and an Elite 8, Buzz Williams left for Blacksburg and brought Virginia Tech to their first Sweet 16 in more than five decades. Then, in customary Buzz fashion, he headed for greener pastures with a program in disarray behind him. If this game happens it will be the first meeting between Buzz and one of his former programs. This would be one of the biggest narratives of the Thanksgiving weekend and if MU lost this matchup would likely make #mubb Twitter and MUScoop.com unbearable for a week or so.

-----

-----------

-----

Harvard Crimson
December 1, HP Field House, Orlando FL
Coach: Tommy Amaker (180-92 at Maryland, 430-251 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 129.7
3-Year kenpom Average: 122.3
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 18

Projected Starters: PG Bryce Aiken (6'0" Sr), SG Christian Juzang (6'2" Sr), SF Justin Bassey (6'5" Sr), PF Seth Towns (6'7" RS Jr), C Chris Lewis (6'9" Sr)

Harvard has finished in a tie for the league title each of the past two years and ended each of those seasons in the NIT. On paper, Tommy Amaker's team looks like a strong bet to get back to the NCAA Tournament this year. Their top-7 scorers are all back, as is 2018 Ivy League Player of the Year Seth Towns, who missed last season with injury (and will likely be a hot grad transfer name in 8 months due to Ivy League rules). How optimistic should Crimson fans be? T-Rank only has them as underdogs once this entire season. They are deep, experienced, and talented. The top-20 projection might be a little bullish, but this does look like a fringe top-25 roster.

In the past, Amaker's teams have tended to play slow and make shots. They won't pound you inside and while they usually shoot free throws well, they struggle getting to the line. The return of Towns will be intriguing as Aiken dominated the offense last year, scoring 22.2 ppg. At the other end, expect pressure man-to-man defense. In terms of resume building, Harvard is set to be very good. 20-25 wins and a NCAA bid seem likely. This is the kind of team that will be a very tough out thanks to their experience and talent level.

Marquette Connection: Tommy Amaker and Steve Wojciechowski have a lot in common. Both played point guard for Coach K. Both won Defensive Player of the Year for Duke. Both were Duke assistants, both went on to head coaching careers, and both made the NIT in 2018, when Amaker's Crimson saw their season end in Milwaukee, dropping a 67-60 decision to Wojciechowski's Golden Eagles. While Amaker was part of the staff that recruited Wojo to Duke, he is probably getting sick of him on the opposing sideline: Amaker is 0-3 against teams Wojo has been on the coaching staff for, going 0-2 while at Michigan against Duke when Wojo was an assistant before that 2018 NIT game.

Maryland & Temple Previews

Maryland Terrapins
December 1, HP Field House, Orlando FL
Coach: Mark Turgeon (180-92 at Maryland, 430-251 overall)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 45.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 36.3
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 8

Projected Starters: PG Anthony Cowan (6'0" Sr), SG Darrell Morsell (6'5" Jr), SF Eric Ayala (6'5" So), PF Aaron Wiggins (6'6" So), C Jalen Smith (6'10" So)

Like Marquette, the Terps started last year on fire but faded down the stretch. Big man Bruno Fernando left for the NBA but everyone else of note returns. This is a talented team with potential star power in Cowan and Smith. The Terps could go bigger and put 4-star freshman Makhi Mitchell in the middle so Smith can remain at his natural PF position, but the roster above would give them a combination of on-ball defense and scorers.

The question this year will be the Terps' identity. Fernando dominated the offensive glass and was a potent rim protector, both of which were keys to their efficiency on both ends. They don't shoot particularly well and relied on put-backs. Expect a motion offense with a fairly deliberate pace. Everyone on the team can score, but I'm not sure they have that guy who can take control of a game. Defensively, they challenge shots and generally stick to man, though Turgeon is willing to go zone if necessary (see the LSU game last year). Maryland is getting top-10 respect and should be a Big 10 title contender. On paper, they are the best team Marquette could see in the non-conference, but pundits may be underestimating how important Fernando was on both ends of the floor. They will overwhelm some teams with sheer talent, but when it comes to other deep, high-major rosters, someone will have to emerge as a star.

Marquette Connection: If Maryland and Marquette meet in Orlando, it will mark the first time in their mutual history. Maryland is one of just three high-major programs (along with Oklahoma and California) that Marquette has never played. The closest they came was in the 2009 NCAA Tournament. The teams were set to meet in the Sweet 16, but each lost one game too early for the matchup to happen. Marquette lost to Missouri while Maryland fell to Memphis.

-----

-----------

-----

Temple Owls
December 1, HP Field House, Orlando FL
Coach: Aaron McKie (0-0)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 81.0
3-Year kenpom Average: 91.0
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 86

Projected Starters: PG Alani Moore (5'10" Sr), SG Nate Pierre-Louis (6'4" Jr), SF Quinton Rose (6'8" Sr), PF J.P. Moorman (6'7" Jr), C Justyn Hamilton (6'10" Jr)

Temple won 7 of their last 9 conference games to grab one of the last 2019 at-large NCAA bids. That streak was largely carried by the departed Shizz Alston's 23.7 ppg down the stretch. Alani Moore will take the reins, but it'll be hard for a guy who has only hit double-digit scoring 4 times in the past 2 years to fill those shoes. Expect the offense to be dominated by Rose, who is a high-usage, low-efficiency wing. The Owls have depth and experience as the top-8 rotation players are juniors or seniors, but the ones that look most likely to dominate the ball (Rose, Pierre-Louis, Moore) are also the least efficient offensively.

I expect this team to try to run. Since McKie's second season, Temple's pace has increased every year while top assistant Monte Ross had his greatest success pushing the pace at Delaware. Defensively, Temple focuses on turning teams over. Rose, Pierre-Louis, and bench wing D'Vondre Perry all excel at forcing turnovers so I expect a high-pressure man-to-man that seeks to get easy baskets in transition. As far as expectations, without Alston this just doesn't look like a tourney team. They will likely play fast and make games fun to watch, but Temple looks like a middle-of-the-American team that will be fighting for a NIT berth rather than a NCAA one. If Marquette plays them, it likely means they lost to Davidson.

Marquette Connection: Before Aaron McKie became the heir apparent to Fran Dunphy, there was another rising assistant at Temple. Current Marquette assistant Dwayne Killings started his college coaching career as the Director of Basketball Operations at Temple from 2006-09. After a brief stint away,  he came back as an assistant from 2011-16. He arrived with the Owls three years before McKie was hired. While McKie, as a Temple alum and former NBA assistant was a natural fit to succeed Dunphy, it's possible Killings would've been just as viable a candidate had he stuck around. This will be their first on-court reunion since Killings left Connecticut and the AAC for Marquette.

Fairfield Preview

Fairfield Stags
November 29, HP Field House, Orlando, FL

Coach: Jay Young (0-0)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 217.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 239.0
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 215
Projected Starters: PG Aidas Kavaliauskas (6'1" Sr), SG Landon Taliaferro (6'3" Sr), SF Taj Benning (6'3" Jr), PF Jesus Cruz (6'5" Jr), C Vincent Eze (6'8" RS Sr)

When it comes to the Advocare Invitational field, "one of these things is not like the others" and it's definitely Fairfield. It isn't just that the Stags were bad last year, and finishing bottom of the 28th ranked MAAC is definitely bad, but they proceeded to follow that up by firing Coach Sydney Johnson and losing three starters. Big men Matija Milan and Jonathan Kasibabu graduated while freshman point guard Neftali Alvarez transferred to Mercer. Before those departures, the Stags went 9-22 on their way to the worst kenpom ranking of Johnson's coaching career.

So who comes back for rookie coach Jay Young? Taliaferro was last year's leading scorer and will carry the offensive load alongside Cruz, the only other returning player who averaged over 6 ppg last year. Kavaliauskas and Benning both earned minutes last year, but are both also very turnover prone. Eze joins as a grad transfer from Maine that contributed as a rotation piece last year and will be expected to fill a bigger role for the Stags. Calvin Whipple and Wassef Methnani provide some depth off the bench, but this is generally an unproven team that was bad for a reason. The freshmen will be intriguing, particularly 6'10" big man Chris Maidoh, who needs development but picked Fairfield over St. John's.

Young had some success as a Division II head coach before joining Steve Pikiell as an assistant, first at Stony Brook and later at Rutgers. Unlike most recent head coach hires that preach offense and pushing pace, Young is planning to set the tone for the Stags on defense. His first two days of practice were exclusively working on defense. Pikiell's teams were deliberate on offense and got their points by outworking teams on the offensive glass. Defensively, they mixed man and zone, but I would expect more zone from Fairfield this year as it's easier to install early.

The consensus seems to be that Fairfield will be around the middle of the MAAC this year, but that still leaves them as by far the worst team in Orlando. USC should handle them with ease, so if Marquette plays Fairfield, the downside is a hit to the strength of schedule but the upside is what should be a comfortable 20+ point win. This is essentially a neutral court buy game and will likely be a Quadrant 4 win when Selection Sunday rolls around. The best case scenario would be Fairfield cracking the top-200 of NET to reach Quadrant 3, but I'm not at all optimistic and honestly, the T-Rank projection might be a bit high for this team.

Marquette Connection: Before he came to Marquette, former assistant coach Aki Collins was an assistant at Fairfield. Collins joined Buzz Williams' staff in 2008 and was best known for player development, though he was also instrumental in recruiting guards Derrick Wilson and Todd Mayo. In addition, Collins' boss at Fairfield was current Providence head coach Ed Cooley, who has a 5-9 record against Marquette since leaving the Stags for the Friars.

USC Preview

USC Trojans
November 29, HP Field House, Orlando, FL

Coach: Andy Enfield (151-120 overall, 110-92 at USC)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 54.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 62.0
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 77

Projected Starters: PG Elijah Weaver (6'5" So), SG Jonah Matthews (6'3" Sr), SF Daniel Utomi (6'6" RS Sr), PF Isaiah Mobley (6'9" Fr), C Nick Rakocevic (6'11" Sr)

On paper, the Trojans looked like a team that would compete for a NCAA bid. Instead, injuries and off-court issues led to a losing season that included 6 sub-100 kenpom losses and three losing streaks of 3+ games. This led to massive roster upheaval in the offseason. Leading scorer Bennie Boatwright and starting wing Shaqquan Aaron graduated. Star freshman Kevin Porter left for the NBA Draft. Starting point guard Derryck Thornton led a cascade of transfers that also included bench players Jordan Usher, J'Raan Brooks, and Victor Uyaelunmo.

Matthews and Rakocevic are proven Pac-12 players that will lead the new-look Trojans. Weaver got some run at the point last year and will hope to improve on a dismal offensive efficiency rating. Utomi (Akron) and fellow grad transfer Quentin Adlesh (Columbia) were both double digit scorers for their mid-major programs and will add scoring and three-point shooting options. In addition to the returning starters and grad transfers, USC has an injection of young talent coming in as well. The biggest name is 5-star recruit Isaiah Mobley. He is not only the centerpiece of a top-10 recruiting class that includes another 5-star (6'8" F Onyeka Okongwu) but also the older brother of the top-ranked recruit in 2020, Evan Mobley, who will join the Trojans next season.

Under Andy Enfield, USC runs what they call an attacking man-to-man offense. They want to spread teams out to the arc and attack the interior using their length and athleticism in isolation. Enfield's teams have never been ranked lower than #67 in offensive average possession length, so their intent is to get to the rim before the defense is able to get set. The Trojans don't shoot a ton of threes, but when they do they do so efficiently. Expect lots of drives inside and when they kick it out the shooters to knock down shots. USC doesn't turn it over often (top-50 TO% each of the past 3 years). On the other end, USC will be looking to find a defensive identity. Enfield uses both man and zone defenses and numerous injuries led to a lack of identity last year. They will try to challenge every shot and do so without fouling, but even in his most successful seasons Enfield has never had a defensive efficiency rating better than #80 in the nation. They win games on the offensive end.

USC has a lot of intriguing pieces, but getting them to fit together will be a challenge. There's no proven point guard and while USC has plenty of size, how they play together will be a question mark. Their raw talent will earn them wins but they are projected almost across the board as a middle of the pack Pac-12 team. If it all comes together, they could challenge for an at-large bid, but while they will almost certainly win their first round Advocare matchup with Fairfield, this is a team that Marquette should beat.

Marquette Connection: Marquette has only played USC once in program history, but it was chock full of inter-program coaching ties. The two teams met in 2012 in the final game of the Maui Invitational. What stands out about that game is that USC was also coached at the time by former Marquette coach Kevin O'Neill. O'Neill wasn't the only former Marquette connection on the sidelines that day. Marquette's all-time assists leader, Tony Miller, was one of the O'Neill's assistant coaches. Jamil Wilson led the way for Marquette with 19 points and 6 rebounds as MU claimed a 72-64 win. It was also the last chance Marquette had to see O'Neill, as he would be fired less than 2 months later. Marquette dealt USC their second loss of the season en route to a 7-10 start that saw him fired mid-season. I would love to say that future USC and Marquette wing Katin Reinhardt was on the bench that day, but he didn't arrive at USC until 6 months after this game was played.

Davidson Preview

Davidson Wildcats
November 28, HP Field House, Orlando, FL

Coach: Bob McKillop (578-350)
3-Year NCAA Rank Average: 70.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 71.0
2019-20 T-Rank Projection: 52

Projected Starters: PG Jon Axel Gudmundsson (6'5" Sr), SG Kellan Grady (6'5" Jr), SF Luke Frampton (6'5" RS So), PF KiShawn Pritchett (6'6" Sr), C Luka Brajkovic (6'10" So)

Last year had to be a disappointment for Davidson fans. They returned the dynamic backcourt duo of Gudmundsson and Grady, both of whom were at least on NBA radars the year before. They had a ton of young talent, but after an 8-1 start, lost their last three meaningful non-conference games to Temple, Wake Forest, and North Carolina. They finished second in the A-10, including being one of two teams to knock of regular season champs VCU, and when early conference tournament upsets of VCU & Dayton left them the only top-100 (per Pomeroy) team in the semifinals, a NCAA bid seemed within grasp. Then they got lambasted by a mediocre St. Louis team and went to the NIT instead, where they squandered a 9-point second half home lead to fall in the first round to Lipscomb.

The good news is that after testing the waters, Gudmundsson and Grady are back. Along with Frampton, they form the most dangerous offensive backcourt in the A-10. All five starters are back, as is the only other player to average double-digit minutes in SG Carter Collins. The A-10 looks to have three NCAA caliber teams this year, and this is definitely one of them. The Wildcats will be tested again, with games against Auburn, Vanderbilt, Nevada, Wake Forest, and Loyola-Chicago in addition to the three Orlando games. The difference this year is that, according to T-Rank, they are pick-em or better in all of those games. In the A-10, they play VCU and Dayton just once each with both games at home. They are only projected as more than a 1-point underdog in 2 of their games: Marquette and at Rhode Island. This is a team that is going to win 20+ games, has a legit shot at winning their conference, and should be at least in the mix for an at-large berth come Selection Sunday.

Bob McKillop has had 18 straight winning seasons at Davidson, including 13 campaigns with 20+ wins in that span. The main reason is because of his dynamic offense. His teams are incredibly adept at running the break, running ball screens, shooting, and making good decisions. Everyone is involved, everyone can pass, everyone can shoot, and they take a LOT of threes (18 straight years in the top-65 of 3PFGA%). Davidson is also a team that won't beat themselves. They don't turn the ball over much, they don't expose themselves to fast-breaks by overcommitting on the offensive glass, and on the other end, they limit second chances. What's impressive about the last bit is that in the past two years, McKillop has taken advantage of his long guards by moving more to a 2-3 zone. The length of Gudmundsson and Grady bothers shooters on the perimeter and unlike traditional zone teams, they have been able to limit offensive rebounds. For comparison, the past two years Davidson has been top-35 each season in defensive rebounding percentage. The most notable zone in the country, Syracuse, has never been ranked better than #131 in the past 23 years.

I'll be honest, when I saw Davidson come up for Orlando, I shuddered. Their creative, well-schooled offense makes them an incredibly tough defensive matchup, and without the Hausers, shooting over their zone will be a challenge for Marquette. Davidson is a team that, like Belmont or Syracuse, are simply very difficult to match up with because what they do is unlike what anyone else does. The loser of this game will also likely draw a second-round match with Fairfield, which is by far the weakest opponent in Orlando, and also miss out on the chance to make a statement against preseason top-10 Maryland. Because of the importance of neutral court games and the implications on the schedule, this is unquestionably the most important non-conference game on the schedule, on par with the 2017 VCU game and 2012 Butler game, both played in Maui.

Marquette Connection: Anyone that listens to the Real Chilly Podcast knows the call from their introductory music. "Here we go, 5 seconds left, Marquette down by 1, trying to avoid the upset. Blue with the drive, the left hand, IT'S GOOD! 1 second to play, Vander Blue has put Marquette in front by 1!" Any Marquette fan whose allegiance goes back more than 5 years was likely jumping and dancing like an overcaffeinated idiot just like I was at BBC on the East Side of Milwaukee. Marquette finished the game on an 11-4 run. While some called it a choke, Davidson's 4 possessions before Blue's layup featured 1.200 points per possession, 75% free throw shooting, 100 eFG%, and just one turnover. They didn't choke. It was Marquette scoring a ridiculous 2.750 ppp, going 3/3 beyond the arc after starting the game 1/12, and having a 175 eFG% in the final minute of the game. Blue stole the final inbound to seal the improbable triumph. Marquette went on to follow that win with victories over Butler and Miami en route to the Elite 8. It all started with that Davidson game. If you never saw it or just want a reminder, you can get your goosebumps here.