"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Wednesday, March 07, 2012

S-Curve: March 7 Update

So far, no bids have been stolen. That bodes well for teams like Seton Hall and USF, who are right on the edge of the bubble. Over the next few days, however, that could change. The four teams at the bottom (Xavier, SHU, Northwestern, USF) probably all need at least 1, more likely 2 wins to punch their ticket. Seton Hall got one, and if they can upset Louisville and follow it with at least a competitive game against Marquette, they should be in. Sneaking in behind them is Tennessee, who has some great wins (and bad losses) and somehow managed the 2-seed in the SEC tourney. One or two wins would likely see them jump into the tournament. Here's the current S-Curve:


First Four Out: Tennessee, St. Joseph's, Dayton, Miami
Next Four Out: Iona, Mississippi, Drexel, Oral Roberts

In addition to the S-Curve, I decided to go back to a bracket to see how things might shake out. There are a lot of complications right now, such as the difficulty of juggling the 3 Big East teams and 4 Big Ten teams that reside on the top 3 lines. And from a competitive balance standpoint, it was also tough. I definitely feel the West Regional is the softest of the three, but in order to correctly balance leagues, it pretty much had to be that way.


For Marquette, I think it would be manageable, but tough. Akron they should handle fairly easily, but both Memphis and Texas have a lot of talent. In the Sweet 16, Ohio State can be great when on their game, but also sometimes just don't look in synch. The real fear is Kansas looming in the Elite Eight. I'm sure most of Warrior nation would be hoping to see anyone but them (VCU?) at that point.

The Big East again leads the way with ten bids, with USF the last team in the field. The Big Ten follows with 7, and their own Northwestern is second last in, playing USF in the second Play-In game. And try as I might, I just couldn't justify putting Iona, Drexel, or Oral Roberts in the field. Their records are great, but at the end of the day, you have to beat someone. When I look at teams like Tennessee, St. Joe's, Dayton, and Miami being left out, all of whom have some fantastic wins, I just don't see any way you can include teams that really didn't play anyone.


todd said...

Last week you could not justify the Pac-10/12 with two teams...now this week you have 2 in...what changed?

Alan Bykowski said...

In response, Washington moved into first place in the league. I think Cal is in regardless. Washington took the auto-bid spot by finishing ahead of them in the regular season. With UW's loss yesterday, the Pac-12 goes back to 1 bid. If Cal loses, that will change. The Bears and the auto-bid deserve to dance. Right now, I expect that will be the same team.